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Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Rays, Kevin Kiermaier nearing $50 million extension

The Rays and Kevin Kiermaier are working on a long-term deal that could keep the Gold Glove centerfielder under team control for at least six more years and be worth more than $50 million, the Tampa Bay Times has learned….

Kiermaier, 26, was to make $2.975 million this year after qualifying for arbitration for the first time as a Super Two; the new contract — with an annual average value of nearly $9 million — will start this season.

Kiermaier is eligible for free agency after the 2020 season, so this deal could keep him with the Rays for several years beyond. Based on long-term contracts the Rays have struck with other players, there are likely at least one or two team option years included.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 15, 2017 at 12:05 AM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: kevin kiermaier, rays

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: March 15, 2017 at 12:38 AM (#5417530)
Dexter Fowler was a super-2 for 2012-15, starting at $2.35 and ending at $9.5 ... don't know if any of that was covered by a multi-year. Total of $23.5 for those 4 years. Given the higher (raw) starting point, that probably puts Kiermayer at an expectation of about $27. So the Rays take on the risk in exchange for something like 2/$23 for two FA years. I think the main drawback from his perspective is he'd become an FA after his age 32 season which isn't a good FA age. I suppose the chance that anybody would give him more than a 3-4 year deal if he was FA at 30-31 is fairly slim unless the offense ticks up.

Obviously he's a tough guy to find comps for. I went with ages 24-26, OPS+ between 95 and 115 (he's 105), dWAR>=6. Post-expansion we get 10 players including Kiermaier but one of those is Pudge 2 who's a bad comp and also #1 in WAR. Problematic list since Kiermier is #2 in WAR but last in PA so in those terms all of these guys were worse. The CFs on the list are Andruw, Blair and Franklin Gutierrez ... and we might as well add Heyward. Additionally you've got SSs Rollins, Gene Alley and Ron Hansen and 3B Nettles.

Those 7 were pretty good from 27-32. Everybody except Gutierrez remained a solid defender. None (except Pudge) broke out as a hitter but Nettles, Rollins and Andruw maintained. In overall WAR terms, Nettles (33) easily leads the way while Rollins, Andruw and Blair produced 15-22 WAR. Alley and Hansen only had about 3 full seasons of PAs left but they did fine in those PAs (8-9 WAR). The worst was Gutierrez who got hurt but still produced 6 WAR in just over 2 seasons of PAs. In short, all 7 produced at an above-average rate but 3 of the 7 didn't get a lot of PT. Injuries for Gutierrez. I don't know about Alley but he went from a 4.5-5 WAR SS from 24-27 (decent bat, good glove) to a part-time player (terrible bat, average glove). Hansen missed most of age 28 and looks like it must have been an injury that robbed him of his defensive value (+62 Rfield at SS from 25-27 to average at mostly 2B/3B after 28).
   2. Nasty Nate Posted: March 15, 2017 at 12:56 AM (#5417533)
I wonder if Desmond Jennings had a chance for a smaller version of this extension at his equivalent service time point, but turned down an offer.
   3. villageidiom Posted: March 24, 2017 at 11:02 PM (#5423415)
Another take on the extension.

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