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Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Rancel: Revisited : A look at Carl Crawford & Roberto Clemente at age 27

and…RETIRE 13 is a movement of interested individuals and organizations that believe that “it’s not time yet, but maybe in the future” that Carl Crawford’s #13 be retired from Major League Baseball!

I also discovered that from age 27-37, Clemente experienced a power surge, and averaged a .502 slg over his final 11 seasons. While CC hasn’t had a home run breakout, his slugging percentage is 40 points higher than it was in 2008. After just six extra base hits in April, CC’s showed some serious power in May in which he slugged .512 with 13 XBH. Crawford has just three extra base hits in the month of June, but two of them have been home runs.

Once again, I decided to compare the two players through the first 289 plate appearances during the year in which they were classified as 27. Not surprisingly, the comparison is holding very strong. In fact, their OPS is within two points of each other. They are also within two home runs, two doubles and one triple of each other.

...The .454 slugging % Clemente posted in 1962 would end up as the lowest of his final 11 seasons. As we move closer to July, we will undoubtedly hear Crawford’s name mentioned in trade rumors. After looking at this comparison, it puts in perspective (for me at least) the type of player we are dealing with in Crawford. I’m not saying Crawford is next Clemente. Defensively, Clemente’s arm was legendary, but CC’s speed makes him very special not only defensively, but on the basepaths.

Repoz Posted: June 17, 2009 at 08:27 PM | 5 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, rays, sabermetrics

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   1. kthejoker Posted: June 17, 2009 at 09:03 PM (#3222704)
Of trivial interest: Carl Crawford's #4 comp by age is Sam Crawford.
   2. AROM Posted: June 17, 2009 at 09:06 PM (#3222708)
I don't see them as remotely comparable. Context is key, Clemente put up his slugging % in a pitcher's era and a pitcher's park. Had he played today his batting stats would probably look like Vlad Guerrero. Vlad's career OPS+ is significantly higher (146 to 130) but their peaks are a good match, and the career value will probably be closer when Vlad finishes his decline phase.
   3. Steve Treder Posted: June 17, 2009 at 09:12 PM (#3222721)
I don't see them as remotely comparable. Context is key

Yeah, and moreover, Crawford's skill profile isn't particularly similar to Clemente's. A much better comp for Crawford from that era would be Lou Brock.
   4. Jim Wisinski Posted: June 17, 2009 at 09:33 PM (#3222752)
I find the comparison of active players to hall of famers to be a rather pointless exercise. Those players are what they are because they were unusually gifted in some way that caused them to go above and beyond what most players are capable of. Crawford's early career could be virtually identical to Clemente's and he would still be unlikely to follow Clemente's late career path simply because Clemente was a very special player and that propelled him to those great heights.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: June 18, 2009 at 09:07 AM (#3223194)
Trade rumors? The Rays have a $10 M option for 2010 (with a $1.25 M buyout) and no young players to take his place that I'm aware of. OK, Cots says the 2010 option could be $11. 5 with escalators. Plus the Rays will be fighting for a playoff spot. I put the odds of the Rays trading Crawford this season at lower than his odds of becoming Clemente unless it's a trade for, oh, Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore.

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