Is this a precursor to an Ellsbury trade? I'm not sure Victorino's bat plays in RF.

If it isn't, then this is just an unspeakably terrible signing. Just ghastly.

Shane Victorino, last 3 seasons against RHP: .244/.311/.387

So let's say they sign Greinke to a long term contract. Is Greinke + Napoli + Victorino + loads of cash better than Gonzalez + Beckett + Crawford?

Right field? After signing Napoli to patrol first base? What's next, $40M to Stephen Drew to patrol third?

Very disappointing. And I hope he never steps foot in Left.

@3 - No.

$12 million a year to bet that Victorino has enough pop to play a corner outfield position when he doesn't get half his games in Philly's Mickie Mouse home park? Good luck with that.

That's why getting excited about clearing all that salary doesn't make much sense if you've still got the same clowns signing the deals.

Simple 5/4/3 projection for Shane Victorino: 260/330/425
Average AL RF: 265/325/430

His bat seems fine to me in RF, and you combine that with a center fielder's glove and baserunning, you should have a solidly above average player. $13M is a bargain based on those numbers.

The Winter Meetings continue to be a productive exercise for the Red Sox.

Don't confuse "activity" with "progress."

$12 million a year to bet that Victorino has enough pop to play a corner outfield position when he doesn't get half his games in Philly's Mickie Mouse home park?

Victorino career: 340/430
Victorino in CBP: 355/440

That looks like a pretty normal home/road split, nothing terrifying.

Don't confuse "activity" with "progress."

Right. Like that off-season when the Cubs traded for Juan Pierre and signed Jacque Jones to a three-year deal.

His bat seems fine to me in RF, and you combine that with a center fielder's glove and baserunning, you should have a solidly above average player. $13M is a bargain based on those numbers.

Apologist. Red Sox fans deserve better than a good defender and base runner with a decent bat who averaged 3.5 WAR the last 3 years!

He does provide some injury insurance / trade option with Ellsbury.

@6 What if you swap Hamilton in for Greinke?

Simple 5/4/3 projection for Shane Victorino: 260/330/425
Average AL RF: 265/325/430

Is that average starting right fielder or average right fielder? If its all right fielders including backups that doesn't make me feel a ton better.

Great, just great. The Sox sign a platoon centerfielder to a 3 year $39 million contract. So much for that newfound fiscal discipline.

Ick.

This isn't a terrible signing, but it's also not exactly an inspiring signing.

They either believe having a former CF patrolling RF in Fenway is a big boost to keeping runs down(and accept the average bat for the position) or they are planning on moving Ellsbury in a package for some SP..that's all I can think of regarding this signing. Still an 80 win team though.

All of Cleveland just breathed a sigh of relief. Dodged a bullet there. Decent complementary player. However, with his age and the size contract desired would have been a lousy fit for an Indians team just getting out from under a couple bad contracts.

Simple 5/4/3 projection for Shane Victorino: 260/330/425
Average AL RF: 265/325/430

His bat seems fine to me in RF, and you combine that with a center fielder's glove and baserunning, you should have a solidly above average player. $13M is a bargain based on those numbers.

So the optimistic view is that we just got a somewhat above average player for three years?

Didnt they lose 93 games last year?
Dont they have a 24 year old right fielder who can maybe be just as good next year?
Arent their two best prospects ticketed for the outfield?

I hate this signing.

Victorino has certainly been a good player, but the caveat would be that he's 32 and coming off an off-season. Of course, coming off an off-season is the right time to sign such a player, or else he'd get 17 or 19 million instead of this lousy 12 and change. But ages 32-33-34 might not be.

If the Yankees could squeeze 19 HRs plus whatever else of value that got from the corpse of Raul Ibanez, maybe the Red Sox can get as lucky with Victorino? Please?

I think you guys are nuts and this is a great signing. He's at least a 3 WAR projection right now and that's worth >3/39 even with decline due to age.

I think you guys are nuts and this is a great signing. He's at least a 3 WAR projection right now and that's worth >3/39 even with decline due to age.

Thats a good signing for some teams. Its a pointless signing for the Red Sox, and it might be a detriment to finding someone much better in 2014/15.

With Napoli and Victorino, the Red Sox will certainly clinch the 2011 pennant!

25 - is that to say that general managers are always fighting the last but one WAR?

The Torii Hunter deal looks a little better now. He's older but I'd rather have him for 2 than Victorino for 3.

As I said, they're trying to do the minimum to stop the fans rioting and generate cash flow for Henry. Bet there's no Anibal, even though year for year he could had for Napoli/Victorino money (yes, longer, but he's much younger).

