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Monday, January 28, 2013

Report: Nick Johnson to retire

Nicked-Up, no more.

After an injury-ravaged 10-season career, Nick Johnson has decided to retire, reports Sweeny Murti of WFAN.

Johnson, 34, ends his career with a .268/.399/.441 line. He had 95 homers, 398 RBI and 173 doubles in 3,316 plate appearances.He played for the Yankees, Nationals, Marlins and Orioles.

When healthy, Johnson was excellent at getting on base (again note the career .399 OBP) and had good power. His best season came in 2006 with Washington, when he hit .290/.428/.520 with 23 homers, 77 RBI, 100 runs and 10 stolen bases.

Unfortunately, injuries prevented Johnson from ever fully reaching his potential. He was once ranked as a top-five prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America, but he never reached stardom.

Seemingly snakebitten, Johnson ran the gamut of injuries instead of dealing with one lingering issue. The injuries ranged from a stress fracture in his hand, back problems, a torn wrist ligament, a broken leg and more.

Repoz Posted: January 28, 2013 at 07:12 PM | 80 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: yankees

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   1. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: January 28, 2013 at 07:31 PM (#4356944)
Wow. This makes me feel really old. I remember when he was a fragile prospect. Then he was a fragile major leaguer. Now he will be a fragile retired MLB'er.
   2. Select Storage Device Posted: January 28, 2013 at 07:54 PM (#4356955)
No no, he's still a fragile prospect.
   3. Mayor Blomberg Posted: January 28, 2013 at 07:54 PM (#4356957)
1o years sounds about right for his career, though i'd have guessed that it started and ended earlier.

Just looked at his BBRef page and his line for his first year in the majors reads Did not play in major leagues (Injured)
   4. Bob Meta-Meusel Posted: January 28, 2013 at 07:54 PM (#4356959)
When he hit .345/.525/.548 in AA as a 20 year old in '99 he really looked like something special, and then came injuries, starting with missing all of 2000 with a bad wrist that seemed to take 3 times as long to heal as anyone expected and set the trend for his career.

A great one in the "might have been" category.
   5. Daunte Vicknabbit! Posted: January 28, 2013 at 07:54 PM (#4356960)
I once argued with some friends that a healthy Nick Johnson was more valuable than almost any first-baseman in MLB, including Mark Teixeira, which led to Mark Teixeira being labeled "the poor man's Nick Johnson" by my non-saber friends. I still insist that a healthy Nick Johnson WOULD have a substantially more impressive career than Teix, but we will sadly never know. I think Johnson probably would've been most comparable to John Olerud, with slightly less glove but slightly more homers, a fringe Hall of Famer, if he could've stayed on the field.
   6. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: January 28, 2013 at 07:58 PM (#4356963)
Nick Johnson but Durable would be one of the best players in baseball. A pity he never really was.
   7. billyshears Posted: January 28, 2013 at 08:02 PM (#4356964)
So I guess I shouldn't pick him in fantasy thinking that this is the year he stays healthy? Though, this will probably be the year he stays healthy. Unless he spends a lot of time washing his truck or something.
   8. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: January 28, 2013 at 08:12 PM (#4356972)
I thought he had already retired.
   9. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: January 28, 2013 at 08:13 PM (#4356974)
It could've been a brilliant career.
   10. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: January 28, 2013 at 08:16 PM (#4356978)
Wow. This makes me feel really old. I remember when he was a fragile prospect. Then he was a fragile major leaguer. Now he will be a fragile retired MLB'er.


