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Wednesday, August 09, 2017

Rick Porcello and the 20/20 club no pitcher wants to join

And with Porcello set to make at least nine more starts, the right-hander isn’t out of the woods when it comes to joining the ignominious 20/20 club. In the past 60 years, seven pitchers have lost 20 games one season after winning 20.

Interesting fact #1:  All 7 pairs of seasons were within the narrow range of 1964-65 to ‘76-77.

Interesting fact #2:  Wilbur Wood actually did it twice, and came within a loss of doing it 3 consecutive years:  24-17 in 1972, 24-20 in ‘73, 20-19 in ‘74, and 16-20 in ‘75.

Interesting fact #3, and why wins don’t mean squat:  At first glance, Stan Bahnsen pitched as well both seasons (21-16, 3.60 ERA in ‘72; 18-21, 3.57 in ‘73).  But by bWAR he was much better in ‘73 - 6.2 vs. 3.2 (fWAR says he was equally as good, 3.2 fWAR in ‘72, 3.3 in ‘73).

TDF, FCL Posted: August 09, 2017 at 02:02 PM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: pitchers

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   1. villageidiom Posted: August 10, 2017 at 11:23 AM (#5510441)
Man, Porcello was dealing last night. Until, suddenly, he wasn't. Fortunately Boston had scored 6 by that point which gave Farrell enough time to get him out of there before giving up back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back home runs and blowing the lead.
   2. Tom Nawrocki Posted: August 10, 2017 at 11:47 AM (#5510454)
At first glance, Stan Bahnsen pitched as well both seasons (21-16, 3.60 ERA in ‘72; 18-21, 3.57 in ‘73)


The AL introduced the DH in 1973, and runs scored per game went from 3.47 to 4.28. If you held your ERA steady over those two years, you were doing very, very well.
   3. jmurph Posted: August 10, 2017 at 11:55 AM (#5510458)
Man, Porcello was dealing last night. Until, suddenly, he wasn't. Fortunately Boston had scored 6 by that point which gave Farrell enough time to get him out of there before giving up back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back home runs and blowing the lead.

Is it crazy that I'm still marginally confident when he's pitching?
   4. villageidiom Posted: August 10, 2017 at 12:19 PM (#5510474)
jmurph: no. He's not as bad a pitcher as his record indicates. My lack of confidence has been in the offensive support he gets, but lately that hasn't been much of an issue.
   5. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: August 10, 2017 at 01:18 PM (#5510557)
I'm with vi, He's 14th in the AL in Quality Start % which I think is more useful with starters. It gets rid of the noise of a truly terrible start or two and isn't as dependent on team performance (i.e. run support) as wins/losses. Long story short, Porcello is giving the Sox a chance to win more often than not.
   6. jmurph Posted: August 10, 2017 at 02:35 PM (#5510655)
If Price is back and the rotation in the playoffs is Sale/Price/Porcello/Pomeranz I think I'm going to be totally confident, results be damned.
   7. jmurph Posted: August 10, 2017 at 02:35 PM (#5510656)
Sale and the Killer Ps, eh? This is a thing, right fellas, right?
   8. villageidiom Posted: August 10, 2017 at 02:41 PM (#5510668)
And with Pomeranz doing well, and Sale being Sale, Porcello makes it a pretty damn good trio. Then Rodriguez* is a bit of a wild card because you never know if he's going to get past 5 innings, but he's still good and potentially electric. And hey, pretty soon they have David Price, Number 5 Starter. And that bullpen. Man, we really shouldn't lack confidence with the pitching.

All season long, the offense has been the question. Great players regressed, poor players didn't improve, they went through third basemen like Spinal Tap drummers... Nothing clicked. Then they get Holt back, they promote Devers, and they acquire Nunez, and suddenly they can't be stopped. Remember last year when this team was fun? Watching this team is fun again.

* For the Player's Weekend I was disappointed he didn't go with the nickname "Edgar".
   9. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: August 10, 2017 at 04:02 PM (#5510748)
He's 14th in the AL in Quality Start % which I think is more useful with starters.


As Nate said in the Verlander thread, c'mon . . .
   10. Bad Fish Posted: August 10, 2017 at 04:10 PM (#5510753)
Yeah, I'm with vi and Jose, He isn't lights out this year, but he goes his 6-7 innings every 5 days and he generally gives the team a chance to win. If he's our 4th or 5th best pitcher this year, we are doing pretty, pretty good.
   11. bunyon Posted: August 10, 2017 at 04:53 PM (#5510797)
How will the media handle it if a 20 game loser comes up huge in the playoffs?
   12. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: August 10, 2017 at 04:57 PM (#5510800)
How will the media handle it if a 20 game loser comes up huge in the playoffs?


He didn't lose 20 but check out how Derek Lowe, who was AWFUL in 2004, is remembered in Boston.
   13. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: August 10, 2017 at 06:13 PM (#5510853)
Lowe really was never really awful for the Red Sox. His FIP in 2002, when he was arguably the most deserving Cy Young candidate was 3.34. In 2004, when his ERA was 5.42, his FIP was 4.26. He was a groundball pitcher, and the Red Sox defense was much worse in 2004 than it was in 2002. Obviously, I know you know that and your point was more about what the general perception of Lowe was.

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