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Monday, January 30, 2012

RLYW: Too-Early Marcel 2012 Season Forecast

Crikey, such excitement in the NL West!

This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them.

fra paolo Posted: January 30, 2012 at 11:16 AM | 48 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, arizona, astros, athletics, blue jays, braves, brewers, cardinals, cubs, dodgers, giants, indians, mariners, mets, miami, nationals, orioles, padres, phillies, pirates, projections, rangers, rays, red sox, reds, rockies, royals, tigers, twins, white sox, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:10 PM (#4049418)
Looks about right for the Dodgers.

Of course, the upcoming season in Chavez Ravine is less about the W-L record and more getting Frank OUT OUT OUT.
   2. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4049419)
Lord, I want to live in that similation season where the Mets win the NL East.
   3. bookbook Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:13 PM (#4049421)
I feel that the projections are low on Texas and Seattle, high on Oakland, and slightly low on LAA as well.

Texas is a very good looking team going into 2012.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:15 PM (#4049430)
Looks way low on Detroit and/or way high on the Indians (and White Sox). Oakland at over 500? Gotta keep that monkey away from the pharmaceuticals.
   5. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:15 PM (#4049431)
Lord, I want to live in that similation season where the Mets win the NL East.
You don't really. America is still devestated by the mid-air collision of the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins' team planes.
   6. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:20 PM (#4049437)
I feel that the projections are low on Texas and Seattle

Woah, got to stop you right there. What are you smoking, and where can I get some?

Also, I would like to bet everything on the White Sox under.
   7. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:21 PM (#4049440)
He has the Rockies with the best chance of winning the NL West? Who's running this sim, Dave Cameron?

I fully expect the Rox to lose at least 90 games next year. It's going to be a long summer in Denver.
   8. Tricky Dick Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:23 PM (#4049444)
Maybe I haven't paid close enough attention to the A's remaining roster, but 82 wins seems surprisingly high, given the trades they have made.
   9. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:28 PM (#4049452)
Only three teams in baseball are at 90 wins, and two of them play in the same division. Methinks Marcel crushes a bit at the top.
   10. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4049460)
1. This is Marcel, monkey level projections. Judge accordingly. (So, yes, they crush at the top and bottom, don't park adjust, etc... - best used as a check on other efforts than as a stand-alone.)
2. The Rox look about as good as anyone else in the West to me as well. FWIW, Clay Davenport also has them tied with Arizona for the division (w/ 85 wins).
   11. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:34 PM (#4049462)
Wait, Houston is switching leagues this year, right? That alone seems like it would change the predictions significantly.
   12. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4049464)
Next year.
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:37 PM (#4049467)
Wait, Houston is switching leagues this year, right? That alone seems like it would change the predictions significantly.

Next year.
   14. John Northey Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:40 PM (#4049475)
Y'know, the AL East is getting pretty dull. Yankees-Boston-Tampa-Jays-Orioles. I do get a kick out of the Orioles have a 0.0% shot at the division title before the season starts though and a 0.3% shot at either of the wild cards.

As a Jay fan it is so frustrating though to see 81-81 as that is the world they have lived in since the strike with the odd flop to last and the odd climb to 86-88 wins. Sigh. At least the Orioles, Pirates, and Royals always provide a 'thank goodness I don't live there' feeling.
   15. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:40 PM (#4049476)
D'oh! Never mind.
   16. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:43 PM (#4049483)
Only three teams in baseball are at 90 wins, and two of them play in the same division. Methinks Marcel crushes a bit at the top.

And the bottom. It's a feature not a bug though. E.g. most teams that win mid-high 90's in a given year are good teams that also over-performed/were lucky. But eliminating the variance that does occur on single seasons does make it appear as if the air had been let out somewhat.

I would think it would be more informative, if rather than the average win total for each team, it listed the distinct percentages for each win total, or possibly several grouped together. (e.g. Team X, 96+: 20%; 91-95 23% 86-90 etc...)
   17. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:47 PM (#4049489)
Lord, I want to live in that similation season where the Mets win the NL East.

You don't really. America is still devestated by the mid-air collision of the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins' team planes.


One hates to think of what happens in that alternate universe in which the Astros win the first wild card slot.




   18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:48 PM (#4049493)
One hates to think of what happens in that alternative universe in which the Astros win the first wild card slot.

Some sort of plague that kills 97% of males age 18-50?
   19. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4049496)
Oakland at over 500? Gotta keep that monkey away from the pharmaceuticals.


