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1. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: January 28, 2013 at 07:31 PM (#4356944)Just looked at his BBRef page and his line for his first year in the majors reads Did not play in major leagues (Injured)
A great one in the "might have been" category.
You must be young. If Bob Horner had been a prospect a little longer, I would probably remember him at each of those stages.
"You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is 'never get involved in a land war in Asia' - but only slightly less well-known is this: 'Never draft Nick Johnson in a league that charges transaction fees!'"
NJ 268/399/441, 123 OPS+
JO 298/398/456, 129 OPS+
The shape a bit different due to BA. Of course we'll never know what the early injuries cost Johnson in terms of talent but I have a hard time seeing an upside beyond Giambi (280/403/522, 141). Defensively he was just below average so better than Giambi but not close to Olerud. All three, ummm, added little on the basepaths. :-)
His b-r sims list is not a good one. Not surprising -- guys who hit this well almost always have longer careers. The two best are John Jaha (269/371/479, 120) and Nick Etten (277/371/423, 126). I'd never heard of Etten before. He was mostly a WW2 beneficiary but he did hit quite well in 41 and 42.
By the way, we are in the greatest Nick era of all-time. Markakis and Swisher appear to be the career WAR leaders among Nicks, followed by Johnson and we've also got Hundley. Etten, Esasky and the odd Altrock (check out his b-r page ... make note of his first and last appearances) seem the only other competition.
The Mick on his own might have been worth more than all the Nicks in MLB history combined.
Plus a full pension. Johnson managed to rack up 11 years of major league service time over his career. He averaged about 75 games per year of service.
IIRC, at first the medical staff thought Nick would be fine by 2007 spring training - he missed the whole season.
I never quite got it - early in his career the Yankees would put him in as a defensive replacement for Jason Giambi. To my eyes, he was not a particular improvement; Giambi threw like a wounded butterfly, but was reasonably proficient at receiving throws and catching pop-ups. Nick seemed to have none of those skills.
"If you're looking for someone to fill the #1 spot, and you're determined not to take Johnson as a continued show of confidence (and I realize that's not what the list is for), I would suggest Ryan Anderson, who I think is a better greatness bet than Sean Burroughs."
That's a quicker strikeout than the Gashouse Gorillas vs. Bugs Bunny.
I always thought Rany J. did a good job moonlighting on baseball at BPro. His colleagues all slammed Ichiro (the 2nd surest Hall of Famer behind Pujols at #29) pretty hard in that piece.
Rany nailed Nick the Stick with this comment:
"Look, this was not an isolated injury for Johnson. He has a history of fragility that this injury only emphasized. Compare him to D'Angelo Jimenez: Jimenez was in a car accident and broke his neck, was expected to miss the whole year, but was back in action by August. Johnson suffered his injury while swinging the bat--something you sort of have to do as a hitter--and the injury was so unexpected and strange that they're still not sure what exactly happened. It's a very, very bad sign when a non-traumatic injury should cause you to miss an entire year.
On top of that, he's missed a year of development, and hitters coming back from wrist injuries usually struggle their first season back. That might not happen with Johnson, but I have no way of knowing that. All I know is that his history of injury makes him something less than an ideal prospect."
Yeah, I was the dope who kept drafting/keeping Nick Johnson year after year in fantasy, thinking "if he stays healthy, he's a steal!" So I've always had a love/hate relationship with him.
On the plus side, I got flashes of brilliance in 2003 and a really nice 2006 when everyone else had given up on him. On the minus side, 75% of the time he was using up a DL slot and constantly forcing me to rely on someone like Lyle Overbay or Daric Barton at 1B.
Ah, what coulda been.
Always thought that it was weird that Nick Johnson was Larry Bowa's nephew (or something like that). The demeanor obviously doesn't run in the family.
I wonder if Nick could get a job as a hitting coach. I mean, he will probably end up working in some capacity in baseball, what the heck else is he gonna do?
His 2003 was pretty exciting at the time. Not often a 24 year old walks more than he Ks. Ah well.
Nick Johnson
Nick threw very well for a 1st baseman, and that apparently was enough to give him a reputation for good defense coming through the minors, but he wasn't that mobile and not all that good at digging out throws. Of course, the defense probably deteriorated over time due to all the injuries, too.
Then he'll tear a muscle posing for photos afterwards.
When he was traded for Vazquez I was so happy the Yankees got rid of him that I didn't care that they had acquired a guy as good as Vazquez.
One of the darkest days of my Yankee fandom.
Did you care after his first pitch October 20th, 2004?
It really is. Perfect microcosm of BP: some solid insight, hilariously wrong predictions made with such certainty, and Joe Sheehan being Joe Sheehan.
IIRC, he was almost dealt to the Royals around that time for Jermaine Dye. Which would have given us two fragile 1B/DH types.
One of the darkest days of my Yankee fandom.
Seconded
The only other baseball player to look even remotely like Babe Ruth. I thought he was going to be a great one.
It really is. Perfect microcosm of BP: some solid insight, hilariously wrong predictions made with such certainty, and Joe Sheehan being Joe Sheehan.