Robothal (think it was him) just said on MLB Network that Victorino turned down 4/44 from the Indians to take this deal.

I really don't like this - I'm off to put the prices up in anger

Seems like the kind of contract I expect the Pirates or Orioles or somebody to be signing a guy like Victorino to.

Not the Orioles these days; they have Dan Duquette. Have to be favorites in the East next year!

I gotta be honest... I'm stunned by this--and not in a good way. He looked toastier than burnt toast this past year, and his routes have always been... well, not what you'd like to see (as far as I can tell). He loses a step, he no longer has the speed to make up for the bad judgment and that could spell disaster in RF at Fenway.

I thought he'd be lucky to get a 2/$25 deal; this is craziness (and also pretty pointless given what is supposed to be in the pipeline and would be ready in 2014/2015). I don't get this at all unless they're moving Ellsbury+++ for King Felix or some nuttiness like that.

I mean, when Phillies fans are laughing at you for signing one of their ex-players... you've done poorly in the FA market. I wish I had MCoA's optimism, but I think this is an albatross from Day 1, and if not then, certainly in 2014/2015.

This is a genius signing. After Upton gets $70M and Pagan gets $40M, and Bourn wants like $100M, you quickly sign up Victorino for $40M. Now the CF market is weak and the one player left is super expensive, and all of the other CF signings look really expensive. Then, some team that still needs a CFer has few options and limited cash, and Ellsbury looks like a reasonable contract now, so they send an awesome pitcher to Fenway in exchange for Ellsbury. Corner the market and deal from strength! Genius!

Back to reality. As with the Gomes signing, lots of itchy trigger fingers here. If this is to replace Ellsbury it's completely fine, and there's already rumors to that effect.

Even if it's not, Victorino is a very good player coming off a down year. If he had a normal year, he was looking at 4 years and $60M+ in this market. This isn't a case where the team just simply doesn't understand the value of a player. If Victorino is the old Victorino, it's a bargain. If last year represents the new norm, it's a bad signing. If it's a sign of skill erosion but not the new norm, it's blah. As with Napoli, if the regressed projection says you're paying $5-6M per win or less, and you have the upside of last year being a fluke (or Fenway fit/1B for Napoli), then great.

Not that he doesn't hate everything (or that I can read anything pas the first 3 sentences), but apparently Law hates this signing too.

Torii Hunter's probably kicking himself.

wrong place

The Red Sox are flailing, which should have been predicted from the Napoli-1B signing.

They have turned into the Mets. This is what the Mets did last year, acquiring a bunch of overpaid mediocrities rather than just put the money towards Jose Reyes.

This is turning into an old, mediocre team at best, with too much of their resources tied to second-tier players.

I gotta be honest... I'm stunned by this--and not in a good way. He looked toastier than burnt toast this past year, and his routes have always been... well, not what you'd like to see (as far as I can tell). He loses a step, he no longer has the speed to make up for the bad judgment and that could spell disaster in RF at Fenway.

I thought he'd be lucky to get a 2/$25 deal;

I honestly thought he might have retired when I saw him on tv doing analysis during the postseason.

Guys who steal 39 bases (career high) and get caught 7 times have not lost a step.

These would be good signings if you hadn't traded Adrian Gonzalez.

But you traded Adrian Gonzalez. And now you're going to build around this?

Okay.

They have turned into the Mets. This is what the Mets did last year, acquiring a bunch of overpaid mediocrities rather than just put the money towards Jose Reyes.

I don't like the signing much either, but what do you mean by this? The Mets didn't acquire anyone nearly as good as Victorino or Napoli last offseason, unless I am forgetting someone. I think they just put the money in their pocket (or their debtors') rather than sign Reyes.

Frank Francisco?

So Ellsbury to PHI then. What has to be coming back for this signing not to be monumentally dumb?

So Ellsbury to PHI then. What has to be coming back for this signing not to be monumentally dumb?

Why not double down and get Ryan Howard?

That's it - shoulda used the Rauch money to sign Reyes...

Guys who steal 39 bases (career high) and get caught 7 times have not lost a step.

He's a smart baserunner, not a fast one who steals bases with his blinding speed. More Dave Roberts than Jacoby Ellsbury.

It's the fielding I'm most concerned about. He's not Raul Ibanez awful, but I've watched a lot of Victorino over the years in CF and he's just not one of those CFs who glides to the rights spot and makes plays effortlessly. The reason he always looks like he's trying in CF is because he takes bad routes. Until now, he's made up for it with his speed, but his speed was never the greatest to begin with and in a cavernous RF at Fenway it could be a complete disaster. I also don't think he's that great at going back on balls (again, he's no Abreu but he's also not Griffey in his prime)... In short, the glove's overrated.

