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Saturday, July 15, 2017

Report: Red Sox-White Sox intensify trade talks for Todd Frazier

Dock Ellis Posted: July 15, 2017 at 02:35 PM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: red sox, third basemen, todd frazier, white sox

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: July 15, 2017 at 09:29 PM (#5494188)
An obvious target. FWIW, Trevor Plouffe has continued to struggle in a few PAs at Tampa and Boston has (had?) Peralta down in AAA where he's been awful. Another obvious option is David Freese but the Pirates probably aren't ready to make that trade just yet. Maybe a bit less obvious is Jed Lowrie who's having a nice season but hasn't played much 3B ... as a 2B/SS he can probably handle it but his defense hasn't been great. Desperation would be Eduardo Nunez (Giants) -- it's hard to imagine Nunez's defense is really as bad as Rfield says given teams keep giving him PT but just his bat would be a nice upgrade for the Red Sox.

Lowrie has a cheap option, Freese is already signed for a cheap 2018 and a cheap option so both would provide a slightly longer-term "solution" at 3B or good bench players if Devers is ready along with some Pedroia insurance.
   2. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: July 15, 2017 at 10:40 PM (#5494241)
Walt, "had" is correct, Peralta was released this week. Assuming the cost is minimal it's hard to see Frazier not being a good move. He's flawed but flawed would represent a massive improvement over the .623 OPS the Sox third basemen have posted this year.
   3. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: July 15, 2017 at 11:07 PM (#5494248)
I know that this isn't going to happen and I am using this more to discuss a different topic (Mets hijack?) but what about Jose Reyes? Obviously, his overall numbers look bad (.225/.292/.389 on the season) but he is hitting .404/.431/.745 over his last 50 plate appearances. He has had miserable luck with respect to BABIP (still only .232 on season, and it was around .200 before this recent hot streak, career BABIP is around .300) His defense has been better at SS but he was not very good at SS, but he doesn't have a ton of experience there. He doesn't strike out a ton, and is drawing a good number of walks, and has been hitting for reasonable power as more than 40% of his hits have been for extra bases.

I know the Red Sox are not going to trade for Reyes but is he a bad player having a bad season, or is he a better player than his numbers might indicate?
   4. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: July 15, 2017 at 11:22 PM (#5494251)
Frazier has been a. Pretty steady performer at third for a few years. Reyes has been more up and down in recent years and a very cursory look at the defensive numbers suggests he's rather poor at third while Frazier has been solid. On a staff with four lefty starters defense is a big issue.
   5. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: July 15, 2017 at 11:23 PM (#5494252)
What Reyes looks like to me is a guy who would be a useful utility infielder at this point. Gotta think he'd fit in for some team. One thing is I don't know if teams would shy away due to the off field issues last year.
   6. Ziggy: The Platonic Form of Russell Branyan Posted: July 15, 2017 at 11:30 PM (#5494255)
If this happens I assume it means that Matt Davidson becomes full-time 3B on the south side. What are folks' opinions of him? He's slugging better than he ever did as a minor league player, but he's also 26 so a little more strength (plus a juiced ball) could explain it.
   7. Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com Posted: July 16, 2017 at 02:06 AM (#5494262)
What are folks' opinions of him?

AAAA player at best. It's all boom or bust: homers or Ks.
   8. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: July 16, 2017 at 07:54 AM (#5494270)
I know the Red Sox are not going to trade for Reyes but is he a bad player having a bad season, or is he a better player than his numbers might indicate?


I think Reyes makes some sense for the Sox, but I don't think he'll be going anywhere. Reyes' BABIP is probably the root of his problem, but it's also that he just plain *sucked* til April 21.

In his first 17 games, Reyes hit .097/.176/.129 with a .130 BABIP. Since 4/22, he's hit: .260/.320/.460 (on the button!) in 262 PA with a 21/25 BB/K, 9HR, 4T, 12D, a 10/2 SB/CS, and that's off a 256 BABIP.

His offense seems to have improved further since shifting back to SS full time, too. Reyes' defense at SS is below average by the eyeball test, but certainly within the realm of playable and credible. It's worth noting that he's signed for the league minimum.


   9. formerly dp Posted: July 16, 2017 at 08:50 AM (#5494275)

His offense seems to have improved further since shifting back to SS full time, too. Reyes' defense at SS is below average by the eyeball test, but certainly within the realm of playable and credible. It's worth noting that he's signed for the league minimum.
This could be just posturing, but Alderson really seems to believe that Reyes is the org's best option at SS, in light of his recent play. He reiterated a couple of days ago that he wants the best team on the field--which means Reyes over Rosario, at least until the team falls further out. I don't agree--and if the Mets got a decent offer for Reyes, he'd be gone, but they're also not going to get a decent offer for him. Or maybe any offer.
   10. Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com Posted: July 16, 2017 at 12:12 PM (#5494304)
Frazier has been a. Pretty steady performer at third for a few years.

He has been?

