Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

River Ave Blues: Jesus Montero and ZiPS

And from the comments…“Cano will hit over .299. I’ll bet my life savings on that.” Way over…like this season’s .302!

You might have seen this earlier, but Dan Szymborski posted his 2012 Yankees ZiPS Projections early Monday afternoon, the first team of the offseason. You can click the link and peruse all of the projections at your leisure, but I’m going to spend some time focusing on everyone’s favorite player, Jesus Montero. We’ll discuss the other guys at some point this offseason … eventually.

Following his big September debut (.328/.406/.590 and a .421 wOBA), the ZiPS system forecasts a .271/.333/.486 batting line with 37 doubles and 27 homers in 579 at-bats for Montero in 2012. At first glance, that might seen a bit disappointing because of the generally low AVG and the OBP, but it most definitely shouldn’t be. I said this on Twitter, but if Montero does that next season, he’ll probably win Rookie of the Year even if the majority of his at-bats come as a DH*. ZiPS isn’t being tricked by that big September either, the system called for almost exactly the same thing for 2011: a .276/.334/.503 line with 34 doubles and 28 homers in 539 at-bats.

...We’ve talked about the whole DH/backup catcher thing, but putting it into practice is much easier said than done. The ZiPS numbers don’t mean anything at the end of the day, but they’re a nice little reminder of just how much Montero can help the Yankees if given the chance.

Repoz Posted: October 25, 2011 at 09:25 AM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: projections, sabermetrics, yankees, zips

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. RollingWave Posted: October 25, 2011 at 09:49 AM (#3974641)
If ZIPs tell us anything it's that Derek Jeter will be an epic black hole for the Yankees. though luckily everyone else should still be good enough to hold that up.

That and need to find some SP or spray whatever fairy dust they gave Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon this year.
   2. John DiFool2 Posted: October 25, 2011 at 01:32 PM (#3974714)
I'd imagine Lavarnway will have a similar projection; interesting that both are C/DH's...
   3. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 25, 2011 at 01:46 PM (#3974727)
I expect Lavarnway to come in a good step lower than Montero. Lavarnway has only one excellent hitting season in his career, Montero has two.
   4. SG Posted: October 25, 2011 at 01:47 PM (#3974728)
Yeah, that and the two year age gap. I've got Lavarnway with a slight edge in OBP (about .05) but about .50 worse in SLG.
   5. Blastin Posted: October 25, 2011 at 01:58 PM (#3974741)
No, this is the best comment:

"If they are talking about Montero with 27-28hr and a .500 slg% based on his minor lg stats for 2012, what would be the prediction for Jorge Vazquez? Chato was lower in average, but in just nine more AAA games, Jorge had 14 more HR, 26 more rbi!!, and 50 points higher in Slg%. Based on Montero’s projections, yes, he would average a strikeout per game, but so what, Chato should be at .260, 38hr, and .540 slg%. Now that’s ROOKIE OF THE YEAR!!!! And he will do that if he ever got a chance!!! But I am sure somehow his projections will be lower, which is crazy!!"


Anyway, I do think a few of them will hit better, but a few will hit worse. It is, after all, a projection, not a prediction.
   6. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 25, 2011 at 02:04 PM (#3974751)
Anyway, I do think a few of them will hit better, but a few will hit worse. It is, after all, a projection, not a prediction.
This is true, but remember, anyone who performs better than Dan's predicts on your favorite team is evidence of his horrible bias aganist the Yankees/Red Sox/Name Your Club. And anyone who performs worse is evidence that Dan doesn't know what the hell he's doing, otherwise how could he be so wrong?

The only reasonable conclusion? ZiPS sucks.
   7. Blastin Posted: October 25, 2011 at 02:11 PM (#3974758)
Heh.

I find comparing to projections fun for its own sake.
   8. Blastin Posted: October 25, 2011 at 02:19 PM (#3974767)
Wow the guy on there who loves Jorge Vasquez is hilarious.

Does this happen with every team? Other team fans, is there some clear AAAA player that you've seen people like inexplicably?
   9. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 25, 2011 at 02:24 PM (#3974773)
Does this happen with every team? Other team fans, is there some clear AAAA player that you've seen people like inexplicably?


