Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Putting a price on Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, Michael Bourn and the other top free agents - ESPN

I don’t usually link to articles behind a pay way, but this is a really good ESPN Insider article written by Jim Bowden with realistic free agency estimates for the top 50 free agents.

The top five projections:
1) Josh Hamilton - 5/115
2) Zack Greinke - 6/117
3) Michael Bourn - 5/75
4) B.J. Upton - 5/70
5) Anibal Sanchez - 4/56

Jim Furtado Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:43 PM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agency

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. depletion Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:15 PM (#4295667)
I didn't read the article, unfortunately, but I'm surprised to see more years for Greinke than for Hamilton. 6 year deals for starters are rare. Johan Santana got one and, while he performed well for some of the contract, he's been injury prone lately.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:42 PM (#4295748)
I think Sanchez is going to do a lot better than that but otherwise those look about right. Bourn I find a hard one to put a value on ... as I mentioned in another thread, I just can't get over the fact that he's actually turned out to be a good player.

On Sanchez:

ZG 2010-12: 604 IP, 8.7/2.3 K/BB, 106 ERA+
AS 2010-12: 587 IP, 8.1/2.8 K/BB, 109 ERA+

That just doesn't look like a case where one guy gets 6/$117 and the other 4/$56. They'll both be 29. Greinke has the much longer track record of durability and of course the CYA so it makes sense he'd get a good bit more. But if Greinke gets 6/$117, the loser for Greinke is gonna take Sanchez at something like 5/$80 (AJ Burnett money) or 4/$65. Or I could see that some team will decide they don't want to get bogged down in the Greinke bidding war and make Sanchez an early offer they know he'll take so they can move onto other stuff.
   3. bookbook Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:00 PM (#4295798)
On the one hand, these projections feel very reasonable. On the other hand, I'd be very happy if my team took of those players at those dollars. It's been years since that's been true of the top five to ten free agents. Add 20% across the board.
   4. shoewizard Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:25 AM (#4296527)
2010-2012

Greinke: ERA- 96, Fip- 79, xFIP- 78, fWAR 14.2, 61.4 Mil value
Sanchez: ERA- 93, FIP- 85, xFIP- 92, fWAR 12.0, 51.6 Mil value
   5. Walt Davis Posted: November 07, 2012 at 06:54 AM (#4296641)
Not that I care very much but I'm curious why Greinke's xFIP is so much better. Sanchez has had a league average HR/FB rate while Greinke's has been below average. Greinke's a bit more of a GB pitcher but it's not extreme the last 3 years. If anybody was gonna get dinged between FIP and xFIP, I'd have guessed it was Greinke.

But the money difference the last 3 years has been a bit over $3M a year which makes me a freaking genius!

EDIT: in case it's not obvious, I think that any team that can get Sanchez for 4/$56 and doesn't should have their children taken away.
   6. Bhaakon Posted: November 08, 2012 at 02:28 AM (#4297683)
xFIP- is league and park adjusted, so that's the likely cause.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
A triple short of the cycle
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogDodgers' Dave Roberts keeps Yasiel Puig on bench after baserunning blunder - LA Times
(13 - 8:02pm, Sep 25)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogOTP 25 September 2017: CC Sabathia won’t visit the White House if the Yankees win the World Series
(347 - 8:01pm, Sep 25)
Last: Greg K

Newsblog24 years ago, Nolan Ryan pitched in his final game - Houston Chronicle
(20 - 7:56pm, Sep 25)
Last: simon bedford

NewsblogJacob deGrom reaches significant 200-inning plateau for first time in career
(6 - 7:56pm, Sep 25)
Last: Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66)

Gonfalon Cubs15 To Go
(102 - 7:49pm, Sep 25)
Last: Andere Richtingen

NewsblogOMNICHATTER is #blessed #justsaying #winning #nofilter, for September 25, 2017
(41 - 7:48pm, Sep 25)
Last: Bote Man

NewsblogOT-NBA off season thread
(2507 - 7:41pm, Sep 25)
Last: TFTIO, for one, is sick and tired of winning

NewsblogOlney: Derek Jeter must make impossible decision about Giancarlo Stanton's future - Buster Olney Blog- ESPN
(59 - 7:39pm, Sep 25)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-25-2017
(6 - 7:19pm, Sep 25)
Last: AndrewJ

NewsblogThe case for Jose Altuve as the American League MVP, and a look at the rest of the contenders
(63 - 7:17pm, Sep 25)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogThe Braves in 2018: Snitker could return, but much will change | Mark Bradley blog
(2 - 7:07pm, Sep 25)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogTaking Back the Ballparks - Tampa Bay Rays
(24 - 7:06pm, Sep 25)
Last: Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com

NewsblogDiamondbacks Clinch Playoff Berth
(4 - 7:04pm, Sep 25)
Last: shoewizard

NewsblogAngels come from behind to beat Astros, snap losing streak at 6
(11 - 6:11pm, Sep 25)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogOT Gaming: October 2015
(681 - 4:43pm, Sep 25)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

Page rendered in 0.1487 seconds
47 querie(s) executed