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Sunday, February 10, 2019

Report: White Sox offered Machado an eight-year, $250 million deal

Free agent Manny Machado doesn’t appear any closer to accepting a major league deal these days, but we may be starting to get a better idea of the offers that are on the table — at least when it comes to the White Sox. Héctor Gómez of Z Digital reports that the club proposed an eight-year, $250 million offer to Machado, a full $75 million above the previously (and erroneously) reported seven-year, $175 million deal that was said to be in play. Naturally, neither Machado’s agent nor the White Sox have confirmed the report.

So, passing on a $31.25 million/year offer- wondering what that means for the offers he’s hoping to get….

 

QLE Posted: February 10, 2019 at 04:16 AM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hot stove, manny machado, white sox

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   1. eric Posted: February 10, 2019 at 10:58 AM (#5814069)
I'm thinking Stanton's $325mm deal is the starting point from either Harper's or Machado's perspective. Teams, of course, may view things differently. Thus, here we are, a week out from spring training.
   2. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: February 10, 2019 at 11:19 AM (#5814075)
I just don't get the WS interest in Machado. I mean, yes, he's a great player, but the WS have cromulent, if unspectacular, young players at 3B, SS, and 2B, all under team control for 3 or more years. Meanwhile, their OF is a horror show, the impending arrival of Eloy Jimenez notwithstanding. I think Machado is a better player, and will continue to be a better player than Harper. but Machado will be replacing an average or better player, while Harper will be replacing a sub-replacement player. It's possible, not likely, but possible that whoever Machado replaces will be as good or better next year. There's no way Daniel Palka or Nicki Delmonico, or Leury Garcia will be better than Harper.

And normally the go to response would be, "But they can trade whoever Machado replaces for a decent OF". With 1 week to go before spring training begins, and teams finalize their rosters, the window on trades isn't what it was.

Machado will make the WS a better team. I think Harper would make them better still.
   3. DCA Posted: February 10, 2019 at 11:46 AM (#5814084)
Yolmer Sanchez doesn't block Manny Machado. He's a good utility IF.
Tim Anderson doesn't block Manny Machado. He's an average SS.

Yoan Moncada at least has potential, but as a 2B, he doesn't block Manny Machado either.

Harper makes sense too. Only Eloy is sitting on a corner spot (and there's whichever of 1B/DH that Abreu isn't playing). But that makes him equally needed as Machado, not more.
   4. PreservedFish Posted: February 10, 2019 at 12:02 PM (#5814088)
#2 would make sense if Machado were looking for a one-year contract, and not an eight-year contract.
   5. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: February 10, 2019 at 12:09 PM (#5814090)
Yolmer Sanchez doesn't block Manny Machado. He's a good utility IF.
Tim Anderson doesn't block Manny Machado. He's an average SS.

Yoan Moncada at least has potential, but as a 2B, he doesn't block Manny Machado either.


None of them block Machado. I had meant to make that caveat, but I see that I didn't. My bad.

#2 would make sense if Machado were looking for a one-year contract, and not an eight-year contract.


Sanchez is under team control for 3 more years and is only 27.

Anderson is under team control for 4 more years and is only 26.

Moncada is under team control for 5 more years and is only 24.

Again, yes Machado would improve the team. It's just that the OF need is far greater. The marginal gain of replacing a replacement level OF with Harper gains you more than replacing an average+ player with Machado.
   6. filihok Posted: February 10, 2019 at 12:38 PM (#5814098)
Again, yes Machado would improve the team. It's just that the OF need is far greater. The marginal gain of replacing a replacement level OF with Harper gains you more than replacing an average+ player with Machado.

Perhaps the White Sox, for whatever reasons, think that Machado is the better bet going forward, thus are more likely to give him a huge, long-term deal
   7. Walt Davis Posted: February 10, 2019 at 04:20 PM (#5814149)
8/$250 is a serious offer. In NPV terms, it's about the same as 6/$240, 7/$245 and 10/$260 (5% discount). Obviously 8/$250 is better for the White Sox than 6/$240 and better for Machado than 10/$260. Roughly priced to an expectation of 25-30 WAR over the first 6 seasons then hopefully still at least average in years 7 and 8.
   8. JJ1986 Posted: February 10, 2019 at 04:49 PM (#5814157)
Yolmer Sanchez is 26, hasn't been that good and I don't think he was much of a prospect. He's the kind of guy good teams want to replace.
   9. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: February 10, 2019 at 05:06 PM (#5814163)
Yolmer Sanchez is 26, hasn't been that good and I don't think he was much of a prospect. He's the kind of guy good teams want to replace.


