This....does not seem like a good idea.

I don't know about this one.

EDIT: Second to post, and Coke owed already...

So, I'm trying to look at this from a point of view other than the "BBTF would run a team that led the league in marginal wins / marginal $, but finish 4th in their division every year".

It looks like the Reds are trying to compete through about 2015. That would seem to be their windows for Votto, Phillips, Bruce and Stubbs to be under control and in their prime. They'll also have Cueto, Latos and Chapman secured or able to be secured in their pitching staff, I think

After that, there's a good chance that salaries make them dreadful until about 2020. But that's the small/mid-market success cycle, isn't it?

Edit: also, given that Phillips was making $12M this year, it seems like 6/72 isn't an _awful_ deal keeping him out of free agency. Someone probably would have paid him for a shorter contract, but higher AAV in the offseason.

$12M is the market rate for a league average ballplayer at this point. Phillips is a solidly above average player - barring injury or sudden collapse, he'll be significantly underpaid for the first couple seasons of this deal.

He's unlikely to be worth the money at the back end, but I'd bet the value evens out from the bargain in the first few years.

Where is this money coming from?

As a Reds' fan I'm going to play ignorant and not act like these deals are going to hurt in the future. Live in the present, enjoy it while it's here, all that jazz.

Dumber-than-Marcel for Phillips:

8 Bat + 1 Run + 21 Rep + 3 Pos + 3 Def = +36 RAR

That's currently a near $20M player. Getting him for $12M is a great deal, even if his mid-30s aren't good.

2Bmen typically decline very sharply as they age into their 30s. I don't think you can assume a typical aging curve here.

"Very sharply" - I'd like to see the data on that. I know people say they have a rougher decline, and I buy that relative to average you'd rather have a CF than a 2B, but exactly how sharp a decline should be expected? Do all 2B exhibit this decline or is it concentrated more in particular subsets?

I'd say getting a near $20M player for $12M is a deal that will require a very sharp decline indeed to be a bad bet.

As a Reds' fan I'm going to play ignorant and not act like these deals are going to hurt in the future. Live in the present, enjoy it while it's here, all that jazz.

Flags fly forever. It looks to me like the Reds see that there's a bit of a power vacuum in the National League right now. The Cardinals lost Pujols, the Brewers lost Fielder, Howard and Utley are out of the Phillies line-up for the forseeable future, the Giants have great pitching but lousy hitting, the Dodgers and Mets have been torpedoed by their owners' financial problems. There's a window of opportunity there, and the Reds are making a push to lock up their crucial players and steal a championship or two before that window closes. We'll see if it works. But it's nice to see them stepping up to the plate and trying to win, now...

[5] I'd rather alternate between 1st and 5th place, rather than stay lodged in 2-4th. It doesn't look like the Reds are paying the wrong talent; they're paying the right talent, but for too long, because they have to.

Votto actually takes a huge paycut in '14 and '15. According to Cot's, he makes $11M this year ($9.5 + 1.5 deferred signing bonus), $19M in '13 ($17+2), then just $12M in '14 and $14M in '15. Without knowing the details of BP's contract, it sure looks to me like Castellini, Jockety & Co. are doing what they can to make it all work.

That being said, it sure would have made me feel better if both Votto and BP were signed for 2 fewer years.

Dumber-than-Marcel for Phillips:

8 Bat + 1 Run + 21 Rep + 3 Pos + 3 Def = +36 RAR

That's currently a near $20M player. Getting him for $12M is a great deal, even if his mid-30s aren't good.

MCoA, you're almost certainly smarter than me, but I hate this linear Wins/$ analysis. It *feels* way oversimplified to me. I can't imagine Brandon Phillips getting $20M on the open market or being worth anything like that. I don't have the data to back it up, of course, or I'd be providing you that.

Assuming that the Reds didn't sign Phillips to this extension, what would be the likely "free" alternatives for them at 2B - either through in-house prospects or free agents - and how do they project compared to Phillips?

[11] I think Votto's contract is structured that way to absorb pay raises that Jay Bruce gets those years, keeping the cost of Votto+Bruce mostly constant.

It *feels* way oversimplified to me. I can't imagine Brandon Phillips getting $20M on the open market or being worth anything like that.

Well, it is oversimplified, but this is a message board. I'm not going to pull more than an oversimplified analysis out of my bum. Plus I made the spreadsheet, and I can use it. But what precisely has been simplified away, that should now be added back in and accounted for?

