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Sunday, April 07, 2013

Rangers intentionally walk Pujols three times to face Josh Hamilton - CBSSports.com

Subtract one Vernon Wells, add one Josh Hamilton. It’s all about balance.

So, how did Hamilton respond to being challenged by his former team? Not so well:

First and second with two outs in the second: Three-pitch strikeout.
First and second with two outs in the fourth: Three-pitch strikeout.
First and second with one out in the eighth: First-pitch fly out to left.

Hamilton, 31, went 0 for 4 with a walk, a run scored and two strikeouts in the game, dropping his season batting line to .050/.208/.050. He’s 1 for 20 with three walks and 10 strikeouts in the team’s five games. That’s ... really, really bad.

Jim Furtado Posted: April 07, 2013 at 08:22 AM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, rangers

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   1. Knock on any Iorg Posted: April 07, 2013 at 08:33 AM (#4406541)
Hey, let's not be so hasty now. At least the guy has heart or character or grit or something.
   2. cndb41a Posted: April 07, 2013 at 09:31 AM (#4406567)
10 year from now when they look back at the 10 worse contacts of all time - Hamilton and AFraud will top the list.
   3. John Northey Posted: April 07, 2013 at 09:40 AM (#4406575)
Meanwhile Wells is hitting 286/375/714 for the Yankees. Go figure.
   4. The District Attorney Posted: April 07, 2013 at 09:43 AM (#4406579)
10 year from now when they look back at the 10 worse contacts of all time - Hamilton and AFraud will top the list.
Not necessarily. Why, it was the playoffs only a couple of years ago when the Cardinals intentionally walked someone to pitch to Ryan Howard... oh, wait.
   5. Greg K Posted: April 07, 2013 at 09:44 AM (#4406580)
10 year from now when they look back at the 10 worse contacts of all time - Hamilton and AFraud will top the list.

How quickly we forget Vernon Wells!

EDIT: I suppose some people haven't forgotten Vernon Wells
   6. BDC Posted: April 07, 2013 at 09:44 AM (#4406581)
I wonder if there's a previous-team advantage, in the sense that clubs know the weaknesses of their recent teammates better than anybody else. In 1993, Barry Bonds, on his way to a huge MVP season, hit .233/.313/.535 against Pittsburgh.

OTOH, in 2004 AROD hit .343/.425/.543 against Texas. In 2001 he'd hit .267/.385/.533 against Seattle, very good but still not as well as he hit most other teams.

I need more data points :-D
   7. Greg K Posted: April 07, 2013 at 09:49 AM (#4406584)
OTOH, in 2004 AROD hit .343/.425/.543 against Texas

I was about to make a crack about Texas pitching in 2004, but wow, they put up a team ERA+ of 111. Everyone did quite well except for some bum with the unlikely name of R.A. Dickey.
   8. bobm Posted: April 07, 2013 at 10:09 AM (#4406593)
From 1916 to 2013, (requiring IBB>=3), sorted by greatest IBB

                                                                                                             
Rk                 Player          Date  Tm Opp    Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP    WPA   aLI BOP
1            Andre Dawson    1990-05-22 CHC CIN  W  2-1  8  3 0 1  0  0  0   0  5   5  0   0  0.125 2.934   4
                                                                                                             
2             Barry Bonds    2004-09-22 SFG HOU  W  5-1  5  1 0 1  0  1  0   1  4   4  0   0  0.123  .814   4
3             Barry Bonds 2004-06-12(2) SFG BAL  L  4-5  6  1 1 0  0  0  0   0  5   4  0   0  0.123 1.980   4
4             Barry Bonds    2004-05-01 SFG FLA  W  6-3  5  1 1 0  0  0  0   0  4   4  0   0  0.053 1.118   4
5             Barry Bonds    2004-04-23 SFG LAD  L  4-5  6  2 1 2  0  0  0   1  4   4  0   0  0.294 1.195   4
6           Manny Ramirez    2001-06-05 BOS DET  W  4-3  8  4 1 2  0  0  1   1  4   4  0   0  0.183 1.916   4
7         Garry Templeton    1985-07-05 SDP PIT  L  4-5  6  2 1 1  0  0  0   0  4   4  0   0  0.076 2.357   8
8             Roger Maris    1962-05-22 NYY LAA  W  2-1  6  1 0 0  0  0  0   0  5   4  0   0  0.065 2.710   4
                                                                                                             
