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Tuesday, July 08, 2014

Robothal - Ian Desmond: Should He Stay or Should He Go

The Nats are actively seeking to add a young shortstop, one who could inherit the position if Ian Desmond departs as a free agent after 2015, major league sources say.

Desmond, 28, rejected the Nationals’ offer of a lengthy extension last offseason, settling instead for a two-year, $17.5 million contract that will expire after next season.

boteman Posted: July 08, 2014 at 12:31 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nationals, trade value

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   1. boteman Posted: July 08, 2014 at 06:16 PM (#4746555)
I understand the Cubs have a surfeit of shortstop prospects in their farm system.
   2. Rough Carrigan Posted: July 08, 2014 at 07:40 PM (#4746607)
If he goes there will be trou-blllllllllle
   3. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 08, 2014 at 07:52 PM (#4746614)
The Nationals can afford to pay fair market value for Ian Desmond, which might be a better move than trying to find a comparable replacement.
   4. Buzzkill Posted: July 08, 2014 at 08:21 PM (#4746639)
Are we talking about the same Ian Desmond who is posting a .291 OBP and a whopping 95 OPS+? That guy? Career of .315 and OPS+ of 102? The guy who has almost earned one dWAR in 6 seasons? I just want to be clear to see if we can somehow find a comparable replacemernt.
   5. boteman Posted: July 08, 2014 at 08:30 PM (#4746642)
Desmond strikes me as a guy who is just shy of breaking out to be Very Good rather than just Good. He's shown flashes of plate discipline, but too often he's just like last night when he flailed away at successively higher fastballs, then K'd on a slider down and in when he could have won the game with a solid single to the outfield. He has definitely improved in the field at the key shortstop position over these past couple years, to be sure.

I like a 2 year deal for him with the Nats; they don't get locked in and he has an incentive to make that marginal improvement if he really wants to stay in D.C. when his contract is up. He's the last active guy in the Nats system who came up with the Expos, for what that's worth. If Danny Espinosa could hit a lick he'd be an even better shortstop, but that's its own sad story.
   6. Urkel's Boner Posted: July 09, 2014 at 12:40 AM (#4746746)
If he goes there will be trou-blllllllllle


Sure, but isn't the alternative twice as bad?
   7. Non-Youkilidian Geometry Posted: July 09, 2014 at 12:11 PM (#4746938)
If he goes there will be trou-blllllllllle


Sure, but isn't the alternative twice as bad?

I blame the Nationals. They've really got to let Desmond know.
   8. A triple short of the cycle Posted: July 09, 2014 at 12:30 PM (#4746957)
Don't get tied down with a long-term contract, Stay Free.
   9. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: July 09, 2014 at 12:33 PM (#4746961)
He's shown flashes of plate discipline, but too often he's just like last night when he flailed away at successively higher fastballs, then K'd on a slider down and in when he could have won the game with a solid single to the outfield.

Once day is fine and next is black?
   10. SoCalDemon Posted: July 09, 2014 at 12:47 PM (#4746978)
Are we talking about the same Ian Desmond who is posting a .291 OBP and a whopping 95 OPS+? That guy? Career of .315 and OPS+ of 102? The guy who has almost earned one dWAR in 6 seasons? I just want to be clear to see if we can somehow find a comparable replacemernt.


I think they are talking about the guy with a 114 OPS+ and 3.3 WAA since the beginning of 2012 (including being league average this year, despite the .291 OBP). Guys like this do not grow on trees. Now, if I were the Nationals, I would probably let him walk after 2015 (and why is this an important decision to talk about now, 1.5 years early? If the Nats were in the basement, I get it, but I don't think they are going to trade him in the middle of a pennant race), but it seems like an entirely fair question. In fact, he seems like exactly the sort of player where this is a difficult decision. If he was Tulo, obviously you do everything you can to keep him, and if he was a 1 WAR player, obviously you let him go, but that slightly above average range is where I think these decisions are most difficult, because it can be much harder to replace such a player than I think many people think, yet at the same time it doesn't take much slippage to make a contract a very bad decision.

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