Josh Hamilton will get the MVP

- Tougher position

- Similar production

- The feel good story

- The almighty RBI lead

Now if only the rest of the White Sox wouldn’t talk about it…

God forbid that anyone would want to talk about a great baseball story when they could be talking about Charlie Zink, or Manny Ramirez's toilet habits.

It wouldn't be highway robbery if either of those guys win it...except maybe w.r.t. A-Rod.

The almighty RBI lead

True, but Quentin leads in <strike>the standings</strike> playing on a team with a better pitching staff. Seems like a close contest to me...I'm actually kind of surprised how far ahead of Hamilton Quentin is in OPS+.

True, but Quentin leads in the standings playing on a team with a better pitching staff. Seems like a close contest to me...I'm actually kind of surprised how far ahead of Hamilton Quentin is in OPS+.

I think the difference is that Hamilton suffers a decrease in power when facing lefties:

Hamilton

vs RHP .305 .374 .579
vs LHP .291 .348 .468

Quentin

vs RHP .307 .398 .582
vs LHP .256 .386 .598

Whether this is just how hamilton is or is due to the fact he has only faced a leftie 259 times (the reds pretty much hid him from lefties) is something that only time will tell.

There is still a month left, it might make the decision easier.

Right now Quentin looks like more of an MVP to me.

Quentin is so good that, if he says he has no interest in MVP talk, everybody better stop talking about the MVP.

His numbers are great, and he doesn’t pad them. He gets his hits when they matter.’’

Like HR #35 yesterday to get that all important 7th run added to the lead.

Like HR #35 yesterday to get that all important 7th run added to the lead.

That one, not so much. But he does lead the AL in WPA, which would seem to support the idea that "[h]e gets his hits when they matter." The top five:

Quentin (4.00)
Morneau (3.95)
Manny (3.94)
Hamilton (3.92)
Mauer (3.71)

Quentin is .06 ahead of the next best OF (and point .08 ahead of the next best OF currently in the AL in WPA).

Mauer is 3.92(!!!) ahead of the next highest C in the AL (or 1.56 ahead of the next best C in the entire majors).

If you're going to use WPA or positional adjustments at all, you better give it to Mauer.

Well of course his WPA is high, he's a really good player. It's not that the best players are also the clutchest. It's that the best players are the best players and come through in the most situations.

Will, the 2nd highest WPA for an AL catcher is negative??

So far, Hamilton is having a non-spectacular 2nd half of the season. He is on my sadly plummeting fantasy team so I know. Starting tomorrow I'm going to give him some time off so he will probably improve mightily. But if he doesn't I don't think he'll get the MVP. Quentin is more consistent and he is making a major contribution to a contending team. But there is always Longoria!

If you're going to use WPA or positional adjustments at all, you better give it to Mauer.

Mauer already had his MVP taken by Morneau. So, now if Mauer is succeeding it's because Morneau was there for "protection". Besides, Mauer isn't Russell Martin, and every sportswriter declared Russell Martin best catcher ever earlier this season.

Quentin and Hamilton are both behind A-Rod and Kinsler in VORP (although with Kinsler out, they'll probably pass him) and Quentin is 8 ahead of Hamilton. If Hamilton's going to win the award, he's got to start getting RBI's again. That's the only way he keeps ahead. If Quentin closes that gap and is on a division winner, he'll walk away with it.

That's good, because I have no interest in talking about Quentin for MVP.

Mauer already had his MVP taken by Morneau. So, now if Mauer is succeeding it's because Morneau was there for "protection". Besides, Mauer isn't Russell Martin, and every sportswriter declared Russell Martin best catcher ever earlier this season.

I could definitely get behind Mauer...a player as good as he should win an MVP at least once in his career.

If the Twins win, I really could see the sportswriters essentially doing what they did when they picked Pudge Rodriguez: going through the list of stars on contending teams, seeing that all the key position players have pretty much the same numbers and then just deciding to pick the best up-the-middle position guy.

