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Sunday, December 16, 2012

Robothal: Blue Jays, Mets have agreement in principle on Dickey trade

Your AL East preseason favorites, the Toronto Blue Jays.

Sources: #Mets, #BlueJays have agreement in principle on Dickey trade. Window open for Jays to extend Dickey, which would complete deal.

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 16, 2012 at 02:59 PM | 171 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: blue jays, mets, r.a. dickey, trades, transactions

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   101. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:25 AM (#4326433)
Oddly enough, Dickey had a WP only about one per 60 innings perhaps meaning his "WP" are getting coded PBs. (His WP rates in the past were always high.)

...

the Mets led the league in PB (thanks to Dickey games) but had the 4th fewest WP. The Giants were tied for the fewest PB (5) but were 6th in WP. Combining the two, the Mets had 72 to the Giants 59. That difference is Dickey.


Do Dickey/Thole have a pronounced home/road WP/PB split by any chance? This all makes me wonder if maybe the whole thing is on the Mets' official scorer.
   102. tshipman Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:44 AM (#4326449)
Combining the two, the Mets had 72 to the Giants 59. That difference is Dickey.


There's zero evidence for this. Lincecum lead the league in WP's, btw. So you could say that the difference between the Giants and the Phillies (the team with the least) is Lincecum.

And for what it's worth, the Mets led the league in PB (thanks to Dickey games) but had the 4th fewest WP.


Mets would have been among the league leaders for PB without Dickey. Saying that there were a lot of PB's without a lot of WP's is MORE evidence for poor catching, not less.

***

I can't find splits on PB's by park, btw.
   103.   Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:57 AM (#4326456)
Mets had 19 passed balls away and 13 at home. Had 24 wild pitches away and 16 at home.
   104. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 02:04 AM (#4326458)
Oddly enough, Dickey had a WP only about one per 60 innings perhaps meaning his "WP" are getting coded PBs.


Saying that there were a lot of PB's without a lot of WP's is MORE evidence for poor catching, not less.


Sorry, have you folks ever seen a knuckleballer? They throw the ball really slow, straight down the middle. More PBs and less WPs makes all the sense in the world.
   105. Sunday silence Posted: December 17, 2012 at 02:58 AM (#4326466)
(Many PBs come on pitches where the C was crossed up anyway, not necessarily the C's fault.)


your pt. is lost here. Whatever the data show, it is clear that some catchers are better than others at limiting PB. Even if it's not Thole's fault, another catcher, better at stopping PB would have made the catch. You can blame the pitcher, but it doesnt make Thole any better and it doesnt mean his inability to stop PB should not count.

It's not Al Oliver's fault that Pete Rose hits a drive into left center. But if Tolan is better able to get to the ball, does that not make Tolan better?
   106. formerly dp Posted: December 17, 2012 at 07:48 AM (#4326482)
Sickels has his top 20 for the Mets posted, and it provisionally includes D'Arnaud (#1, A-)and Syndergaard (#3, A-). Flores comes in at #4 with a B+. The Mets and Jays have similar systems from a quick glance-- pitching depth but little by way of hitting help on the way.
   107. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 17, 2012 at 08:53 AM (#4326495)
11 prospects B- or better is very encouraging.
   108. Rants Mulliniks Posted: December 17, 2012 at 08:56 AM (#4326496)
I was expecting to see D'Arnaud go when the Dickey rumours started, but I'm surprised Syndergaard is going too. I still like the trade, but the Jays gotta win now!
   109. formerly dp Posted: December 17, 2012 at 09:08 AM (#4326503)
I still like the trade, but the Jays gotta win now!
The rotation right now is Dickey, Buehrle, Johnson, Morrow, and Romero. If those guys stay healthy, I don't see how that's not the best 1-5 in the division. Their offensive core of Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes and Cabrera looks pretty good, and they still have some potential from improvement in the lineup with Rasmus and Lawrie. On paper, this has to be the best team the Jays have had going into a season in a decade plus.
   110. zack Posted: December 17, 2012 at 11:52 AM (#4326625)
God dammit. I move to New York for a few months and the Mets become completely unwatchable.

Not that I'm against the trade if it is as reported. That is the haul you'd need to move Dickey. I have a awful feeling that it won't end up as reported, though.
   111. JJ1986 Posted: December 17, 2012 at 12:28 PM (#4326672)
Apparently, an extension has been negotiated. No word yet on any terms.
   112. formerly dp Posted: December 17, 2012 at 12:38 PM (#4326687)
If I were an unnamed, non-elite prospect right now, I'd be packing my bags with hurt feelings...


