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Sunday, July 07, 2013

Ricky Nolasco traded to Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers made their major splash after the trade deadline last season, but this time they pounced early, landing starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco from the Miami Marlins on Saturday in exchange for minor league pitchers Steven Ames, Josh Wall and Angel Sanchez.The Dodgers also acquired relief from the international signing bonus limits valued at $197,000.

I was going to say something witty about this but I got nothing.

Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 07, 2013 at 12:30 AM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dodgers

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   1. Swedish Chef Posted: July 07, 2013 at 10:39 AM (#4486651)
The Dodgers also acquired relief from the international signing bonus limits valued at $197,000.

It's not like the Marlins was going to spend that money anyway.
   2. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 07, 2013 at 11:30 AM (#4486681)
Seriously, it seems like the Dodgers have gone into "must acquire draft budget" mode.
   3. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: July 07, 2013 at 12:13 PM (#4486708)
The Marlins went from a 100m payroll last year to 27.5m on their active roster now. That's some firesale.
   4. puck Posted: July 07, 2013 at 02:56 PM (#4486802)
The Rockies were supposedly interested but did not want to take on Nolasco's salary. If that was the only, or even main sticking point, that seems cheap on their part. This is the last year of his deal, and the Rockies' payroll is $8-10 million lower this year than it has been in recent years.
   5. TerpNats Posted: July 07, 2013 at 03:03 PM (#4486810)
The Marlins went from a 100m payroll last year to 27.5m on their active roster now. That's some firesale.
And they didn't even win anything the year before...other than a new ballpark, of course.
   6. cardsfanboy Posted: July 07, 2013 at 03:03 PM (#4486811)
Fox Sports Midwest just showed a graphic listing Nolasco's rank all time for the Marlins. He leads in about every career category that they have.
   7. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 07, 2013 at 03:10 PM (#4486825)
As this gets Capuano out of the rotation, I'm good with it.
   8. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: July 07, 2013 at 03:30 PM (#4486853)
Fox Sports Midwest just showed a graphic listing Nolasco's rank all time for the Marlins. He leads in about every career category that they have.

It's all volume. He's only got about 40% of Josh Johnson's WAR.
   9. JRVJ Posted: July 07, 2013 at 04:17 PM (#4486910)
Anybody know who these prospects are? Because this doesn't make much sense from a baseball OR business standpoint, unless the prospects are good.
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: July 07, 2013 at 04:23 PM (#4486916)
It's all volume. He's only got about 40% of Josh Johnson's WAR.


I assumed so, Bob Forsch does reasonably well on Cardinal all time lists.... although I didn't know that people still used war (even bb-ref) for pitchers. Just find it notable that he has been on the team long enough to have all those numbers and think it's sad that they don't have many pitchers who have more than a five year career with the team.
   11. puck Posted: July 07, 2013 at 04:33 PM (#4486921)
Marlins top 10 in games started:

Rank  Player          GS    IP
1.  Ricky Nolasco    197  1225.2
2.  Dontrelle Willis 162  1022.2
3.  Josh Johnson     144   916.2
4.  Anibal Sanchez   132   794.1
5.  A
.JBurnett     131   853.2
6.  Brad Penny       130   781.2
7.  Ryan Dempster    121   759.2
8.  Pat Rapp         115   665.2
9.  Josh Beckett     103   609.0
10. Chris Volstad    102   584.0 
   12. zonk Posted: July 07, 2013 at 04:46 PM (#4486933)
Marlins top 10 in games started:

Rank Player GS IP
1. Ricky Nolasco 197 1225.2
2. Dontrelle Willis 162 1022.2
3. Josh Johnson 144 916.2
4. Anibal Sanchez 132 794.1
5. A.J. Burnett 131 853.2
6. Brad Penny 130 781.2
7. Ryan Dempster 121 759.2
8. Pat Rapp 115 665.2
9. Josh Beckett 103 609.0
10. Chris Volstad 102 584.0


The top two are former Cubs farmhands, with Dempster obviously having had a significant tour of Cub duty -- the Volstad nightmares continues to this day, as well. Add to that -- Sanchez supposedly had a deal worked out with the Cubs this past winter before shopping it back to the Tigers.

That seems a rather neat confluence of transactions, given that none of the 4 (or 5 if you include the multiverse) were actually involved in any of the same deals.
   13. akrasian Posted: July 07, 2013 at 04:56 PM (#4486950)
Anybody know who these prospects are? Because this doesn't make much sense from a baseball OR business standpoint, unless the prospects are good.

A 26 year old middle reliever, who has been hammered in two callups to the majors this season, but has decent stuff. A 25 year old who has been closing in AAA, but is likely to be a middle reliever in the majors, and a 23 year old starter who had a break out year in 2011 in low A, but has struggled since. Nice stuff, but very thin and has trouble with consistent command. He's the only one the Dodgers might miss, and that is far from a sure thing. I'd expect the Dodgers to sign a couple of promising players from the DR with the added money for international signings. And Nolasco is a big improvement over the back of their current rotation.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: July 07, 2013 at 05:43 PM (#4487007)
How does this not make business sense? The Marlins get out from under $5 M or so in salary. We also like to talk about sell high -- Nolasco had an 87 ERA+ from 2009-12 and he's had a half-season flash of above-averageness so they've flipped that for salary relief. It's not clear to me they did any worse in a baseball sense than the Cubs did for Feldman.