134 tied with 3 IBB


   9. Matt Welch Posted: April 07, 2013 at 10:13 AM (#4406595)
Some pretty choice mind-f***ery from Wash there yesterday. Hamilton has looked like he wants to cry.
   10. bobm Posted: April 07, 2013 at 10:19 AM (#4406598)
Dawson's 5 IBB game:

Tuesday, May 22, 1990, 1:22, Wrigley Field
Attendance: 29,860, Time of Game: 4:27

 
                1  2  3   4  5  6   7  8  9  10 11 12  13 14 15  16    R  H  E
                -  -  -   -  -  -   -  -  -   -  -  -   -  -  -   -    -  -  -
Reds            0  0  0   0  0  0   0  0  0   0  0  0   1  0  0   0    1 11  2
Cubs            0  0  0   0  0  0   0  0  0   0  0  0   1  0  0   1    2 10  0


Winning Run scored with 1 out

Inn Score Out RoB Pit(cnt)Sequence      R/O Bat      Batter    Pitcher wWPA  wWE Play Description
b1  0-0   2 -2-                4(3-0)IIII CHC    A.Dawson T.Browning 1%  54% Intentional Walk
b1  0-0   2 12-        3(2-0)BBX        O CHC L.McClendon T.Browning -4%  50% Flyball: CF (Deep CF)
0 runs 2 hits 0 errors 2 LOB. Reds 0 Cubs 0.

b8  0-0   2 --3                4(3-0)IIII CHC    A.Dawson T.Browning 1%  61% Intentional Walk
b8  0-0   2 1-3         2(1-0)BX        O CHC L.McClendon T.Browning -11%  50% Groundout: 3B-1B
0 runs 1 hit 0 errors 2 LOB. Reds 0 Cubs 0.

b12 0-0   2 12-              4(3-0)..BBBI CHC    A.Dawson  T.Birtsas 5%  66% Intentional Walk Walton to 3B Grace to 2B
b12 0-0   2 123        3(1-1)CBX        O CHC L.McClendon  T.Birtsas -16%  50% Groundout: 2B-SS/Forceout at 2B (SS-2B)
0 runs 0 hits 0 errors 3 LOB. Reds 0 Cubs 0.

b14 1-1   2 1--                2(1-0)1B1B CHC    A.Dawson  S.Scudder 4%  61% Wild Pitch Sandberg to 2B
b14 1-1   2 -2-             4(3-0)1B1B.II CHC    A.Dawson  S.Scudder 0%  61% Intentional Walk
Dave Clark pinch hits for LloydMcClendon (LF) batting 5th
b14 1-1   2 12-     5(2-2).BBCFS        O CHC     D.Clark  S.Scudder -11%  50% Strikeout Swinging
0 runs 0 hits 0 errors 2 LOB. Reds 1 Cubs 1.

b16 1-1   1 1-3                4(3-0)IIII CHC    A.Dawson  S.Scudder 1%  83% Intentional Walk Grace to 2B
b16 1-1   1 123       4(2-1)BBFX        R CHC     D.Clark  S.Scudder 17% 100% Single (Line Drive to Deep SS-2B) Sandberg Scores/unER Grace to 3B Dawson to 2B
1 run 2 hits 1 error 3 LOB. Reds 1 Cubs 2.


   11. bfan Posted: April 07, 2013 at 11:36 AM (#4406628)
Someone quote me Pujols' April stats from last year. Come on, this is 5 games; Hamilton will hit.
   12. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: April 07, 2013 at 12:14 PM (#4406647)
Some pretty choice mind-f***ery from Wash there yesterday. Hamilton has looked like he wants to cry.