My belief is that players who contribute on the bases and in the field, as well as at the plate, continue to be undervalued in baseball compared to players who hit homers and collect rbis while failing to run or field terribly competently. Brandon Phillips is a significantly better baseball player than Adam Dunn was when he signed for 4/60. I'm cherry-picking a no-field, no-run bopper who collapsed, but I think that the key utility of WAR here - and why I'm using it - is to point out that a Brandon Phillips is better than an Adam Dunn.

It's possible that Phillips would have been undervalued on the open market, perhaps, and the Reds shouldn't have signed him to a market value-ish or slightly better contract now, in the hopes of getting a better deal in the winter. I don't think that's a critique that cuts too deeply, though.

Assuming that the Reds didn't sign Phillips to this extension, what would be the likely "free" alternatives for them at 2B - either through in-house prospects or free agents - and how do they project compared to Phillips?

It would probably be Billy Hamilton by 2014.

It would probably be Billy Hamilton by 2014.

I thought he was their shortstop of the future. Is his defense unlikely to hold up at that position?

$12M is the market rate for a league average ballplayer at this point. Phillips is a solidly above average player - barring injury or sudden collapse, he'll be significantly underpaid for the first couple seasons of this deal.

I'd thought the general consensus was we were at ~$5M for a marginal win, which would put an average player around $10M on the open market? Also, I'm not at all convinced Phillips is above average, perhaps at best a hair better. If you take away his BABIP fueled 2011 offensive spike season, he's pretty consistently hovered right around 2 WAR. I see a 2B who's maybe a bit better than average entering his year 31 season and coming off his best year by far. He may earn his money for a few years, but there's no reason to expect a bargain even early in the contract, and plenty of reasons to expect he'll be worthless by year 5 or 6.

Not a disaster of a contract, but probably an overpay for a guy who's just not that good.

If you take away his BABIP fueled 2011 offensive spike season, he's pretty consistently hovered right around 2 WAR.

Fangraphs and B-Ref disagree strongly about Phillips' defense and baserunning. They have Phillips as a 3.5-4 WAR player before 2011. If you split the difference between them on fielding and baserunning, and discount Phillips' hitting in 2011 almost entirely, he's much more of a 3 WAR player than league average.

Contracts look to me to have escalated significantly this offseason - MLB is absolutely rolling in money, and everyone appears desperate to spend.

Votto actually takes a huge paycut in '14 and '15. According to Cot's, he makes $11M this year ($9.5 + 1.5 deferred signing bonus), $19M in '13 ($17+2), then just $12M in '14 and $14M in '15. Without knowing the details of BP's contract, it sure looks to me like Castellini, Jockety & Co. are doing what they can to make it all work.

The current TV deal is up in '15 or '16, not sure which year. The reds have a lot of payroll signed till that point, with just the decline years of Votto/Phillips after that. While Cincinnati is not the biggest market, the Reds did have extremely good ratings last year. The current deal is ~$12 mil a year, so I expect a considerable bump in revenue with the next TV deal.

#9, #10 I completely agree. When the Latos trade was made, less than 12 months after the Bruce/Cueto extensions, it was apparent the Reds were in win now mode, at least until Votto hit the market. With the Votto/Phillips extension, they have extended the window from '13 to '15-'16, while paying for it from '17 onward. I hope it works out.

MLB is absolutely rolling in money, and everyone appears desperate to spend.

COUGH

And another off the Cubs list ... although again, not one I'm crying over. But I reserve the right to be royally annoyed when Darwin Barney trots out to 2B on opening day 2015.

8 Bat + 1 Run + 21 Rep + 3 Pos + 3 Def = +36 RAR

How do you get this? You're only off in the margins but he's never had above 19 Rrep in his career so I don't see how even Zombie Marcel would project him to 21. Also Chone says he hasn't had a positive defensive season since 2003 ... no major negative ones either, but still can't get him to a positive defensive contribution on that. Using fangraphs? Anyway, not a big deal, still comes out to something like 30 RAR.

