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Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Red Sox trade rumors: ‘Very good chance’ John Lackey and Jon Lester are traded - Over the Monster

What kind of package could they get if they traded both of them together?

Trading John Lackey doesn’t make sense for the Red Sox unless they are getting a massive return that they can’t turn down. That’s what makes Ken Rosenthal’s latest a little frightening: there’s a “very good chance” the Red Sox actually ship both of Jon Lester and John Lackey out, not as a package deal, but in separate transactions.

Edit: Link fixed. Jim.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 30, 2014 at 02:02 PM | 90 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: john lackey, jon lester, trade rumors

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   1. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: July 30, 2014 at 02:58 PM (#4760607)
   2. Sonic Youk Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:04 PM (#4760617)
I'd expect a huge haul for Lackey. Maybe he doesn't want to play for the minimum next year, but he will probably agree to a very friendly extension.
   3. Nasty Nate Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:10 PM (#4760626)
To the Marlins is one rumor. For what? Yelich?
   4. PreservedFish Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:11 PM (#4760628)
I think that the bloggy analytical community puts too much emphasis on $/WAR surplus. Lackey is a solid 2-3 WAR pitcher. He'll mostly be viewed as such, even if he only costs the minimum next year. And there's no telling what type of negotiating shenanigans he'll try in order to improve that minimum contract.
   5. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:12 PM (#4760629)
I'd expect a huge haul for Lackey. Maybe he doesn't want to play for the minimum next year, but he will probably agree to a very friendly extension.

Lackey is 35 years old, has been just a bit better than average over his career (108 ERA+), and comes with a ready-made contract dispute for 2015, plus whatever weight one wants to assign for the beer & chicken fiasco. Not seeing a "huge haul", although that doesn't mean he shouldn't be traded for what they can get.
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:15 PM (#4760636)
Felix Doubront to the Cubs, per Morosi.
   7. rconn23 Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:18 PM (#4760641)
"I'd expect a huge haul for Lackey."

Can't see how you can possibly make that case. Lester on the other hand ...
   8. winnipegwhip Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:18 PM (#4760642)
I guess we are in that window of 24 -72 hours where the stories of Lester and/or Lackey being clubhouse malcontents and selfish players to appear in the Boston press.
   9. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:18 PM (#4760644)
Lester to the O's is supposedly close.


Can't see how you can possibly make that case. Lester on the other hand ...


2-3 WAR pitcher signed to the league minimum next year? That's pretty valuable. He's not a rental like Lester.
   10. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:20 PM (#4760646)
Doubront to the Cubs, per Morosi.
   11. Sonic Youk Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:21 PM (#4760648)
Lackey is a pretty comparable pitcher to Shark, and his contract "dispute" is that his rights are owned for the league minimum, which is the opposite of a problem.
   12. DKDC Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:22 PM (#4760650)
Lester is obviously a huge upgrade for the O's, but if Bundy, Gausman, or Harvey are involved, I'm going to be very disappointed.

I'd also prefer not to give up Eduardo Rodriguez, Chance Sisco, or Christian Walker, but I'm guessing at least one of those guys have to be involved.
   13. rconn23 Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:23 PM (#4760653)
I guess "huge haul" is a relative term. He's also not nearly as good a pitcher as Jon Lester.
   14. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:23 PM (#4760655)
I can't see how Lester merits anything more than a B prospect. I agree that if Bundy, Gausman, or Harvey are involved I'll be pissed.

Frankly, I'd almost rather have Uehara.
   15. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:26 PM (#4760660)
Doubront to the Cubs, per Morosi.


Red Sox fans: "Great trade! Who'd we get?"
   16. tfbg9 Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:27 PM (#4760661)
A PTBNL for Doobie.
   17. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:27 PM (#4760663)
Now they're saying Miguel Gonzalez is involved. I could see Gonzalez and Chance Sisco for Lester. I think that would be fair for both teams.
   18. DKDC Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:28 PM (#4760667)
OK, now everyone tweeting that Lester to O’s is not close. Phew.
   19. Spahn Insane Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:33 PM (#4760672)
A PTBNL for Doobie.

