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Yes, the Mets are being stingy and all, but it seems to me this particular setting maybe isn't the best context to discuss gripes about whether you'll make $10 million or $13 million next year?
Fair, but it's likely that he was asked about the negotiations.
Posted without comment: Frank Francisco's 2013 salary: 6.5 million.
Well done young padawan.
This is why you don't ask for fair.
That's the problem. It being the Mets, it is NOT Unbelievable. It is all too sadly predictable.
EDIT: Coke to depletion.
Three if you count Bobby Bonilla.
Three if you count Bobby Bonilla.
Four if you count Jason Bay.
But the whole "Wilpons out of cash" argument doesn't really make sense if they can pay him $10 million a year but not $13 million per year.
Quite right. Unless the Mets are going full Astros style, they should have a ton of money to play with for 2014 and 2015.
I mean, I'm not going to rule out the possibility that Wilpon is going to try and turn the Mets into one of the welfare queen teams. But even if the payroll drops to where the A's, Royals, Padres and Astros were last year ($55-60) they will have more than enough money for RA Dickey.
Dickey should take the Mets' front office approach as a sign that he should just move on in 2014. RA's agent should make an announcement in private that Dickey wants to leave, give Alderson a short window for negotiations to change his mind and limit the Mets' options. Throw it back at them!
They are stalling signing the reigning Cy Young in hopes of trading him before giving him a reasonably lengthed extension at well below market value?
You are not familiar with the Mets, are you?
I don't understand why the Mets wouldn't pounce on this. Either they're irrational, or broke, or baseball FO-types really just don't place any value and/or faith in knuckleballers.
orand punched in the face. That is all.I think you guys are overlooking the fact that Dickey is 38 - a full 38, having just turned in October - and has never had a K rate like this before, and has never pitched this many innings before.
The Mets already have him under contract for 2013 for a song - $5 million. They're now supposed to commit $13 million to a 39 year old pitcher and $13 million to a 40 year old pitcher based on a career year at age 37? I don't know... yes, fighting over $6 million seems silly, but at the same time if Dickey has a mediocre year in 2013 - or a bad one - he's not getting $20 million. And it's not exactly outside the realm of possibility that he will regress, never having pitched this well before in his life. So he is in a bind himself, hitting free agency a year too early.
If he just pitches as well and as much as he did in 2010-11, he'd still be worth 2/26, wouldn't he? It's not like his 2012 campaign came out of nowhere. He's been an effective pitcher for three straight years.
But the K rate was virtually unprecedented for him, even if we look at K% instead of K/9. He hadn't done anything even approaching that since 2003.
No pitchers make $30 million per year, to my knowledge, so this is a bit of a strawman.
I'm not seeing this at all. The vast majority of people seem to be expecting the same performance from him. Because of the fact that he's a knuckler and the fact that he throws a unique "hard knuckler" -- even though those two are kind of in conflict because the evidence is that _pure_ knucklers can sustain some late performance, but not _hard_ knucklers, since Dickey is sui generis.
But you're missing - I know you know this but I don't think you're properly factoring it in - that the extension wouldn't start for another year, and Dickey is in something of a bind, making "only" $5 million coming off of a Cy Young season. He's not really in the best position to leverage his 2012.
RA Dickey started the 2010 season in the minors and pitched 60.2 IP in AAA so he threw 235 IP that season.
Nobody is pointing this out because it is stupid. Signing Dickey to an extension requires no actual cash. Signing Wright to an extension required no actual cash and they exhausted no reserves. This isn't the NFL where players get massive signing bonuses because contracts aren't guaranteed and owners have to write a giant check when the deal is signed. The Wright extension won't cost the Mets anything until 2014. The Dickey extension would cost them nothing until 2014. As I recall, the only commitments the Mets have in 2014 are Niese, Wright and change. This is about valuation and allocation of resources, but it has absolutely nothing to do with cash.
Edit: Coke to AJM. I should really read on for a post or so rather than just jumping in to correct something horribly ignorant.
Occam's razor tells us the Wilpon's are simply ####### this up out of sheer stupidity, but they may actually believe they don't have more than $10m to pay Dickey in 2014. Still and all, if you'd ever scrape up another $3m, or offer 2/20 and then tack on a bunch of $1m per year payments, it's for a player like Dickey. Hell, they're not lowballing him because in this market 2/26 is an overpay.
