Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Red Sox, Ryan Dempster agree

The Boston Red Sox on Thursday reached a two-year, $26.5 million agreement with free-agent pitcher Ryan Dempster, according to a baseball source. The deal is pending a physical.

While all the focus is on the Angels signing Hamilton, the Red Sox grab Dempster at a bargain price.

Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 13, 2012 at 04:49 PM | 73 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: red sox

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Dale Sams Posted: December 13, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4324148)
Who was the last FA starting pitcher the Sox had that was even a mild success? I don't know if Wells or Colon qualify..
   2. Spectral Posted: December 13, 2012 at 05:09 PM (#4324152)
I think it's interesting to compare this to Haren, who got 1/13. Dempster's resume since moving back into a starting role is quite strong, and he doesn't come with the injury caveats that Haren does. He's older, but at the price he was acquired for, it sure seems like Dempster was the better deal of the two.

Then again, if Haren goes back to being Haren, he's better than Dempster by a bit, so maybe the two just aren't that comparable.
   3. Bhaakon Posted: December 13, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4324153)
Ryan Dempster signing for RA Dickey money? The Wilopns can't be happy with this news.
   4. JJ1986 Posted: December 13, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4324159)
Who was the last FA starting pitcher the Sox had that was even a mild success? I don't know if Wells or Colon qualify..


They re-signed Saberhagen after 1997 and he put up two good years.
   5. Nasty Nate Posted: December 13, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4324160)
Who was the last FA starting pitcher the Sox had that was even a mild success? I don't know if Wells or Colon qualify..


John Burkett was the mildest of mild successes maybe. Ech
   6. DA Baracus Posted: December 13, 2012 at 05:21 PM (#4324173)
Red Sox, Ryan Dempster agree


Also agreeing: 30 Helens.
   7. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: December 13, 2012 at 05:21 PM (#4324174)
umm--I know we're all supposed to hate him, but what about that guy with the Bloody Sock™
   8. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: December 13, 2012 at 05:26 PM (#4324179)
Who was the last FA starting pitcher the Sox had that was even a mild success? I don't know if Wells or Colon qualify.


FA starters signed since 1990 who have put up 5+ WAR total for the Sox are:

Joe Hesketh (signed 1990)
Danny Darwin (1990)
Frank Viola (1992)
Tom Gordon (1995)
Tim Wakefield (1995)
Brett Saberhagen (1997)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (2007)

Greg Harris was technically a free agent in 1990, but that was really a re-signing. Hesketh was a swingman, but spent a couple of years mostly starting.

umm--I know we're all supposed to hate him, but what about that guy with the Bloody Sock™


Acquired via trade. (from BBRef: November 28, 2003: Traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Boston Red Sox for Michael Goss (minors), Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon and Jorge De La Rosa.)

I'd also thought of Arroyo, but forgot that he was a waiver claim from the Pirates.
   9. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: December 13, 2012 at 05:41 PM (#4324191)
FA starters signed since 1990 who have put up 5+ WAR total for the Sox are:
Obviously it isn't an apples-to-apples comparison but in that same period the Yankees have signed Jimmy Key (12.8 WAR), Sabathia (13.2), Mussina (20.2), Kuroda (5.2), Tom Gordon* (6.8), El Duque (17.9), and post-Houston Andy Pettitte (13.1). There may be others I'm not thinking of.

*Pretty impressive that Gordon signed with both the Yankees and Red Sox since 1990 and earned 5+ WAR for both of them
   10. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 13, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4324194)
$13 million for everyone!
   11. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 13, 2012 at 05:45 PM (#4324197)
The Red Sox are having precisely the kind of offseason I was hoping they wouldn't, signing mediocre players because they feel like they have to, missing out on actual stars, not using their payroll room in any kind of creative way on the trade market.

I don't think Ben Cherington really knows his butt from his elbow.
   12. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: December 13, 2012 at 05:47 PM (#4324201)
I really like Dempster's little glove waggle. It's unique and a little bit interesting. He should be a solid mid-rotation starter.
   13. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 13, 2012 at 05:52 PM (#4324209)
He should be a solid mid-rotation starter.


Not now that the Red Sox have signed him.

More seriously, he's a pretty good pitcher but could just as easily flame out and be bad as pitch well. Two years is a reasonable amount of time for him.
   14. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 13, 2012 at 05:52 PM (#4324210)
I don't think Ben Cherington really knows his butt from his elbow.


