Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

RLYW: Salvaging a Sunken cost

Burnett projects to have an RA of 5.03 in CAIRO.  The following possible starting pitchers project better than that.

CC Sabathia (3.57)
Michael Pineda (4.37)
Freddy Garcia (4.55)
Brad Meyers (4.56)
Hiroki Kuroda (4.57)
Phil Hughes (4.63)
Ivan Nova (4.93)
...

If that’s true, then every start that goes to Burnett is a start that should be going to one of the above.

...

Unfortunately, since Burnett is owed $33 million over the next two years, the Yankees probably feel obligated to try and get some value out of him.

I don’t think they can do that by pitching him…. trading Burnett’s bad contract to another team for their bad contract might be a way to recoup some of that value.

fra paolo Posted: January 17, 2012 at 12:21 PM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, cubs, mets, projections, white sox, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: January 17, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4038756)
I don't see why the Yankees need to rush Burnett off. If I were them I would make Burnett my long man/emergency starter and just wait for an injury. A sixth starter should be expected to get some work.

On top of that I would put Hughes in the bullpen. He was very good out there in 2009 and he has looked considerably better in that role than as a starter. Grooming him as Mariano's replacement wouldn't be the worst move in the world given that they seem to have some depth in the rotation with CC, Pineda and Nova plus some of the minors. That would leave;

Sabathia-Nova-Pineda-Kuroda-Garcia in the rotation with Hughes and Burnett joining an already very good bullpen and Burnett ready to take the ball if someone goes down looks both very good and like a decent use of resources. I don't see any benefit from either paying Burnett to play for another team or trading him for Vernon Wells/Alfonso Soriano.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 17, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4038770)
I don't see why the Yankees need to rush Burnett off.

They also have at least four very good to decent SP prospects in AAA, beyond those seven pitchers that project better. He is just completely redundant to the Yankees.

I wouldn't trade Burnett for Wells or Soriano, but if you could flip him for Carlos Lee or Jason Bay it makes a ton of sense. Or just get $10M in salary relief over the next 2 years.
   3. Mark S. is bored Posted: January 17, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4038785)
I wouldn't trade Burnett for Wells or Soriano, but if you could flip him for Carlos Lee or Jason Bay it makes a ton of sense. Or just get $10M in salary relief over the next 2 years.


Trading him for Jason Bay makes some sense for both teams and will save the Mets $2M over the next two years(Burnett makes 500K per year more, but Bay has a $3M option for 2014 assuming he doesn't vest).
   4. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: January 17, 2012 at 02:50 PM (#4038796)
Maybe I'm missing something about Bay, but what role would he fill for the Yanks? They have Andruw Jones to be the righty bat for the DH platoon and the 4th outfielder.
   5. Dale Sams Posted: January 17, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4038799)
I don't see why the Yankees need to rush Burnett off. If I were them I would make Burnett my long man/emergency starter


Definitly. His OPS against in innings 1-3 was .706. and a 3.99 ERA. I'd take him on the Sox if the Yanks paid 1/2 his salary. He still has 'stuff', whereas Lackey pretty much never did last year.
   6. Mark S. is bored Posted: January 17, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4038803)
Maybe I'm missing something about Bay, but what role would he fill for the Yanks? They have Andruw Jones to be the righty bat for the DH platoon and the 4th outfielder.


The role he'd fill would be "not on the Mets".
   7. Danny Posted: January 17, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4038804)
That seems like an awful projection for Kuroda, especially relative to Garcia and Hughes.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: January 17, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4038833)
Did the Yanks sign Myers too?

EDIT: nevermind, Brad Myers not Brett Myers

   9. Nasty Nate Posted: January 17, 2012 at 03:29 PM (#4038839)
On top of that I would put Hughes in the bullpen. He was very good out there in 2009 and he has looked considerably better in that role than as a starter. Grooming him as Mariano's replacement wouldn't be the worst move in the world...


I would give Hughes at least another year as a starter before making him a reliever. They can groom Robertson as Mariano's replacement...
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 17, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4038861)
I would give Hughes at least another year as a starter before making him a reliever. They can groom Robertson as Mariano's replacement...

Concur.

Maybe I'm missing something about Bay, but what role would he fill for the Yanks? They have Andruw Jones to be the righty bat for the DH platoon and the 4th outfielder.