On 2B aging -- I took a quickie look at it and most of them do see a substantial drop somewhere around 32-34 with Jeff Kent being the major exception. Now of course if they were prime Joe Morgan in their prime then, even after a substantial drop, they were still a mighty good player. Here's a handful from the expansion era, ages 28-31, 80% games at 2B, at least 8 WAR and 2000 PA (28-31 WAR, 32-37 WAR):

Morgan 41 25 (10, 6, 1.5, 2.5, 3, 2)
Biggio 26 19 (6.5, 5, 1.5, 3, 0, 2.5)
Utley -- not looking good
Sandberg -- no
Alomar -- no
Lopes 15 18 (4.5, 4, 4.5, 0, 0, 1.5)
Polanco 15 10 and counting (3.7, 2.5, 2, 2) -- a lot is glove
R Thompson -- no
Durham 15 11 (3, 3, 4, 0, 1, DNP)
Grich 15 20 (6, 3.5, 4.5, 2, 3, 2) -- he aged better than I remember

Note most of those guys hit a wall by 34, even Grich who produced twice as much value 32-34 as 35-37. And those guys were all better than Phillips from 28-31 (about 12 WAR if he has his typical year). Guys around 12 WAR are:

Hunt -- good at 32, done at 33
Roberts -- hurt at 32 and 33 and so far at 34
Ellis -- 5.4 WAR in 4 seasons and counting.
Knoblauch -- bad, bad, done
D Johnson -- essentially done at 32
Uggla -- this is his age 32
Easley -- 3 WAR but he did hang on until 38
Doran -- 3, 1, 0, 0
McAuliffe -- 2, 2, 0, 0
Herr -- 3 WAR through 35
Hudson -- 2, 1 and counting

That is a doomsday list there gents. The best guy on that list is Mark Ellis. That list suggests the Reds would expect about 4 WAR out of Phillips over this contract which obviously would be terrible. Comps are not destiny but the best-case scenario would seem to be a Lopes-like one where he puts up about 10 WAR ages 32-34 and then zip and, with inflation, that's not a disastrous deal (which others have pointed out already).

As to whether 2B age worse -- probably but I'm not sure that aging curve is any different than a typical 3 WAR per prime year player. But ages ago I did run a simple survival analysis based on seasons played and 2B was the one position with a significantly worse aging curve (Cs hang on forever as backups).

Of course the name you don't see there is Kent who missed the 80% cutoff (unintentional). He had 15 WAR 28-31 then 30 WAR form 32-37, starting with his "MVP" year. Also in the middle of the two groups I highlighted is Whitaker with 27 WAR and Randolph with 18 and, despite my dismissal, Sandberg actually made it to 15 and Alomar to 13 and Boone at 18 isn't necessarily a bad comp to Phillips. So it's not hopeless.

But this looks like a classic GM mistake although Jocketty makes few of those so I wouldn't blame anybody for putting more faith in Jocketty than Play Index. Still, it looks like the classic mistake of paying for an above-average but not good player in his 30s. Those guys just rarely age well and 6 years seems absolutely nuts. Would he really not have taken 4/$50 or thereabouts?

How do you get this? You're only off in the margins but he's never had above 19 Rrep in his career so I don't see how even Zombie Marcel would project him to 21. Also Chone says he hasn't had a positive defensive season since 2003 ... no major negative ones either, but still can't get him to a positive defensive contribution on that. Using fangraphs? Anyway, not a big deal, still comes out to something like 30 RAR.

"Dumber-than-Marcel" is a regressed, weighted average of both Fangraphs and CHONE.

Assuming that the Reds didn't sign Phillips to this extension, what would be the likely "free" alternatives for them at 2B - either through in-house prospects or free agents - and how do they project compared to Phillips?

Paul Janish is a good fielder, bad hitter. Billy Hamilton could move to 2B if Zack Cozart stays at SS. Henry Rodriguez is a top ten prospect in the Reds organization. Didi Gregorious is another decent middle infield prospect in their system. They're actually pretty strong up the middle in the organization.

The second base FA market next year is pretty crappy with Kinsler and Phillips off the market. Kelly Johnson is really the only decent starter, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets an extension if he has a decent start. I guess Marco Scutaro is now a 2B. After that its old guys like Freddy Sanchez and Orlando Hudson, or not quite starters like Macier Izturis, Jeff Keppinger, Ryan Theriot, and Adam Kennedy. And hey, Yuni Betancourt looks good early on at 2b!

I did a similar search - expansion era, 50% of games at 2B, 7-10 WAR between the ages of 28-30.

Harold Reynolds - already on the way down at 30, collapsed
Willie Randolph - still effective into his mid-30s, with two partly lost seasons on the way
Julio Franco - peaked huge at 32, left 2B at 34, overall durable
Ron Hunt - on your list
Bill Doran - on your list
Damian Easley - on your list
Luis Castillo - only two more effective seasons
Jim Gantner - durable but only two productive seasons
Jose Offerman - full collapse
Alfonso Soriano - moved off 2B at 30, kept hitting
Adam Kennedy - one more good season
Freddy Sanchez - good when healthy so far, but very injury prone
Eric Young - remained the exact same player through his 30s
Tim Teufer - on your list

That doesn't look nearly so bad. What's the difference? Is it the 50% / 80% thing?

