ESTIMATED 2013 TOTAL COMMITMENTS: $138 MILLION (AS MEASURED FOR LUXURY TAX PURPOSES)
That still leaves more than $40 million for the Red Sox to spend without reaching the luxury tax threshold. If the team trades the arbitration-eligible Jacoby Ellsbury, then that freedom would grow to something more like $50 million.
That, in turn, means the Sox can still consider anyone on the market. In the unlikely event, for instance, that Anibal Sanchez might be open to a four-year deal, the Sox could outbid anyone for him. If a starter loses the game of musical chairs and is left to look for the best one-year deal at the end of the winter, the Sox can outbid anyone. Indeed, the Sox could still add a starter and, if he’s available on a one-year deal, someone like Stephen Drew without reaching the luxury tax threshold.
Moreover, the team has yet to give up any prospects or sacrifice any draft picks this offseason. All of that underscores the notion that, to date, the Sox haven’t done anything to impede any other moves they want to make.
Alex Speier with what looks like a pretty thorough update on where the Sox are financially right now. Long story short, the money is there for another significant signing. (I still hate the Victorino deal though)
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Mayor Blomberg Posted: December 05, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4317790)Looking at a few guys it appears that BBRef's numbers are actual payout numbers and Speier is using luxury tax numbers. A couple of forinstances;
Lackey - $82.5 for 5 = 16.5/year (TFA), actual salary $15.25 (BBRef)
Ortiz - $26 for 2 = 13/year (TFA), actual salary $14 (BBRef)
Pedroia - $40.5 for 6 = 6.75/year (TFA 6.8), actual salary $10 (BBRef)
That is marginally positive; on the other hand, they need a starting shortstop, starting leftfielder (I don't accept that Gomes is that guy), and at least one very good starting pitcher (I'd prefer two). I guess the implication is that at least one of those slots can be filled through trade, which makes sense.
The starting left fielder could conceivably be Kalish with Gomes as the platoon partner couldn't he?
Isn't it a possibility that they don't trade any catchers? Lavarnway could be stashed in Rhode Island, right?
- DH
- 1B
- LF
- RF
- SP
And would be nice if they could find improvements for:
- SS
- C
- SP (another)
- Closer
And would also be good if they solved for expiring contracts for:
- CF
So far, they've filled 4 of the 5 must-solves, all effectively for just cash. They've also done it in a way that allows trade flexibility for CF and C to get others in return, possibly a SP. If they succeed in this, it will open a hole in CF/RF. And that's where the biggest free agent would fit best.
So if this becomes { Ellsbury and Lavarnway and Webster } for { Felix } followed by { sign Hamilton }, or something along those lines, this will have been a pretty big offseason.
Having said that, I'm still doubtful they sign Hamilton. I think it's more likely they trade for OF help than sign the biggest free agent. But that's just generic speculation... There hasn't been much talk about Hamilton suitors quite yet.
It would be nice to have one superstar who will still be a star when the farm starts yielding them. Not that Hamilton might be that guy by then.
And now, because I can't help myself:
Pedro, through age 28: 125-68, 2.68 (168 ERA+), 10.4 K/9
Sanchez, through age 28: 48-51, 3.75 ERA (110 ERA+), 7.6 K/9
I would agree with everything there except "best on the market" (Greinke). But yeah "it's karl" is the best reaction. Sanchez really is a perfect fit for the team but mentioning Pedro in connection to Sanchez is beyond silly.
Randy Johnson, through Age 28: 49-48, 3.95 ERA (101 ERA+), 9 K/9.
Yaneverknow.
However much money he's going to sign for this offseason is going to be a massive, massive overpay. I'd rather give Greinke $200MM than $80MM to Sanchez.
actually have ourselves a team.
If Sanchez is only average based on career performance, Greinke is only slightly above average.
Seriously. The team should score runs...especially if Papi can stay in the lineup. The 'pen looks good to me. Average defense? I guess. So we're down to the starters. Lester/Buch/Aquired Guy/Dubront/Lackey/etc.
I'm lookin' at Lester and Bucholz. I think they're the main question I have.
He STILL looks average. And that time frame hurts Greinke the most because it ignores his ridiculous 2009. Greinke STILL looks a little bit better.
So I guess you're right, in a way, that looking at the numbers a certain way paints Sanchez as 'average' and Greinke as 'only slightly above average.' I stand by my previous post.
