Maybe he is. I never bought into the idea that he'd hit for the kind of power than Lynn or Damon did. I always thought Kenny Lofton was the reasonable upside for Ellsbury, and Pierre's probably the downside. Ellsbury's a terrific defensive centerfielder, and he's getting on base at a slightly above average rate, plus he's a great baserunner. That's a player I'll take, even if I am hoping for more. For what it's worth, Lofton wasn't a full-time major leaguer until he was 25. Ellsbury is on track for a season that looks statistically very much like Lofton's rookie year.

There's no problem with being a bit better than Juan Pierre, as long as some idiot doesn't give you $10M per in your 30's. Pierre was a pretty good player in his 20's.

Better than Pierre now, or better than Pierre when Pierre was 25? When Pierre was 25, he hit .305 /.361 /.373, a 94 OPS +. And I'm not sure that league difference is relevant. I don't think the AL had such an advantage in 2003 when Pierre was 25.

Better than Pierre now, or better than Pierre when Pierre was 25?

Well, all the other player comparisons are at age 25. But for Pierre-Ellsbury he uses career rates.

Anyway, Pierre's 94 at 25 is reasonably similar to Ellsbury's 88. Add in a better SB% for Ellsbury, it's probably a near wash. In wOBA Ellsbury actually leads .340 to .335 for age 25.

Ellsbury is a slightly better than league average center fielder. There's nothing wrong with that.

Ellsbury is a slightly better than league average center fielder.

By which metric(s)?

Seems like a pointless column. Yeah, he's better than Pierre. And?

Ellsbury is on track for a season that looks statistically very much like Lofton's rookie year.

Lofton hit .285/.362/.365 when league average was .258/.327/.383
Ellsbury is hitting .298/.347/.388 when league average is .274/.347/.443

Ellsbury is a slightly better than league average center fielder. There's nothing wrong with that.

CFs, 2008-09, 400+ PAs:


24/32, how much does his dee move him up?

and I didn't realize that CF had become Scott Hairston's primary position, (.272/.330/.522 in 646 PAs, playing home games in Petco- since leaving Arizona)

The point of the article was against my article at The Hardball Times.

24/32, how much does his dee move him up?

This isn't the way these questions get answered, normally. Why rank individual players when we have aggregate statistics for center fielders?

This year, the average CF has a .267 EqA. Jacoby Ellsbury has a .268 EqA.
Last year, the average CF had a .268 EqA. Jacoby Ellsbury had a .263 EqA.

He's an above average defensive player and a well above average baserunner. "Slightly above average CF" looks exactly right.

But that average includes all the back-up and temporary players, right? It makes sense to compare Ellsbury to other starting CF's, because the average starting CF is going to be a much better player than the average player at CF.

But that average includes all the back-up and temporary players, right?

And all the players who get injured and all the player who lose their jobs and all players who share jobs and so on. It's the average of all the center fielders. If I call someone an "average center fielder", it's not a good response to say that he's below average among good center fielders. Of course he is - he's average!

Now, JP might mean that we should rethink how average is defined and thus downgrade Ellsbury in relation to average - I think that's wrong, but I'd be interested to see his argument - but whether or not Ellsbury is average, in this conversation, is purely definitional. I'm using the definition that has been standard in the stat community, and the definition that best fits the term.

EDIT: it is true that an average CF, under this definition, will typically not be one of the 16 best CFs in baseball. JPWF is correct to point that out. I don't think it makes Ellsbury below average, it's just a point about how average is typically defined.

I think Pierre Ellsbury was Court Physician to Charles II.

I always thought Kenny Lofton was the reasonable upside for Ellsbury,

I myself thought it was Brett Butler. And, in fact, I'll stick with that. I thought it unlikely that Ellsbury would develop power -- his swing always looks ugly to me -- but I thought that he might become fairly decent at drawing walks.

Butler, through his age-27 season, had this career line:
.264 AVG (98% of league average)
.343 OBP (3% above league average)
.345 SLG (86% of league average)
89 OPS+ (*)

Ellsbury, according to bb-ref at the moment (age 24), has the following career line:
.294 AVG (7% above league average)
.346 OBP (league average)
.406 SLG (87% of league average)
93 OPS+

(*) That's weird -- someone wanna check my numbers? -- the OPS+ shouldn't have a difference of 4 points from what I can tell. I think bb-ref may have a typo. When I figure Butler's OPS+ for those years, I get a 93.

Anyway...

Ellsbury's not drawing walks as well as Butler did, but the OBP and SLG are fairly similar to Butler to age 27. (Yeah yeah, I know, Ellsbury's younger, so has "more time to develop." This is true, Butler got a later start than Ellsbury). Butler began around age 28 to start hitting for more average and more power -- for the rest of his career, he hit for a .296 AVG, and that was in CLE and SF and LA, so he was perhaps a little better than the raw numbers would suggest -- and though he never consistently hit for much power, he got on base and ran well and was useful, ending up with a 115 OPS+ (on a .384 OPS and .383 SLG).

I'd be thrilled if Ellsbury were even that good. In the minors he drew more walks than he has so far in the majors (from eyeballing the numbers) -- perhaps that will change?

And all the players who get injured and all the player who lose their jobs and all players who share jobs and so on. It's the average of all the center fielders. If I call someone an "average center fielder", it's not a good response to say that he's below average among good center fielders. Of course he is - he's average!