You must be young. If Bob Horner had been a prospect a little longer, I would probably remember him at each of those stages.
   11. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: January 28, 2013 at 08:20 PM (#4356980)
this just means he'll play in 10 fewer games this year than if he hadn't retired
   12. jobu Posted: January 28, 2013 at 08:47 PM (#4356996)
So I guess I shouldn't pick him in fantasy thinking that this is the year he stays healthy? Though, this will probably be the year he stays healthy. Unless he spends a lot of time washing his truck or something

"You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is 'never get involved in a land war in Asia' - but only slightly less well-known is this: 'Never draft Nick Johnson in a league that charges transaction fees!'"
   13. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 28, 2013 at 08:57 PM (#4357000)
Unfortunately at the official announcement, Johnson slipped on a slight bump in the carpeting, causing him to fall over. He bumped his head on the table and had spent time in hospital with a head injury. Though the head injury was diagnosed as minor, the sudden jarring to the neck has left him temporarily immobilised. He then had an opportunity to utilise a wheelchair but broke both thumbs as they jammed in the wheels the first time he attempted to use it. Nick Johnson is expected to make a full recovery assuming he never ventures anywhere outside of the padded home he has custom built.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: January 28, 2013 at 08:57 PM (#4357001)
The Olerud comp looks pretty spot on. There were flashes but Johnson never showed big time power.

NJ 268/399/441, 123 OPS+
JO 298/398/456, 129 OPS+

The shape a bit different due to BA. Of course we'll never know what the early injuries cost Johnson in terms of talent but I have a hard time seeing an upside beyond Giambi (280/403/522, 141). Defensively he was just below average so better than Giambi but not close to Olerud. All three, ummm, added little on the basepaths. :-)

His b-r sims list is not a good one. Not surprising -- guys who hit this well almost always have longer careers. The two best are John Jaha (269/371/479, 120) and Nick Etten (277/371/423, 126). I'd never heard of Etten before. He was mostly a WW2 beneficiary but he did hit quite well in 41 and 42.

By the way, we are in the greatest Nick era of all-time. Markakis and Swisher appear to be the career WAR leaders among Nicks, followed by Johnson and we've also got Hundley. Etten, Esasky and the odd Altrock (check out his b-r page ... make note of his first and last appearances) seem the only other competition.

The Mick on his own might have been worth more than all the Nicks in MLB history combined.
   15. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 28, 2013 at 09:10 PM (#4357009)
Injury prone and an incredibly slow healer, doubly cursed. Rob Neyer projected him as the "1st Baseman of the Aughts", but it was not to be. Still, he made more than $29M. A good life awaits.
   16. Willie Mayspedes Posted: January 28, 2013 at 09:15 PM (#4357013)
Nick Punto still has a chance.
   17. SteveM. Posted: January 28, 2013 at 09:17 PM (#4357015)
Somebody get him a LifeAlert bracelet because a retired Nick Johnson is liable to fall and break his hip.
   18. Boileryard Posted: January 28, 2013 at 09:40 PM (#4357027)
Still, he made more than $29M. A good life awaits.

Plus a full pension. Johnson managed to rack up 11 years of major league service time over his career. He averaged about 75 games per year of service.
   19. TerpNats Posted: January 28, 2013 at 09:48 PM (#4357031)
I still remember that horrible Saturday afternoon at Shea Stadium in 2006 when Nick collided with Austin Kearns while pursuing a popup and was severely injured. Hope the Nats bring him back to D.C. sometime this season to throw out a first ball.
   20. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 28, 2013 at 09:57 PM (#4357037)
I still remember that horrible Saturday afternoon at Shea Stadium in 2006 when Nick collided with Austin Kearns while pursuing a popup and was severely injured.

IIRC, at first the medical staff thought Nick would be fine by 2007 spring training - he missed the whole season.
   21. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: January 28, 2013 at 10:49 PM (#4357062)
I don't think any retired player has ever been on the DL. Watch this space.

I never quite got it - early in his career the Yankees would put him in as a defensive replacement for Jason Giambi. To my eyes, he was not a particular improvement; Giambi threw like a wounded butterfly, but was reasonably proficient at receiving throws and catching pop-ups. Nick seemed to have none of those skills.
   22. catomi01 Posted: January 28, 2013 at 11:49 PM (#4357092)
If memory serves me right, he always got good marks in prospect reports at the time...although how much of that was wishcasting him into the next don mattingly by yankees fans, I don't remember...i do think he (initially at least) had better range than the average 1B, and would eventually grow into the whole "catching the ball" part of the job.

