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Monday, January 12, 2009

Red Reporter: Slyde: Edinson Volquez and my attempt to explain a new graph

Whoa!...My Juxtapoz splash page just fell out!

Below you will see a graph of all of the pitches for Edinson Volquez in 2008 that registered with the Pitch F/X computers (3243 of 3389 pitches).  The pitches have been aggregated into circles that represent a specific zone around the plate. Width-wise, the circles are the size of an actual baseball, but for mundane reasons, the height of the ball is a calculated strike zone divided by 8 and usually comes out to about an eighth to a quarter of an inch smaller than the ball.  The balls on the perimeter represent every pitch that is more than the ball’s radius outside of the strikezone, so obviously those balls are nowhere near representative size, but they make the graph look nice.

The colors come in three hues.  The red circles represent zones where the batter makes better than average contact per swing in that zone.  Blue circles represent less than average contact and gray circles indicate that less than 0.5% of the pitches in the sample were in that zone.  The shade of the circle also has meaning as circles with a darker shade mean that the batter swings more frequently at pitches in that zone, while circles with a lighter shade represent fewer swings per pitch.

Finally, the numbers in the circle represent the slugging percentage of the batter(s) on pitches in that zone.  I feel like slugging is most representative of the type of contact being made by the batter, so that’s why I chose it over the batting average in the Ted Williams’ picture.

Repoz Posted: January 12, 2009 at 03:02 PM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: reds, sabermetrics

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   1. Chris Needham Posted: January 12, 2009 at 05:41 PM (#3049493)
Hmm... so pitches in the zone get hit harder. Breaking pitches whose action don't take them out of the zone are hit harder. And a changeup from a right-handed pitcher is pretty effective against left-handed batters.

What did we ever do before pitchfx?

I kid, I kid. sorta.
   2. Sheer Tim Foli Posted: January 12, 2009 at 08:04 PM (#3049722)
The data in isolation isn't thrilling but I imagine a future where I can scroll through charts like these looking for interesting variances or whatnot. In the datawarehouse world we often distinguish between dataminers who are looking for something specific and data explorers that don't know exactly what they are looking for but always seem to come back with something interesting.

Once we start comparing cards of batters, types of batters, pitchers etc we may find nothing or, if we are lucky, the next great truth that will be ignored by the BBWA.
   3. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 12, 2009 at 08:18 PM (#3049773)
Won't someone think of the colorblind?
(I kid, I kid. Sorta.)
   4. CraigK Posted: January 12, 2009 at 08:20 PM (#3049784)
See, this is the type of thing a stat-friendly organization should be using the hell out of. Get a chart like this for each of your pitchers, figure out what works and what doesn't, and drill the correct way of pitching into their heads.
   5. Chipper Jonestown Massacre Posted: January 12, 2009 at 08:28 PM (#3049814)
   6. Sheer Tim Foli Posted: January 12, 2009 at 08:29 PM (#3049818)
<edited>
never mind
   7. joker24 Posted: January 12, 2009 at 09:15 PM (#3049917)

See, this is the type of thing a stat-friendly organization should be using the hell out of. Get a chart like this for each of your pitchers, figure out what works and what doesn't, and drill the correct way of pitching into their heads.


While I'm sure there are things that are missed, these are exactly the kind of things scouts can see already. And it's not nearly as simple as saying "Volquez, your FB on the inner half sucks stop throwing it" because it sets up pitches later in an at-bat. Not to mention he's going to be throwing more FBs in hitter's counts anyway where he is forced to throw a meatier pitch. In any case, there are a million confounding factors here.
   8. Zach Posted: January 13, 2009 at 01:01 AM (#3050141)
I'd think diagrams like this would be more useful for batters than for pitchers, just by virtue of the variety of different swing styles.

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