On another hand, maybe this is overblown and the Mets are just being canny negotiators. Why should the Wilpons care if Dickey grumbles a bit if after grumbling he signs for 2/24?
Go pick over someone else's carcass, #######.
He's an excellent pitcher. But he's also 38, and is rather an odd bird in that he didn't do anything before 35, posting a grand total of 0.2 WAR. We should all remember this the next time someone claims that Barry Bonds was the only one who went insane on the league at 35.
Problem: we don't actually know if they're ready and willing to pay him $10 million. They could be lowballing him entirely for the PR benefit of his walking away, rather than being pushed out. Or a trade of some type could still be in the works.
I guess the counter to any objection to this is, 'do you believe the Wilpons wouldn't, if circumstances dictated?'
The Wilpons are notoriously resistant to pressure. Unless Bud has some way of lawfully forcing them out, they won't leave.
You missed on the innings pitched, and you're missing on the fact that a 2/26 extension is based not on his 2012 career year, but on simply coming somewhere his 2010-11 seasons.
edit: cokes all around. Is there no thread immune to the Great Troll?
This would not surprise me. Nothing the Wilpons could do would surprise me. And, in fact, they may not think he's worth it. That seems insane, but it would not surprise me.
Did they really extend Ricciardi?
Not so - Dickey pitched the same number of innings in 2010, minors included.
EDIT: Coke to Russlan
He's an excellent pitcher. But he's also 38, and is rather an odd bird in that he didn't do anything before 35, posting a grand total of 0.2 WAR. We should all remember this the next time someone claims that Barry Bonds was the only one who went insane on the league at 35.
Why does the age worry you so much? Pitchers don't age like hitters. Guys who still have good results at 37, tend to pitch well from 38-40. Look at RJ, Smoltz, Glavine, Maddux, Clemens, Moyer, Kenny Rogers, David Wells, etc.
You are right about this. His leverage is also hurt because he hasn't made a huge fortune already in his career and so presumably the guaranteed big money would appeal to him more than the normal 30-something Cy winner. Earlier in the offseason, I thought it made sense for the Mets to neither trade nor extend Dickey, but that was before seeing the numbers being discussed (allegedly). I would have thought 2/26 sounds like the extension parameters after being suppressed by his lack of leverage. E.G. it appears that the only slightly-younger Dempster will get that deal or better after the last years ERA+ of 110, 81, 124 and "only" 173 innings in the most recent year.
At least on this site, I don't think a single person expects a repeat of 2012 from him.
This whole thing is a mess. Lassus had it right in #26.
I'm not good with the baseball reference play index; is there any way to see if there are many guys who have increased their K rates like Dickey has? He increased it so much that I'd have to think he's going to carry some of that with him next year, even if he's not going to strike out nearly a guy per inning. (Especially since you can get into the anecdotal story of a guy who hasn't been throwing the knuckleball for very long and is still toying around with it. But I'll concede I have no evidence that's why he struck out so many guys. But I do believe he was working up in the zone more with the knuckleball, which is why he allowed fewer groundballs and more HR)
edit: And then, of course, he'll immediately begin a descent into suckitude.
Fair enough. I stand, for all practical purposes, corrected.
And I disagree. I wouldn't realistically expect a pitcher to do from 38-40 what he did from 35-37.
But this is why there's so much uncertainty around Dickey. If this was Pedro Martinez coming off a 3-year run like Dickey just had, you're probably looking at a $20M+/yr extension. But there aren't really "similar" pitchers to model off of.
And I disagree. I wouldn't realistically expect a pitcher to do from 38-40 what he did from 35-37.
He has very low mileage on his arm.
Dickey the last 3 years has a 130 ERA+. His worst season was 208 IP at a 112 ERA+. That's gotta be worth more than $13 million, no?
I was just looking at his rate stats on BBRef, it's pretty crazy. Here are his walks per 9 the last 3 years
2.2, 2.3, 2.1
His HR per 9
0.7, 0.8, 0.9.
his Babip
276, 275, 278
But his K rate is
5.4, 5.8, 8.9
So he basically kept his walk, HR, and BABIP numbers the same, and spiked his K rate by over 3 per 9. That's gotta project pretty well for the next few years, even at his age.