A DH that might rebound. If you want to get Jones some time in the OF, it will be vs. LHP.

When Bay was good, he could hit both RH and LH. If he bounces back, he plays almost every day.

Basically they'd just be trading a problem they have no spot for for a problem they have room for.
   11. Srul Itza Posted: January 17, 2012 at 03:58 PM (#4038864)
I don't see any benefit from either paying Burnett to play for another team


The benefit would to the Yankees would be all the games that other team would lose. By all means, let the Red Sox have him.
   12. Mark S. is bored Posted: January 17, 2012 at 04:00 PM (#4038865)

When Bay was good, he could hit both RH and LH. If he bounces back, he plays almost every day.


If he bounces back and plays everyday, then there is a good chance his $17M 2014 contract vests (instead of the $3M buyout).
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 17, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4038871)
If he bounces back and plays everyday, then there is a good chance his $17M 2014 contract vests (instead of the $3M buyout).

That would require 600 PAs in 2013 or 500 in both 2012 and 2013.

Pretty sure the Yankees could avoid that quite easily. They've got a built in excuse that ARod needs 40+ G's at DH, and 4 OF better defensively than Bay.

   14. SG Posted: January 17, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4038918)
A sixth starter should be expected to get some work.


The problem is that Burnett is more of an eighth starter. I'm also interested to see what Meyers and Cesar Cabral might do in MLB, but keeping them on the 25 man roster all year will be harder if Burnett's around.

Maybe I'm missing something about Bay, but what role would he fill for the Yanks? They have Andruw Jones to be the righty bat for the DH platoon and the 4th outfielder.


Like snapper says, they can use Bay as the primary DH and use Jones in the OF vs. LHP. Added offensive depth too. The Yankees could probably get by without a dedicated DH if they stay healthy all year, but the odds of that happening are infinitesimal and they really don't have anyone in the minors who could step in if they need a bat.

That seems like an awful projection for Kuroda, especially relative to Garcia and Hughes.


For whatever reason, Kuroda gives up a lot more unearned runs than the average pitcher (about 14% compared to 8%). Over the last four years Garcia's at 5% and Hughes is at 2%.

Kuroda's projected ERA based on his peripherals is 4.01, but the RA is based on a weighted average of his R/ER ratio over the last four years. It may just be a quirk and not very predictive, but that's why the RA seems high.
   15. Cowboy Popup Posted: January 17, 2012 at 06:02 PM (#4038931)
I'd take him on the Sox if the Yanks paid 1/2 his salary. He still has 'stuff', whereas Lackey pretty much never did last year.

For now. His fastball velocity has dropped a mile and a half per hour since he came to the Yanks (94.2 to 92.7). His curve doesn't fool many people these days, in part because he can't locate it, but I don't think its as good as it used to be. He did record a lot of swinging strikes last year though, so that's something.

If the Sox were willing to take him for half of his salary, the Yanks should make that move. Burnett can be a reverse Mike Myers, who was in turn a reverse Ramiro Mendoza.
   16. JPWF1313 Posted: January 17, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4038933)
That seems like an awful projection for Kuroda, especially relative to Garcia and Hughes.


Dodger Stadium to [new] Yankee Stadium

2011 ERA+
Kuroda 121
Hughes 77
Garcia 122

2010 ERA+
Kuroda 114
Hughes 103
Garcia 92

even so I think you are right
plus Meyer's projection seems irrationally exuberant and Nova's is really pessimistic
ZiPS projections for these guys are a bit different
   17. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 17, 2012 at 07:20 PM (#4038969)
Burnett had his moments but somehow "bad AJ" showed up all too often even when he looked good at the start of the game. Somewhere there's probably a pitching coach that thinks he can fix Burnett, so there probably will be a deal available at some point if the Yanks want to pay enough to move him.
   18. asinwreck Posted: January 17, 2012 at 08:17 PM (#4038992)
AJ Burnett ($33 million owed) for Alex Rios ($39.5 million owed) and $6.5 million. Would either Cashman or Williams say no?
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 17, 2012 at 08:42 PM (#4038999)
AJ Burnett ($33 million owed) for Alex Rios ($39.5 million owed) and $6.5 million. Would either Cashman or Williams say no?

Cashman.

Rios is even more redundant to the Yankees than Burnett. If he has any value left it's his ability to play CF. The Yanks already have two guys who can do that.