   23. GregD Posted: January 29, 2013 at 12:03 AM (#4357098)
Hoping Larry B drops by to weigh in with his thoughts, post-Bushmills
   24. salajander Posted: January 29, 2013 at 12:11 AM (#4357103)
   25. jobu Posted: January 29, 2013 at 12:49 AM (#4357117)
From the article in #24, Derek Zumsteg said:
"If you're looking for someone to fill the #1 spot, and you're determined not to take Johnson as a continued show of confidence (and I realize that's not what the list is for), I would suggest Ryan Anderson, who I think is a better greatness bet than Sean Burroughs."

That's a quicker strikeout than the Gashouse Gorillas vs. Bugs Bunny.

I always thought Rany J. did a good job moonlighting on baseball at BPro. His colleagues all slammed Ichiro (the 2nd surest Hall of Famer behind Pujols at #29) pretty hard in that piece.

Rany nailed Nick the Stick with this comment:
"Look, this was not an isolated injury for Johnson. He has a history of fragility that this injury only emphasized. Compare him to D'Angelo Jimenez: Jimenez was in a car accident and broke his neck, was expected to miss the whole year, but was back in action by August. Johnson suffered his injury while swinging the bat--something you sort of have to do as a hitter--and the injury was so unexpected and strange that they're still not sure what exactly happened. It's a very, very bad sign when a non-traumatic injury should cause you to miss an entire year.

On top of that, he's missed a year of development, and hitters coming back from wrist injuries usually struggle their first season back. That might not happen with Johnson, but I have no way of knowing that. All I know is that his history of injury makes him something less than an ideal prospect."
   26. Cooper Nielson Posted: January 29, 2013 at 01:05 AM (#4357127)
So I guess I shouldn't pick him in fantasy thinking that this is the year he stays healthy? Though, this will probably be the year he stays healthy. Unless he spends a lot of time washing his truck or something.

Yeah, I was the dope who kept drafting/keeping Nick Johnson year after year in fantasy, thinking "if he stays healthy, he's a steal!" So I've always had a love/hate relationship with him.

On the plus side, I got flashes of brilliance in 2003 and a really nice 2006 when everyone else had given up on him. On the minus side, 75% of the time he was using up a DL slot and constantly forcing me to rely on someone like Lyle Overbay or Daric Barton at 1B.

Ah, what coulda been.
   27. Cowboy Popup Posted: January 29, 2013 at 01:07 AM (#4357128)
Re #24: JOSE ORTIZ!

Always thought that it was weird that Nick Johnson was Larry Bowa's nephew (or something like that). The demeanor obviously doesn't run in the family.

I wonder if Nick could get a job as a hitting coach. I mean, he will probably end up working in some capacity in baseball, what the heck else is he gonna do?

His 2003 was pretty exciting at the time. Not often a 24 year old walks more than he Ks. Ah well.
   28. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 29, 2013 at 01:14 AM (#4357133)
Can I try this career over?

Nick Johnson
   29. salajander Posted: January 29, 2013 at 01:23 AM (#4357136)
Klapisch: Nick Johnson's fractured fairy tale
TAMPA, Fla. – You study Nick Johnson’s face for the resentment he surely feels toward the fates, a longing for the career he was supposed to have. Johnson has been bruised and broken too many times to count, slammed in the face, wrist, back and leg – so overwhelmed by bad luck, he says, “Maybe I didn’t drink enough milk as a kid.”
   30. salajander Posted: January 29, 2013 at 01:24 AM (#4357138)
dupe
   31. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 29, 2013 at 01:47 AM (#4357143)
. . . I never quite got it - early in his career the Yankees would put him in as a defensive replacement for Jason Giambi. To my eyes, he was not a particular improvement . . .

Nick threw very well for a 1st baseman, and that apparently was enough to give him a reputation for good defense coming through the minors, but he wasn't that mobile and not all that good at digging out throws. Of course, the defense probably deteriorated over time due to all the injuries, too.
   32. OsunaSakata Posted: January 29, 2013 at 06:16 AM (#4357164)
Hope the Nats bring him back to D.C. sometime this season to throw out a first ball.