Exactly. If he was 27, he'd be asking for Greinke money.
I suspect Sandy’s player valuations hasn’t adjusted to the world where Zack Greinke gets $147m.
Now, if Dickey gets Bensoned for airing out his grievances, THAT's on the Wilpons.
I think there is a lot of truth to this and that's what worries me a little.
I think that's what's driving us on the "give him an extension already" bandwagon crazy, it's not so much money nor so many years that his failure to fit into any neat category of pitcher is a real handicap. And as stated by others above, if he were coming off his age 27 season and not his age 37 season, he'd be getting 6+ years and 150m dollars.
I can still see the case for trading him. But what they're doing now seems like a huge mistake.
But it's not really accurate to think about it as if they are deciding on a 3/31 contract. They would be deciding on a 2/26 extension a year in advance. I still think it is eminently reasonable, but they are not deciding between 3/31 and nothing, they are deciding between 3/31 or 1/5 (or trading the 1/5).
But, as I keep trying to point out, that's the wrong way to look at it, because you're not signing him now for 3 years. You already have him under contract at 1/5m.
The Mets are thinking, we have Dickey for 1/5m right now, which is basically getting a Cy Young candidate for free, and rather than obligate ourselves to another $26 million for ages 39 and 40, we can just say goodbye to him after the year - or trade him - and make out better overall.
But this is also below market value. It's not like they're paying more than is fair to make up for the 2013 contract.
Charlie Hough was quite good at 38-40. He started tailing off at 41, but was still decent. Phil Neikro also (was 17-4 at 43!).Candiotti was definitely tailing off in terms of IP and ERA.
It really is uncharted waters, predicting R.A.'s next few years.
I still maintain the team just doesn't have the money, despite the lack of commitments for 2014. We know they have run the team on short term loans for parts of the last few seasons. They may have called the credit card company and gotten a polite "no" when asking for an extra $3M for 2014. Look at it this way: at least tickets will be easy to get.
Nonetheless, he has a good distance to fall. If his 2013 is like his 2010-2011, his 2014 ERA+ falls another 20 points, to 100, and his 2015 is 160 innings with an ERA+ of 85, he will still have been worth a 2/26 extension.
There are other reasons beyond performance that I want the Mets to extend Dickey. He's nearly as much the face of the franchise as Wright, at this point. The Mets don't have the minor league players to overcome a low payroll over the next three years. As I mentioned on another thread, something like six significant, distinct things have to go either very right or very wrong for signing Dickey to turn out to be the mistake that keeps the Mets out of the postseason. The downside to signing him is miniscule.
I looked a couple of weeks ago and noticed that even among history's top ten knuckleballers, most don't pitch well at 40 or after, for whatever that's worth, but I didn't look at them specifically in light of who was and who wasn't terrific at 37, obviously a huge factor in any projection.
That said, I fully expect the Mets to #### this up, for Dickey to go elsewhere in 2014, and for the Mets in 2014 and 2015 to piss away $13m on a variety of retreads and relievers who contribute less than a win, collectively, to the team.
Pay the man, ########.
I appreciate the encouragement. What's the address for Cuban?
Maybe he's just trying to put pressure on them to get it done now, but I dunno.
It's sounds like a combination of honesty and leverage and anger.
That's also a big part of the problem here. The Mets aren't going to pay Wright and then 24 league-minimum players. We're going to see a bunch of $3-4M for trash deals, as usual.
It may well be that Dickey is worth $17-18M per on an extension, risk and all, but if that were Dickey's asking price, I don't think I'd criticize the Wilpons for taking a hard line. This is different, because Dickey is asking for basically market value for a league-average pitcher, for two additional years. I would be surprised (not shocked, but surprised) if Dickey ends up worse than league-average over the 2014-2015 seasons.
2.2 wins, working from Dickey's 2011 season, means around 150 innings at his 2010-2011 level. If you go by bWAR Dickey can miss even more time, and get in around 125 innings at his 2010-2011 level and still be worth the deal.
***The Mets won't contend if they're buying wins at 6m apiece, but that's another conversation.
2.2 wins, working from Dickey's 2011 season, means around 150 innings at his 2010-2011 level. If you go by bWAR Dickey can miss even more time, and get in around 125 innings at his 2010-2011 level and still be worth the deal.