Will he get you 50 walks and a .325 OBP (and maybe goose the OBP up to .340 if he has a BABIP spike like he did in 2011)? Sure, and I suppose if he hits 8th or 9th to create a "2nd leadoff" kind of situation, that's OK... but Jezus Christo, did we really need to spend $13 million for that? Really? Does this mean they thought/think Cody Ross is getting 5/$50 from someone?

This all just has to mean they expect Ellsbury to either get traded or walk after 2013, at which point one of the kids will man an OF slot and Victorino slides over to play CF.

I still can't get over how awful this deal is. But what absolutely terrifies me is the FO thinking that lead to this deal will lead to other deals...

So Ellsbury to PHI then. What has to be coming back for this signing not to be monumentally dumb?

Why not double down and get Ryan Howard?

Hmm... Now if we can turn 1 year of Ellsbury into either:

1) what's left of Lee's contract (3 years/$75 million + $12.5 million buyout of 2016 or $27.5 million) + cash kicked in from Philly (maybe $5 million/year?), or

2) Halladay (2 years/$40 million), or

3) Howard (who's on basically a 4/$105 contract if you assume the 2017 option would be declined) if the Phillies send 50% of the cost of it with him; at $12.5 million a year he's a useful LHB and in a couple of years could perhaps be a useful DH after Ortiz leaves/retires

...I might feel better about this move if Ellsbury is on the move next... Not because I want to lose Ellsbury (I don't), but I'm almost resigned to the fact Ellsbury's gone after 2013, and since we aren't likely to compete in 2013, we might as well leverage a superfluous piece into something that might help for 2014/2015.

Victorino is worth 25% more per year than Pagan? I think this is an overpay. I like'd Victorino for the Mets, but with the caveat that he sits against some of the tough righties. Hard to play small ball in Fenway Park when the opposition is playing Home Run Derby. IMHO the Upton and Victorino contracts are excessive, while the Pagan contract and the Span trade were wise.

I'm a huge Red Sox fan. I'm not a Shane Victorino fan. Many people on this thread are very unhappy about this signing. Let me say:

1) All three of the FA deals so far are three years or less. All three guys will be fine this year, probably next year...third year? We'll see. Napoli and Victorino represent a lot of money coming off the books after 2015 - over $27 million.

2) I am very hesitant to judge these moves until the entire off-season is complete. If they trade Ellsbury as a centerpiece of a package that gets the team a frontline starter, then Victorino makes more sense. Ellsbury is walking after next year, anyway- we're going to need a CF after 2013, anyway.

3) That said, this signing is probably not a strong statement on behalf of Kalish, or a statement that Jackie Bradley will be ready during 2013. Kalish may be a secondary part of a trade for frontline help.

They have turned into the Mets. This is what the Mets did last year, acquiring a bunch of overpaid mediocrities rather than just put the money towards Jose Reyes.

The Mets have done this a few times. In the years around 2000, the Mets acquired a lot of decent but not great veterans (Kevin Appier, Todd Zeile, Jeromy Burnitz, Roger Cedeno). A few years later they went into rebuilding mode, and they signed some guys around the same age/money (Mike Cameron, Kaz Matsui, Cliff Floyd). The first time, those decisions were disastrous, because a lot of money was pumped into meh players exactly when the Mets were in win now mode. Being too cheap to sign the high quality players (ARod, Mussina etc) killed the team. The second time, those acquisitions were fine, because the Mets were rebuilding and the meh guys weren't there to win playoff games, they were there just to fill the team's gaping holes for a few years.

My question is what the Red Sox think they're doing: are Napoli/Victorino part of an honest plan to win as many games as possible, or are they just there to edge the team a bit closer to respectability for a little while?

Trying to think of other teams that would make sense besides the Phillies. Focused on the ML roster -- any of the below could make sense in a "for a prospect" way.

Reds -- Are they really going with Drew Stubbs again? Could they get Homer Bailey (2 years left before FA, Reds have pitching)? Probably not.

Indians -- Lost out on Victorino, but I thought they were shedding salary. Don't have a pitcher that makes any sense. Choo doesn't make any sense.

Mariners -- They've got to do something for Jack Z to keep a job, right? Not a lot of great fits on the ML roster.

Ramgers -- Hard to find a player that makes sense, and it seems to me they'll resign Hamilton.

So yeah, I'm curious to see what this could be if there's actually any substance.

Simple 5/4/3 projection for Shane Victorino: 260/330/425
Average AL RF: 265/325/430

His bat seems fine to me in RF, and you combine that with a center fielder's glove and baserunning, you should have a solidly above average player. $13M is a bargain based on those numbers.