On another topic, since I'm here - the Sox 'still have money to burn' and yet they keep getting beat on the small signings. If we should be optimistic about Gomes/Napoli/Victorino because a team has to have 2-3 WAR guys or whatever, they all can's be superstars, fine. Eric Chavez just signed for 1/$3MM. I think he'd fit great on this team. The Rangers signed Soria for 2/$8MM. And they actually HAVE a closer.
The lesson I relearn every year about this time is that on the open market even average is super-expensive.
Though we get the sarcasm, I think the one positive way to look at this is that they definitely seem to be buying low. If both Victorino and Napoli had anything close to career years, they would have each got something like 4/60 minimum. Sure, I'm grasping at the one straw of positivity, but hey at least I'm trying. Now if they don't get 2 starters, then I'll say this again...79 wins, here we come!
Another sliiightly positive way to look at it is by using his real age (32) instead of 33. If I may help you grasp at positivity, that is the same age as Damon when he signed his (longer) deal with the Yankees.
I didn't expect to come around to this way of thinking entering this off-season, but sure, it's possible. Toronto obviously got a lot better, but the Rays and Yankees are probably getting worse. And I think it's fair to expect Baltimore to fall off at least a bit from last year's pace. The talent is out there, they have money, and no one is running away with the division next year.
Not right now. They need an additional 2 good SP. Right now it's a 79 win team.
--C: He had Salty at $4M so Ross at that price is a wash (assuming they trade Salty).
--LF: Ross he had around $7M, so Gomes is a $2M savings.
--DH: Ortiz was supposed to cost $15M, so there's another $2M in savings.
With his original assumptions, he settled in at around $70M to spend. These deals moved that up to $74M. With that, the big Napoli and Victorino signings shave $26M off, putting them at $48M to spend, or very close to where Speier has them.
I have to say, I feel like they've made good use of their money, even if the players aren't as exciting as I'd like. I would love to see them try to work out a trade for a young SS (Andrus and Cabrera are both rumored to be available), sign a young pitcher (Anibel?), and find some way to add another good starter. They should have plenty of cash to accomplish that and still have some left over.
Farrell won't do much to help with the badly managed part of things.
Not right now. They need an additional 2 good SP. Right now it's a 79 win team.
Here's the beauty of Wild Card Play-In Baseball: The reality is that there will be years where being the fourth-place team in the AL East might be good enough to sneak in as the second wild card. 87 wins might be enough some years to "make the tournament". This team could win 87 games in 2013. They could also win 75.
Middlebrooks could hit .290 with 25 HRs, good defense at third. He could be in Pawtucket in June.
Napoli could look like 2011, and abuse The Wall. He could be done.
Victorino, in my opinion, could stink...or he could really stink.
Jon Lester could be awesome. He could suck.
Ellsbury? I have no ####ing idea.
Is Kalish finally healthy? If he is, can he play?
You get the idea. I don't see 90 wins out of this team under any circumstances, but they could be above .500 - and if they are, that'll keep them interesting into at least early September.
But you just listed some of the circumstances that could result in a 90-win team...
Well they were very interesting in September 2011! Not so much last year....
As for the rest of your post, the most likely scenario is that a lot of those things occur at about 90%..
Middlebrooks hits .260 with around 22 HRs and is competent at defense.
Napoli will OPS+ 112.
Victorino will OPS+ 100.
Lester will ERA+ 110
Ellsbury will hopefully be traded for pitching and they will sign both Hamilton and Sanchez for about $38 mil per AND still have $10 mil leftover to get a SS who, well you know, can actually hit the ball out of the infield.
If they move Ellsbury for a pitcher AND add Sanchez AND add Hamilton they will look pretty good for 2013 in my opinion;
Victorino
Pedroia
Hamilton
Napoli
Ortiz
Middlebrooks
Saltalamacchia
Kalish/Gomes
Iglesias
Lester-Buchholz-Sanchez-Good Pitcher-Doubront/Lackey
I'd run with that.
Maybe Cliff Lee? I wouldn't do it as Philadelphia, but they seem willing to trade him.
Starting from where the team was, to contend next year would require spending a lot on FAs/trades, AND lots of good luck, which is easier to come by when you keep the high-variance, disappointing-last-year, potential superstars already on the roster. In short, regarding this signing, it means signing Hamilton and having Ellsbury be 80% of his 2011, and Victorino means one of those guys won't be here next year. Victorino might be a safer bet to be useful, but he's never gonna pull off a 2011 Ellsbury, or anything close.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main