Voxter, guy on the internet, obviously knows more about baseball than the Red Sox GM.
   15. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:03 PM (#4324223)
phew

hard core brewer fans were concerned that doug would get stupid and sign dempster to oodles of cash a la the suppan debacle

maybe dempster will maintain his effectiveness.

but i would prefer to roll the dice with peralta et al and pay to keep talent that still has a future versus paying some guy for his age 38 season. blech

good luck to dempster
   16. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:06 PM (#4324227)
In the aggregate, all of these moves so far will make the Red Sox a bit above average. They'll be boring, consistent, and win about half of their games. And the way the last two years have gone, that will be an improvement.

As someone on SoSH said, all of these moves will expire at about the time that the kids in AA are ready. This gives them time to figure out what they've got on the farm and doesn't lock them into anything long term.

I'd also like to add that in 3 years they will again have massive payroll flexibility, but even in the interim, going into the next 3 FA classes, they'll still have a ton of flexibility.
   17. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:06 PM (#4324228)
Obviously it isn't an apples-to-apples comparison but in that same period the Yankees have signed Jimmy Key (12.8 WAR), Sabathia (13.2), Mussina (20.2), Kuroda (5.2), Tom Gordon* (6.8), El Duque (17.9), and post-Houston Andy Pettitte (13.1). There may be others I'm not thinking of.


####
   18. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:09 PM (#4324231)
Shameful how the Red Sox are trying to buy their way into contention.
   19. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:13 PM (#4324236)
Uninspiring. All these signings have been just simply uninspiring. 81 wins here they go!

And I think at 5/125 for Hamilton is a good signing for the Angels. I would've been happy with that for the Sox. At some stage, you need to sign some stars at a slightly inflated price.

Oh well, maybe they can still get Sanchez. I'm thinking 5/65(just to continue on their $13mil per theme...)
   20. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:15 PM (#4324237)
but i would prefer to roll the dice with peralta et al and pay to keep talent that still has a future versus paying some guy for his age 38 season. blech


Age doesn't strike me as a huge problem for Dempster, Dempster's two trips to the DL last year were both for muscle tightness. There was some speculation that the second DL trip was more precautionary than anything. He was working on something like a 20 inning scoreless streak when he was DL'd that second time, so whatever the extent of the problem, it wasn't screwing up his game. Little muscle tweaks are of course a part of aging, but his shoulder and elbow seem OK and the muscle issues were gone after June. Point is that he's about as healthy as a pitcher coming up on his 36th birthday can be, and as good a bet to throw 350 solid innings over the next two years as any non-elite pitcher.

The real danger is that his control is always a bit iffy, and in 2010 and 2011 sometimes his normal 3 walks became 5 or 6. There's always the chance that he goes the full Matsuzaka and turns into a guy who has to throw 120 pitches to go 5 innings. But at least he works reasonably quickly and isn't tedious about things. He also seems to require fewer mound visits than most other pitchers, though this could just be an incorrect impression on my part.
   21. Nasty Nate Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:21 PM (#4324244)
Obviously it isn't an apples-to-apples comparison but in that same period the Yankees have signed Jimmy Key (12.8 WAR), Sabathia (13.2), Mussina (20.2), Kuroda (5.2), Tom Gordon* (6.8), El Duque (17.9), and post-Houston Andy Pettitte (13.1). There may be others I'm not thinking of.




####


does #### refer to Clemens?
   22. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:23 PM (#4324246)
Uninspiring. All these signings have been just simply uninspiring. 81 wins here they go!


That would be a 12-win improvement on where they finished last year. If Cherington improves this team by 12 with these players, then he's done a hell of a job this offseason. That puts them in good position to be able to acquire top shelf talent next year and the year after when they're better able to compete.
   23. Dale Sams Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:25 PM (#4324250)
Voxter, guy on the internet, obviously knows more about baseball than the Red Sox GM.


Dale Sams, guy on the internet, knows not to trade starting field players for relievers.

   24. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:27 PM (#4324253)
Let me just ask this to all of the whiners: what players could the Sox have added this offseason to make themselves into a 95-win team next year?

Start with FA and then consider trades of players who have already been traded this offseason. I think when it comes down to it, the cost of adding all of the talent necessary for a 95-win team in this one offseason is both unreasonable and impossible.
   25. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:31 PM (#4324257)
Let me just ask this to all of the whiners: what players could the Sox have added this offseason to make themselves into a 95-win team next year?

