Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Putting a price on Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, Michael Bourn and the other top free agents - ESPN

I don’t usually link to articles behind a pay way, but this is a really good ESPN Insider article written by Jim Bowden with realistic free agency estimates for the top 50 free agents.

The top five projections:
1) Josh Hamilton - 5/115
2) Zack Greinke - 6/117
3) Michael Bourn - 5/75
4) B.J. Upton - 5/70
5) Anibal Sanchez - 4/56

Jim Furtado Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:43 PM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agency

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. depletion Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:15 PM (#4295667)
I didn't read the article, unfortunately, but I'm surprised to see more years for Greinke than for Hamilton. 6 year deals for starters are rare. Johan Santana got one and, while he performed well for some of the contract, he's been injury prone lately.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:42 PM (#4295748)
I think Sanchez is going to do a lot better than that but otherwise those look about right. Bourn I find a hard one to put a value on ... as I mentioned in another thread, I just can't get over the fact that he's actually turned out to be a good player.

On Sanchez:

ZG 2010-12: 604 IP, 8.7/2.3 K/BB, 106 ERA+
AS 2010-12: 587 IP, 8.1/2.8 K/BB, 109 ERA+

That just doesn't look like a case where one guy gets 6/$117 and the other 4/$56. They'll both be 29. Greinke has the much longer track record of durability and of course the CYA so it makes sense he'd get a good bit more. But if Greinke gets 6/$117, the loser for Greinke is gonna take Sanchez at something like 5/$80 (AJ Burnett money) or 4/$65. Or I could see that some team will decide they don't want to get bogged down in the Greinke bidding war and make Sanchez an early offer they know he'll take so they can move onto other stuff.
   3. bookbook Posted: November 07, 2012 at 12:00 AM (#4295798)
On the one hand, these projections feel very reasonable. On the other hand, I'd be very happy if my team took of those players at those dollars. It's been years since that's been true of the top five to ten free agents. Add 20% across the board.
   4. Shoebo Posted: November 07, 2012 at 03:25 AM (#4296527)
2010-2012

Greinke: ERA- 96, Fip- 79, xFIP- 78, fWAR 14.2, 61.4 Mil value
Sanchez: ERA- 93, FIP- 85, xFIP- 92, fWAR 12.0, 51.6 Mil value
   5. Walt Davis Posted: November 07, 2012 at 07:54 AM (#4296641)
Not that I care very much but I'm curious why Greinke's xFIP is so much better. Sanchez has had a league average HR/FB rate while Greinke's has been below average. Greinke's a bit more of a GB pitcher but it's not extreme the last 3 years. If anybody was gonna get dinged between FIP and xFIP, I'd have guessed it was Greinke.

But the money difference the last 3 years has been a bit over $3M a year which makes me a freaking genius!

EDIT: in case it's not obvious, I think that any team that can get Sanchez for 4/$56 and doesn't should have their children taken away.
   6. Bhaakon Posted: November 08, 2012 at 03:28 AM (#4297683)
xFIP- is league and park adjusted, so that's the likely cause.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Backlasher
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread March, 2014
(942 - 11:55am, Apr 20)
Last: I am going to be Frank

NewsblogTim Federowicz has rough night behind the plate - True Blue LA
(6 - 11:52am, Apr 20)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

NewsblogJohn Torres: Baseball must bag sickening farewell tours
(13 - 11:51am, Apr 20)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

NewsblogOMNICHATTER for April 20, 2014
(1 - 11:48am, Apr 20)
Last: Rickey! In a van on 95 south...

NewsblogRB: Carlos Beltran: more of a center fielder than Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb or Duke Snider. So what?
(43 - 11:46am, Apr 20)
Last: BDC

NewsblogA’s Jed Lowrie “flabbergasted” by Astros’ response to bunt
(18 - 11:43am, Apr 20)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogOT: The NHL is finally back thread, part 2
(155 - 11:31am, Apr 20)
Last: zack

NewsblogPirates Acquire Ike Davis From Mets
(42 - 11:19am, Apr 20)
Last: formerly dp

NewsblogRaissman: After cheating scandal, former Mets GM Steve Phillips back calling the shots
(2 - 11:11am, Apr 20)
Last: spike

NewsblogDesign Room: Top 10 Logos in MLB History.
(79 - 11:05am, Apr 20)
Last: Nats-Homer-in-DC

NewsblogDoug Glanville: I Was Racially Profiled in My Own Driveway
(369 - 10:54am, Apr 20)
Last: CrosbyBird

NewsblogChase Utley is the hottest hitter in baseball and has a shot at .400
(64 - 10:51am, Apr 20)
Last: GregD

NewsblogOTP April 2014: BurstNET Sued for Not Making Equipment Lease Payments
(1743 - 10:49am, Apr 20)
Last: Morty Causa

NewsblogDaniel Bryan's 'YES!' chant has spread to the Pirates' dugout
(101 - 10:35am, Apr 20)
Last: Infinite Joost (Voxter)

NewsblogBryce Harper benched for 'lack of hustle' despite quad injury
(66 - 9:45am, Apr 20)
Last: The Id of SugarBear Blanks

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

 

Page rendered in 0.1777 seconds
54 querie(s) executed