MCoA, you're almost certainly smarter than me, but I hate this linear Wins/$ analysis. It *feels* way oversimplified to me. I can't imagine Brandon Phillips getting $20M on the open market or being worth anything like that. I don't have the data to back it up, of course, or I'd be providing you that.

The only evidence you need is a couple links down where it tells you Kinsler's $15 M AAV is the highest ever for a 2B. Cano will break that but I don't think he'll hit $20 unless he has a really big year. Still MCoA's point that this type of player (and 2B in particular) are underpaid stands -- but then maybe that's because they seem to age so poorly. Or one could look at the Kinsler deal (somewhere around 18 WAR 27-30 with a typical 2012), note that Phillips is a worse player who got a worse extension and figure that Phillips was paid right around the market rate.

Normally Phillips is the kind of player I'd walk away from. But next year's FA market is pretty bleak (although Aybar may be available) and the Reds are in win now mode and wouldn't want to punt 1-3 wins at 2B by grabbing a Hudson/Ellis. So I can see an argument for re-signing him ... I guess I just can't believe it required a 6/$75 commitment.

More on my earlier post -- just noticed. In the expansion era, only 14 2B have made it to 2000+ PA ages 32-37 and produced at least 8 WAR. Drop the WAR criterion and it's still only 18 of them. So, on the one hand, he only needs to be as good as Velarde or Frank White to make this contract OK; on the other hand, he needs to be the 15th guy in the last 55 years to reach 2000 PA 32-37 as a 2B.

On $/WAR -- it's currently probably closing in on $5.5 and it will keep going up. For long-term contracts, I've been guesstimating an average around $6 but also valuing at $5.5 as a check. It tends not to matter a whole lot. So, for $75 M, you should get either 12.5 WAR or 13.6 WAR over 6 years and we can't project anybody with anything close to that level of accuracy. For 4 WAR, it's a very bad contract no matter what reasonable $/WAR figure you use; for 15 WAR it's pretty much guaranteed to be a good bargain. But, roughly, Phillips is being paid to be average for 6 years whether that production is front-loaded or not.

I looked at 1947-2011, Bs with an OPS+ between 103 and 113, WAR (BBREF) of 6 to 11.

Phillips falls in the middle of that group, closest match was Robbie Thompson- who had one terrific year left then cliff dived

Mark Ellis, Brain Roberts, Lou Whitaker, Dick McAuliffe, Phil Garner, Jerry Priddy... a few others

Phillips could be a good player 6 years from now, the "odds" are that he won't be playable...
6 is... I'd say, 2 years too long.

I don't have anything other than anecdotal evidence, but there's a lot of very good/great 2B who just fell off a cliff at around age 32-34. The prime example is Alomar, who went toasty at 34.

I don't have anything other than anecdotal evidence, but there's a lot of very good/great 2B who just fell off a cliff at around age 32-34. The prime example is Alomar, who went toasty at 34.

Carlos Baerga, Edgardo Alfonso, Chuck Knoblauch....

I didn't run the numbers well enough on this - I eyeballed what I had and assumed. It's really hard to project a player of Phillips' quality to have any value in out-years 5 and 6, even if you don't do a special 2B discount. I went back over things, and I've got Phillips worth something on the order of $60M over six years. Even if you knock off some extra value for being a 2B, it's hard to get this down to horrible or embarrassing. I was arguing it was a good contract, one that should pretty easily realize its value, though, and I think that's not correct.

I think these contracts are just Bobby Bonilla style renegotiations with much shorter amortization periods. No one expects for Phillips to be worth $12 million in 2018. Thinking of it as a $72 million, 4 year-deal amortized over 6 makes it much more palatable. There's always a chance you don't even end up eating the last few years completely, as you can usually find someone to take a flyer on a guy who will eat part of that $12 million anyways.

Carlos Baerga, Edgardo Alfonso, Chuck Knoblauch....

Brian Roberts.

I don't have anything other than anecdotal evidence, but there's a lot of very good/great 2B who just fell off a cliff at around age 32-34. The prime example is Alomar, who went toasty at 34.

Bill James noted that the only position players who "age" worse on average are Catchers

some of it is simply that 2Bs get run into more often than other fielders, you have a slightly higher rate of catastrophic injuries, you also get a higher rate of small nagging injuries to fingers and wrists, plus 2B is frequently the domain of guys who couldn't play SS at the MLB level because they didn't have a good enough arm...