Eh. Is Doubront worth a damn as a back-of-the-rotation/swingman type guy? If so, I suppose I'm OK with giving up a non-top-100 type prospect for him.

Part of me worries that the Cubs become so enamored of their burgeoning minor league depth that they think it's a free resource, and just start jettisoning parts of it for worthless crap.
   20. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 30, 2014 at 03:55 PM (#4760693)
@JonHeymanCBS: hearing that #mysteryteam may be getting more involved in lester talks


Don't know if he's serious, or this is self-parody.

   21. Poster Nutbag Posted: July 30, 2014 at 04:01 PM (#4760709)
I can see the Orioles and Pirates as players, but why do the A's keep getting mentioned? That would be a nice pickup, but what could they really trade away to get Lester? They don't have any real prospects left and I don't think Hammel + Milone gets it done at all. The "stud prospect" that the Sox seek just isn't there.
   22. madvillain Posted: July 30, 2014 at 04:01 PM (#4760712)
A PTBNL for Doobie.


Last time I made this trade I ended up face down in the alley with a missing 6 hours.
   23. Spahn Insane Posted: July 30, 2014 at 04:03 PM (#4760715)
Last time I made this trade I ended up face down in the alley with a missing 6 hours.

Time to scope out some better sh*t.
   24. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: July 30, 2014 at 04:07 PM (#4760717)
Lester is obviously a huge upgrade for the O's, but if Bundy, Gausman, or Harvey are involved, I'm going to be very disappointed.

I'd also prefer not to give up Eduardo Rodriguez, Chance Sisco, or Christian Walker, but I'm guessing at least one of those guys have to be involved.


If the Sox don't get one of those top three Cherington is an idiot. I'd be shocked and pissed if they trade Lester without getting a top 50 prospect.
   25. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 30, 2014 at 04:33 PM (#4760752)
You're not getting a top 50 prospect for a two month rental of anybody. If someone offers more than what a sandwich pick is worth, Lester will be traded; otherwise he won't.
   26. Nasty Nate Posted: July 30, 2014 at 04:36 PM (#4760759)
You're not getting a top 50 prospect for a two month rental of anybody.

Doesn't that happen fairly frequently?
   27. BDC Posted: July 30, 2014 at 04:37 PM (#4760760)
stories of Lester and/or Lackey being clubhouse malcontents and selfish players

It's so bad that after a game the two of them get into three cabs.
   28. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 30, 2014 at 04:59 PM (#4760787)
By the way, no one seriously thinks John Lackey is going to show up for spring training next year if his contract still calls for the minimum, right?
   29. Nasty Nate Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:02 PM (#4760792)
By the way, no one seriously thinks John Lackey is going to show up for spring training next year if his contract still calls for the minimum, right?

There was a big long thread about it here. Myself and a few others thought there was a chance he would play for the minimum; most people thought there was no chance. I find it more implausible that he will retire. In any event, it seems like an extension is the most likely outcome.
   30. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:08 PM (#4760797)
You're not getting a top 50 prospect for a two month rental of anybody.

If they can't, they might as well hang onto him, and either resign him, or take the pick for the QO.
   31. The District Attorney Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:09 PM (#4760801)
The Mets got Zack Wheeler (#55 by BA, #52 by BP) for two months of Carlos Beltran... and the reaction was largely "whoa, people don't get those kind of deals anymore." So, that's at least something that people have been saying for a couple years. Whether it holds up to scrutiny, I don't know.

It probably bodes well that I'm sure many teams are in the mix for Lester -- everyone can always use a lefty ace starter. The Sox would be well-advised, in any event, to try to get one exceptional prospect, rather than a "package." And also to trade with the Giants.
   32. Sonic Youk Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:13 PM (#4760804)
The Cubs got a pretty crazy package for Garza just last year.
   33. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:17 PM (#4760808)
Greinke got Segura (52), Pence got Singleton (34), Sabathia got LaPorta (30). That's pretty much the going rate for a rental.
   34. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:17 PM (#4760809)
Jean Segura was the #55 prospect by BA when he was dealt for 2 months of Zack Greinke.