If Kinsler misses the rest of the season, he'll definitely win the MVP!

Seriously, it's a weird field, without one or two everyday players dominating, or injuries lessening the cases of some potential frontrunners. Consider:
- A-Rod has missed enough games that his totals won't be impressive, coupled with his unusual unclutchiness this season
- Bradley has missed enough games this season to reduce the HR, RBI and Run totals that voters love, plus he's the DH (never been a DH MVP yet) on a team that isn't contending
- Sizemore is having what may be his best season, but on a losing club and generating no buzz
- The Twins are relying on anomalous clutchiness to somehow contend, and with Morneau and Mauer as their only outstanding players, that leaves the M&M;boys as potential MVP candidates (and potentially taking votes from each other)
- The big strike against Hamilton (assuming he's not fading down the stretch) is that he's playing for a team with no chance; he's got to be considered one of the top MVP candidates right now (even if writers tend to underestimate how hard it is to get that kind of offense from the CF spot)
- Longoria may be the MVP of the Rays, and he's likely the Rookie of the Year, but his numbers (OPS+ of 134), while terrific for a 22-year-old, do not scream league MVP
- Youkilis is the most valuable all-around player on the contending Red Sox, which puts him in it -- and he really is having a great year (clearly better than Drew, who is having a very good year too)
- Quentin doesn't seem like such a ridiculous contender for MVP - a not-terrible fielder, one of the best hitters in the league with a shot at the HR crown, the best position player on a team that's likely headed for the postseason...

This is not to slight anyone on this list, all of whom are having excellent years.

There are some years when a player essentially has the MVP wrapped up by the end of August. This is one of the years when September will undoubtedly decide it.

Sizemore is having what may be his best season, but on a losing club and generating no buzz

.266 BA = not in the running.

One should always be careful to observe the very basic distinction between who will win a given award and who should. Grady Sizemore does not have a snowball's chance in hell of winning the actual BBWAA award, since he is on a last place team and has a crummy batting average, but he has been the best position player in the AL this year, and by a not inconsiderable margin, so has a very good case for deserving the MVP. Quentin may well be the front-runner to win the BBWAA MVP, but his poor defense means that he is really not in the running (as of August 12, Justin Inaz's numbers, which look to me like the best "rolling" overall measure of value, Quentin was having a less valuable season than Scott Rolen, although his good hitting over the last few days has probably put him ahead) for deserving the award.

Obviously everyone knows this distinction at some level; I just think it is worth always been VERY clear which sort of claim you are making, to avoid the incessant miscommunication that sometimes plagues these arguments.

Justin Inaz's numbers, which look to me like the best "rolling" overall measure of value, Quentin was having a less valuable season than Scott Rolen, although his good hitting over the last few days has probably put him ahead) for deserving the award.

If Justin Inaz's system showed that Quentin was less valuable than Rolen, than I have full confidence we shouldn't pay any attention to Justin Inaz's system.

If Justin Inaz's system showed that Quentin was less valuable than Rolen, than I have full confidence we shouldn't pay any attention to Justin Inaz's system.

What, a third baseman with an OPS+ of 100 who's missed 36 of his team's games isn't more valuable than a left fielder with an OPS+ of 153 who's missed 6 of his team's?

I have full confidence we shouldn't pay any attention to Justin Inaz's system.

I have full confidence you weren't paying any attention to defense anyway.

I have full confidence you weren't paying any attention to defense anyway.

Rolen's defense would have to be really valuable if he can make up the difference between his bat and Quentin's despite only playing 3/4ths of the time.

Justin Inaz credits Beltre with 18.9 fielding runs, Rolen with 18.5, Mauer with 0.0.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pfk_WuYpfdux2FC_hs6ROEQ&gid=1

thru august 12.

Quentin -8.1 runs, so Rolen has 26.6 defensive runs on him. according to Justin.