Did Carlos Baerga make it to 30? Like Garry Templeton, I thought he went toasty in his mid twenties.

This thread really makes you appreciate what incredible players Joe Morgan and Eddie Collins were to keep on going like the Energizer bunny...

Marcel has Phillips at +8 runs at a batter? The only time in his career he's done that was last year (+16, using BB-Ref's linear weights). His high before last year was +1. I'll take the under on that +8, please.

Using BB-Ref's PI, from 1893 through 2011, here are the number of 2B who have qualified for the batting title at each age:

20: 5
21: 17
22: 33
23: 73
24: 93
25: 135
26: 148
27: 153
28: 143
29: 143
30: 141
31: 100
32: 79
33: 61
34: 39
35: 28
36: 20
37: 9
38: 5
39: 4
40: 2
41: 2

Did Carlos Baerga make it to 30? Like Garry Templeton, I thought he went toasty in his mid twenties.

Hasn't part of Baerga's decline been attributed to his off-field activities?

Honest question: what position doesn't have players regularly fall off a cliff at around 32-34? Corner OF? 3B? Non-fat 1B? (Also, 1% and 2% 1B.) Point being, they all start to go at that age, don't they? Or to put it more succinctly:

Bill James noted that the only position players who "age" worse on average are Catchers

It's possible that Phillips would have been undervalued on the open market, perhaps, and the Reds shouldn't have signed him to a market value-ish or slightly better contract now, in the hopes of getting a better deal in the winter. I don't think that's a critique that cuts too deeply, though.

I think that is pretty much a guarantee, second baseman get shafted on the open market. I know I've seen at least one study that showed that secondbase gets undervalued fairly consistently on the open market relative to their war value.

I think these contracts are just Bobby Bonilla style renegotiations with much shorter amortization periods. No one expects for Phillips to be worth $12 million in 2018. Thinking of it as a $72 million, 4 year-deal amortized over 6 makes it much more palatable. There's always a chance you don't even end up eating the last few years completely, as you can usually find someone to take a flyer on a guy who will eat part of that $12 million anyways.

That is the way I like to look at long term contracts, but the drawback about that thinking is that the owners don't think like that. At least publicly. On that fifth and sixth year of the deal the owners are going to tell their fans that their budgets are limited to whatever arbitrary number they put out there and include the Phillips contract in the discussion why they couldn't sign someone else.

Paul Janish is a good fielder, bad hitter. Billy Hamilton could move to 2B if Zack Cozart stays at SS. Henry Rodriguez is a top ten prospect in the Reds organization. Didi Gregorious is another decent middle infield prospect in their system. They're actually pretty strong up the middle in the organization.

Janish is a reserve player and nothing more, and he'll be 30 later this year. Hamilton is an exciting talent with the 100 steals last year, but he's still only in high A and wouldn't be ready to take Phillips' place if Phillips wasn't re-signed beyond this season. I'm a big fan of Henry Rodriguez's bat but there are serious doubts about his glove. Didi Gregorious has a great glove but isn't much of a hitter.

Given the upcoming weak FA market and the organization's decision to go all-in for the next few years, I think this makes sense. Phillips is likely to be much better than internal replacements in 2013-14, and I doubt that the money could be better spent elsewhere. It'd be nice if the deal was a year or two shorter, though.

As for aging, Phillips hits for less power and is a step slower than a few years back. It looks like he's trying to be more contact oriented now as a leadoff hitter, but that could be me seeing what I want to see. It is encouraging that he's been highly durable for the past several seasons. Kinsler is a better player but the durability concerns could mean that he ages much faster.

Hamilton is an exciting talent with the 100 steals last year,

I thought I was in a time warp. Didn't realize there was another Billy Hamilton in baseball that that description would have worked on.

That doesn't look nearly so bad. What's the difference? Is it the 50% / 80% thing?

Part of it as you pick up Franco and Soriano. They also exemplify one of the reasons 2B don't age well (caveats ...). Franco was a much better hitter than Phillips -- 123 OPS+, 12 oWAR 28-30 -- and so was able to shift to 1B/DH when the D was no longer tolerable (and he only shows up on your list because of his sub-par defense). Same with Soriano although his down years were at 28 and 29. But still, 32-35 Soriano has produced jusr 4 WAR (+8 Rbat) so isn't really a counter-example.