Start with FA and then consider trades of players who have already been traded this offseason. I think when it comes down to it, the cost of adding all of the talent necessary for a 95-win team in this one offseason is both unreasonable and impossible.


Not a player, but if you replaced Cherington with Dan Duquette, I'm pretty sure 95 wins is the floor next season.
   26. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:33 PM (#4324262)
While all the focus is on the Angels signing Hamilton, the Red Sox grab Dempster at a bargain price.


Dumpster diving Dempster price?
   27. Jim Furtado Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:34 PM (#4324263)
Who are star FAs the Sox should be signing? As I have said earlier, the best talents have considerable risk. Signing both Hamilton and Greinke this year wouldn't make them them a favorites in the East. With the economics of the game, they have made reasonable signings. Will it win them the division? No. Will it make them a respectable club until their farm system starts to produce players? Yes.
   28. Dale Sams Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:48 PM (#4324273)
If Cherington improves this team by 12 with these players, then he's done a hell of a job this offseason


By that logic, he should be fired for losing 21 wins.
   29. Tim D Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:48 PM (#4324274)
Average money for an average pitcher going into his age 36 season. Uninspiring. Go for Sanchez. Or I'd rather have the upside of Haren.
   30. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:49 PM (#4324278)
Voxter, guy on the internet, obviously knows more about baseball than the Red Sox GM.


Congratulations on having nothing to say.
   31. Dale Sams Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:56 PM (#4324286)
By the way, I'm not particularly bashing their off-season. There's definitly some upside to these signings. I just think they are developing a 'fear to pull the trigger mentality' that will hurt them down the line.
   32. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:56 PM (#4324287)
Let me just ask this to all of the whiners: what players could the Sox have added this offseason to make themselves into a 95-win team next year?


Well that probably wasn't a realistic possibility. That doesn't mean the signings are good. I don't understand the rush to sign Victorino and frankly I would rather give 25 starts to de la Rosa than sign Dempster. It's not that he should have transformed the Sox into a 95 win team but I don't really see these signings as particularly good.

I do like the Napoli signing assuming it goes through.
   33. cardsfanboy Posted: December 13, 2012 at 06:58 PM (#4324291)
Voxter, guy on the internet, obviously knows more about baseball than the Red Sox GM.

Congratulations on having nothing to say.


Yep, I didn't get that comment, this is a baseball forum for people to talk about teams and the moves they make. There are a lot of skills it takes to be a GM of a team, and no GM is great at all the skills, it's very possible that the Red Sox GM is utterly incompetent at identifying the needs of his team and getting the best fit for them.
   34. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 13, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4324294)
Let me just ask this to all of the whiners: what players could the Sox have added this offseason to make themselves into a 95-win team next year?

Sign Sanchez and Jackson for $28 mil per. Add Hamilton at $25 mil per..How much do I have left? $30 mil. Go ahead and do the Napoli thing at $13 mil per, that leaves $17mil. They already signed Ross, don't do Victorino, sign Drew to play SS with money left over. Cobble together warm bodies for LF with existing players. So the rotation includes Lester, Buchholz, Sanchez, Jackson, filler(warm body), pen is already set. Lineup has added Hamilton, Drew and Napoli. Hoping for Ellsbury to produce in CF, LF is warm bodies, infield is set.

Did I forget a signing or something? I feel like I forgot someone and have run out of cash...
   35. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: December 13, 2012 at 07:06 PM (#4324297)
Looks like Theo gets Anibal Sanchez. And now for km's reaction...
   36. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: December 13, 2012 at 07:07 PM (#4324299)
At some stage, you need to sign some stars at a slightly inflated price.


You mean like Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and John Lackey?
   37. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: December 13, 2012 at 07:12 PM (#4324302)
Looks like Theo gets Anibal Sanchez. And now for km's reaction...


The cognitive dissonance that this will require is unfathomable to me.
   38. karlmagnus Posted: December 13, 2012 at 07:22 PM (#4324309)
If that's true it proves that Theo was a B+ GM (which I said at the time) and the real IQ sink was and is Lucchino. Sanchez good for the Cubs, because he'll probably stick around and be useful when they're competitive again. he's probably not an ace, but could easily develop into a Buchholz-level #2.
   39. JJ1986 Posted: December 13, 2012 at 07:22 PM (#4324310)
It was reported by Bob Nightengale, so he may have just made it up.
   40. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: December 13, 2012 at 07:30 PM (#4324314)
And I think at 5/125 for Hamilton is a good signing for the Angels. I would've been happy with that for the Sox. At some stage, you need to sign some stars at a slightly inflated price.


