Rays Anatomy: Does B.J Upton have 30/30 Vision

I recently talked to Jim Callis, Executive Editor of Baseball America, about B.J. Upton’s chances for 30/30 and the comparison to Alfonso Soriano I mentioned earlier. “I think B.J. almost certainly will go 30-30 at some point in his career. If I have to put a number on his chance for this year, I’d say 30 percent” Callis said. On the comparision to Soriano, Jim said “Not a bad comparison, I think B.J. is significantly better OF, though.”

I also talked to a writer from Baseball Prospectus about the same topics. He said the Soriano comparison was fair, but wasn’t so optimistic about the 30/30 chances. The writer gave Upton a 10 percent chance and mentioned that his PECOTA mean has him at 30 steals, but 18 homers. Even his 90% is a bit shy of the mark. He also mentioned that the percent could possibly be higher, because Upton is probably bigger than his listed weight of 185 lbs and thinks Justin Upton has a better chance at 30/30 anyway.

Eric Seidman who writes for Statistically Speaking and is currently writing the book Bridging the Statistical Gap, told me “I feel that there is a very high chance Upton will get to 30/30 and I would even go so far as to say upwards of 70%. Now of course this is given that a few factors play out the correct way, including his ability to maintain a high BABIP and stay on the field. I do not think steals will be his problem but rather the HR. I say 70%, but I am fully acknowledging that it is more likely that the 70% refers to him being extremely close, like with 27 HR and 35 SB or something along those lines as opposed to say 38 HR and 46 SB. He’s got a very good chance, but it will not surprise me at all if he ends up with a 28-28 or something just missing it.”