I agree. But he's a much better player than whoever is slotted into RF. My critique is merely about allocation of resources. Sanchez probably projects to be a 2-3 WAR player. Whoever they put in RF probably projects to be 1 or less.

Now, if the Sox sign both, then I am all for it.
   10. Greg Pope Posted: February 10, 2019 at 05:07 PM (#5814165)
So, passing on a $31.25 million/year offer- wondering what that means for the offers he’s hoping to get….

Or has already gotten. All of the interested teams have to have made their offers by now. Are the agents just waiting for someone to jump in and offer more?
   11. Walt Davis Posted: February 10, 2019 at 06:02 PM (#5814174)
There's nothing in the article that explicitly says that Machado "rejected" the offer, he just hasn't accepted it -- i.e. he's waiting to see if anybody beats it (or possibly somebody already has). The article suggests he has several offers in roughly this range so he's probably hoping/waiting to see if one of them will add a year, add an opt-out, add $15 M to close the deal.

One of the least useful bits of speculation quoted in the article from Jim Duquette (who apparently later withdrew it) that the Yanks made an offer of 7 or 8 years at $220. 7/$220 and 8/$220 are quite different beasties. If there was any truth to it, I'll guess it was (give or take) 7/$210 with a 1/$30 option with a $10 M buyout, making it 7/$220. I'm guessing the White Sox offer was 8/$240 with the same option.
   12. GregD Posted: February 10, 2019 at 06:02 PM (#5814175)
I would guess a Tampa stadium would draw better. The city/county on that side are bigger (though not insanely so--like 30%) and wealthier (again marginally like 10%), though the St Pete side is denser. Whether it would do well enough to make a difference, I dunno. My sense is that Tampa people I knew literally never drove the bridge; even the beaches that went to were not via the bridge.

By contrast (along with the others) lots of Alameda County people go to SF and while fewer SF people go to Alameda County it isn't uncommon at all to run into SF people on this side of the bay, even just for shopping or social stuff. BART makes a difference of course.
   13. spycake Posted: February 10, 2019 at 06:40 PM (#5814184)
Sanchez probably projects to be a 2-3 WAR player.


Fangraphs Depth Charts pegs Sanchez at 1.5 WAR, in 616 PA.
   14. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: February 10, 2019 at 07:18 PM (#5814187)
OK. On the same site, Machado projects to be a 5.0. Harper projects to be a 4.9. I have no idea who the White Sox plan to put in RF. Leury Garcia projects a 0.1. Nicky Delmonico 0.4. Daniel Palka 0.6
   15. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: February 10, 2019 at 07:20 PM (#5814189)
Eloy Jimenez BTW projects to 3.5.
   16. PreservedFish Posted: February 10, 2019 at 09:31 PM (#5814204)
My critique is merely about allocation of resources. Sanchez probably projects to be a 2-3 WAR player. Whoever they put in RF probably projects to be 1 or less.


Tell me, how does their 2025 3B project vs the 2025 RF?
   17. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: February 10, 2019 at 09:34 PM (#5814205)
Tell me, how does their 2025 3B project vs the 2025 RF?


How does Manny Machado project in 2025?
   18. PreservedFish Posted: February 10, 2019 at 09:44 PM (#5814206)
Pretty great probably? He'll be 32. I think you get the point. You're fixating on short-term fit to a bizarre degree. The Sox won 62 games last year. They don't care about short-term fit. (And their farm is stocked with strong outfield prospects)
   19. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: February 10, 2019 at 10:13 PM (#5814211)
the WS have cromulent, if unspectacular, young players at 3B, SS, and 2B, all under team control for 3 or more years


I guess I think that a player of Machado's quality is far more reliable than a few cromulent young dudes. I don't know how the math works out, but I'd bet you a dollar that the next five years of a 26-year-old superstar are almost always more valuable than a collection of early-mid 20s guys who are average-ish.
   20. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: February 10, 2019 at 10:14 PM (#5814212)
Also?

Harper projects to be a 4.9.


lol

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