Quick bet: Carl Crawford will have a better OPS+ than Hamilton in 2017.
   41. Spahn Insane Posted: December 13, 2012 at 07:36 PM (#4324318)
Sanchez to the Cubs not confirmed as of 5:08; Tigers supposedly still in the mix.

I was just about to type, "I look forward to seeing Sanchez join Dan Haren in the Cub rotation," but I wouldn't want to be cynical or anything.
   42. Dale Sams Posted: December 13, 2012 at 07:42 PM (#4324321)
the real IQ sink was and is Lucchino


I said it before, Theo's Lackey and Crawford signings smelled like: "You want me to get the best hitter and pitcher on the market, no matter what? Can do."*

*Maybe just Lackey...Crawford had 'SABR friendly signing written on him'.
   43. Mayor Blomberg Posted: December 13, 2012 at 07:43 PM (#4324322)
The agent for Anibal Sanchez, Gene Mato, told CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman that his client has yet to decide on a team, despite reports he'd agreed to a five-year, $75 million deal with the Cubs.

According to Heyman, the Tigers are still very much in play for the free-agent right-hander.

The Cubs also denied a deal had been reached.

Source
   44. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 13, 2012 at 07:43 PM (#4324326)
At some stage, you need to sign some stars at a slightly inflated price.

You mean like Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and John Lackey?


Well unfortunately mistakes get made. Crawford and Lackey were massive overpays and we all pretty much knew it at the time. Gonzalez was great his first year, then the inexplicable power outage(so I'll give you that one)...And I believe Beckett was worth his value with the initial trade and many of us were aghast at the extension. When you fall off the horse though, you need to get back on. You can't just walk away and continue down the path of mediocrity. I like the Napoli signing and always believed that needed to get at least (2) good starters to make their biggest improvement. The starting pitching was sh*t last year through a combination of things and that is the first area that they needed to address; however moves can still be made.
Though I was pretty high on Sanchez also, so not happy that they didn't land him.
   45. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:22 PM (#4324341)
Sign Sanchez and Jackson for $28 mil per. Add Hamilton at $25 mil per..How much do I have left? $30 mil. Go ahead and do the Napoli thing at $13 mil per, that leaves $17mil. They already signed Ross, don't do Victorino, sign Drew to play SS with money left over. Cobble together warm bodies for LF with existing players. So the rotation includes Lester, Buchholz, Sanchez, Jackson, filler(warm body), pen is already set. Lineup has added Hamilton, Drew and Napoli. Hoping for Ellsbury to produce in CF, LF is warm bodies, infield is set.


You think that makes this a 95 win team in 2013? Care to show your math?
   46. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:30 PM (#4324346)
You think that makes this a 95 win team in 2013? Care to show your math?

Not necessarily, but it sure would make them competitive towards gaining a chance at the wild card game. As it stands now, they virtually have no chance of going anywhere.
   47. Dale Sams Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:32 PM (#4324351)
You think that makes this a 95 win team in 2013? Care to show your math?


Sanchez or Jackson is 3 wins more than Cook. The other replaces Doubront and is 2 more. Hamilton is 4 more than whoever played left. Napoli and 4/5th of AGon is a wash (optimistic) Ross is 1 win more than whatever ABS would go to Salty or Lavarnaway. Drew is 1 win more than Iglesias "Ellsbury producing" is 3 wins more than last year. Let's say Lackey is 1 win better than Beckett was and throw in 2 more wins to account for bad luck last year. Throw in more health from Ortiz and Middlebrooks, say 2 wins.

That comes to...88 wins.

edit: No Valentine..how bout two wins for that to get to 90.

edit edit: Sign Greinke, trade Clay. If you squint, that might get 95 wins.
   48. TDF, situational idiot Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:48 PM (#4324361)
Red Sox grab Dempster at a bargain price.
Please.

In '10, he was OK - 2.4 bWAR (110 ERA+, 215 IP).
In '11, he was horrible - .5 WAR (81 ERA+, 202 IP).
In the 1st half of '12, he was great - 174 ERA+, 104 IP.
Finished '12 not very good - 90 ERA+, 69 IP.