The problem is that they've signed a bunch of players in their 30s who project to 2-4 WAR. And 2-4 WAR players in their 30s are more likely to give you 0-2 WAR than they are 4-6 WAR.

The Red Sox have lost their way.

Reds -- Are they really going with Drew Stubbs again? Could they get Homer Bailey (2 years left before FA, Reds have pitching)? Probably not.

Supposedly the Reds have offered Bailey to the Rockies for Dexter Fowler, although the teams deny it. But yes, Cincinnati is shopping for a center fielder, and Bailey is available.

Victorino gave you almost 6 WAR last year, at 30.

Torii Hunter's probably kicking himself.

Yeah, he's stuck on a likely playoff team for his last 2 years, hitting in front of the best hitter in the world instead of enduring three seasons on a team that is neither building nor contending.

What a shame.

I'm fine with the deal. Yes you need stars to win overall, but not having a good number of average to above average players can hurt you a whole lot as well.

He's super durable. Does everything decently, adds positional flexibility. You need to get to 43 WAR as a team and I expect Napoli and Victorino to average 5-6 between themselves over the next three years. 5-6 war costs $26m on the open market.

OK, then, Torii Hunter's accountant is probably kicking himself (or Torii).

My question is what the Red Sox think they're doing: are Napoli/Victorino part of an honest plan to win as many games as possible, or are they just there to edge the team a bit closer to respectability for a little while?

Get a bunch of RHH who will provide offense at Fenway, win games at Fenway so the fans want to go there and ticket demand returns, worry about winning on the road or making the playoffs later.

Nossir, I don't like it - not one bit.

Min 12 WAR, 2010-12 and the Red Sox (or just about anybody's) chances of acquiring them:

Cano -- nope
Cabrera -- nope
Braun -- nope
Beltre -- oops
Votto -- nope
Zobrist -- good luck
Bautista -- nope
Longoria -- nope
Pujols -- not yet
McCutchen -- nope
Pedroia -- hey, you got 'em
Hamilton -- all it takes is money, probably a lot of it
A Jackson -- nope
Bourn -- well, if you didn't like the Victorino signing ...
Heyward -- nope
Gonzalez -- didn't the Sox have this guy?
Holliday -- an interesting idea, the Cards are creative
Kinsler -- nope
Tulowitzki -- possible but unlikely
Gordon -- nope
Utley -- probably not a 4 WAR player anymore
Headley -- there's a Harvey Korman joke here somewhere
Molina -- nope
Posey -- nope
Granderson -- nope
Prado -- who knew?
Stanton -- nope

27 players, you've got one and you had two others. 13 of the 27 will be under 30 in 2013. Cards, Yankees, Tigers, Rays, Braves, Rangers are (I think) the only teams with two or more. Hamilton and Bourn are the only two freely available.

On the pitching side, there are only 12 pitchers with 12+ WAR over the last 3 years. Josh Johnson was just traded, Dickey might be available in trade. Lee & Halladay were mentioned already. The Phils with those two and Hamels are the only team with 2+. Greinke is not on the list.

Unless you support signing Hamilton for a lot of years and money, what 4+ win players do you expect the Red Sox to acquire? It is quite possible that the FO looked at what's available, decided they didn't want Hamilton and are simply cobbling together the best team from what's available at a non-outrageous price. That might not be the best decision but it would be a perfectly rational one. An interesting question is whether the Sox had the pieces to have pulled off the Marlins trade instead of the Jays -- Reyes, Johnson, Buehrle is a big step up in talent (with risks attached).

Granted, I'm not a Victorino fan although that's not for any rational reason. But of the CFs (and Hunter) available this offseason, he'd have been my last choice. Still, it's a cromulent signing.

Tulowitzki -- possible but unlikely

I'm a little surprised that his name hasn't surfaced. I guess the Rockies are happy with him (and why not) but when the Sox unloaded all that money in August his name was one of the first I thought of. He fills a need obviously and with money and prospects aplenty the Sox would at least seem like a team that could go after him if the Rox were so inclined to move him.

I'd love to see the Sox break the bank in $ and prospects for Tulo. Sadly I can't imagine much the Sox have that the Rox want.

Is Fowler surplus for them? Who's supposed to play CF for them?

Ellsbury (+ extension), Kalish, Iglesias, de la Rosa for Tulo, Fowler? Is that at all realistic?

Is Helton complete toast, or could he be thrown in to try to start 130 games at 1B? He's only ever been bad in even-numbered years...

