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Wednesday, December 14, 2011

RLYW: CAIRO 2012 v0.3 Extremely Early and Completely Useless Projected Standings

Anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 100,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 13, 2011.  These were run with Aramis Ramirez as a Brewer, but I didn’t remove any of the non-tendered players from yesterday from their rosters.

NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: December 14, 2011 at 06:33 PM | 30 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: projections, sabermetrics, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: December 14, 2011 at 08:35 PM (#4016500)
Meant to put this in the intro but here are the top 5 AL teams:

NYY 94
TEX 93
BOS 91
LAA 90
DET 89
   2. Greg K Posted: December 14, 2011 at 08:35 PM (#4016501)
Indians do surprisingly well. I haven't been paying attention, are they in a "going for it" mode? Is their pitching up to snuff?
   3. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: December 14, 2011 at 08:40 PM (#4016506)
I'll take the over on the Rays. 85 seems very low.
   4. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: December 14, 2011 at 08:40 PM (#4016507)
Indians better than the Rays? Even with the scheduling differences, that seems odd.
   5. andrewberg Posted: December 14, 2011 at 08:41 PM (#4016510)
Apparently the Twins are projected to have every meaningful player miss 80+ games again.
   6. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 14, 2011 at 08:44 PM (#4016512)
I'll take under on the Mets.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 14, 2011 at 08:47 PM (#4016514)
Seems too similar to last years standings, but the admit its too early in the offseason.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 14, 2011 at 08:47 PM (#4016515)
Apparently the Twins are projected to have every meaningful player miss 80+ games again.

They have no pitching. The ZiPs projection was scary bad on the pitching front; one above avg. SP and one above avg. RP IIRC.
   9. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: December 14, 2011 at 08:51 PM (#4016520)
In the interest of fairness, the five NL Playoff teams based on the system;

PHI 92
MIL 92
SF 88
STL 90
ATL 87
   10. SoSH U at work Posted: December 14, 2011 at 08:56 PM (#4016526)
In the interest of fairness, the five NL Playoff teams based on the system;


That's not likely, and certainly not guaranteed yet, is it?
   11. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: December 14, 2011 at 08:57 PM (#4016527)
I thought it was.

Anyone?
   12. SG Posted: December 14, 2011 at 09:01 PM (#4016531)
Indians do surprisingly well. I haven't been paying attention, are they in a "going for it" mode? Is their pitching up to snuff?


That was the biggest surprise for me. I think it's a case of adding a full season of Ubaldo, and getting better pitching from Derek Lowe than they got from Mitch Talbot and Zach McAllister. A full year out of Choo and better production from 2B should help too.

Apparently the Twins are projected to have every meaningful player miss 80+ games again.


Well, no. It's more that a primary lineup that currently looks like this:

1 CF Denard Span
2 SS Jamey Carroll
3 C Joe Mauer
4 1B Justin Morneau
5 DH Ryan Doumit
6 3B Danny Valencia
7 RF Joe Benson
8 2B Alexi Casilla
9 LF Ben Revere

Doesn't project well in CAIRO, and they don't have the pitching to compensate.

Anyway, as it says in the title. Extremely early and completely useless.
   13. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 14, 2011 at 09:03 PM (#4016533)
I'd take the under on the Mariners and the over on the Marlins
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 14, 2011 at 09:04 PM (#4016534)
I thought it was.

Anyone?


2013 definitely, I think they're trying for '12 but not certain.
   15. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: December 14, 2011 at 09:05 PM (#4016536)
I thought it was.

Anyone?

Pretty sure it's 2013.
   16. Swedish Chef Posted: December 14, 2011 at 09:09 PM (#4016543)
I thought it was.

Anyone?


Last I heard: May happen in 2012, definitely in 2013.
   17. SoSH U at work Posted: December 14, 2011 at 09:11 PM (#4016546)
2013 definitely, I think they're trying for '12 but not certain.


That's my impression. Of course, it seems each day some weird new (should-be) major development in the CBA leaks out that seemingly flies under the radar, so who the hell knows.

For instance, has there been a thread on this, which suggests more replay and a longer all-star break are in the new deal. Both of which would continue the perfect game against my interests that the league has been pitching this offseason.
   18. phredbird Posted: December 14, 2011 at 10:35 PM (#4016628)
SF 88
STL 90


wait, what?
   19. HOLLA(R) Posted: December 14, 2011 at 10:56 PM (#4016640)
Apparently the Twins are projected to have every meaningful player miss 80+ games again.


Given their histories, odds are good that they both will.
   20. KJOK Posted: December 15, 2011 at 12:10 AM (#4016699)
The Indians projection was a bit high I thought but a full season of Ubaldo back to more normal levels explains a lot.

Other one looking high was Mil. with no first baseman.
   21. cardsfanboy Posted: December 15, 2011 at 02:22 AM (#4016790)
wait, what?


Division winners listed first followed by two wild card winners.
   22. cmd600 Posted: December 15, 2011 at 02:27 AM (#4016793)
I'd like to see how healthy they project the Indians to be. That team has quite a bit of talent they can put on the field, but they've been having serious issues getting it all onto the field at the same time.
   23. willcarrolldoesnotsuk Posted: December 15, 2011 at 02:41 AM (#4016802)
I'll take under on the Mets.
Me too. How many wins are they projected for?
   24. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: December 15, 2011 at 02:42 AM (#4016803)
I'll take the over on the Rays and the under on the Padres. When the Rookie of the Year is either your 3rd or 4th best pitcher (depending on where you slot Moore), I think 85 wins is low. And what have the Padres done to show a 10 game improvement over 2011?
   25. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 15, 2011 at 05:12 AM (#4016861)
Adding Pujols and Wilson and subtracting Mathis only gets the Angels four wins? How did that happen?
   26. Bitter Mouse Posted: December 15, 2011 at 12:36 PM (#4016919)
Mauer and Morneau could play 30 or 300 games between them, it is a complete cipher. Oddly the media here does nothing but express concern for Justin and bash Joe. For a hometown hero (TM) Joe M gets a whole lot of grief.

That said they "play the right way" (whatever that means), so I'll take the under.
   27. fra paolo Posted: December 15, 2011 at 01:50 PM (#4016936)
Adding Pujols and ... subtracting Mathis only gets the Angels four wins?

He needs a season or so to learn the new position. All those passed balls and poor pitch-framing has got to hurt.
   28. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 15, 2011 at 01:56 PM (#4016941)
And what have the Padres done to show a 10 game improvement over 2011?
It's not projecting a 10-game improvement. The Padres' Pyth expected record last year was 79-83. So it's projecting a two-game improvement.
   29. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: December 15, 2011 at 03:07 PM (#4016969)
I'll take the over on the Rays. 85 seems very low.


It does. A full season of Moore and Jennings, Upton and Longoria hitting their primes. They still have holes at 1b and DH, but those should be the easiest positions to fill, considering they really don't much there.
   30. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 15, 2011 at 03:26 PM (#4016988)
87 wins for the Crew seems about right

92 too high

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