Over the past 3 seasons, he has an ERA+ of 102 in 590 IP, bWAR of 6.5 (for perspective, the Mets won't pay Dickey the equivalent of $35M/3 yrs, and he's been almost twice as valuable (616 IP, 129 ERA+, 12.1 bWAR) over the past 3 seasons). If Dempster continues to average 2.2 WAR/season, it's actually a slight overpay.
   49. HOLLA(R) Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:58 PM (#4324367)
I think I finally figured out the offseason plan.

Step 1: Sign Victorino and Dempster
Step 2: Fuse them to form Voltron
Step 3: Convert Voltron to catcher
   50. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: December 13, 2012 at 09:06 PM (#4324371)
Step 3: Convert Voltron to catcher

Step 4: Profit!
   51. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: December 13, 2012 at 09:14 PM (#4324376)
That comes to...88 wins.


This is my point. The other point is what Sean Forman said the other day. You need about 42 WAR to get to the playoffs. the Sox are not getting there with this free agent class.

I think the biggest single improvement the Sox could make is getting Lester not to suck. If he pitches as if he wasn't a jerk, he alone adds about 4 bWAR to the team. Buchholz not sucking gives you maybe another 1 bWAR.

   52. Darren Posted: December 13, 2012 at 09:46 PM (#4324387)

Voxter, guy on the internet, obviously knows more about baseball than the Red Sox GM.


If we are not here to call GMs dumb, why the heck are we here? :)

Hamilton and Greinke are pretty darn expensive, but....

The Red Sox could have signed Hamilton/Greinke/Pagan for the same luxury tax number that they had Crawford/Beckett/Gonzalez for, a hair more in total money, and they would have better projections than those guys.
   53. Walt Davis Posted: December 13, 2012 at 09:46 PM (#4324388)
Haren signed with the Nats, not the Cubs, right?

Over the past 3 seasons, he has an ERA+ of 102 in 590 IP, bWAR of 6.5

Greinke: 604 IP, bWAR of 7.9, 6/$150
Shields: 680 IP (very nice), bWAR of 5.1 (not so much), Myers plus 2/$20
Sanchez: 590 IP, bWAR of 9, 5/$75 and climbing
Peavy: 437 IP, bWAR of 7.3, 2/$29 plus vesting player option (great deal if he's healthy but he wasn't really an FA/available)
Haren: 650 IP, bWAR of 6.2, 1/$13 I think it was, coming off a terrible year
Jackson: 599 IP, bWAR of 6.1, unsigned
Marcum: 520 IP, bWAR of 8, unsigned ... hurt last year I assume

or....

Guthrie: 599 IP, bWAR of 7, 3/$25

Moore might have gotten one right. :-)

I'd agree, it doesn't qualify as a "bargain" as it's close enough to non-Greinke market price. But there are also only 43 pitchers with more WAR than Dempster over the last 3 seasons and getting him for just 2 years is good given his age and possibly a bit of a "bargain." But also, other than Guthrie, anybody else available is either more expensive or coming off a bad/injured year (and probably every bit as expensive).

Of these pitchers, personally I think Sanchez is the one who might really bust out and I'd rather have Jackson at the same price and probably even 3 years at the same AAV as Dempster.
   54. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 13, 2012 at 11:01 PM (#4324426)
Of these pitchers, personally I think Sanchez is the one who might really bust out and I'd rather have Jackson at the same price and probably even 3 years at the same AAV as Dempster.

I've been preaching this since the end of the season. For about $28 mil AAV, you could have had Sanchez and Jackson. If Lester pitches somewhat normally and Buchholz does his thing, then you'd have a real solid rotation for the next few years.

We all have our own ideas on how to build a better team. I'm a pitching whore, so I'd sign as many decent, young starters that I can find. Good SP is always needed at the trade deadline, seems easier to acquire a bat if you have good arms to trade.
   55. Gotham Dave Posted: December 13, 2012 at 11:22 PM (#4324442)
Quick bet: Carl Crawford will have a better OPS+ than Hamilton in 2017.
Well hey, that's no fair. A player can hit anything in 60 PA.
   56. Spahn Insane Posted: December 13, 2012 at 11:33 PM (#4324451)
Haren signed with the Nats, not the Cubs, right?