Then he'll tear a muscle posing for photos afterwards.
   33. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: January 29, 2013 at 06:21 AM (#4357165)
Without Nick Johnson, I never fall in love with baseball and end up finding Neyer or this website. I'm not entirely sure how/why, but in 1998, it was Nick Johnson that captured 12-year-old me's fancy and made me actively start checking minor league box scores before I ever got TRULY interested in MLB. So, yeah, really sad to see Nick go. Still remember exactly where I was when the news hit that he was being called up.
   34. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: January 29, 2013 at 07:02 AM (#4357168)
I'm just glad he was able to retire rather than be humanely destroyed.

When he was traded for Vazquez I was so happy the Yankees got rid of him that I didn't care that they had acquired a guy as good as Vazquez.
   35. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: January 29, 2013 at 07:11 AM (#4357169)
When he was traded for Vazquez I was so happy the Yankees got rid of him that I didn't care that they had acquired a guy as good as Vazquez.

One of the darkest days of my Yankee fandom.
   36. jyjjy Posted: January 29, 2013 at 08:09 AM (#4357174)
When he was traded for Vazquez I was so happy the Yankees got rid of him that I didn't care that they had acquired a guy as good as Vazquez.

Did you care after his first pitch October 20th, 2004?
   37. tfbg9 Posted: January 29, 2013 at 09:19 AM (#4357201)
36-you mixed up the time sequence.
   38. Bitter Mouse Posted: January 29, 2013 at 09:47 AM (#4357214)
That link in 24 is great BTW.
   39. Bourbon Samurai in Asia Posted: January 29, 2013 at 10:16 AM (#4357242)
An important player for the early Nats. My sister's favorite.
   40. BDC Posted: January 29, 2013 at 10:17 AM (#4357246)
This is like learning that Gary Hart has retired from politics, or Deanna Durbin from her movie career.
   41. jmurph Posted: January 29, 2013 at 10:20 AM (#4357248)
That link in 24 is great BTW.


It really is. Perfect microcosm of BP: some solid insight, hilariously wrong predictions made with such certainty, and Joe Sheehan being Joe Sheehan.
   42. crict Posted: January 29, 2013 at 10:45 AM (#4357274)
Juan Rivera, Nick Johnson and Javier Vazquez appeared consecutively in Rotoworld's Player News yesterday. They were, of course, all involved in that trade between the Expos and Yankees in December 2003. If only Randy Choate had done something newsworthy yesterday...
   43. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 29, 2013 at 10:47 AM (#4357277)
That link in 24 is great BTW.


IIRC, he was almost dealt to the Royals around that time for Jermaine Dye. Which would have given us two fragile 1B/DH types.
   44. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 29, 2013 at 10:58 AM (#4357289)
When he was traded for Vazquez I was so happy the Yankees got rid of him that I didn't care that they had acquired a guy as good as Vazquez.

One of the darkest days of my Yankee fandom.


Seconded

The only other baseball player to look even remotely like Babe Ruth. I thought he was going to be a great one.

   45. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: January 29, 2013 at 11:31 AM (#4357326)
That link in 24 is great BTW.


It really is. Perfect microcosm of BP: some solid insight, hilariously wrong predictions made with such certainty, and Joe Sheehan being Joe Sheehan.

And with C.C. Sabathia at #18 and Albert Pujols at #29.
   46. AROM Posted: January 29, 2013 at 11:41 AM (#4357331)
In my APBA league, when creating a season's batch of new prospects for the draft, I'll often model them on a similar MLB prospect. Based on Nick's .500 OBP minor league season, I created Frank Lewis, who has stayed healthy. So here's what a healthy Nick Johnson might have looked like.
   47. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: January 29, 2013 at 11:43 AM (#4357333)
It really is. Perfect microcosm of BP: some solid insight, hilariously wrong predictions made with such certainty, and Joe Sheehan being Joe Sheehan.
What's funny is that Gary Huckaby manages to be exactly right and exactly wrong about Ichiro, all in one line: Suzuki is a tiny little slap hitter. I'll be surprised if he hits 10 home runs during the season. Yes, he might hit .340 in Safeco, but he has to in order to be valuable.
   48. base ball chick Posted: January 29, 2013 at 11:44 AM (#4357335)
i enjoyed that old time link too