Justin Inaz credits Beltre with 18.9 fielding runs, Rolen with 18.5, Mauer with 0.0.

So, basically, according to Inaz, Scott Rolen is the most valuable defensive player in the American League (by far), at any position.

So, basically, according to Inaz, Scott Rolen is the most valuable defensive player in the American League (by far), at any position.

I would read that as Beltre being the most valuable at that position, narrowly ahead of Rolen. But I agree with your larger point regarding Rolen v. Quentin.

If the Twins win, I really could see the sportswriters essentially doing what they did when they picked Pudge Rodriguez: going through the list of stars on contending teams, seeing that all the key position players have pretty much the same numbers and then just deciding to pick the best up-the-middle position guy.

Derek Jeter disagrees.

So, basically, according to Inaz, Scott Rolen is the most valuable defensive player in the American League (by far), at any position.

Would that be that shocking? It's Scott ####### Rolen.

I would read that as Beltre being the most valuable at that position, narrowly ahead of Rolen.

Beltre's played three hundred more innings at third base than Rolen has, and only has a slight edge in value. What that spreadsheet tells me is that when Scott Rolen is healthy, he contributes more with his glove than any other player on the field, and it's not even close.

So, basically, according to Inaz, Scott Rolen is the most valuable defensive player in the American League (by far), at any position.

If, by "most valuable by far" you mean "third behind Adrian Beltre and Mark Ellis" then yes.

So, basically, according to Inaz, Scott Rolen is the most valuable defensive player in the American League (by far), at any position.

Should that come as any surprise? Rolen's been good for 15-20 runs in the field practically every year for a decade.


And I believe that Mauer number is based on catcher Zone Rating, which encompasses almost none of a catcher's defensive responsibilities. The last time I updated my SB/WP/PB/E spreadsheet, he was second in the AL at +7.7.

Quentin seems like the obvious choice in some ways: the best player and leading RBI man on a surprise contender. But he's a leftfielder hitting .293, which means he's a slugger in the eyes of the BBWAA, but he's not going to hit a huge number of homers, even if he leads the league. In this day and age, I think a pure slugger needs 50 HRs to be in the mix for MVP.

I think that makes it Hamilton, especially after his performance in the home run derby.

Did you notice that four of the guys in Loren's MVP list weren't even in the league last year?

So, basically, according to Inaz, Scott Rolen is the most valuable defensive player in the American League (by far), at any position.

Should that come as any surprise? Rolen's been good for 15-20 runs in the field practically every year for a decade.

Plus, he moved from grass to turf. I thought I remembered Toronto fielders doing exceptionally well for a few years now, partially attributed to the surface. Could be wrong.

Beltre's played three hundred more innings at third base than Rolen has, and only has a slight edge in value. What that spreadsheet tells me is that when Scott Rolen is healthy, he contributes more with his glove than any other player on the field, and it's not even close.

Ok, but that's different than he's been the most valuable defensive player by far. Most talented, sure.

Rolen has the highest defensive VORP. dVORP. so you could claim he is the MVdP.

But he's a leftfielder hitting .293, which means he's a slugger in the eyes of the BBWAA, but he's not going to hit a huge number of homers, even if he leads the league. In this day and age, I think a pure slugger needs 50 HRs to be in the mix for MVP.

I think that makes it Hamilton, especially after his performance in the home run derby.

Hamilton's BA is only .007 higher. Granted, that pushes it up to the magical ".300!" mark, but I think you're trying to draw too-fine distinctions if you're going to say a .293-hitting LF has to hit 50 homers but a .300-hitting CF can get away with only 35-40 home runs.

Hmmm, I was wasting time reading up on how he calculates fielding when everyone else answered first! My one concern about the data is that the SD's do look higher than I thought was typical for fielding stats, but after reading how he calculates it that isn't right. If you regress the fielding stats anyway to have a lower SD, then obviously Quentin pulls ahead of Rolen.