Two years ago he lost the ability to hit. He made up for it (to an extent) by hitting a career high in homers and also drawing walks. This year, his homers are at a more normal-ish level for him, and his batting average is even worse. BUT he's maintained his OPS by drawing a totally uncharacteristically high level of walks. This year, he's so far walked in 14.2% of all PA. That's a big jump over last year's 9.6%. Which itself was a jump from his Cincy days (typically 7-8%).

Has he learned a new approach? Perhaps, but even if that's the case, the enormous leap in walks is unlikely to be sustained. And that leaves you with a lousy batting average and some power.

I get that he can help out the Red Sox. He's also a very good defensive player and a surprisingly opportunistic base stealer. But I really don't see him as being steady in recent years. He's a guy doing a good job staving off decline - but you can see the coming crumbling.
   11. bookbook Posted: July 16, 2017 at 12:37 PM (#5494310)
For gosh sakes. Just call up Devers already.
   12. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: July 16, 2017 at 01:01 PM (#5494315)
Dag - you'd know better than I but looking quickly at his yearly OPS+ numbers he looks pretty consistent to me; 121, 117, 107, 107. Some decline yeah but not bad. The average has dropped a bit which seems a function of a declining BABIP. Has he lost considerable speed in recent years?
   13. Dock Ellis Posted: July 16, 2017 at 01:24 PM (#5494320)
Todd Frazier battled a really bad case of the flu in mid-April and even lost ten pounds. It took some time to get his weight/strength back, and he slugged .337 in May. But he OPS'd .932 in June. While that's certainly higher than his career norms, he can still hit the crap out of the ball.
   14. Dock Ellis Posted: July 16, 2017 at 01:44 PM (#5494325)
He also hits a sihtload of doubles and HR to LF. He's got his flaws as a hitter but man wow I love his bat in Fenway.
   15. John DiFool2 Posted: July 16, 2017 at 06:54 PM (#5494447)
For gosh sakes. Just call up Devers already.


He went 4-4 in his AAA debut, with a homer. [0-fer the next night but I'll take it]

I'd like to see a comprehensive study of "early calls" vs. "delayed calls" and see if there is any truth to the notion that springing for a prospect too early truly can pork their development. If they are still concerned about his D then keeping him in the minors for the nonce makes a certain amount of sense, but frankly there really may not be anything more he can learn down there offensively.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: July 16, 2017 at 09:36 PM (#5494484)
I'd like to see a comprehensive study of "early calls" vs. "delayed calls" and see if there is any truth to the notion that springing for a prospect too early truly can pork their development.

It would be a hard study to do since the best (only?) evidence we have that it was "too soon" is that he flops, then continues to flop (or takes "longer than expected"). There's also clearly selection bias -- teams generally only call up guys at 19-20 when they believe they are ready, otherwise it's usually a desperation reason where they want the kid to fill in for just a couple of weeks.

Anyway, for almost anybody who's 20 or younger, the statistical record is so thin (small sample size) that any projection at that point is little better than guesswork. Scouting and other non-statistical assessment still plays an important role at this stage. The 2012 ZiPS projected Trout to 267/338/414 -- still a solid 106 OPS+ and, with other stuff taken into account, projected as the Angels' best player and was touted as "ZiPS favorite young prospect" ... but that was a tad short of his actual production. :-)

Granted we'd say that ZiPS projected Trout to be "ready" but it also projected (for 2012) just a 3% chance at a 500 SLG and a 2% chance at a 140+ OPS+. His top 3 comps were quite impressive but only one even remotely in his league -- Grady Sizemore, Adam Jones and Rondell White. If we recognize that there's that level of uncertainty in a Trout projection/comp, the expected outcomes for somebody like Devers have to be all over the place. For 2017, he was projected to 243/281/395 (hardly a disaster) but with a top comp at age 20 of Trevor Plouffe (hardly a disaster but hardly screaming "ready!") His Steamer RoS though is up to 268/308/433 which looks like a ready bat in today's game.
   17. kaline Posted: July 17, 2017 at 12:12 PM (#5494597)
Frazier's decline the last year and a half only happens at Down Arrow Park. He's been much better on the road.
   18. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: July 17, 2017 at 12:45 PM (#5494626)
Frazier's decline the last year and a half only happens at Down Arrow Park. He's been much better on the road.
In 2017, he has a lower OPS at home than 10 of the 12 other stadiums he's played in, and it's all BABIP - .144 at home, .283 on the road - leading to an OPS difference of almost .340(!). Last year, it wasn't driven as much by BABIP, but his OPS was still 100 points lower at home. Is there something about the park that doesn't suit Frazier?

   19. I am Ted F'ing Williams Posted: July 17, 2017 at 12:54 PM (#5494637)
I get that he can help out the Red Sox. He's also a very good defensive player and a surprisingly opportunistic base stealer. But I really don't see him as being steady in recent years. He's a guy doing a good job staving off decline - but you can see the coming crumbling.


They'd only need him for 2+ months which is all that he is signed for. Unless his 320 foot fly outs at home become a crap load of HR's and doubles at Fenway, they aren't going to give him a QO and they won't need to give up more than a B-level prospect.

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