Justin Smoak was the #13 prospect by BA when he was dealt for 2 months of Cliff Lee.

Mike Olt was the #22 prospect by BA when he was dealt for 2 months of Matt Garza.

   35. Nasty Nate Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:18 PM (#4760812)
I think the Lee and Sabathia rental trades fetched a top 50 prospect. Holliday to the Cardinals might have gotten a top 50 guy.
   36. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:19 PM (#4760813)
By the way, no one seriously thinks John Lackey is going to show up for spring training next year if his contract still calls for the minimum, right?


Who is going to pay him $500k to sit on his couch?

How is ever getting a new contract if he hadn't finished obligations of this one?

If he tries shenanigans, what's to stop Sox from suing for recovery, given he was paid very well in exchange for his agreement to okay for minimum under these circumstances?

Or maybe Lackey wants one last decent contract and treats it like the FA walk off year it is.
   37. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:25 PM (#4760825)
I think the Lee and Sabathia rental trades fetched a top 50 prospect. Holliday to the Cardinals might have gotten a top 50 guy.


Yup, Holliday landed eternal trade chip Brett Wallace (37) and Lee was actually a prospect with #20 Brandon Phillips (and Grady Sizemore) were dealt for Colon.
   38. BDC Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:26 PM (#4760828)
But Pot Arb, Lackey could just retire. And after a year of retirement, try to return à la Andy Pettitte, if he feels like it: pitchers will get chances. Not saying it's likely, but it's possible. As for shenanigans, the contract works both ways: it's not a shenanigan to break the contract if you don't take any of the money. Still a free country, and all that. So he has that leverage, for sure, unless I misunderstand something as usual :)
   39. Nasty Nate Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:29 PM (#4760830)
unless I misunderstand something as usual :)

He doesn't get to be a free agent after sitting out a year.
   40. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:31 PM (#4760833)
Lackey has reportedly asked for a trade.
   41. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:52 PM (#4760847)
Lester to the Dodgers for Kemp or Ethier, and a prospect. Then, the Red Sox re-sign Lester in the off season.
   42. Nasty Nate Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:57 PM (#4760853)
Lackey has reportedly asked for a trade.


Where do you see this?
   43. Juan Uribe Marching and Chowder Society Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:59 PM (#4760856)
Lester to the Dodgers for Kemp or Ethier, and a prospect. Then, the Red Sox re-sign Lester in the off season.


I would jump at this deal, were I Ned Colletti.
   44. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: July 30, 2014 at 06:07 PM (#4760860)
It would be returning a favor.
   45. Dale Sams Posted: July 30, 2014 at 06:13 PM (#4760868)
Looking at Sox payroll next year for guys currently signed....is that even 100 mill?

It's not like the Sox can't afford Lester. and trading a guy like Lackey doesn't make any sense.
   46. PreservedFish Posted: July 30, 2014 at 06:14 PM (#4760870)
It's worth looking at the performances of those prospects. The pre-season rankings are only so useful. For example Mike Olt was plummeting down the rankings when he was traded.
   47. Non-Youkilidian Geometry Posted: July 30, 2014 at 07:23 PM (#4760907)
It's so bad that after a game the two of them get into three cabs.

The third one is for transporting beer and fried chicken.
   48. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 30, 2014 at 08:39 PM (#4760966)
But Pot Arb, Lackey could just retire. And after a year of retirement, try to return à la Andy Pettitte, if he feels like it: pitchers will get chances.


The acquiring team would retain his rights for two years following the retirement, so if he did that, he'd be right back where he started. And if he waited it out, he'd be a 38-year-old trying to come back from a multi-year layoff, which seems like pretty tough sledding.
   49. Spahn Insane Posted: July 30, 2014 at 08:44 PM (#4760974)
46: You're correct about Olt, but he wasn't really seen as the centerpiece of the Garza package; CJ Edwards was.
   50. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: July 30, 2014 at 09:08 PM (#4760988)
the Red Sox could simply be shipping Lester and Lackey out to get something(s) the system doesn't have at present -- impact, up-the-middle prospects -- to join Xander Bogaerts in crew in the coming new-look Sox, all before making another trade with their depth elsewhere to fix the rotation.