I intentionally skipped Castillo because he wasn't anything close to a Phillips-style hitter so figured that was more heat than light; skipped Reynolds for the same reason although I honestly don't remember what sort of hitter he was. I think Gantner and Young were just past the point where I stopped looking and I already knew that Gantner didn't do much late in his career so knew he wasn't a counter-example. Young I probably should have checked but, doing it now, it's just 7 WAR over 6 years, only 1 year over 1.4. Randolph I did mention among the group between Phillips-level and elite -- and last year at least Phillips was at that level and so he could belong in that group.

All said and done I think it comes down to whether Phillips is the hitter he showed last year or the one he's shown the last 3-4 years. If he's a true 119 OPS+ hitter then he can possibly withstand a defensive decline and move to LF (or LF/3B/2B and 1B backup supersub) and provide value. Or, at that level of hitting, he does belong in that "very good" group and he should decline to about average 2B if the defense maintains. For what it's worth, ZiPS projects him to a 104 OPS+ this year and 3800 more PA at about his current career level for the rest of his career. That looks to be about only 6-7 WAR over the rest of his career, including this year.

I don't really think comps are destiny but a "realistic upside" for Phillips 32-37 looks something like 4, 3, 3, 1, 1, 1 -- and that seems to be how the Reds will be paying him.

Hamilton is an exciting talent with the 100 steals last year, but he's still only in high A and wouldn't be ready to take Phillips' place if Phillips wasn't re-signed beyond this season.

I am excited to learn about this guy. He stole 103 bases and was only caught 20 times last year. Wow.

He's been on base 6 times this year. One was a HR, so he couldn't steal then. He has two doubles, 3 BBs and 3 SBs already. Awesome, I am definitely going to follow this guy. Here's hoping he gets to the Majors.

I don't really think comps are destiny but a "realistic upside" for Phillips 32-37 looks something like 4, 3, 3, 1, 1, 1 -- and that seems to be how the Reds will be paying him.

Except that year 1 of this contract is this year, and the contract covers ages 31-36.

He's been on base 6 times this year. One was a HR, so he couldn't steal then. He has two doubles, 3 BBs and 3 SBs already. Awesome, I am definitely going to follow this guy. Here's hoping he gets to the Majors.

2-5 last night, 2 steals. It's on!
Edit: Also, it should be noted that he's fittingly playing for the (Bakersfield) Blaze this year.

2-5 last night, 2 steals. It's on!
Edit: Also, it should be noted that he's fittingly playing for the (Bakersfield) Blaze this year.

Slidin' Billy rules. He's as exciting a baserunner as I've ever seen. He's soooo fast and keeps getting better at making decisions on when to run. If he ever hits enough to make it to the majors he's going to be a blast.

He could be better than Esix Snead and Jason Tyner put together!

Phillips could be a good player 6 years from now, the "odds" are that he won't be playable...
6 is... I'd say, 2 years too long.

The six years includes this year:

Phillips had been playing out the $12.5 million option year on his contract, and could have left the Reds following the 2012 season. According to the Associated Press, the new deal adds salaries of $10 million for next year, $11 million in 2014, $12 million in 2015, $13 million in 2016 and $14 million in 2017.

Using BB-Ref's PI, from 1893 through 2011, here are the number of 2B who have qualified for the batting title at each age:

1Bs:
26: 132
27: 163
28: 150
29: 139
30: 131
31: 123
32: 103
33: 94
34: 66
35: 54
36: 46
37: 22
38: 10

different slope, I'd say the real sharp downturn is about 2 years later than it is for 2Bs

OK, so it's a 5-year extension not 6. That makes it a little better but they already had him at 1/12.5 this year, so it's a 5/$60 extension covering 32-36. He still doesn't project to anything better than 6-7 WAR over those 5 years but obviously 6-7 WAR for $60 is better than 6-7 WAR for $72.5, it's just not good.

Since they already had him for this year, even if he flukes into 8 WAR this year doesn't affect whether this extension was a good idea or not.

1Bs:
26: 132
27: 163
28: 150
29: 139
30: 131
31: 123
32: 103
33: 94
34: 66
35: 54
36: 46
37: 22
38: 10

different slope, I'd say the real sharp downturn is about 2 years later than it is for 2Bs

Eyeballin' the two it looks like 2b begin the death march between 30-31 and 1b between 31-32. Extinction for 2b 33-34 and 1b 36-37

different slope, I'd say the real sharp downturn is about 2 years later than it is for 2Bs

The first base numbers are going to be inflated by the fact that many outfielders/third basemen will move to first as they get older.