Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Putting a price on Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, Michael Bourn and the other top free agents - ESPN

I don’t usually link to articles behind a pay way, but this is a really good ESPN Insider article written by Jim Bowden with realistic free agency estimates for the top 50 free agents.

The top five projections:
1) Josh Hamilton - 5/115
2) Zack Greinke - 6/117
3) Michael Bourn - 5/75
4) B.J. Upton - 5/70
5) Anibal Sanchez - 4/56

Jim Furtado Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:43 PM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agency

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. depletion Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:15 PM (#4295667)
I didn't read the article, unfortunately, but I'm surprised to see more years for Greinke than for Hamilton. 6 year deals for starters are rare. Johan Santana got one and, while he performed well for some of the contract, he's been injury prone lately.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:42 PM (#4295748)
I think Sanchez is going to do a lot better than that but otherwise those look about right. Bourn I find a hard one to put a value on ... as I mentioned in another thread, I just can't get over the fact that he's actually turned out to be a good player.

On Sanchez:

ZG 2010-12: 604 IP, 8.7/2.3 K/BB, 106 ERA+
AS 2010-12: 587 IP, 8.1/2.8 K/BB, 109 ERA+

That just doesn't look like a case where one guy gets 6/$117 and the other 4/$56. They'll both be 29. Greinke has the much longer track record of durability and of course the CYA so it makes sense he'd get a good bit more. But if Greinke gets 6/$117, the loser for Greinke is gonna take Sanchez at something like 5/$80 (AJ Burnett money) or 4/$65. Or I could see that some team will decide they don't want to get bogged down in the Greinke bidding war and make Sanchez an early offer they know he'll take so they can move onto other stuff.
   3. bookbook Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:00 PM (#4295798)
On the one hand, these projections feel very reasonable. On the other hand, I'd be very happy if my team took of those players at those dollars. It's been years since that's been true of the top five to ten free agents. Add 20% across the board.
   4. shoewizard Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:25 AM (#4296527)
2010-2012

Greinke: ERA- 96, Fip- 79, xFIP- 78, fWAR 14.2, 61.4 Mil value
Sanchez: ERA- 93, FIP- 85, xFIP- 92, fWAR 12.0, 51.6 Mil value
   5. Walt Davis Posted: November 07, 2012 at 06:54 AM (#4296641)
Not that I care very much but I'm curious why Greinke's xFIP is so much better. Sanchez has had a league average HR/FB rate while Greinke's has been below average. Greinke's a bit more of a GB pitcher but it's not extreme the last 3 years. If anybody was gonna get dinged between FIP and xFIP, I'd have guessed it was Greinke.

But the money difference the last 3 years has been a bit over $3M a year which makes me a freaking genius!

EDIT: in case it's not obvious, I think that any team that can get Sanchez for 4/$56 and doesn't should have their children taken away.
   6. Bhaakon Posted: November 08, 2012 at 02:28 AM (#4297683)
xFIP- is league and park adjusted, so that's the likely cause.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Eugene Freedman
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogMark Simon on Twitter: "Michael Conforto and Gregory Polanco top the hard-hit rate leaderboard. Where does your favorite rank? Leaderboard-- https://t.co/uS0VL2gnyI"
(1 - 8:25am, May 03)
Last: The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott)

NewsblogYankees GM: ‘We urgently need to stop the bleeding’ | New York Post
(3 - 8:25am, May 03)
Last: bbmck

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 5-3-16
(1 - 8:23am, May 03)
Last: The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott)

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 5-3-2016
(2 - 8:16am, May 03)
Last: There's a bustle in Misirlou's hedgerow

NewsblogFacts and fiction from the first month of the MLB season | FOX Sports
(13 - 8:12am, May 03)
Last: scarymonsters85

NewsblogOT: Wrestling Thread November 2014
(1534 - 8:06am, May 03)
Last: NJ in DC (Now with Wife and Fetus!)

Sox TherapyThree Questions: May 2016
(14 - 8:02am, May 03)
Last: Dale Sams

NewsblogThe Braves Play Taxpayers Better Than They Play Baseball
(14 - 8:00am, May 03)
Last: Bitter Mouse, Space Tyrant

NewsblogOTP 2016 May 2: The Anti-Moneyball Election
(328 - 7:51am, May 03)
Last: Bitter Mouse, Space Tyrant

NewsblogOT: NBA Playoffs Thread 2016
(1028 - 7:48am, May 03)
Last: RollingWave

NewsblogThe last video of Babe Ruth playing in the major leagues, IN COLOR
(11 - 6:59am, May 03)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogVin Scully Talks Beards For Five Minutes
(1 - 6:44am, May 03)
Last: Leroy Kincaid

Newsblog10 Degrees: Is a juiced ball causing MLB's large home run spike? - Yahoo Sports
(45 - 3:47am, May 03)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogTim Lincecum’s showcase set, and Giants will be there - San Francisco Chronicle
(12 - 3:12am, May 03)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogPablo Sandoval to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
(5 - 2:48am, May 03)
Last: Walt Davis

Page rendered in 0.1587 seconds
47 querie(s) executed