And with C.C. Sabathia at #18 and Albert Pujols at #29.
i remember how sean burroughs was gonna be a STAH!!!! (along with jeff clemens and brandon wood)
i have to smirk seeing pujols at #29 and roy-o at #8 - along with all those guys being SOOOOOO sure that age 27 = washed up.
youneverknow who is gonna stay healthy let alone be able to hit major league pitching. LOTS of bad guesses
i like your imaginary players league. i wish i had your skillz. i would create an imaginary HOTTTTT guys league, all of who want to clean my house and fix my garage/storage room seeing as how my kidsss top the Major League Mess Created stats
He pretty sure he hurt himself while working out to try and get another shot. Probably 1996.
Some of the players I'm sure are hot. And rich. Like model/fastballer Justin Zoolander, who just signed a 161 million dollar free agent contract. Though not all are human. My cat plays for my team, though he's getting older and will move to left field, with Peter Rabbit taking over in center. Kids stories are a good source for players, and helps get my daughter interested. One of these day's she'll have to take it over from me.
The only person besides Rany who was high on Ichiro was Clay Davenport, who was also the only person who felt that Pujols was worth discussing (as well as Josh Hamilton).
That piece is worth bringing back next time someone talks about how a random collection of Primates could constitute a competitive front office.
Funny; I almost mentioned this myself. I've always felt that Johnson looks like Ruth, but hadn't heard it said anywhere else until now.
Also, Teixeira looks like Joe DiMaggio.
How is the analysis there any worse than what an actual competitive front office would do?
Yeah, he does a little bit. Especially when he was with the Nats and got kinda tubby.
Don't really see it at all.
Damn, I miss "Larry Bowa's" posts; they were one of the highlights of old Primer.
Don't see it either.
Was this the play on which he broke his femur? Which is impressive, in its own way.
It's not; it's pretty much the same as any competitive front office. But player projections and evaluations are pretty much the only advantage the Primer crowd is supposed to have over a real front office, which would presumably have more skills in things like scouting, negotiating, trades, management, etc.
If the best amateur sabermetric minds can't project players any better than a real front office, what are they bringing to the table?
Well, that was also when BP was most worth reading. Of course, times are different now - sabermetrics has been assimilated and we know a lot more about what we don't know. There's not as much room to have a legitimate perspective that contradicts mainstream analysis now. I really enjoyed Kevin Goldstein's work, but I feel like BP lost a bit of their identity when they let the scouts in the door and tried to be all things to everybody, rather than focusing on what got them there in the first place.
14. Chris George, LHP
Sigh...
The "who does Teixeira look like?" sweepstakes ended long ago.
<SIGH>
Not just healthy, durable. Those 276 HBP bounced of Nick/Frank like spitballs off a battleship.
<WEEPS FOR WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN>
Well, they both look like DiMaggio.
:-)
Agreed.
Well, clearly 10-15 years ago there was a wide gulf between actual front offices and what statgeeks could bring to the table. The industry closed that gap... by hiring statgeeks. So _now_ there isn't much of a gap.
The BP discussion referred to is interesting but even if it doesn't show much of an edge even at the time, it's just one tiny slice of an example; I don't think we can extrapolate it out to conclude that even at the time statheads couldn't distinguish themselves in prospect projecting over the insiders. In fact, I thought it was widely accepted that statheads did have a better handle on prospecting at the time. Certainly they had a better handle on player value.
Funny, because when I saw this my mind instantly went back to when the Steelers first became good. They had a wide receiver named Frank Lewis, who was ultimately pushed out by Lynn Swann and John Stallworth because (wait for it) ... he couldn't stay healthy. He eventually had a couple of good years in Buffalo - but what might have been...
-- MWE
I have no doubt that it was widely accepted by statheads.
Loved him as a National, wished he could've found a way to stay healthy. The collision with Kearns in the outfield at Shea Stadium remains the single most traumatic sports injury I've ever seen on live TV. Ugh, I still get shudders.
Just asking for a rotator cuff tear.
I guess the best comp would be the upside of Nick Johnson's hitting talent and the body of Don Baylor.
I think a BTF dream team would be Stars+Scrubs and avoiding signing 2-3 win players to contracts longer than a year. Of course, if you don't get the stars, then you've failed miserably.
Avoid signing 2-3 win players to contracts longer than a year. 2-3 win players are average to above average regulars. In other words pretty good players. In practice this means you don't sign those players, since your competition will offer multiple years, unless you are signing guys like that with injury red flags.
what makes you think that some front offices wouldn't think that a splendid goal?
What makes you think the Marlins don't already know?
The scary thing about Albert Pujols is that it is only one year, and he didn't hold value after promotions. What really drove his figure up was the outrageously good fielding numbers he racked up, Gold-Glove-caliber even after a hefty penalty for the Midwest League-to-majors conversion.
Of course he put up a 157 OPS+ in his rookie year and was one of the most consistent hitters in history, rarely having even a bad month. Nobody was expecting that so I don't ding them for being "wrong" but the not holding value bit was kinda funny. (Less funny are the sample size issues -- that not holding value was 89 PA of 822 OPS at A+ and 15 PAs of suck at AAA.)
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