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Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Putting a price on Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, Michael Bourn and the other top free agents - ESPN

I don’t usually link to articles behind a pay way, but this is a really good ESPN Insider article written by Jim Bowden with realistic free agency estimates for the top 50 free agents.

The top five projections:
1) Josh Hamilton - 5/115
2) Zack Greinke - 6/117
3) Michael Bourn - 5/75
4) B.J. Upton - 5/70
5) Anibal Sanchez - 4/56

Jim Furtado Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:43 PM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agency

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   1. depletion Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:15 PM (#4295667)
I didn't read the article, unfortunately, but I'm surprised to see more years for Greinke than for Hamilton. 6 year deals for starters are rare. Johan Santana got one and, while he performed well for some of the contract, he's been injury prone lately.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:42 PM (#4295748)
I think Sanchez is going to do a lot better than that but otherwise those look about right. Bourn I find a hard one to put a value on ... as I mentioned in another thread, I just can't get over the fact that he's actually turned out to be a good player.

On Sanchez:

ZG 2010-12: 604 IP, 8.7/2.3 K/BB, 106 ERA+
AS 2010-12: 587 IP, 8.1/2.8 K/BB, 109 ERA+

That just doesn't look like a case where one guy gets 6/$117 and the other 4/$56. They'll both be 29. Greinke has the much longer track record of durability and of course the CYA so it makes sense he'd get a good bit more. But if Greinke gets 6/$117, the loser for Greinke is gonna take Sanchez at something like 5/$80 (AJ Burnett money) or 4/$65. Or I could see that some team will decide they don't want to get bogged down in the Greinke bidding war and make Sanchez an early offer they know he'll take so they can move onto other stuff.
   3. bookbook Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:00 PM (#4295798)
On the one hand, these projections feel very reasonable. On the other hand, I'd be very happy if my team took of those players at those dollars. It's been years since that's been true of the top five to ten free agents. Add 20% across the board.
   4. shoewizard Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:25 AM (#4296527)

Greinke: ERA- 96, Fip- 79, xFIP- 78, fWAR 14.2, 61.4 Mil value
Sanchez: ERA- 93, FIP- 85, xFIP- 92, fWAR 12.0, 51.6 Mil value
   5. Walt Davis Posted: November 07, 2012 at 06:54 AM (#4296641)
Not that I care very much but I'm curious why Greinke's xFIP is so much better. Sanchez has had a league average HR/FB rate while Greinke's has been below average. Greinke's a bit more of a GB pitcher but it's not extreme the last 3 years. If anybody was gonna get dinged between FIP and xFIP, I'd have guessed it was Greinke.

But the money difference the last 3 years has been a bit over $3M a year which makes me a freaking genius!

EDIT: in case it's not obvious, I think that any team that can get Sanchez for 4/$56 and doesn't should have their children taken away.
   6. Bhaakon Posted: November 08, 2012 at 02:28 AM (#4297683)
xFIP- is league and park adjusted, so that's the likely cause.

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