I don't think Oakland will be at .500, but I don't think they're going to be nearly as awful as people think they'll be.
   20. chemdoc Posted: January 30, 2012 at 03:03 PM (#4049520)
Lord, I want to live in that similation season where the Mets win the NL East.


You don't really. America is still devestated by the mid-air collision of the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins' team planes.


The tragedy was compounded by the falling wreckage crushing the Nationals' bus.
   21. chemdoc Posted: January 30, 2012 at 03:05 PM (#4049527)
Oops. Double post.
   22. TerpNats Posted: January 30, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4049692)
Nearly a 30% chance of the Nats reaching the postseason (assuming two wild-cards)? One would guess that had such simulations been available in the past, the last time a Washington team would have had that high a percentage for the upcoming season would have been sometime in the mid-1920s.
   23. TDF, situational idiot Posted: January 30, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4049732)
Well- look which team was in the playoffs most often! If you ask me, that Marcel is one smart (and handsome!) simian.
   24. Danny Posted: January 30, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4049744)
Maybe I haven't paid close enough attention to the A's remaining roster, but 82 wins seems surprisingly high, given the trades they have made.

That's because Marcel regresses all players toward league average, so guys who have very little playing time in the majors (or none at all) will project to be league average. I'd guess whatever depth chart SG is using gives the A's a lot of playing time from rookies and near-rookies.
   25. vortex of dissipation Posted: January 30, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4049748)
Twenty-four posts and no-one has yet pointed out that the team with the best chance of making the playoffs this season is the Cincinnati Reds?
   26. SG Posted: January 30, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4049752)
I would think it would be more informative, if rather than the average win total for each team, it listed the distinct percentages for each win total, or possibly several grouped together. (e.g. Team X, 96+: 20%; 91-95 23% 86-90 etc...)


Win ranges within one standard deviation by team.

ARI: 78-91
ATL: 83-95
BAL: 64-76
BOS: 84-96
CHA: 73-85
CHN: 64-77
CIN: 83-95
CLE: 76-89
COL: 79-91
DET: 78-91
FLA: 73-86
HOU: 60-72
KC: 72-85
LAA: 81-94
LAN: 70-82
MIL: 75-88
MIN: 62-75
NYA: 86-98
NYN: 68-80
OAK: 75-88
PHI: 84-96
PIT: 66-79
SD: 68-81
SEA: 70-82
SF: 78-91
STL: 78-91
TAM: 82-95
TEX: 81-93
TOR: 75-87
WAS: 76-89

That's because Marcel regresses all players toward league average, so guys who have very little playing time in the majors (or none at all) will project to be league average. I'd guess whatever depth chart SG is using gives the A's a lot of playing time from rookies and near-rookies.


Right, although FWIW when I run the simulations with CAIRO which has a bigger spread in talent I get the A's at about 79 wins. I don't think they're going to be as bad as a lot of people think.
   27. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: January 30, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4049755)
Twenty-four posts and no-one has yet pointed out that the team with the best chance of making the playoffs this season is the Cincinnati Reds?

#23 did. Also, if he likes Marcel so much, why doesn't he marry him!

Edit: And thanks to SG in #26.
   28. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 30, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4049764)
First place in the AL East is the....Blew Blork Blankees? You stupid monkey!
   29. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: January 30, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4049770)
NYN: 68-80
What was the number on how dreadful the Mets were going to be that Kay was betting on?
   30. SG Posted: January 30, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4049782)
What was the number on how dreadful the Mets were going to be that Kay was betting on?


I think they settled on 69 wins. The Mets won 68 or fewer games 17.3% of the time.
   31. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: January 30, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4049783)
Kay's comment was 55 wins, but I don't recall where they drew the line for the bet. I definitely think it was below 68 though.
   32. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: January 30, 2012 at 05:41 PM (#4049787)
Right, although FWIW when I run the simulations with CAIRO which has a bigger spread in talent I get the A's at about 79 wins. I don't think they're going to be as bad as a lot of people think.

I want desperately to agree with this. However, I will be utterly shocked and amazed (and pleased) if the A's come in over .500 this year.
   33. Sam M. Posted: January 30, 2012 at 05:45 PM (#4049791)
Lord, I want to live in that similation season where the Mets win the NL East.


