And from the comments…“Cano will hit over .299. I’ll bet my life savings on that.” Way over…like this season’s .302!
You might have seen this earlier, but Dan Szymborski posted his 2012 Yankees ZiPS Projections early Monday afternoon, the first team of the offseason. You can click the link and peruse all of the projections at your leisure, but I’m going to spend some time focusing on everyone’s favorite player, Jesus Montero. We’ll discuss the other guys at some point this offseason … eventually.
Following his big September debut (.328/.406/.590 and a .421 wOBA), the ZiPS system forecasts a .271/.333/.486 batting line with 37 doubles and 27 homers in 579 at-bats for Montero in 2012. At first glance, that might seen a bit disappointing because of the generally low AVG and the OBP, but it most definitely shouldn’t be. I said this on Twitter, but if Montero does that next season, he’ll probably win Rookie of the Year even if the majority of his at-bats come as a DH*. ZiPS isn’t being tricked by that big September either, the system called for almost exactly the same thing for 2011: a .276/.334/.503 line with 34 doubles and 28 homers in 539 at-bats.
...We’ve talked about the whole DH/backup catcher thing, but putting it into practice is much easier said than done. The ZiPS numbers don’t mean anything at the end of the day, but they’re a nice little reminder of just how much Montero can help the Yankees if given the chance.
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1. RollingWave Posted: October 25, 2011 at 09:49 AM (#3974641)That and need to find some SP or spray whatever fairy dust they gave Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon this year.
"If they are talking about Montero with 27-28hr and a .500 slg% based on his minor lg stats for 2012, what would be the prediction for Jorge Vazquez? Chato was lower in average, but in just nine more AAA games, Jorge had 14 more HR, 26 more rbi!!, and 50 points higher in Slg%. Based on Montero’s projections, yes, he would average a strikeout per game, but so what, Chato should be at .260, 38hr, and .540 slg%. Now that’s ROOKIE OF THE YEAR!!!! And he will do that if he ever got a chance!!! But I am sure somehow his projections will be lower, which is crazy!!"
Anyway, I do think a few of them will hit better, but a few will hit worse. It is, after all, a projection, not a prediction.
The only reasonable conclusion? ZiPS sucks.
I find comparing to projections fun for its own sake.
Does this happen with every team? Other team fans, is there some clear AAAA player that you've seen people like inexplicably?
Oh hell yeah. I imagine any projection for Lavarnway that is less than Wieters' projection is going to get a rise out of people this year (not here but among the sports radio crowd). Years ago there was a Casey Fossum love that was rather disturbing (we couldn't give him up for Bartolo Colon back when Colon was good). I am sure every team has their guys.
It's the backup quarterback phenomenon. Some guys are awfully good until they have to actually play.
1) The trade for Colon was to be for just one season of Colon. His contract expired after 2003. Fossum had less than a full season of service time, so he was under team control for six more years.
2) Casey Fossum was really freakin' good before he blew out his shoulder in May 2003. In the high minors in 2001-2002, he struck out 158 and walked 34 in 143 innings, with an ERA a little over 3.00. He put up a 132 ERA+ with 100 innings in the majors with 100 Ks and 30 walks in 2002 after being promoted out of Pawtucket. In 2003, before he blew out his shoulder, Fossum had an ERA around 4 with excellent peripherals. Then he blew out his shoulder.
3) It wasn't just fans - the Boston Red Sox, under GM Theo Epstein, refused to trade Fossum for Colon.
Now, it's possible this was a bad call because Fossum was likely to blow out his shoulder - he had, shall we say, a non-traditional pitcher's build - but I wouldn't have traded six years of Casey Fossum's projection in 2003 for one year of Bartolo Colon.
I believe the BBTF group think has also veered in this direction a time or two.
It probably had more to do with the fact that he was rated the 37th best prospect in baseball according to BA prior to the '02 season. He injured himself in '02 and was working his way back in '03 when he was dealt. He turned out not to be much but to compare Vazquez and Claussen is silly.
I probably undersold Fossum but I just never got excited about him.
I didn't pay a ton of attention to Giants middle relievers this past year, so it's surprising to me that Runzler was that bad, especially after smacking the minors around, and being solid in '09 and '10. Anyone have any insight?
(I do remember Runzler being a bone of contention in re: the 2010 ZiPS)
A's fans have only a sad certainty that all of our hitting prospects will fail.
But he still retired as a lifetime 0.409 hitter in the majors.
That's a strange projection - a .383 OBP and a -.014 SLG? That sounds like Brett Gardner's dream line. I suppose the negative slugging comes from running the bases backwards upon putting the ball in play?
But he still retired as a lifetime 0.409 hitter in the majors.
Yeah, but look at that dreadful walk rate!
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