In any case, I picked Rolen as a deliberately extreme example. The more basic point is that there are a heck of a lot of guys heaving better seasons than Carlos Quentin (although his good last few days have probably moved him up a few spots).

Sure, there are guys having better seasons than Carlos Quentin. But be realistic. The voters are, mostly, not using VORP, WARP3, or other valuation systems in determining their MVP voting. They look at things like RBI, AVG and HR first, then maybe OBP and SLG, then Runs and SB in some cases, and finally defense. I think the voters have some understanding that a shortstop is more valuable than a 1B, and take that into account, but HR and RBI and AVG are a powerful lure nonetheless. A HR crown or a RBI crown means a lot. And if Quentin ends up leading the league in HR, he leads the league in HR, even if it takes just 42 or 45 HR to do so.

Similarly, low batting AVG (even with a respectable OBP) creates an uphill battle for the player - he needs to really shine in another category, like HR or RBI, and on a contending team, to overcome that. So, I think the comment above about Sizemore's .266 AVG putting him out of contention is correct (although I think the Indians place in the standings put him out of contention already -- you need to really dominate to win the MVP from a last-place team: see Ripken in 1991, although Baltimore was second-to-last then.) Low AVG will also weigh against Longoria, who is a longshot anyway, although I could see him coming in like 7th or 8th in the MVP voting as the Rays' representative.

People aren't giving Quentin enough credit. There have been players who put up flashy triple crown stats, but aren't really that good offensively, yet still win the MVP (Dawson 87 comes to mind). But Quentin really is having a great year offensively. He is leading the league in runs created (well, excepting Kinsler), and he is in the top two or three in most other categories.

Sizemore is obviously having a better year overall, but there are not a lot of other guys having obviously better seasons, defense included.

Fielding Bible has Quentin -4, Ranked 19th among LF.

Is his defense really that big of a negative drag ? Does anyone here think the fielding bible's +/- system is a legit metric?

To reiterate, I don't think defense makes that big a difference to MVP voters, unless the player is godawful (may have weighed against Manny) or really great (helped Ozzie Smith come close). Quentin seems like the typical not-that-good LF, as opposed to a fielding disaster.

Quentin, Hamilton, etc., are close enough now that the MVP may well come down to the least worst option.

He's not nearly as bad as Carlos Lee, but I would say he's below average. He makes enough plays out there, but he's not graceful. Good arm, though.

Quentin is an average LF, he gets to the balls he should, misplays a good number of tough ones, but has a strong accurate arm. Hardly a butcher, hardly anything to write home about either.

As for that, he's now 3rd in the AL in VORP and it's hard to overstate how much he's meant to a White Sox lineup that finished last in RS in 2007. If the season ended today I think the voters would give it to him, as well as making a fairly strong SABR argument he does well in the traditional measures (team success, counting stats) as well.

Quentin, Hamilton, etc., are close enough now that the MVP may well come down to the least worst option.

There's still some baseball to be played. How the White Sox and Twins fare down the stretch will have a lot of impact on the MVP voting, not to mention how Quentin, Hamilton, et al., fare down the stretch.

Right now, there doesn't appear to be a standout candidate, although there are several (Quentin, Hamilton, Alex Rodriguez, Bradley) who wouldn't be bad picks.

Of course, knowing the MVP voters, they'll probably pick Francisco Rodriguez, just because they HAVE to make a terrible decision.

In any case, I picked Rolen as a deliberately extreme example. The more basic point is that there are a heck of a lot of guys heaving better seasons than Carlos Quentin (although his good last few days have probably moved him up a few spots).

Because we should use the least accurate metrics to decide stuff like who is most valuable. Quentin is very valuable at offense, which is easy to measure and significantly more important than defense. To assume another player can make up a big gap with defense is treating defensive metrics better than they deserve.

It's Quentin or Morneau, depending on how the race plays out. If both teams make it, Quentin takes it, and deservedly so, as the guy is a beast...