   113. JJ1986 Posted: December 17, 2012 at 12:39 PM (#4326692)
Jon Heyman was very taken with the idea that the Blue Jays prospect should be Danny Barnes, but I believe that was all because he was born in New York.
   114. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 17, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4326699)
Robothal reports Dickey's new contract is 2/25, pending a physical. So just about exactly what he asked from the Mets.
   115. Rants Mulliniks Posted: December 17, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4326703)
Dickey in agreement with #BlueJays on two-year, $25 million extension that he had requested from #Mets, pending physical.


From Robothal's twitter feed. So much for the "no hometown discount". Woohoo!
   116. JJ1986 Posted: December 17, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4326704)
The amount seems right, but I thought he'd tear up his contract and get 10/10/10 or something more even.
   117. formerly dp Posted: December 17, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4326710)
With those numbers on the extension, this is a really good deal for both sides, IMO. I would have preferred Gose to Syndergaard, but that's probably a bit short-sighted and unrealistic, and the Jays are thin in the same areas the Mets are on the prospect side.
   118. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4326711)
What a bargain. I think Dickey will be terrific for the Jays.
   119. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4326715)
I'm curious about the swap of "non-elite" prospects. What's the point? I guess when we learn the names we'll have an idea.
   120. Conor Posted: December 17, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4326721)
With those numbers on the extension, this is a really good deal for both sides, IMO. I would have preferred Gose to Syndergaard, but that's probably a bit short-sighted and unrealistic, and the Jays are thin in the same areas the Mets are on the prospect side.


I was thinking about this as well, since the Mets desperately need OF and Syndergaard is only in A-Ball, but he does look like a pretty good prospect, so maybve you are right about it being short sighted
   121. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4326727)
The amount seems right, but I thought he'd tear up his contract and get 10/10/10 or something more even.

Why bother? In today's interest rate environment, the PV difference over 2 years is negligible.
   122. JE (Jason) Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4326734)
From Robothal's twitter feed. So much for the "no hometown discount". Woohoo!

How Beltran-esque (i.e., selfish) of him!
   123. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4326735)
Gose would certainly be our opening day starter in CF, but so would Rajai Davis, or, well, Andres Torres. It's a commentary on the Mets' dismal roster, not Gose's quality. Of course Gose might develop into a BJ Upton type, or something. I find it tough to weigh Gose vs Syndergaard, but am happy that we got either one of them.
   124. RJ in TO Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:08 PM (#4326741)
Gose would certainly be our opening day starter in CF, but so would Rajai Davis, or, well, Andres Torres.

You're welcome to Rajai Davis whenever you want him.
   125. formerly dp Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4326745)
Of course Gose might develop into a BJ Upton type, or something. I find it tough to weigh Gose vs Syndergaard, but am happy that we got either one of them.
Me too. I think if they were dealing with another organization, they would have tried to get two good hitting prospects coming back, but 1) the Jays just dealt two young hitters in the Reyes deal, and 2) Gose looks like he's going to be an asset to the 2013 Jays.

Snagging Davis would have been pretty sweet, though you're dead on in that it's more a reflection of their lack of OF depth.

You're welcome to Rajai Davis whenever you want him.
He and Gose on the same roster seems a little redundant, unless Gose is ticketed for AAA to get some experience hitting in a normal environment.
   126. Rants Mulliniks Posted: December 17, 2012 at 01:43 PM (#4326803)
I can't see Gose making the ML club out of spring training, unless he's a different animal at the plate. I wouldn't be surprised if he's called up at some point during the early part of the season, and then Davis is traded.
   127. Ravecc Posted: December 17, 2012 at 02:04 PM (#4326841)
Right, that's done.

Now for some outfielders and that bullpen....
   128. RJ in TO Posted: December 17, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4326856)
He and Gose on the same roster seems a little redundant, unless Gose is ticketed for AAA to get some experience hitting in a normal environment.

This is the case. He'll be stashed in AAA, until the Jays get sick of Davis, or unless Rasmus doesn't hit again.
   129. Matthew E Posted: December 17, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4326865)
I can't see Gose making the ML club out of spring training, unless he's a different animal at the plate. I wouldn't be surprised if he's called up at some point during the early part of the season, and then Davis is traded.
I don't think they'll call up Gose to be a fourth guy. They might call him up if they figure Rasmus is a broken reed.

