Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Putting a price on Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, Michael Bourn and the other top free agents - ESPN

I don’t usually link to articles behind a pay way, but this is a really good ESPN Insider article written by Jim Bowden with realistic free agency estimates for the top 50 free agents.

The top five projections:
1) Josh Hamilton - 5/115
2) Zack Greinke - 6/117
3) Michael Bourn - 5/75
4) B.J. Upton - 5/70
5) Anibal Sanchez - 4/56

Jim Furtado Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:43 PM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agency

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. depletion Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:15 PM (#4295667)
I didn't read the article, unfortunately, but I'm surprised to see more years for Greinke than for Hamilton. 6 year deals for starters are rare. Johan Santana got one and, while he performed well for some of the contract, he's been injury prone lately.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:42 PM (#4295748)
I think Sanchez is going to do a lot better than that but otherwise those look about right. Bourn I find a hard one to put a value on ... as I mentioned in another thread, I just can't get over the fact that he's actually turned out to be a good player.

On Sanchez:

ZG 2010-12: 604 IP, 8.7/2.3 K/BB, 106 ERA+
AS 2010-12: 587 IP, 8.1/2.8 K/BB, 109 ERA+

That just doesn't look like a case where one guy gets 6/$117 and the other 4/$56. They'll both be 29. Greinke has the much longer track record of durability and of course the CYA so it makes sense he'd get a good bit more. But if Greinke gets 6/$117, the loser for Greinke is gonna take Sanchez at something like 5/$80 (AJ Burnett money) or 4/$65. Or I could see that some team will decide they don't want to get bogged down in the Greinke bidding war and make Sanchez an early offer they know he'll take so they can move onto other stuff.
   3. bookbook Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:00 PM (#4295798)
On the one hand, these projections feel very reasonable. On the other hand, I'd be very happy if my team took of those players at those dollars. It's been years since that's been true of the top five to ten free agents. Add 20% across the board.
   4. shoewizard Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:25 AM (#4296527)
2010-2012

Greinke: ERA- 96, Fip- 79, xFIP- 78, fWAR 14.2, 61.4 Mil value
Sanchez: ERA- 93, FIP- 85, xFIP- 92, fWAR 12.0, 51.6 Mil value
   5. Walt Davis Posted: November 07, 2012 at 06:54 AM (#4296641)
Not that I care very much but I'm curious why Greinke's xFIP is so much better. Sanchez has had a league average HR/FB rate while Greinke's has been below average. Greinke's a bit more of a GB pitcher but it's not extreme the last 3 years. If anybody was gonna get dinged between FIP and xFIP, I'd have guessed it was Greinke.

But the money difference the last 3 years has been a bit over $3M a year which makes me a freaking genius!

EDIT: in case it's not obvious, I think that any team that can get Sanchez for 4/$56 and doesn't should have their children taken away.
   6. Bhaakon Posted: November 08, 2012 at 02:28 AM (#4297683)
xFIP- is league and park adjusted, so that's the likely cause.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Vegas Watch
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

Newsblogred sox - The Hanley Effect has rippled through Red Sox roster, left destruction in wake - WEEI | John Tomase
(34 - 3:10am, Aug 28)
Last: Sweatpants

NewsblogOTP - August 2015: Meet the … Baseball Owner Funding the 2016 Campaign ...
(4552 - 2:41am, Aug 28)
Last: madvillain

NewsblogMonth is cold one for Trout
(25 - 1:51am, Aug 28)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 8-27-15
(134 - 1:34am, Aug 28)
Last: boteman asks Where's My Ring?

NewsblogPablo Sandoval has improved defensively - The Boston Globe
(18 - 1:17am, Aug 28)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogSB Nation: Pirates outfielder may have made the most chill out in MLB history
(29 - 12:32am, Aug 28)
Last: bobm

NewsblogThe Pyramid Rating System: JAWS on a Career Scale – The Hardball Times
(34 - 12:03am, Aug 28)
Last: Ziggy

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - August 2015
(142 - 11:55pm, Aug 27)
Last: CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck

NewsblogJustin Verlander barely misses third gem as Tigers beat Angels, 5-0 - LA Times
(16 - 11:30pm, Aug 27)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogThe Website MLB Couldn’t Buy
(17 - 10:46pm, Aug 27)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogSchoenfield: Trying to figure out Don Mattingly and the Dodgers
(13 - 10:42pm, Aug 27)
Last: Dog on the sidewalk

NewsblogOT: Soccer August 2015
(479 - 9:49pm, Aug 27)
Last: Baldrick

NewsblogAnd Now, Curt Schilling With Some Cool Thoughts About Muslims And Nazis
(122 - 9:17pm, Aug 27)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogBlurry line between fantasy sites
(64 - 8:25pm, Aug 27)
Last: Shibal

NewsblogFivethirtyeight: The Happiest And Saddest Fans In Baseball
(21 - 5:23pm, Aug 27)
Last: theboyqueen

Page rendered in 0.1805 seconds
48 querie(s) executed