i remember how sean burroughs was gonna be a STAH!!!! (along with jeff clemens and brandon wood)

i have to smirk seeing pujols at #29 and roy-o at #8 - along with all those guys being SOOOOOO sure that age 27 = washed up.

youneverknow who is gonna stay healthy let alone be able to hit major league pitching. LOTS of bad guesses
   49. base ball chick Posted: January 29, 2013 at 11:47 AM (#4357337)
and AROM

i like your imaginary players league. i wish i had your skillz. i would create an imaginary HOTTTTT guys league, all of who want to clean my house and fix my garage/storage room seeing as how my kidsss top the Major League Mess Created stats
   50. Ron J2 Posted: January 29, 2013 at 11:58 AM (#4357349)
#21 Maybe Steve Ontiveros. Memory say he "retired" a few times in frustration in the late 90s. Then tried to come back, pitched a few (generally effective) innings and went back on the DL.

He pretty sure he hurt himself while working out to try and get another shot. Probably 1996.
   51. AROM Posted: January 29, 2013 at 12:04 PM (#4357354)
i like your imaginary players league. i wish i had your skillz. i would create an imaginary HOTTTTT guys league, all of who want to clean my house and fix my garage/storage room seeing as how my kidsss top the Major League Mess Created stats


Some of the players I'm sure are hot. And rich. Like model/fastballer Justin Zoolander, who just signed a 161 million dollar free agent contract. Though not all are human. My cat plays for my team, though he's getting older and will move to left field, with Peter Rabbit taking over in center. Kids stories are a good source for players, and helps get my daughter interested. One of these day's she'll have to take it over from me.
   52. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 29, 2013 at 12:20 PM (#4357369)
And with C.C. Sabathia at #18 and Albert Pujols at #29.


The only person besides Rany who was high on Ichiro was Clay Davenport, who was also the only person who felt that Pujols was worth discussing (as well as Josh Hamilton).

That piece is worth bringing back next time someone talks about how a random collection of Primates could constitute a competitive front office.
   53. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 29, 2013 at 12:31 PM (#4357393)
The only other baseball player to look even remotely like Babe Ruth. I thought he was going to be a great one.


Funny; I almost mentioned this myself. I've always felt that Johnson looks like Ruth, but hadn't heard it said anywhere else until now.

Also, Teixeira looks like Joe DiMaggio.
   54. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 29, 2013 at 12:31 PM (#4357396)
That piece is worth bringing back next time someone talks about how a random collection of Primates could constitute a competitive front office.


How is the analysis there any worse than what an actual competitive front office would do?
   55. The Good Face Posted: January 29, 2013 at 12:34 PM (#4357400)
Funny; I almost mentioned this myself. I've always felt that Johnson looks like Ruth, but hadn't heard it said anywhere else until now.


Yeah, he does a little bit. Especially when he was with the Nats and got kinda tubby.

Also, Teixeira looks like Joe DiMaggio.


Don't really see it at all.
   56. just plain joe Posted: January 29, 2013 at 12:39 PM (#4357406)
Hoping Larry B drops by to weigh in with his thoughts, post-Bushmills


Damn, I miss "Larry Bowa's" posts; they were one of the highlights of old Primer.
   57. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 29, 2013 at 12:45 PM (#4357412)
Also, Teixeira looks like Joe DiMaggio.

Don't see it either.
   58. Yonder Alonso in misguided trousers (cardinal) Posted: January 29, 2013 at 12:46 PM (#4357416)
I still remember that horrible Saturday afternoon at Shea Stadium in 2006 when Nick collided with Austin Kearns while pursuing a popup and was severely injured.