You should go with bWAR. Knuckleballers have a known ability to suppress BABIP, so a FIP-based WAR sells them short.
In 2011 Dickey threw 208 IP with a 112 ERA+ and Fangraphs credits him with 2.5 WAR. Daniel Hudson threw 222 IP (with a similar ratio of unearned runs allowed) and a 113 ERA+ and Fangraphs gives him credit for nearly twice as many WAR, 4.9. Baseball reference has him at 3.1 WAR, but even that seems a little low.
Edit: I guess Snapper beat me to it, but I still think 3.1 WAR for his 2011 season seems on the low side, but maybe I'm off.
As I understand it, the average BABIP for knuckleballers is considerably lower than other pitchers, hovering between .273 and .278. Lo and behold, Dickey's BABIP over the past three seasons were .276, .278, and .275.
However, I wouldn't give him 2/26 now, even if it came with a huge risk of losing him next off-season. As said above, it's uncharted waters in terms of what to expect. If he throws 150 IP of 70 ERA+ ball this season, you can have him for whatever you want in 2014. If he repeats, and your finances hold, you can make nice and offer a pile of cash. If he goes elsewhere, well, is the outcome of the 2014 Mets hinging on the performance of a 39 year old pitcher? Because, if it is, there are many other problems.
The only thing I don't get is the 2/20 offer. That seems to make no sense. I would have simply told him at the end of the season that we loved what he did, love having him around, can we help with his favorite charity and we look forward to negotiating next off-season.
Again, if Dickey asked me for help hacking the Wilpon's accounts and transferring all of their assets to an account of his in the Cayman's, I'd probably do it. As a fan, I want him paid and, even as a Braves fan, to stay a Met.* But it makes baseball sense to me to be cautious with a 38-year old pitcher with as little history as he has.**
* I usually root for the guy to stay put.
** IMO, though, most teams overbid for older players. It seems few take pay cuts that represent their risk and performance decline (not necessarily applicable in this case).
I don't really understand this sentiment. The Mets will need pitching in 2014 whether or not it hinges on any individual one.
It's not only the Mets doing their valuation of Dickey in a vacuum (as discussed above, it's hard to imagine any scenario where he's not worth extending for 3/31 RIGHT NOW) but rather what each individual trade partner thinks about the same positions.
In that light, with 4-6 potential teams looking at Dickey, they've probably all expressed different levels of interest in Dickey either with the contract extension or not. I think the Mets are stalling.
If he goes elsewhere, well, is the outcome of the 2014 Mets hinging on the performance of a 39 year old pitcher? Because, if it is, there are many other problems.
I don't get this argument at all. Dickey will still likely be above average, if not significantly so, in 2014.
what team can't find a use for that? Will the outcome of their season hinge on it? I don't know, but I'm constantly amazed at how blase people often are about pissing away a win or 2 or 3 here and there. The Mets missed the playoffs by 1 game in 2007. They missed again by 1 game in 2008. (They also missed by 1 game in 1998 and 3 games in 1997.) Are these things such distant memories that we can't envision a scenario where having an above average innings eater on the roster could help? And even if the Mets aren't an 89-win team in 2014-2015 (not that you have to be to have a shot at the playoffs now), is there no value at all to being 81-81 instead of 78-84, or 85-77 instead of 82-80? Fans still need a reason to come to the games and Dickey gives them that even beyond his value on the field.
I find this believable.
This is an argument for never giving any pitcher a decent size contract.
Every pitcher in baseball is fully capable of giving you 150 IP of 70 ERA+ next year. In fact all have a significant probably of giving you 0 IP.
Actually you'll find that a lot of contracts pay out a fair amount up front. As I understand it, it's advantageous for tax purposes. Or at least can be.
This is something that hamstrung the Expos during the Brochu years. Even though they were profitable they had real cash flow issues (since Brochu had no personal wealth and the other members of the ownership group didn't want to actually put any more money in)
I did a study quite some time ago on pitcher aging. 36 is when you see strong evidence of consistent decline.
Oh there are exceptions. Maybe Dickey is one of them. I don't think it's a smart way to bet -- at least not if you can't hedge somehow.