Now, JP might mean that we should rethink how average is defined and thus downgrade Ellsbury in relation to average - I think that's wrong, but I'd be interested to see his argument - but whether or not Ellsbury is average, in this conversation, is purely definitional. I'm using the definition that has been standard in the stat community, and the definition that best fits the term.

This is the problem of the definition of "average". When you say "average player" batted X in 2008, it normally means weighted average of all players who played in 2008. But, when you say someone is "average CF" it is usually understood "someone who is 13-17 between all starting CF's" or "someone who is 13-17 between 30 best CF's in baseball". That's the same as with rotation spots. When you say "he is no.3 pitcher", you don't mean "he will give you production that average pitcher in 3rd slot gave in 2008", you mean "60th to 90th best pitcher in baseball in ideal starting rotations at the beginning of the season".

The point of the article was against my article at The Hardball Times.

Nah, it means both of you are paying attention to my brilliant posts!

But haven't you noticed I've moved on from Ellsbury as the new Pierre to Pedroia as the new Luis Castillo? Still I'd recommend saving those articles until the beginning of next season at the earliest. :-)

As to "average", I have no problem with the league average definition and prefer it for position players. Ellsbury is average or better because he's durable enough to play (nearly) an entire season compared to many "starting" CF who are actually platoon guys or otherwise going to give you 500 PAs with 200 PAs going to ... Joey Gathright? But with starting pitchers, I do make the distinction between "ideal rotation" and "average pseudo-#3 rotation slot" production because we haven't a clue as to which pitchers can stay healthy.

Why rank individual players when we have aggregate statistics for center fielders?

Now, JP might mean that we should rethink how average is defined and thus downgrade Ellsbury in relation to average - I think that's wrong, but I'd be interested to see his argument -

What is the average CF?
Is average the aggregate?
Or is aggregate the median CF?

I wasn't actually making an argument per se, but rather throwing something out there.

Out of the 32 CFs with the most PAs (2008-09), Ellsbury is 24th by OPS+
He is a better baserunner and defensive player than most
There are 30 MLB teams, on the one hand he clearly is a legitimate MLB starter, on the otherhand he's clearly not a star.

I'd peg him about average if I had to choose.

Ranking players by OPS+ is normally a pretty good rule of thumb, but Ellsbury, who has a high ratio of OBP to SLG and a very good stolen base success rate in a lot of attempts is a significantly more valuable offensive player than OPS+ indicates. I think this is borne out by the EqA numbers that were posted a little later in the debate, as much as the issues surrounding the definition of average.

Another way to look at it, Boston CFs have an OPS of .742 against an AL average of .735. Boston CFs are 7th out of 14 by OPS- considering Ellsbury's dee and baserunning (Boston CFs are 33/7 in steals- or 19 net steals [33-2*7]- best in the AL), I think it can be fairly said that Boston is getting somewhat above average performance at CF.

Ellsbury is at -2.2 runs/150 in CF for his career according UZR. Most of the bad is his arm, but it's got his range at slightly above average for center. This year Fangraphs has him as the 16th most valuable CFer among qualifiers, 26th amongst all players.

Seems like a pointless column.

Welcome to Rob Neyer's career, circa 2009.

Ellsbury is at -2.2 runs/150 in CF for his career according UZR. Most of the bad is his arm, but it's got his range at slightly above average for center. This year Fangraphs has him as the 16th most valuable CFer among qualifiers, 26th amongst all players.

I'm sure we're not supposed to trust our eyes, but...there's no ####### way.

Ellsbury is at -2.2 runs/150 in CF for his career according UZR. Most of the bad is his arm, but it's got his range at slightly above average for center. This year Fangraphs has him as the 16th most valuable CFer among qualifiers, 26th amongst all players.

He's played beside Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay. Those guys must have poached a lot of his outs.

Neyer is so crazy. Ellsbury is the new Sizemore.

and I didn't realize that CF had become Scott Hairston's primary position, (.272/.330/.522 in 646 PAs, playing home games in Petco- since leaving Arizona)

You should see the crazy shitty numbers that Leo Rosales is posting as the designated pinata in AZ's bullpen...

Here's the pisser, of course: when the Dbacks traded Hairston so they could keep Eric Byrnes, I b!tched and moaned on this board, and people called me stupid (and even nicer things) because I was too dumb to realize that Hairston would be a bust who'd never pan out anyhow. Then many people said the same things to me when I complained about AZ keeping Byrnes over Quentin. It's a shame that Josh Byrnes seems to subscribe to the "Prospects I inherited from Rizzo are overrated" doctrine...

Welcome to Rob Neyer's career, circa 2009.

Does insider work for ESPN? What drives it? I read that they are putting the Magazine behind the Insider wall. Must be working for them.

To me, part of Ellsbury's value is that he does what he does while:
1) being young enough to get a little better;
2) doing it for $500,000 a year.

On a per-dollar basis, he's almost certainly one of the three or four best values among starting CF'ers. As a few others have written in this thread, the problem with comparing him to Pierre is that we think of Pierre as the $10m/yr guy, who is waaaay overpaid. At $500K annually, and likely to get better for two or three more years, I'd take him over many others above him on the above list, in a second.

Patronage.

Rob Neyer isn't part of insider anymore.

What's currently part of EPSN's baseball insider is:

Scouting report on current major leaguers called "Inside Edge", parts of Buster Onley's blog which culls info from other baseball writers, Keith Law's and Churchill's scouting reports on amateurs for the draft, and some other video. Also a rumor section that mlbtraderumors blows out of the water.