Was this the play on which he broke his femur? Which is impressive, in its own way.
   59. Squash Posted: January 29, 2013 at 12:58 PM (#4357426)
I remember being terrified that Ryan Anderson aka the Little Unit was going to come up and make the Mariners unbeatable for the next ten years.
   60. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: January 29, 2013 at 01:35 PM (#4357445)
Yeah, he does a little bit. Especially when he was with the Nats and got kinda tubby.
I can see Johnson and Ruth, but I can't at all see Teixeiraand DiMaggio. Joe just looks so much more...Italian.
   61. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 29, 2013 at 01:56 PM (#4357470)
How is the analysis there any worse than what an actual competitive front office would do?


It's not; it's pretty much the same as any competitive front office. But player projections and evaluations are pretty much the only advantage the Primer crowd is supposed to have over a real front office, which would presumably have more skills in things like scouting, negotiating, trades, management, etc.

If the best amateur sabermetric minds can't project players any better than a real front office, what are they bringing to the table?
   62. McCoy Posted: January 29, 2013 at 01:59 PM (#4357475)
Snark and cookies?
   63. billyshears Posted: January 29, 2013 at 03:30 PM (#4357577)
Perfect microcosm of BP: some solid insight, hilariously wrong predictions made with such certainty, and Joe Sheehan being Joe Sheehan.


Well, that was also when BP was most worth reading. Of course, times are different now - sabermetrics has been assimilated and we know a lot more about what we don't know. There's not as much room to have a legitimate perspective that contradicts mainstream analysis now. I really enjoyed Kevin Goldstein's work, but I feel like BP lost a bit of their identity when they let the scouts in the door and tried to be all things to everybody, rather than focusing on what got them there in the first place.
   64. Zach Posted: January 29, 2013 at 03:33 PM (#4357579)
13. Josh Hamilton, CF
14. Chris George, LHP


Sigh...
   65. Gonfalon B. Posted: January 29, 2013 at 03:38 PM (#4357588)
Teixeira looks like Joe DiMaggio.

The "who does Teixeira look like?" sweepstakes ended long ago.
   66. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 29, 2013 at 03:56 PM (#4357611)
Based on Nick's .500 OBP minor league season, I created Frank Lewis, who has stayed healthy. So here's what a healthy Nick Johnson might have looked like.

<SIGH>

Not just healthy, durable. Those 276 HBP bounced of Nick/Frank like spitballs off a battleship.

<WEEPS FOR WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN>
   67. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 29, 2013 at 03:59 PM (#4357613)
The "who does Teixeira look like?" sweepstakes ended long ago.


Well, they both look like DiMaggio.
   68. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 29, 2013 at 04:00 PM (#4357614)
Well, that was also when BP was most worth reading. Of course, times are different now - sabermetrics has been assimilated and we know a lot more about what we don't know.


:-)

There's not as much room to have a legitimate perspective that contradicts mainstream analysis now. I really enjoyed Kevin Goldstein's work, but I feel like BP lost a bit of their identity when they let the scouts in the door and tried to be all things to everybody, rather than focusing on what got them there in the first place.


Agreed.
   69. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 29, 2013 at 04:03 PM (#4357616)
If the best amateur sabermetric minds can't project players any better than a real front office, what are they bringing to the table?


Well, clearly 10-15 years ago there was a wide gulf between actual front offices and what statgeeks could bring to the table. The industry closed that gap... by hiring statgeeks. So _now_ there isn't much of a gap.

The BP discussion referred to is interesting but even if it doesn't show much of an edge even at the time, it's just one tiny slice of an example; I don't think we can extrapolate it out to conclude that even at the time statheads couldn't distinguish themselves in prospect projecting over the insiders. In fact, I thought it was widely accepted that statheads did have a better handle on prospecting at the time. Certainly they had a better handle on player value.
   70. McCoy Posted: January 29, 2013 at 04:08 PM (#4357622)
The thing is the amateur sabe has different goals than a front office so a direct comparison doesn't really work. As I and other here have said numerous times a BTF dream team would be a team that won 76 games a year but cost 30 million dollars. A team filled with guys that were worth 1 or 2 wins but cost nothing.
   71. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 29, 2013 at 04:09 PM (#4357624)
Based on Nick's .500 OBP minor league season, I created Frank Lewis, who has stayed healthy.