I don't get this argument at all. Dickey will still likely be above average, if not significantly so, in 2014.
It isn't clear, but my point is that by extending now, you risk having a 39 year old coming off a crappy season. How much would you pay for that?
Yes, the Mets will need pitching regardless. I guess it comes down to the last quoted sentence. I think there isn't a very good chance he'll be significantly above average in 2014. You don't. Neither of us has much evidence in support. You have his last three years. I have his age.
And, yes, of course any pitcher could suck. But there is ample history that a 29 yhear old pitcher coming off three good years will continue to be good. There isn't as much for a 38 year old pitcher. IOW, I expect decline, probably significant. If it's the Wilpon's money, I hope he gets it. If it were my money, I wouldn't extend him.
I do think the Mets have handled it badly. By making an offer, you're sort of saying you'll negotiate. And I can see holding my ground on the initial offer if I'm Dickey. By making an offer an not negotiating, you irritate. I would have just not made an offer. If, come June he's still rocking, I'd make an extension offer (yes, I know, "no negotiations" in season but if you make an attractive offer, people will listen). It risks costing you a little more money but you save the chance of implosion. Either way, I don't go longer than 2 years.
I just think you guys saying he's low mileage and a knuckleballer are underestimating both his relative lack of performance history and his age.
The market, anyway, agrees with me. CJ Wilson got a juicy deal with a two year track record as a starter.
Agree w 88 and 90, btw.
And after reading bunyon in 94, I thought right away of the Reyes' "negotiations". A lowball offer everyone knew was stupid low, and it just served to make the Mets continue to look like ########. This is the same offer, v2012.
Well this is the crux of it, I guess. But he wouldn't have to be that great in '14 and '15 to make $13m at least an acceptable pricetag. And of course he could be good enough to make it a great bargain.
#94, your original point was clear. I think the response of most people here is that if there was no risk of Dickey being bad in 2014 then he'd be getting paid a lot more for a lot longer than 2/$26. 2/$26 is the price for a guy with some risk of being bad. The Mets are almost lucky that he's old and they don't have to worry about him asking for a 5+ year deal. Their track record with those (a la Pedro or Johan) is not great.
I like the arguments that he's better represented by bWAR than fWAR, so, here he is, 2010 to 2012:
3.4, 3.1, 5.6
That gives him a 3 year projection (knocking off half a win a year) of:
5.1, 4.6, 4.1 = 13.8 wins * 6m per win = $82.8 million, and $52.2m of that for 2014 and 2105.
Okay, the half win a year aging curve isn't nearly enough (Dickey won't last until he's 48, I don't think), so let me reverse engineer this.
5.1, 3.6, 2.1 = 5.7 wins in 2014 and 2015, making Dickey worth $34.2m on the proposed 26m deal. That's a 3-2-1 Marcels with 1.5 wins a year lost to aging after a half win drop off in 2013.
You have to regress some and knock his 2013 down a fair bit to make this a fair deal for both sides, something like:
4.6, 3.6, 2.6 = 6.2 wins in 2014 and 2015, making Dickey worth $37.2m on the proposed 26m deal. Too much. How about
4.6, 3.1, 1.1 = 4.2 wins in 2014 and 2015. The Mets get $25.2 m out of the last two years of the deal.
That involves an accelerating aging curve, and implying Dickey is out of the league after 2015.
In sum, I have little idea, but it was interesting to me to see the kind of progression Dickey might take for a 2/26 extension to turn out okay for both sides.
.
If I were to put my "Wilpon Hat" on for a minute, and think about it as stupidly as possible, perhaps they are thinking that 2012 was a complete and utter fluke and that his true talent is how he pitched in 2010 and 2011.
Using a projection from that basis (of true talent around 3.2 WAR) is 2.7, 2.2, 1.7 WAR per season, 2013-2015 using the bWAR numbers you cited. That gives the Mets 3.9 wins in years 2014 and 2015 which is a value of approximately $24 million.
But more likely, I think they are just stalling like I said in #88. In the meantime, they're trashing the guy in the press. Ugh.
That did strike me right away as an excellent explanation for the stall.
So, the hope is that 29 GMs fail to make a decent offer for Dickey. Hooboy.
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