You missed my (admittedly middling) joke. Haren to the Cubs was reported as a done deal as well, and didn't happen.
   57. Rants Mulliniks Posted: December 14, 2012 at 08:48 AM (#4324553)
Also agreeing: 30 Helens.


Thanks DA! Youtube is blocked by my employer, but the reference alone made me laugh.
   58. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: December 14, 2012 at 09:22 AM (#4324558)
The Red Sox could have signed Hamilton/Greinke/Pagan for the same luxury tax number that they had Crawford/Beckett/Gonzalez for, a hair more in total money, and they would have better projections than those guys.

That strikes me as an insane way to make a decision. Somewhat better than the giant pile of overpaid suck we just got out under from, is a pretty low bar.

The Red sox should not be trying to make slightly less disastrous decisions than last time. They should be trying to make good ones.
   59. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:11 AM (#4324575)
The Red sox should not be trying to make slightly less disastrous decisions than last time. They should be trying to make good ones.
Yes, but they also need to win games. Waiting out favorable contracts in order to maximize $$/win has to be balanced with the need to field a competitive team.

For me, I don't think Zack Greinke is an elite pitcher, so I wanted no part of that contract. Josh Hamilton I could really go either way on, at this money, and the determinative questions (all health related) are both questions I don't have the ability to answer and questions I don't trust the Red Sox to answer. So I am pretty much entirely agnostic on Hamilton. The Sox will need to find some way to add talent before 2014, but I have trouble saying that the fact that they haven't added impact talent before mid-December 2012 is particularly damning.
   60. jmurph Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:17 AM (#4324579)
The Sox will need to find some way to add talent before 2014, but I have trouble saying that the fact that they haven't added impact talent before mid-December 2012 is particularly damning.


This is fair, but I'd be more positive about it if they hadn't also committed $39ish million per year for non-impact talent.
   61. jmurph Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:23 AM (#4324581)
For about $28 mil AAV, you could have had Sanchez and Jackson.


Just as a warning, I may turn into a raving, KM-style trolling lunatic if the only two above average youngish starters left on the market sign for 5/75 or less and Boston ends up with neither of them.
   62. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:26 AM (#4324585)
This is fair, but I'd be more positive about it if they hadn't also committed $39ish million per year for non-impact talent.
Well, they had something like $70M to spend. You can spend all of it on impact talent.

If the Sox haven't added some sort of impact talent by March 2014, I think I'll class that a failure. But there's still time and money for it.
   63. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:27 AM (#4324587)
Sanchez at 5 years doesn't excite me. He's a good pitcher, not a great one or anywhere close to it. The reason to sign him to a five year deal is you think he's going to break out. His career to date does not warrant a five year deal.
   64. jmurph Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:30 AM (#4324592)
Sanchez at 5 years doesn't excite me. He's a good pitcher, not a great one or anywhere close to it. The reason to sign him to a five year deal is you think he's going to break out. His career to date does not warrant a five year deal.


I get that, but he's also as consistent and projectable as you're going to find on the open market, right? These guys just aren't hitting the market anymore.
   65. Darren Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:30 AM (#4324593)
Jackson's pretty surely getting less than that, right?
   66. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:33 AM (#4324595)
Just as a warning, I may turn into a raving, KM-style trolling lunatic if the only two above average youngish starters left on the market sign for 5/75 or less and Boston ends up with neither of them.
Jackson's a solid deal at 3/39, but I don't like him with any more years than that. 4/60 is pushing it for Sanchez. Age isn't so determinative for pitchers, and pitchers break. These are 2.5-3 win pitchers. If you want "impact" talent, these aren't your guys.

I mean, having watched Anibal Sanchez pitch, I'm not seeing "projectible". He's a solid innings eater, but there isn't a big plus pitch there waiting to break out. I can see projectible with Jackson given his fastball. I can wish on Jackson a lot more easily than I can wish on Sanchez.
   67. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:39 AM (#4324602)
I get that, but he's also as consistent and projectable as you're going to find on the open market, right? These guys just aren't hitting the market anymore.


That's true but that's why you stay away from him. I'm not a fan of the Dempster move but on a two year deal I think there is a very real chance his deal proves to be much better than Sanchez'.
   68. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:42 AM (#4324606)
Sanchez at 5 years doesn't excite me. He's a good pitcher, not a great one or anywhere close to it. The reason to sign him to a five year deal is you think he's going to break out. His career to date does not warrant a five year deal.