Oh hell yeah. I imagine any projection for Lavarnway that is less than Wieters' projection is going to get a rise out of people this year (not here but among the sports radio crowd). Years ago there was a Casey Fossum love that was rather disturbing (we couldn't give him up for Bartolo Colon back when Colon was good). I am sure every team has their guys.

It's the backup quarterback phenomenon. Some guys are awfully good until they have to actually play.
   10. Blastin Posted: October 25, 2011 at 02:35 PM (#3974792)
I remember Casey Fossum being THOUGHT to be good enough to be the centerpiece of the Schilling trade. Guess ARI bought into it.
   11. Blastin Posted: October 25, 2011 at 02:36 PM (#3974795)
I remember we were really sad when we traded Brandon Claussen. Yes, he was left-handed and he BEAT THE METS ONE DAY OHMAHGAH.
   12. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 25, 2011 at 02:37 PM (#3974797)
Years ago there was a Casey Fossum love that was rather disturbing (we couldn't give him up for Bartolo Colon back when Colon was good).
I'd like to defend the Casey Fossum love.

1) The trade for Colon was to be for just one season of Colon. His contract expired after 2003. Fossum had less than a full season of service time, so he was under team control for six more years.
2) Casey Fossum was really freakin' good before he blew out his shoulder in May 2003. In the high minors in 2001-2002, he struck out 158 and walked 34 in 143 innings, with an ERA a little over 3.00. He put up a 132 ERA+ with 100 innings in the majors with 100 Ks and 30 walks in 2002 after being promoted out of Pawtucket. In 2003, before he blew out his shoulder, Fossum had an ERA around 4 with excellent peripherals. Then he blew out his shoulder.
3) It wasn't just fans - the Boston Red Sox, under GM Theo Epstein, refused to trade Fossum for Colon.

Now, it's possible this was a bad call because Fossum was likely to blow out his shoulder - he had, shall we say, a non-traditional pitcher's build - but I wouldn't have traded six years of Casey Fossum's projection in 2003 for one year of Bartolo Colon.
   13. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 25, 2011 at 02:37 PM (#3974799)
Other team fans, is there some clear AAAA player that you've seen people like inexplicably?

I believe the BBTF group think has also veered in this direction a time or two.
   14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 25, 2011 at 02:39 PM (#3974803)
I remember Casey Fossum being THOUGHT to be good enough to be the centerpiece of the Schilling trade. Guess ARI bought into it.
Fossum hurt his shoulder in May 2003, and lost his stuff entirely. He had surgery on his shoulder in September, before the Schilling trade in November. Everyone involved knew this wasn't the same Casey Fossum - the fact that Fossum had surgery on his shoulder was not a secret of any sort.
   15. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: October 25, 2011 at 02:45 PM (#3974815)
I remember we were really sad when we traded Brandon Claussen. Yes, he was left-handed and he BEAT THE METS ONE DAY OHMAHGAH.

It probably had more to do with the fact that he was rated the 37th best prospect in baseball according to BA prior to the '02 season. He injured himself in '02 and was working his way back in '03 when he was dealt. He turned out not to be much but to compare Vazquez and Claussen is silly.
   16. Blastin Posted: October 25, 2011 at 02:49 PM (#3974823)
You're right. It's hardly a straight line at all, as that was a guy who didn't turn into what he could have been and Vasquez is not one with potential.
   17. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 25, 2011 at 02:54 PM (#3974830)
I never bought into Fossum even pre-injury. My recollection is the Sox had a shot at Colon in 2002 to have a year and a half of him (I think thhe idea was it would have been part of the Cliff Floyd deal).

I probably undersold Fossum but I just never got excited about him.
   18. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: October 25, 2011 at 04:43 PM (#3974983)
The Giants seem to specialize in AAAA teddy bears: Dan Runzler, John Bowker, Nate Schierholtz.
   19. Accent Shallow Posted: October 25, 2011 at 04:51 PM (#3974998)
The Giants seem to specialize in AAAA teddy bears: Dan Runzler, John Bowker, Nate Schierholtz.


