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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, December 17, 2012Red Sox in agreement on one-year deal with shortstop Stephen Drew
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1. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 17, 2012 at 07:10 AM (#4326484)2012: WHO are these guys??
2013: ...ok...you get it..
Weird. The Tigers and A's were after him for a while but the word was he wanted two or even three years.
Before the injury, Drew was a solidly above average shortstop with All-Star upside. Getting him for below league average money on the one-year deal is a good deal. (And 2013 money doesn't really matter much for the Sox, who won't hit to the luxury tax cap and have shed payroll from last season.)
So his last 600 major league PA's dating back to May 2011 have really been quite terrible.
.226/.302/.349 .651 OPS
He might bounce back in Boston though. He's always been a bit streakier than the average player.
What does this say about Iglesias, besides the obvious (that the team doesn't think he can hit enough to hold the job full time, or they think he is too injury prone, or both)?
To me, Iglesias would be a perfect solution for a low-budget team with lots of young pitching, particularly a ground-ball inducing staff. He can't hit for ####, but his glove truly is amazing, and he's a cheap solution for the next few years. Think of the Rays several years ago, right before they became competitive.
The counterargument is Jose Iglesias, whose AAA (MLE) and MLB numbers are in the 470 OPS range.
He's not a major leaguer. But we knew that.
There are lots of guys with good gloves who can't hit for #### floating around out there. Why trade for Iglesias when you can sign a minor league free agent?
My bi-polar approach to the off-season continues and now I feel good again. If the off-season is this much of an emotional rollercoaster I don't know what I'm going to be like once April rolls around. I'm going to make Phil Coorey look stable at this rate.
Now let's hope for positive developmental years from Iglesias, Bogaerts, and Marrero.
Vs Lefty SP:
Ellsbury
Pedroia
Ortiz
Napoli
MBrooks
Gomes
Victorino
Salty
Drew
Vs Righty RP:
Ellsbury
Victorino
Pedroia
Ortiz
Napoli
Drew
MBrooks
Kalish
Salty
And "MBrooks" confused me a LOT more than it should have.
$9.5 million for that? That is league average for a player who has been non-productive for years? Other than Jeter and Reyes, is there another shortstop in the AL who makes over $10 million a year? Must be a bunch if $9.5 is average.
Who was the real competition? Can't see Oakland for that money. Even Detroit must have budget limits.
Who was the real competition? Can't see Oakland for that money. Even Detroit must have budget limits.
Yeah, I'm guessing Detroit dropped out after resigning Sanchez.
Honestly my mind went to Mauro Gomez but I couldn't figure out what you were talking about. Really, I was very puzzled.
It's probably an overpay but it seems like the Sox could either have offered him market value for a chance that he might sign (and being JD's brother and all, probably a diminished one) or you can offer him more than market value and guarantee that he'll sign. This was the last real hole to be filled, the Sox still have tons of payroll room and the alternatives were... lacking... so it's hard to get worked up about overpaying for a one year contract.
That's pretty deceptive - what you're saying is he had 1.6 WAR in 2011 and -0.5 WAR in 2012. So basically he's getting paid to perform as in 2011.
Where the number of years he hasn't been productive is at most two.
If he performs like 2010 you've got a huge bargain and a significant piece towards making the playoffs next year, if he performs like 2011 you get your money's worth, and an upgrade over your in-house options, and if he performs like 2012 you're out $9.5 mil and Iglesias gets his shot (again).
This was basically the only option for the Sox, so to do it at so little cost is pretty great. If anything I can understand the sentiment in #20, trying to avoid Beltre Redux.
Erick Aybar - 8.5
Asdrubal Cabrera - 8.25 (AAV)
JJ Hardy - 7.0
Jose Reyes - 17.7 (AAV)
Alexei Ramirez - 8.5
Derek Jeter - 14.0 (I think I accounted for the option right)
Jhonny Peralta - 6.0
All from BBRef. For a one year deal for the one shortstop of any meaning on the market 9.5 doesn't look crazy high to me. I think he fits in well with most of the non-Jeter/Reyes guys in terms of ability (except Cabrera who hasn't reached FA yet).
Sure, but Drew's not even close to the player Cabrera is, at this point.
True and if Cabrera has two more good seasons his contract will reflect that.
Ditto. Though not 'good' per se. And it's almost completly based on your alls optimism.
I'd say my projection has gone from 76 wins to, 'Ok. Let me see what they look like.' If a gun were put to my head, I'd say 82 wins.
Jose Reyes - trade
Yunel Escobar - trade
Marco Scutaro - 3 year/$20 million
Cliff Pennington - trade
Mike Aviles - trade
Mike Aviles - trade again
Stephen Drew - 1/9.5
Maicer Izturs - 3/9 (didn't play 100 games at short but plays it enough to be considered)
That said, the Sox need a lefty bat and Drew is a good buy-low candidate. Iglesias isn't going to be hurt by more AAA ABs, while Drew improves the 2013 team and potentially brings back a prospect or draft pick.
If Iglesias can put up a 600 OPS, he will be the everyday starting shortstop. But there's some question whether or not he'll ever get to even 550 OPS. I'm not holding my breath.
What are the Sox long-term plans at short? Sox Prospects doesn't think Bogaerts will stick there (" Will transition to third base or left field down the line. Can stick on the infield.").
Bogaerts is still the plan, I think. They also drafted a SS pretty high this year.
One of the interesting themes that I've noticed in many places since the summer is that Bogaerts CAN play short but is expected to grow too big to stay there. I think it's an important distinction to note that he's a decent shortstop who may not have the body to stay there long term rather than a guy who simply can't hack it at shortstop. It wouldn't surprise me if he spent his pre-FA years as a shortstop and around that time had to shift to 3rd base. Some of that will be impacted by Iglesias and Marrero of course.
That's what they said about Tony Pena Jr. And he did manage it for one season.
Wow, looking at his page, I see he was already 26 in that season. I'm stunned even the Royals gave him a starting shot at that age.
Anyway Merry Christmas to my fellow Sox fans , I'll see most of you next year as we head into the real busy season now here at the pub.
Take care
Oh, I wasn't making an "argument".....my first words were "the only caveat"
They all have some caveat or another, and I'd much rather have Drew still on the D Backs at 10 million than giving up Bauer to get Gregorious. On the other hand, his bat speed has noticeably slowed a bit, and he's striking out more than ever before. Expecting a return to 2010 levels or production is overly optimistic. I know it's hard to look at Drew's career and not feel like you are getting a league average hitter than can play SS at least close to avg, give or take a few inexact fielding runs. I've always felt good about his defense anyway.
But most likely best case here is 90 OPS+ and lg avg defense, which is plenty good for a one year stopgap while a team figures out the future. And there IS always a chance he really rebounds. Players that were formally quite good are the most likely ones to be good again, provided they aren't too old.
Year Age PA SO%
2006 23 226 22.1%
2007 24 619 16.2%
2008 25 663 16.4%
2009 26 595 14.6%
2010 27 633 17.1%
2011 28 354 20.9%
2012 29 327 23.2%
7 Yrs 3417 17.7%
MLB Averages 18.0%
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