There must have been a LOT of discord in that clubhouse last year during Hamilton's "God insists that I quit smoking right now even if it makes me hit .150" saga.
   13. TomH Posted: April 07, 2013 at 06:02 PM (#4407034)
and it obviously affected their play because they .. oh wait, they DID win a lot of games.
   14. cardsfanboy Posted: April 07, 2013 at 06:06 PM (#4407041)
10 year from now when they look back at the 10 worse contacts of all time - Hamilton and AFraud will top the list.


I doubt either of them will make the top ten. Arod's first contract was a plus, his second contract was pretty dumb at the time of the signing, but when you have Ryan Howard's and Gary Mathews Jr contract to contend with, it's awfully hard to top that list.

Edit: and as mentioned, Vernon Wells. (note I don't think it's fair to compare pitchers to players contracts as the risk factors figure into the decision already and has to be accepted as part of doing business)
   15. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: April 07, 2013 at 06:07 PM (#4407044)
I doubt either of them will make the top ten. Arod's first contract was a plus, his second contract was pretty dumb at the time of the signing, but when you have Ryan Howard's and Gary Mathews Jr contract to contend with, it's awfully hard to top that list.
Vernon Wells.

EDIT: You beat me to it on your own edit!
   16. cardsfanboy Posted: April 07, 2013 at 06:10 PM (#4407046)
Vernon Wells.

EDIT: You beat me to it on your own edit!


I still think that nothing compares to the Gary Mathews jr contract. I can somewhat come up with a justification of Wells's contract when looked at with at the time knowledge. I can't justify Mathews(I have seen other people use war to justify it, but I just don't see it, a defense only outfielder can be had for significantly less than what Mathews got) no matter what point of view I put myself into.
   17. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 07, 2013 at 06:32 PM (#4407078)
I find the current prevalence of IBBs in the game mind-boggling. The large majority of the time, I doubt the difference between the two hitters is worth the free baserunner.

(I'm referring to IBBs like the ones mentioned in the topic intro, not IBBs meant to try to set up double plays.)
   18. Jim Wisinski Posted: April 07, 2013 at 10:27 PM (#4407184)
Some pretty choice mind-f***ery from Wash there yesterday.


Yeah, it really seems like there was something more to this than baseball strategy. Even accounting for pitcher handedness it's hard to see this as anything other than Washington being sure that Hamilton would fold when faced with that kind of situation.


Hamilton seems to have recovered from it fine tonight though.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: April 08, 2013 at 12:02 AM (#4407222)
a defense only outfielder can be had for significantly less than what Mathews got)

Grrr ...

in the three seasons prior to that contract, Matthews averaged a 108 OPS+ and amassed 14 Rbat. Nothing exciting but that is above-average for a CF. From 27 to 30, which omits his "big" age 31 but also goes back far enough to help wash out the effect of the terrible start to his age 28 season (i.e. some unfavorable cherry-picking, some favorable), he had a 96 OPS+. From ages 27-30 he had 9 WAR in less than 1800 PA which is a 3-WAR player. From 25 to 32, which includes his first year in LA, he had 12 oWAR, 15.5 WAR and 3 WAA in a bit less than 6 seasons worth of PA.

There may have been legit reasons to expect his defense to immediately go to crap and for his bat to soon follow but the notion that he was "defense only" prior to the signing is incorrect. Heck, even in his first year in LA he had 2.3 oWAR. The problem was he went from a consistent 9-10 Rfield to -13.

In that sense, yes, he's an Andrus-like player (although GMj didn't make it until age 25 and is substantially less talented than Andrus) -- a non-elite hitter putting up good WAR due to defense and baserunning. True, those are probably not good players to sign long-term for big money, especially in their 30s. Yes, somebody like Coco Crisp is at least as good as Matthews was and he still doesn't make anything close to GMj money (the same could be said of the similar Pierre and Rowand contracts). Heck, Mike Cameron never made that kind of money and he was a lot better than Matthews. But it's not like he was Tony Campana or Jeremy Reed or something. Matthews was a thoroughly blah hitter at a position where a thoroughly blah hitter is, well, thoroughly blah.