Excite, no. But it seems like a perfectly reasonable deal.

The guy's only gonna be 29, and has averaged 195 IP of 109 ERA+ (9 total bWAR) the last 3 seasons, with nice peripherals. That guy is not coming cheap.
   69. Nasty Nate Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:49 AM (#4324613)
Sanchez' deal is still not official with anyone, right? mlbtraderumors.com says Tigers' latest offer is 5/77.5...
   70. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:55 AM (#4324622)
Nightengale is reporting 5/80 to the Tigers (just about precisely Burnett/Lackey money), but I'm going to wait until someone with competence confirms.
   71. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:02 AM (#4324628)
Nightengale is reporting 5/80 to the Tigers (just about precisely Burnett/Lackey money), but I'm going to wait until someone with competence confirms.

Years seem right, AAV a bit high for my liking.
   72. jmurph Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:02 AM (#4324629)
Teams need above average, durable starting pitching. These two guys are as safe a bet as any other pitcher that's going to reach free agency to be both above average and durable. I said at the beginning of the off-season that I would prefer that they spent money on these guys and attempt to find the impact bats through trade. Nothing that has unfolded has me thinking that idea was the wrong one.
   73. Walt Davis Posted: December 14, 2012 at 06:23 PM (#4325144)
I've touted Sanchez a bit all offseason and said I thought he'd get Burnett money (5/$80 ... whaddya know).

Now, I've never seen the guy pitch (NZ, Australia ... not conducive) so my liking him is strictly on the numbers. It's of course the K/9 of 8.1 and the K/BB of nearly 3 and the HR/9 under 1 over the last 3 years. In terms of projectibility, bWAR is 9 and fWAR is 12 ... it's a shame they don't have the same replacement level (why? why? why? stop it you silly nerds) ... and fWAR might have more predictive value.

Now it's fair enough to tell me I'm living in the past -- NL starter averages last year were 7.3 K/9 and 2.6 K/BB so Sanchez isn't exactly blowing those numbers out of the water.

EDIT: Oops, meant to add that 5/$80 is at or close to my breaking point for Sanchez. I can certainly see arguments that Dempster at 2/$27 or Jackson at 3/$42 (to make up a number) are better options. I have no great love for 5-year pitcher contracts.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Infinite Joost (Voxter)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread July, 2014
(445 - 12:35pm, Jul 28)
Last: Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14!

Newsblog2014 Prospect Watch | MLB.com: UPDATED
(2 - 12:34pm, Jul 28)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1957 Discussion
(1 - 12:31pm, Jul 28)
Last: DL from MN

NewsblogO'Connor: Tulo looks more A-Rod than Jeter
(13 - 12:29pm, Jul 28)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogOTP - July 2014: Republicans Lose To Democrats For Sixth Straight Year In Congressional Baseball Game
(3320 - 12:25pm, Jul 28)
Last: Ray (RDP)

NewsblogDodgers and Diamondbacks Triple-A teams involved in wild brawl
(23 - 12:23pm, Jul 28)
Last: Ron J2

NewsblogDeadspin: David Ortiz Pissed Off the Rays Again
(28 - 12:20pm, Jul 28)
Last: 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 7-28-2014
(24 - 12:19pm, Jul 28)
Last: Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band.

NewsblogGossage on Bonds, McGwire Hall hopes: ‘Are you f–king kidding?’
(120 - 12:18pm, Jul 28)
Last: Ron J2

NewsblogSchoenfield: Why didn't the Braves win more titles?
(80 - 12:07pm, Jul 28)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogFull Count » Mike Carp explains why he requested a trade from Red Sox
(23 - 11:43am, Jul 28)
Last: Jose Can Still Seabiscuit

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread- July 2014
(969 - 11:18am, Jul 28)
Last: tshipman

SABR - BBTF ChapterWho's going to SABR??
(102 - 11:03am, Jul 28)
Last: Nineto Lezcano needs to get his shit together (CW)

NewsblogIs It True That Some Players Can’t Hack It in New York?
(1 - 10:56am, Jul 28)
Last: Steve Parris, Je t'aime

NewsblogHall of Fame Announces Changes to Voting Process for Recently Retired Players, Effective Immediately
(85 - 10:48am, Jul 28)
Last: toratoratora

Page rendered in 1.1165 seconds
53 querie(s) executed