I didn't pay a ton of attention to Giants middle relievers this past year, so it's surprising to me that Runzler was that bad, especially after smacking the minors around, and being solid in '09 and '10. Anyone have any insight?

(I do remember Runzler being a bone of contention in re: the 2010 ZiPS)
   20. Bourbon Samurai in Asia Posted: October 25, 2011 at 04:54 PM (#3975002)

Does this happen with every team? Other team fans, is there some clear AAAA player that you've seen people like inexplicably?


A's fans have only a sad certainty that all of our hitting prospects will fail.
   21. RJ in TO Posted: October 25, 2011 at 05:17 PM (#3975034)
For the Jays, I remember Domingo Martinez, who I was convinced was going to be a beast of a hitter. This impression was only helped by his first cup of coffee, when he went 5 for 8 with 2 HR. Unfortunately for him, he ended up getting stuck behind John Olerud and then (after a trade) Frank Thomas.

But he still retired as a lifetime 0.409 hitter in the majors.
   22. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: October 25, 2011 at 05:30 PM (#3975056)
Brad Komminsk hit 20 HR in the Sally league at age 19, .322/.458/.606 with 33 HR and 110 BB at A at Age 20, another 50 HR and 150 BB at AA and AAA the next two years...then became Brad Komminisk. I still have never figured that one out.
   23. Austin Posted: October 25, 2011 at 06:49 PM (#3975141)
I've got Lavarnway with a slight edge in OBP (about .05) but about .50 worse in SLG.


That's a strange projection - a .383 OBP and a -.014 SLG? That sounds like Brett Gardner's dream line. I suppose the negative slugging comes from running the bases backwards upon putting the ball in play?
   24. Walt Davis Posted: October 26, 2011 at 01:03 AM (#3975440)
Komminsk and Fossum are prospect busts not AAAA heroes.

But he still retired as a lifetime 0.409 hitter in the majors.

Yeah, but look at that dreadful walk rate!

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
dirk
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT:  2014 College Football pre-season thread
(83 - 4:00am, Aug 31)
Last: Infinite Joost (Voxter)

NewsblogDavid Justice Says Put Barry Bonds in Baseball Hall of Fame Despite Steroid Use Late In Career
(165 - 3:44am, Aug 31)
Last: Jimmy

NewsblogRangers Designate Mike Carp For Assignment – MLB Trade Rumors
(14 - 3:37am, Aug 31)
Last: rlc

NewsblogOT: Politics, August 2014: DNC criticizes Christie’s economic record with baseball video
(6261 - 2:32am, Aug 31)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogSullivan: Why Mike Trout -- and the rest of the league -- is having trouble with the high stuff
(4 - 2:25am, Aug 31)
Last: smileyy

NewsblogDodgers Use Wall of Infielders
(25 - 1:49am, Aug 31)
Last: Traderdave

NewsblogOT: NBC.news: Valve isn’t making one gaming console, but multiple ‘Steam machines’
(771 - 1:24am, Aug 31)
Last: DJS and the Infinite Sadness

NewsblogMasahiro Tanaka shut down with 'general arm soreness'
(7 - 1:10am, Aug 31)
Last: DFA

NewsblogOrioles Acquire Kelly Johnson
(8 - 12:42am, Aug 31)
Last: andrewberg

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 8-30-2014
(95 - 12:26am, Aug 31)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogWhat's Wrong With Baseball?
(47 - 12:22am, Aug 31)
Last: Curse of the Andino

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread August, 2014
(889 - 10:58pm, Aug 30)
Last: ursus arctos

NewsblogOrioles Acquire Alejandro De Aza
(2 - 10:56pm, Aug 30)
Last: Der-K and the statistical werewolves.

NewsblogOT: The NHL is finally back thread, part 2
(970 - 10:06pm, Aug 30)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogWatch a Japanese baseball player try to hit a 186 mph fastball (Video)
(27 - 9:48pm, Aug 30)
Last: Arbitol Dijaler

Page rendered in 0.3301 seconds
52 querie(s) executed