A SP is more tradeable than a CF, more teams need them.

I think the Yankees take Dunn + cash before Rios. At least Dunn has the upside of a plus bat.
   20. Something Other Posted: January 18, 2012 at 03:17 AM (#4039140)
Trading him for Jason Bay makes some sense for both teams and will save the Mets $2M over the next two years(Burnett makes 500K per year more, but Bay has a $3M option for 2014 assuming he doesn't vest).


I'd be leery of dumping Burnett for little, especially as little as Jason Bay. Burnett is terrible at his salary, but that's a pointless way to think of him, as we know. Better to think of him as an excellent fifth starter, and the Yankees would hardly be the first team in the world whose seventh starter (I'm just not going to count Brad Meyers as anything like a good bet to be a solid starter this season, especially not for 190 innings) had to pitch 170 innings due to injuries and ineffectiveness ahead of him in the rotation. If you can throw in most or all of his salary and get a real prospect for him, that makes sense. But the Yankees shouldn't be trading players who have some value for guys like Bay, who are both hugely unlikely to do anything for them, and whose likely production they can get anywhere for 1-2m, at most, without giving up anything at all of value.

Garcia was terrific last year. This year? He's 39. I'm not at all certain he'll repeat.
Hughes? He was bad last year, and has yet to post a good full season in the majors.
Meyers? Has yet to appear in the majors.

Burnett might be as low as eighth in your depth chart, but six and seven seven aren't beating him by much, and they both have issues. Teams miss the postseason pretty much every year for want of guys with ERAs around 5.00 in 190 innings. I'm not saying don't trade him. Just don't trade him for Jason F. Bay.

   21. willcarrolldoesnotsuk Posted: January 18, 2012 at 08:04 AM (#4039180)
Garcia was terrific last year. This year? He's 39. I'm not at all certain he'll repeat.


Garcia turned 35 in October. Not disagreeing with the point that he won't do what he did last year, but at least get his age right.
   22. Something Other Posted: January 18, 2012 at 03:32 PM (#4039605)
Urk. I got my aging retread pitchers backwards. Its Colon who'll be 39 next season. Yeah--I still wouldn't give up Burnett for a bag of balls, but that does dilute my point somewhat.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Ray (RDP)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogThe Jeff Jacobs HOF Ballot: Keep The Voting Serious And Fair
(11 - 12:22am, Dec 21)
Last: Ray (RDP)

NewsblogThe 2015 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!
(149 - 12:22am, Dec 21)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogRuben Amaro Jr. says it would be best if Phillies move on from Ryan Howard
(35 - 12:16am, Dec 21)
Last: John Northey

NewsblogDodgers biggest spenders in payroll
(5 - 12:06am, Dec 21)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogOT: NFL/NHL thread
(9185 - 12:02am, Dec 21)
Last: AuntBea

NewsblogOT: Politics - December 2014: Baseball & Politics Collide in New Thriller
(5136 - 11:45pm, Dec 20)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogAP sources: Umpires, MLB reach 5-year agreement
(1 - 11:26pm, Dec 20)
Last: scareduck

Hall of Merit2015 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(105 - 11:14pm, Dec 20)
Last: Dr. Chaleeko

NewsblogTrading Justin Upton means the Braves are in full rebuilding mode | Mark Bradley blog
(94 - 10:35pm, Dec 20)
Last: greenback calls it soccer

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - December 2014
(759 - 10:09pm, Dec 20)
Last: stanmvp48

NewsblogThe Yankees’ plan in case A-Rod can’t play at all
(11 - 9:31pm, Dec 20)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogOT - College Football Bowl Spectacular (December 2014 - January 2015)
(106 - 9:30pm, Dec 20)
Last: Infinite Joost (Voxter)

NewsblogAmazin' Avenue - Cohen: Mets and Rockies discussing Troy Tulowitzki deal with Noah Syndergaard as the centerpiece
(52 - 8:33pm, Dec 20)
Last: billyshears

Hall of MeritHerman Long
(10 - 7:54pm, Dec 20)
Last: The District Attorney

NewsblogThe right — and wrong — way for Mets to get Tulowitzki | New York Post
(11 - 6:55pm, Dec 20)
Last: Lassus

Page rendered in 0.2719 seconds
48 querie(s) executed