(Crap, I keep forgetting WAR has shifted up ... average is somewhere around 2.2 WAR now I think. Adjust as you see fit.)
   20. Walt Davis Posted: April 08, 2013 at 12:17 AM (#4407224)
Oops, back to the original topic that got us onto GMj though ... I do agree that the Hamilton contract is unlikely to go down as one of the 10 worst. That may be due to nothing other than the fact that 5/$125 just ain't what it used to be.

The Wells contract wasn't THAT stupid either ... trading for the full-cost back-end of the Wells contract is one of the stupidest moves in MLB history.

I do put AROD II up there though ... we'll have to see how it plays out I suppose. I understand putting pitchers in a different bucket but three belong on the list anyway -- Park, Hampton and Dreifort -- because those were dumb in theory and they turned out dumb. Sure, they might have turned out non-dumb or at least less dumb if they guys hadn't gotten hurt too.
   21. bigglou115 Posted: April 08, 2013 at 12:36 AM (#4407229)
I still think Mike Hampton needs special consideration. The Rockies signed him to a deal. Whether that deal was good or bad I won't say. What I will say is it was clearly awful by the time the Braves picked it up from the Marlins. I know the Braves didn't sign the deal, but bringing him on at that point had to be one of the most bone-headed decisions of all time after putting up consecutive years of ERAs in the 5s and 6s.
   22. cardsfanboy Posted: April 08, 2013 at 12:54 AM (#4407233)
in the three seasons prior to that contract, Matthews averaged a 108 OPS+ and amassed 14 Rbat.


Two of those three seasons he had negative Rbat.... not sure that is a strong argument. He basically had a good 2006 and wasn't totally useless the rest of those years with a bat. It was a horrible stupendously bad signing at the time of the signing and everyone knew it. At best, at the very very best, with completely optimistic potential, he might have the potential to post a 3.0 war, one year during that five year contract.

I do put AROD II up there though ... we'll have to see how it plays out I suppose. I understand putting pitchers in a different bucket but three belong on the list anyway -- Park, Hampton and Dreifort -- because those were dumb in theory and they turned out dumb. Sure, they might have turned out non-dumb or at least less dumb if they guys hadn't gotten hurt too.


I agree about pitchers, I just think that they have a built in risk that I'm not sure analysts have properly evaluated that teams accept.
   23. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 08, 2013 at 01:16 AM (#4407237)
I understand putting pitchers in a different bucket but three belong on the list anyway -- Park, Hampton and Dreifort -- because those were dumb in theory and they turned out dumb. Sure, they might have turned out non-dumb or at least less dumb if they guys hadn't gotten hurt too.

Why was Hampton's contract a dumb idea? He had averaged 223 innings with 140 ERA+ in the three previous seasons. He was a groundball pitcher who lead the NL in hr/9 in the two seasons prior to signing the contract. Heck, he was even a good hitter. He seemed like he'd be someone who could deal with pitching in Coors.

I don't think it was considered a huge overpay at the time.

   24.     Hey Gurl Posted: April 08, 2013 at 03:00 AM (#4407239)
I've made this comparison so many times but look at Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter through age-27. Who would you rather have? Then suddenly Vernon forgot how to hit and stopped winning Gold Gloves and is a laughingstock at 34. Meanwhile Torii is still going strong and the Tigers paid him 26M for his age 37 and 38 seasons. Nobody could have predicted the paths of these players. If Vernon had followed the Torii route he would still be on the Jays and his contract is not that big a deal. So it goes. So it goes.
   25. The Polish Sausage Racer Posted: April 08, 2013 at 12:42 PM (#4407486)
When Hunter was diagnosed with serious arthritis years ago I thought his career was practically over. Turns out either not so serious, or playing through significant pain.

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