BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: Replacement Level Yankee Weblog: Projection Blowout

Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Replacement Level Yankee Weblog: Projection Blowout

It’s that time of year again.

The link goes to the AL results. Here are the NL results.

Before clicking on the links can you guess:
1) the projected best team in the AL?
2) the projected worst team in the NL?
3) the projected worst team in the AL?
4) the projected worst team in the NL?
5) How many of the 8 projected playoff teams can you figure?
6) Lastly, just for kicks, what do you suppose the average wins are for the Indians?

Dag Nabbit apealing [sic] his own check swing Posted: March 31, 2010 at 11:49 PM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: general

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

1. Good cripple hitter Posted: April 01, 2010 at 03:03 AM (#3490189)

Yankees
Phillies?
Jays
Pirates

Yankees, Twins, Angels, Red Sox, Phillies, Cards, Rockies, I have no idea... Dodgers?
76

2. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: April 01, 2010 at 03:17 AM (#3490197)

AL : Yankees
NL : Phillies
AL : Royals
NL : Pirates
AL : Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Angels
NL : Phillies, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers
Indians : 73

3. Walt Davis Posted: April 01, 2010 at 03:38 AM (#3490209)

Pirates are too high; Angels too low (but maybe not by much); and, my god, the Blue Jays stink worse than I thought.

Also the Cards are too high (in a true talent sense); the Yanks are probably too high in a true talent sense too (depends a lot on playing time assumptions probably).

On the Indians I was either 5 wins too low or 5 wins too high. I put them at their projection minus 5 but then added the automatic +10 Shapiro factor that all projection systems have and overshot by 5 wins. I'm not sure if I've over-rated their true talent or perhaps the Shapiro adjustment has been reduced to +5.

I'm thinking average runs (per team) for games between AL West teams will be about 3.2

4. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: April 01, 2010 at 03:43 AM (#3490210)

1) the projected best team in the AL?
2) the projected worst team in the NL?
3) the projected worst team in the AL?
4) the projected worst team in the NL?
5) How many of the 8 projected playoff teams can you figure?
6) Lastly, just for kicks, what do you suppose the average wins are for the Indians?

1) Yanks
2) I assume you mean best: Cardinals
3) Royals
4) Nationals
5) yanks, red sox, twins, mariners, phils, cards, dodgers, rockies
6) 75

now i'll look.

5. JJ1986 Posted: April 01, 2010 at 03:54 AM (#3490214)

1) Rays
2) Rockies
3) Blue Jays
4) Astros
5) Yankees, Rays, Twins, Rangers, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies
6) 71

6. meatwad Posted: April 01, 2010 at 04:15 AM (#3490220)

1 yanks
2 phils
3 royals
4 pirates/nats (tie)
5 yanks twins mariners rays dodgers cards phils braves
6 73

7. Hugh Jorgan Posted: April 01, 2010 at 04:43 AM (#3490230)

After looking first(it's been a long day at work)..

Apparently the Yankees are going to be really good and the Red Sox have focused on defense this year...

yeah, it's an old joke already, but still brings a chuckle. It's been a long wait for the season to start.

8. Dag Nabbit apealing [sic] his own check swing Posted: April 01, 2010 at 05:12 AM (#3490240)

I just noticed this -- SG has the Reds ranked over the Brewers, but the Brewers have more wins per simulation.

9. Shock Posted: April 01, 2010 at 05:41 AM (#3490245)

Trivia...

Highest W season: 123 (NYY)
Lowest W season: 44 (TOR)
Highest Minimum W: 70 (BOS)
Lowest Maximum W: 90 (TOR)

This is going to be a #### year.

10. Rich Rifkin Posted: April 01, 2010 at 05:44 AM (#3490247)

Sadly, these various projections almost all have the A's winning about 79 games. Despite that, this is my favorite link every year on Primer. I don't know exactly who does the Replacement Level Yankees, but "thank you," whoever you are. It is great fun to read the results. And the display of them keeps getting better. I like the pie charts.

11. RollingWave Posted: April 01, 2010 at 07:46 AM (#3490256)

Sadly, these various projections almost all have the A's winning about 79 games. Despite that, this is my favorite link every year on Primer. I don't know exactly who does the Replacement Level Yankees, but "thank you," whoever you are. It is great fun to read the results. And the display of them keeps getting better. I like the pie charts.

both of their main founders post here at least semi frequently

12. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: April 01, 2010 at 10:55 AM (#3490272)

I'm the only founder. SG came in when I took I hiatus around the time of the fire, and as I've moved away from writing, has become the main contributor.

All credit for this stuff goes to him.

13. fhomess Posted: April 01, 2010 at 06:49 PM (#3490581)

1. Yankees
2. Dodgers
3. Orioles
4. Nationals
5. Yankees, Twins, Rangers, Red Sox; Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants
6. Indians Wins: 77

... And my results
1. Correct
2. I really don't think it'll be the Cards. They always strike me as just good enough to win their division, but not significantly better than the other teams in it.
3. Kind of surprised to see the gap between the O's and Jays - figured they'd be close.
4. Nope
5. Got the AL right and the NL division leaders. Missed on NL WC.
6. Off by 3

14. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: April 01, 2010 at 10:31 PM (#3490784)

3. Kind of surprised to see the gap between the O's and Jays - figured they'd be close.

The O's have some good young pitching coming together, along with Markakis, Jones & Wieters. They'll be non-terrible.

15. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: April 01, 2010 at 10:34 PM (#3490787)

I only wish the A's were able to compete with the Mariners.

Naw, I snark, but I'm looking forward to the AL West this year. Should be fun.

16. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: April 01, 2010 at 10:52 PM (#3490799)

Naw, I snark, but I'm looking forward to the AL West this year. Should be fun.

Seconded.
Lots of IFs, but IF the A's are in the hunt in mid-September, I'll be happy.
.500 or bust!

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

<< Back to main

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Replacement Level Yankee Weblog: Projection Blowout

Reader Comments and Retorts

Support BBTF

Bookmarks

Hot Topics