Really none of the analysis in the linked piece makes sense, but this is a real head-scratcher.

Other developments have also occurred. The Cards are out, since they got Masterson. The Indians (named as one of Rosenthal's potential landing spots for Lackey, along with Florida) would seem to be out, since they dealt Masterson. The Orioles thing seemed to be put to bed by Duquette a few hours ago. Plus of course that Doubront's already been shipped out.

I really just want it to be over.
   51. BDC Posted: July 30, 2014 at 09:47 PM (#4761007)
Got it. See, I didn't understand :)

Seems like a rough rule on veterans. Once a contract is over it should be over.

   52. Textbook Editor Posted: July 31, 2014 at 12:04 AM (#4761072)
The acquiring team would retain his rights for two years following the retirement


This, I did not know. Thanks for this info.
   53. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: July 31, 2014 at 12:21 AM (#4761076)
Got it. See, I didn't understand :)

Seems like a rough rule on veterans. Once a contract is over it should be over.


Rather than pull a Pettitte, he could attempt the same move perfected by Andy's one-time pal, Roger. If he retires and then unretires before Aug. 1, he would fulfill the final year of the deal and would thus be eligible for FA the following season.* Now, he'd only get a prorated portion of the contract, but the Sox (or whatever team has his rights) wouldn't get as much value out of the asset as they would with a full season.

To me, the one-year option at the minimum should be seen as leverage.

* The CBA doesn't ID this situation directly, but it seems the most logical interpreation given the rules governing unretiring players.
   54. Nasty Nate Posted: July 31, 2014 at 12:32 AM (#4761079)
When did Clemens do that?
   55. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: July 31, 2014 at 12:41 AM (#4761080)
When did Clemens do that?


During his last two seasons, one with the Astros and one with the Yankees, he didn't return to the club until after the season had started. I wasn't suggesting that Roger's motivation (I would guess, in his case, it was to avoid spring training and/or have a more manageable workload) was the same as what Lackey's would be, just that Lackey could follow the mid-season return path blazed by his fellow Texan.
   56. Nasty Nate Posted: July 31, 2014 at 12:47 AM (#4761083)
But Clemens wasn't under contract.
   57. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: July 31, 2014 at 12:58 AM (#4761087)
I know that Nate. I was merely using Clemens as an example of a player who didn't begin his season at the start of the baseball season - that's all. And this is the same way Bob was using Andy Pettitte's retirement/unretirement as a path Lackey could follow, even though the details there weren't identical either.

   58. Nasty Nate Posted: July 31, 2014 at 01:07 AM (#4761089)
Gotcha. I was confused and thought there was some 1980s holdout I had forgotten about.
I think the Sox had some contract disputes during one of those offseasons.
   59. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: July 31, 2014 at 01:10 AM (#4761090)
I think the Sox had some contract disputes during one of those offseasons.


That does sound familiar.
   60. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: July 31, 2014 at 06:32 AM (#4761110)
Another possibility was mentioned on NESN last night: They'll trade Lester (and maybe Lackey) for prospects, then package prospects in the off season for Stanton.
   61. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: July 31, 2014 at 07:16 AM (#4761113)
Clemens held out prior to the 1987 season.
   62. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:15 AM (#4761133)
Another possibility was mentioned on NESN last night: They'll trade Lester (and maybe Lackey) for prospects, then package prospects in the off season for Stanton.