Kalish needs to be made a part of a package for an impact player NOW. I'm ready to see the back of Iglesias before his value completely bottoms out, as well. Whoever else has to go with those two (outside of Pedroia, Lester, Buccholz, and Papi) to get something done that's going to excite me, I don't care.

On Victorino, I want badly to believe MCoA's version, but [7] pretty well sums up my entire reaction to the money spent so far in Nashville...

That's why getting excited about clearing all that salary doesn't make much sense if you've still got the same clowns signing the deals.

Guys who steal 39 bases (career high) and get caught 7 times have not lost a step.

Yes, but he won't have Tommy Hanson to run on, this year (at least not in the same division).

I feel people are way too down on this signing, and the Napoli signing. While neither are exciting both moves add players who project better than the incumbents at valuations that make sense, and don't block anyone.

I have little doubt the RedSox are a better team over the next 3 years than they were before the week started.

Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino won't be the cause of a rebouding Redsox. That turn will depend on Lester, Ortiz, Pedrioa and Jacoby playing like Stars again. Clay, Bailey and Bard regaining lost form and Middlebrooks and Kalish showing improvements.


I think the issue is the fans, including BTTF's fans wanted a pony for Christmas, and instead they only got a bigwheels and a tricycle.

I don't think Gomes/Napoli/Victo qualifies as a Bigwheels and a trike. I'd be happy with a Bigwheels and a trike. The premise of the Dodgers blockbuster was that we'd be getting a Bigwheels and a trike for Christmas. Gomes/Napoli/Victo is more like an educational puzzle, the 'hot new toy' from 2-3 years ago that kids don't actually want any more, and a My Little Pony instead.

A big wheels and a trike are perfectly good toy, as long as your not paying for a 10 speed.

I feel people are way too down on this signing, and the Napoli signing.

I wouldn't lump Victorino and Napoli together at all.

I think the general opinion on Napoli has been pretty positive. Speaking for myself, I am upbeat about the Sox signing Napoli:
--They don't have anyone on the farm likely to take the spot in the near future
--The other free agent 1B aren't too exciting (maybe Swisher at first if you're into that sort of thing)
--Next year's projected FA 1B aren't so swell either
--There are plausible mechanisms for Napoli to be better than what they paid for him (staying healthier and better by playing less C, being a good fit for Fenway).
--Even if he isn't better than what they paid for him, he's a good bet to be the best of what was available (apart from some sort of F'n A trade).

These don't apply as much to Victorino:
--They have a plausible CF prospect wit a 2013/2014 ETA
--There's definitely one, and I'd say a few, better FA OF available now, and that's likely to be true in next year's FA OF class as well

That said, I'm still undecided on the Victorino signing. What I do know is that I view it very differently than the Napoli signing.

I think the issue is the fans, including BTTF's fans wanted a pony for Christmas, and instead they only got a bigwheels and a tricycle.

Well yeah. But the thing is, there's at least one genuine pony for sale, and the Red Sox have enough money for said pony.

Min 12 WAR, 2010-12 and the Red Sox (or just about anybody's) chances of acquiring them:

For the record, Victorino has had 10.4 bWar and 13.0 fWAR the past 3 years. He was one of 36 guys to top 12 fWAR.

Well yeah. But the thing is, there's at least one genuine pony for sale, and the Red Sox have enough money for said pony.

Sure if you can get said pony at a solid valuation. I'm assuming that SV was signed because the valuations for Hamilton were not efficient.

The sox no longer have a surplus of value on their roster, so they can no longer afford to pay for premium talent (not due to salary but due to production needs).

I'm not sure what awesome toys people thought would be available for Christmas this year. Hamilton? You really want to pay Hamilton 5/$125m? I'm not touching that ####.

Don't sign anybody for more than three years. Period.

By Spring Training 2014, you've got a pretty good shot at Bradley and Bogaerts being ready. You put one in CF, the other at SS. If Iglesias looks good this year, you deal with SS next off-season. We're not winning the World Series in 2013, anyway, so let's make sure we're not screwing our chances of winning the World Series in 2015, either...

Sure if you can get said pony at a solid valuation. I'm assuming that SV was signed because the valuations for Hamilton were not efficient.

The sox no longer have a surplus of value on their roster, so they can no longer afford to pay for premium talent (not due to salary but due to production needs).

Hot on the heels of that $/Win pennant.

Hot on the heels of that $/Win pennant.

If they have a big payroll, winning the $/win pennant gets them to the playoffs.

missed all this hiking in guatemala (go to el mirador before its overrun). MCOA is a legendary BTF poster and sox analyst. Absent an ellsbury move that he knows about but is not telling us, he has jumped the shark. this is a terrible, terrible signing.