Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, April 11, 2008

Rays Anatomy: Does B.J Upton have 30/30 Vision

I recently talked to Jim Callis, Executive Editor of Baseball America, about B.J. Upton’s chances for 30/30 and the comparison to Alfonso Soriano I mentioned earlier. “I think B.J. almost certainly will go 30-30 at some point in his career. If I have to put a number on his chance for this year, I’d say 30 percent” Callis said. On the comparision to Soriano, Jim said “Not a bad comparison, I think B.J. is significantly better OF, though.”

I also talked to a writer from Baseball Prospectus about the same topics. He said the Soriano comparison was fair, but wasn’t so optimistic about the 30/30 chances. The writer gave Upton a 10 percent chance and mentioned that his PECOTA mean has him at 30 steals, but 18 homers. Even his 90% is a bit shy of the mark. He also mentioned that the percent could possibly be higher, because Upton is probably bigger than his listed weight of 185 lbs and thinks Justin Upton has a better chance at 30/30 anyway.

Eric Seidman who writes for Statistically Speaking and is currently writing the book Bridging the Statistical Gap, told me “I feel that there is a very high chance Upton will get to 30/30 and I would even go so far as to say upwards of 70%. Now of course this is given that a few factors play out the correct way, including his ability to maintain a high BABIP and stay on the field. I do not think steals will be his problem but rather the HR. I say 70%, but I am fully acknowledging that it is more likely that the 70% refers to him being extremely close, like with 27 HR and 35 SB or something along those lines as opposed to say 38 HR and 46 SB. He’s got a very good chance, but it will not surprise me at all if he ends up with a 28-28 or something just missing it.”

JoeRays Posted: April 11, 2008 at 04:24 PM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rays

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. DKDC Posted: April 11, 2008 at 04:50 PM (#2739505)
Isn't 30/30 vision the same thing as 20/20 vision?
   2. More Dewey is Always Good Posted: April 11, 2008 at 04:59 PM (#2739514)
Isn't 30/30 vision the same thing as 20/20 vision?

It is, but that's beside the point of the article.
   3. Styles P. Deadball Posted: April 11, 2008 at 05:00 PM (#2739515)
BJ's eyes go to 11, though.
   4. AROM Posted: April 11, 2008 at 05:16 PM (#2739525)
I like BJ's chances. Not so sure on Justin though. Doesn't seem like he runs enough. He's more likely to not care so much about the steal and become a big power threat.
   5. JoeRays Posted: April 11, 2008 at 05:34 PM (#2739536)
Isn't 30/30 vision the same thing as 20/20 vision?


Maybe it's a new form of lasik
   6. JasonNCC Posted: April 11, 2008 at 05:38 PM (#2739541)
i can totally see bj upton going 30-30 this year and beyond. what did their parents feed them when they were younger...jeez.
   7. willcarrolldoesnotsuk Posted: April 11, 2008 at 06:02 PM (#2739565)
Isn't 30/30 vision the same thing as 20/20 vision?
No.

20/20 means you can see something 20 feet away that a person with normal vision can see 20 feet away.

30/30 means you can see something 30 feet away that a person with normal vision can see 30 feet away.

A person with normal vision has, by definition, both 20/20 and 30/30 vision. But just because you have one doesn't mean you have the other.
   8. There's a bustle in Misirlou's hedgerow Posted: April 11, 2008 at 06:10 PM (#2739572)
I prefer pi
   9. ValueArb Posted: April 11, 2008 at 06:56 PM (#2739609)
This BJ character sounds pretty good, like a smaller, lesser version of Justin Upton...

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
BFFB
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 2016 July 25: Card Shark - Bikini trading-card king Brian Wallos expands his empire to politics
(217 - 12:33am, Jul 26)
Last: Chicago Joe

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 7-25-16
(109 - 12:23am, Jul 26)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogWill Hall of Fame’s new election rules help former Tigers?
(40 - 12:18am, Jul 26)
Last: There's a bustle in Misirlou's hedgerow

NewsblogYankees' Aroldis Chapman could be traded | MLB.com
(162 - 11:58pm, Jul 25)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogSABR 46 Convention in Miami
(41 - 11:17pm, Jul 25)
Last: Mike Webber

NewsblogOT: Wrestling Thread November 2014
(1641 - 11:14pm, Jul 25)
Last: Chokeland Bill

NewsblogYankees deep in trade talks: Aroldis Chapman for Cubs stud | New York Post
(92 - 10:34pm, Jul 25)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogBaseball Hall of Fame: Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Piazza are Cooperstown odd couple
(1 - 9:57pm, Jul 25)
Last: Cblau

NewsblogWhite Sox problems always more interesting than other teams' problems - Chicago Tribune
(10 - 9:56pm, Jul 25)
Last: madvillain

NewsblogOT: NBA Offseason Thread, July 2016
(821 - 9:19pm, Jul 25)
Last: PASTE Transcends Almost All Generations (Zeth)

NewsblogTed Berg: I badly wanted MLB to adopt replay before 2014. Now I find it boring and dumb
(67 - 6:52pm, Jul 25)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogKen Griffey, Mike Piazza set for Hall of Fame | MLB.com
(45 - 6:44pm, Jul 25)
Last: Batman

NewsblogRockies will promote prospect David Dahl | MLB.com
(6 - 6:21pm, Jul 25)
Last: Perry

NewsblogReport: Yankees say Aroldis Chapman trade near | MLB.com
(89 - 4:44pm, Jul 25)
Last: Lars6788

NewsblogYounger breed of techies replacing baseball lifers in GM roles - StarTribune.com
(33 - 4:40pm, Jul 25)
Last: All Sleepy knows is what's on the internet

Page rendered in 0.3504 seconds
68 querie(s) executed