Funny, because when I saw this my mind instantly went back to when the Steelers first became good. They had a wide receiver named Frank Lewis, who was ultimately pushed out by Lynn Swann and John Stallworth because (wait for it) ... he couldn't stay healthy. He eventually had a couple of good years in Buffalo - but what might have been...

-- MWE
   72. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 29, 2013 at 04:18 PM (#4357635)
In fact, I thought it was widely accepted that statheads did have a better handle on prospecting at the time.


I have no doubt that it was widely accepted by statheads.
   73. Depressoteric Posted: January 29, 2013 at 04:24 PM (#4357644)
You know what? If Nick Johnson had used PEDs in order to remain healthy or recover faster, he's just about the only guy for whom I'd say "oh, all right, fair enough."

Loved him as a National, wished he could've found a way to stay healthy. The collision with Kearns in the outfield at Shea Stadium remains the single most traumatic sports injury I've ever seen on live TV. Ugh, I still get shudders.
   74. jack the seal clubber (on the sidelines of life) Posted: January 29, 2013 at 04:26 PM (#4357648)
Hope the Nats bring him back to D.C. sometime this season to throw out a first ball


Just asking for a rotator cuff tear.
   75. AROM Posted: January 29, 2013 at 05:28 PM (#4357715)
Not just healthy, durable. Those 276 HBP bounced of Nick/Frank like spitballs off a battleship.


I guess the best comp would be the upside of Nick Johnson's hitting talent and the body of Don Baylor.

   76. JJ1986 Posted: January 29, 2013 at 05:35 PM (#4357725)
As I and other here have said numerous times a BTF dream team would be a team that won 76 games a year but cost 30 million dollars. A team filled with guys that were worth 1 or 2 wins but cost nothing.


I think a BTF dream team would be Stars+Scrubs and avoiding signing 2-3 win players to contracts longer than a year. Of course, if you don't get the stars, then you've failed miserably.
   77. AROM Posted: January 29, 2013 at 06:07 PM (#4357757)
I think a BTF dream team would be Stars+Scrubs and avoiding signing 2-3 win players to contracts longer than a year. Of course, if you don't get the stars, then you've failed miserably.


Avoid signing 2-3 win players to contracts longer than a year. 2-3 win players are average to above average regulars. In other words pretty good players. In practice this means you don't sign those players, since your competition will offer multiple years, unless you are signing guys like that with injury red flags.
   78. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: January 29, 2013 at 06:41 PM (#4357791)
The thing is the amateur sabe has different goals than a front office so a direct comparison doesn't really work. As I and other here have said numerous times a BTF dream team would be a team that won 76 games a year but cost 30 million dollars. A team filled with guys that were worth 1 or 2 wins but cost nothing.


what makes you think that some front offices wouldn't think that a splendid goal?
   79. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: January 29, 2013 at 06:55 PM (#4357808)
what makes you think that some front offices wouldn't think that a splendid goal?

What makes you think the Marlins don't already know?
   80. Walt Davis Posted: January 29, 2013 at 10:02 PM (#4357869)
Also entertaining from the BPro link:

The scary thing about Albert Pujols is that it is only one year, and he didn't hold value after promotions. What really drove his figure up was the outrageously good fielding numbers he racked up, Gold-Glove-caliber even after a hefty penalty for the Midwest League-to-majors conversion.

Of course he put up a 157 OPS+ in his rookie year and was one of the most consistent hitters in history, rarely having even a bad month. Nobody was expecting that so I don't ding them for being "wrong" but the not holding value bit was kinda funny. (Less funny are the sample size issues -- that not holding value was 89 PA of 822 OPS at A+ and 15 PAs of suck at AAA.)

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