SG should cut back on those jokes, since there's probably a huge number of people who don't actually know he's kidding.

Nats 86-76, a game ahead of Atlanta, with a 45.8% chance of making the playoffs (if there are two wild cards)? I like it.

SG should cut back on those jokes, since there's probably a huge number of people who don't actually know he's kidding.

Besides, the RLYW was created to say that the Yankees were worse than they really are.

Those look pretty good to me (which means I agree). The idea that the Yanks are #1 and then 2 (or 3) spots are up for grabs with Tampa, Boston, LA and Texas all effectively even sounds right. The Tigers keep showing up worse than I think they are but I'm probably higher on the rest of Detroit's rotation than I should be.

certainly a big drop for Cincy compared to the Marcel

Besides, the RLYW was created to say that the Yankees were worse than they really are.

Many of the regular posters ensure that this is never forgotten.

certainly a big drop for Cincy compared to the Marcel

It's only a two win drop for Cincinnati. CAIRO just likes St. Louis and Milwaukee more than Marcel which hurts Cincinnati's overall postseason odds a fair amount.

Nationals 2nd best pitching staff in the NL?
Diamondbacks fewer runs scored than the Giants? (but equivalent pitching).

But overall looks better than Marcel.

The Mets are going to be a mere six games under .500 in a division with four teams over it?

The lost two fine players having HOF seasons. They picked up... Jon Rauch. I'm not seeing it.

Nats 86-76, a game ahead of Atlanta, with a 45.8% chance of making the playoffs (if there are two wild cards)? I like it.

My "gut" also has the Nationals doing well this year (barring a slew of injuries). Will be interesting to see how the fans react. As a new retiree in the area, I'm hoping there will still be plenty of day-of-game bargains.

This newer projection has the A's with a losing record.
Seriously, how likely is that?

The lost two fine players having HOF seasons. They picked up... Jon Rauch. I'm not seeing it.

The assumptions here include a full season out of Ike Davis which they didn't get last year, and a reasonably healthy and effective Santana for 150 innings. AFAIK there's no reason Davis can't put in a full season in 2012. Obviously, we have no idea how much they'll get out of Santana right now, so adjust accordingly.

@11: sure, and you can toss in another win or two from Wright as being likely, but 150 effective innings from Santana seems like the top end of his projection rather than the mean.

I'd like to think mostly Duda in LF > mostly Bay in LF, too, but Gee isn't likely to be as good, and I'll bet many dollars to donuts their projections have the young guys who imo have very little upside, to improve simply because of age. A typical projection system expects Thole to add power. That won't happen. CAIRO must be fipping the pitchers, too. The Mets'll do well if they can to trade Niese to a team that believes in xFIP.

You have to do a whole lot of massaging to get this Mets team to 75 wins.

edit: this is a team whose weak pitching was protected by a big park, and whose offense was decent because it was OBP heavy. Moving the fences in after the horse had left that particular barn was just one more prank played on fans by ownership. The Wilpons' autobiography will be titled, We Were Just Kidding! What? You Didn't Know?