Well, if it helps, this is what the world looks like. Still want to live there?
   34. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 30, 2012 at 05:50 PM (#4049801)
2.6%? I like those odds!
   35. Walt Davis Posted: January 30, 2012 at 08:18 PM (#4049935)
I would think it would be more informative, if rather than the average win total for each team, it listed the distinct percentages for each win total, or possibly several grouped together. (e.g. Team X, 96+: 20%; 91-95 23% 86-90 etc...)

As SG's list shows, one SD is +/- 6.5 wins give or take for every team. The binomial distribution is your friend people! :-)

Which is why pre-season projections should never be taken too seriously. Even if we knew the "true talent" level of every team, we can't reliably predict their actual seasonal performance. Add in the uncertainty around our estimates of true talent level (which includes a ton of uncertainty around playing time) plus deadline trades, etc. and it's clear these sorts of things are pretty much just for fun. All they really tell us is who's the best team on paper, assuming we've written the right numbers down on the paper.
   36. Something Other Posted: January 30, 2012 at 09:14 PM (#4049966)
Glad it got mentioned that the forecast also lifts all boats, since the Mets winning 74 games with that jpitching staff seems... unlikely.

Santana
Dickey
Pelfrey
Niese
Gee

The last three pitched like durable #5 starters in 2011, and Santana didn't pitch a major league inning last season. Dickey's wonderful to have both for his arm and his intelligence, but he's the only Met starter who's a fair bet to throw 150 average or better innings next season. Scary, too, is the complete lack of depth.

Add in the Mets' modest offense and that's a team that's no lock to win as many as 70 games.
   37. puck Posted: January 30, 2012 at 09:23 PM (#4049974)
He has the Rockies with the best chance of winning the NL West? Who's running this sim, Dave Cameron?


Yeah, I'm surprised the changes they made since the first set of way-too-early projections have resulted in such a big change. I suppose one part of it is that last year the Rockies' actual record lagged behind the record based on component stats by quite a bit.

   38. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: January 30, 2012 at 09:26 PM (#4049979)
This is as good a place as any to ask: Is there a webite that keeps track of the forecasts every year from RLYW and other providers? I'd like to see the track records of these different forecasters.
   39. villageidiom Posted: January 30, 2012 at 09:53 PM (#4049996)
This is as good a place as any to ask: Is there a webite that keeps track of the forecasts every year from RLYW and other providers? I'd like to see the track records of these different forecasters.
vegaswatch.net used to track them, but I don't think they did it the last year or two.
   40. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: January 30, 2012 at 10:13 PM (#4050017)
Cool, VI. Bert Blyleven does or did predictions. Who knew?
   41. A triple short of the cycle Posted: January 30, 2012 at 11:10 PM (#4050059)
No way the A's are within 5 games of the Rangers and Angels. I wish!
   42. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 30, 2012 at 11:10 PM (#4050060)

Yeah, I'm surprised the changes they made since the first set of way-too-early projections have resulted in such a big change.


Is there any position at which the Rockies look to be improved over last year? I suppose Casey Blake is an improvement over Ty Wigginton et al., in the same way that Brussels sprouts taste better than beets.
   43. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 30, 2012 at 11:17 PM (#4050065)
Marco Scutaro over Mark Ellis/Jonathan Herrera?
   44. JJ1986 Posted: January 30, 2012 at 11:21 PM (#4050068)
Is there any position at which the Rockies look to be improved over last year?


Not really, but I heard the Rockies won the division last year.
   45. SG Posted: January 30, 2012 at 11:33 PM (#4050075)
Yeah, I'm surprised the changes they made since the first set of way-too-early projections have resulted in such a big change.


These were done with a different projection system (Marcel) than the last set (CAIRO), so it's not just a reflection of changes made since the last run. With the same depth charts used for these, CAIRO puts St. Louis ahead of Cincinnati (89 - 87) and has the Diamondbacks and Giants tied at 85 wins, both ahead of Colorado at 81.
   46. shoewizard Posted: January 31, 2012 at 09:23 AM (#4050190)
I think there is a reasonable chance.....10-20% perhaps, that you will see three 90 loss teams in the NL Central, which means of course there are going to be at least 2 teams over 95 wins, and maybe even a 100 win team in the NL this year.
   47. Bitter Mouse Posted: January 31, 2012 at 10:10 AM (#4050212)
I'd like to think the Twins are too low, but with their health questions who the heck knows.
   48. Hysterical & Useless Posted: January 31, 2012 at 02:13 PM (#4050452)
I suppose Casey Blake is an improvement over Ty Wigginton et al., in the same way that Brussels sprouts taste better than beets.


In other words, Blake is a downgrade from Wiggy?

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