If Miami trades Stanton next year, they need to shut down that operation. It seems to me that they have a bunch of young talent on the roster and in the pipeline. Why would they need to trade him off when they will have a bunch of cheap and young pieces around him?
   63. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:37 AM (#4761144)
The acquiring team would retain his rights for two years following the retirement


(I should note that this isn't automatic - two years is just the length of the term a team is allowed to carry a player on the Voluntarily Retired List.)
   64. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:40 AM (#4761147)
Jeff Passan says a deal is done for Lester. But where?
   65. Nasty Nate Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:42 AM (#4761149)
Jesus take the wheel
   66. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:44 AM (#4761152)
Lester to the A's, good God.
   67. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:46 AM (#4761153)
West coast team, says Passan.
   68. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:48 AM (#4761155)
Oakland??? Whoa. Coke to AG.
   69. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:49 AM (#4761156)
For Cespedes! Johnny Gomes included.
   70. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:51 AM (#4761159)
Holy crap, I think that's a terrible deal at first blush. Why deal Cespedes?
   71. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:51 AM (#4761160)
Now THAT is a ######-a trade. Just by wow factor.
   72. Sonic Youk Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:51 AM (#4761161)
that is a completely bizarre trade
   73. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:53 AM (#4761162)
For Cespedes! Johnny Gomes included.

Wait? What? Why? Huh?
   74. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:53 AM (#4761163)
WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?
   75. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:56 AM (#4761166)
Jeez, has anyone loaded up a pitching staff as well as Oakland has done this year?
   76. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:56 AM (#4761167)
Cespedes is FA after 2015 FWIW. And Gray/Lester/Shark/Kazmir is a heckuva rotation. I guess Brad Pitt knows what he's doing.
   77. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:56 AM (#4761168)
I need more details about this trade before I kill myself.
   78. SG Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:57 AM (#4761171)
Holy crap, I think that's a terrible deal at first blush. Why deal Cespedes?


I guess since he'd be a free agent after next season(I think it's written into his contract) and the A's didn't think they'd be able to keep him? Still seems like too much to pay, but Lester is likely to have more impact than Cespedes in a short postseason series.
   79. Fat Al Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:58 AM (#4761173)
Cespedes is FA after 2015 FWIW. And Gray/Lester/Shark/Kazmir is a heckuva rotation. I guess Brad Pitt knows what he's doing.


Not Arb after '15? That's what B-R says.
   80. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:59 AM (#4761174)

Not Arb after '15? That's what B-R says.


I think he got an opt-out like the Japanese FA get.
   81. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 31, 2014 at 10:00 AM (#4761175)
Not Arb after '15? That's what B-R says.

Correct. His contract prohibits Arb.
   82. Sonic Youk Posted: July 31, 2014 at 10:01 AM (#4761178)
If hes a free agent after next year, Im guessing Cespedes isn't unhappy about this. He should flat out mash in Fenway.
   83. Nasty Nate Posted: July 31, 2014 at 10:02 AM (#4761182)
Didn't someone predict a Cespedes-based deal in a thread here recently?
   84. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: July 31, 2014 at 10:04 AM (#4761184)
Is there a lot of LHP in the AL West? Gomes may be a better fit down the stretch anyway.
   85. Nasty Nate Posted: July 31, 2014 at 10:04 AM (#4761187)
I found it. Post #13 in this thread. Great username/comment synergy.
   86. JJ1986 Posted: July 31, 2014 at 10:08 AM (#4761191)
Poor jason hammel.
   87. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: July 31, 2014 at 10:10 AM (#4761197)
Looks like Oakland is throwing in a competitive draft pick, which would make up for losing Lester in FA just by itself.
   88. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 31, 2014 at 10:11 AM (#4761203)
That deal makes total sense from the A's POV. You know damn well their greatest nightmare would be a one game shootout against King Felix, which makes winning the division almost a necessity.

Oh, and whoever doubted that the introduction of a second wild card would make those division races a lot more honest?
   89. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: July 31, 2014 at 11:50 AM (#4761350)
As a Sox fan, I would just like to say: Thanks for all the memories Jon. And all the best in the future.
   90. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: July 31, 2014 at 03:36 PM (#4761781)
Is it just me, or is Cespedes not actually that good? I went to check out his stats after various A's friends of mine threatened self-harm upon hear of this trade, and -- he doesn't walk, doesn't hit for average, doesn't play defense all that well, and reliably misses time every year. He seems like a perfectly reasonable price, if not better, for a pitcher of Lester's ability.

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