Also Houston has pulled slightly ahead in the race for the #1 draft pick. And the White Sox, Brewers, Mets and Cubs aren't far behind either. The Marlins need to get worse fast if they want to fulfill their dream of breaking the heart of their remaining fan when they draft somebody who will sign for $1 M with the #1 pick.
   15. JRVJ Posted: July 07, 2013 at 09:22 PM (#4487161)
Walt, it doesn't make business sense to me because Loria's three-card Monte only Works as long as it doesn't become an absurd joke.

If the Marlins, with their ridiculously low payroll, had eaten almost all of Nolasco's salary AND gotten very good prospects back, that makes sense to me because they can keep their card game going (plug mínimum wage kids into the system next year while also cutting salary in the near future).

I forget who it was, but somebody mentioned on one of these boards that a team somewhere should really look into being a clearing house for bad contracts, using the money that they get from the league as a way to turn overpriced (but valuable) veteran talent into cheap, young talent. Well, the Marlins are doing neither here......
   16. Sean Forman Posted: July 07, 2013 at 09:45 PM (#4487174)

I forget who it was, but somebody mentioned on one of these boards that a team somewhere should really look into being a clearing house for bad contracts, using the money that they
get from the league as a way to turn overpriced (but valuable) veteran talent into cheap, young talent. Well, the Marlins are doing neither here......


That was me. What would the Phillies give you to take Cliff Lee or Ryan Howard right now at full freight? and then what would someone pay you to take them at a league minimum deal for x years.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: July 07, 2013 at 10:24 PM (#4487200)
Walt, it doesn't make business sense to me because Loria's three-card Monte only Works as long as it doesn't become an absurd joke.

I think we passed that level long ago. Unfortunately (a) league revenue and revenue sharing means he doesn't need to run a good 3-card Monte game. He's probably more scared of the MLBPA on this one than he is the public. (b) worst-case scenario is that he sells the team for a few hundred million dollars.

Money-grubbing scumbag with monopoly power is an occupation that offers great pay (incl guaranteed income) and great job security. :-) It's not quite as good as being king but less of your free time is eaten up by ceremonial traditions.
   18. JRVJ Posted: July 07, 2013 at 10:44 PM (#4487229)
16, Noted that it was you. Ryan Howard, I agree on. Cliff Lee, actually, I think the Phillies will have QUITE a lot of buyers for Cliff if they choose to trade him.

17, Ok, so he should be afraid of MLBPA more than the public. Bet you that MLBPA sees this deal as another case of Loria being a chiseler and puts pressure on him (if nothing else, because Miami CAN run a higher payroll than it is running, which hurts aens).
   19. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 08, 2013 at 02:53 AM (#4487333)
Noted that it was you. Ryan Howard, I agree on.


But they have to flip him fast, before he hits a couple homers and drops them to 3rd place in the draft.
   20. fra paolo Posted: July 08, 2013 at 10:35 AM (#4487492)
Loria's three-card Monte only Works as long as it doesn't become an absurd joke.

The Marlins are still the exemplar of Jonah Keri's chapter in Baseball Between the Numbers entitled "Is Wayne Huizenga a Genius?". In that respect, they are the model franchise of your typical BPro/sabermetrically-influenced baseball fan/Primate circa early 2000s.

Going into the 2012 season, and with the advantage now of a little bit of retrospect, we can see that the NL East was a bit weak that season, but also that the Marlins' farm system was thin. The Marlins needed reinforcements from elsewhere. Loria went all-in, pursuing top talent in the free-agent market and loading up for the kind of pennant run he also attempted in 2005. Unfortunately, the beneficiary in 2012 of a thin NL East turned out to be the Nationals, as the Marlins simply failed on the field starting in June.

Faced with this complete breakdown of strategy, what is an owner to do? The farm system is still thin. The current roster couldn't pull it off and now the NL East looks a bit tougher with the Nationals' wonder-rotation plus Bryce Harper basically handing them the NL East pennant for years to come, as we all (less Sam H) seemed to think.

So the off-season fire sale pulls the Marlins farm system up from #28 (in 2012) to #5 in the 2013 BA ranking. As Walt duly noted, they've sold high on Nolasco, who wasn't a great prize, but brought in some bullpen depth.

Of course Loria is a post-modern re-imagining of a grasping Gilded Age plutocrat, but it's possible to argue that he's doing it by the sabermetric book.
   21. Martin Hemner Posted: July 08, 2013 at 11:13 AM (#4487544)
Also Houston has pulled slightly ahead in the race for the #1 draft pick. And the White Sox, Brewers, Mets and Cubs aren't far behind either. The Marlins need to get worse fast if they want to fulfill their dream of breaking the heart of their remaining fan when they draft somebody who will sign for $1 M with the #1 pick.

With Nolasco, the Marlins were running major league quality starters out there four out of five days for a few weeks (Nolasco, Fernandez, Turner, Eovaldi). Not that those last three guys are locks, but they were definitely not the doormat they were in April and May.

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