The intro to this article calls the Jays the "preseason favourites". I am constitutionally incapable of that kind of optimism about the Jays now, so don't go by me, but Rob Neyer wrote a thing today comparing the Jays and Royals; he figures the Jays are likely to be a close third in the wild card race.
   130. depletion Posted: December 17, 2012 at 02:22 PM (#4326872)
I think the trade is a fair return for the Mets. But the negatives are: a) they are going to be a bad team this year and b) I don't see them being any good any time soon. I do not believe the notion that because they have salary "coming off the books in 2014" means that they will necessarily add good players. They have 1 very good position player, 1 average, maybe above average, position player (Davis), and the rest is filler. If Wilmer Flores and D'Arnaud pan out they will have 4 above average players at best. At least R.A. was fun to watch.
Good luck R.A.
   131. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4326874)
They have 1 very good position player, 1 average, maybe above average, position player (Davis), and the rest is filler.


Average players, such as Ruben Tejada and Daniel Murphy, are certainly not filler. The Mets would kill to add some "filler" of similar quality in the outfield and bullpen.
   132. depletion Posted: December 17, 2012 at 02:33 PM (#4326886)
PFish, I like those guys. Murphy was headed to a great year in 2011 when he got hurt. But he's a poor fielder with a fine OBP and little power. In fact, I think they should have considered moving him for an OF and putting Ronny Cedeno at 2B. I have hope that Tejada will continue to progress, but we had Reyes out there not too long ago. 2B isn't a zero power position any more, a lot of guys hit 20 HR there now.

Regards,
Tim
   133. Rants Mulliniks Posted: December 17, 2012 at 02:34 PM (#4326890)
The Jays injury curse last year makes me apprehensive about this year too, but the team could just as easily win 100 games as 75.
   134. Conor Posted: December 17, 2012 at 02:37 PM (#4326894)
Average players, such as Ruben Tejada and Daniel Murphy, are certainly not filler. The Mets would kill to add some "filler" of similar quality in the outfield and bullpen.


Yeah. I mentioned this in another thread; but all the Mets OF last year combined for about 4 WAR. Tejada had 2.1 WAR in 115 games, so over 155 games or so he was on pace for about 3 WAR, which was nearly as many as the entire Mets OF. So they would indeed kill for some OF like that. =
   135. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 02:37 PM (#4326896)
The Jays do now officially have my two favorite baseball players. If the Mets start off as #### and the Jays do well I might enjoy switching allegiances for a year.
   136. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 02:45 PM (#4326908)
Tim, the reason I pounced on that is that watching the Mets have made me acutely aware of the value of average players. Look at the list of guys we've had in right field after the days of Bonilla and Strawberry. Actually, I'll name them for you: Orsulak, Everett, Ochoa, Huskey, Cedeno, Operation Shutdown, Timo, Burnitz, Hidalgo, Diaz, Nady, Green, Church, Frenchy, Duda. Except for 4 months of Beltran in 2011, "average" is the very best that the Mets have done in right field in the whole of the last two decades. Average players are not easily acquired or developed, and they aren't cheap. That's twenty offseasons where we told ourselves, "if we just slot in an average right fielder we'll win another X games!" Hasn't happened yet, and it's not going to happen next year either.
   137. depletion Posted: December 17, 2012 at 03:33 PM (#4326962)
No Lastings Milledge (another #1 prospect) or Moises Alou (I guess he was LF)? Shutdown was playing pretty well when he got hurt and Timo stepped in and got to the World Series. I suppose I'l take Huskey over any of those, Green wasn't half bad, too. I thought we had Mark Cameron in RF and Beltran in CF for a while. Maybe they can trot Wilmer Flores out there soon.
   138. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4327008)
I think you get the point though, right?
   139. neonwattagelimit Posted: December 17, 2012 at 04:07 PM (#4327010)
Also, Church and Nady were generally average-ish. Hidalgo and Burnitz were mostly bad, but had their moments.

The larger point remains, though: the Minaya-era Mets failed mostly because of their chronic inability to surround a championship-caliber core with even adequate role players.

   140. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4327042)
That wasn't really my point. Just that slagging off average players as "filler" was dumb.
   141. Walt Davis Posted: December 17, 2012 at 06:35 PM (#4327195)
There's zero evidence for this. Lincecum lead the league in WP's, btw. So you could say that the difference between the Giants and the Phillies (the team with the least) is Lincecum.

There's MASSIVE evidence for this. I forget my final count but there were, what, 18-20 PBs in Dickey's starts in 2012. Again, the league average was 1 PB per 117 IP. Thole's non-Dickey average was about the same. Meanwhile, in Dickey starts, there was a passed ball once every 13 IP. That is a passed ball rate 9 times higher than the average rate. You get 16 more passed balls than expected in Dickey starts. That is a passed ball rate this is twice as high as the league average WP rate. As you note, Lincecum led the league in WP at 17 ... Dickey had 18+ passed balls. If there was no Dickey effect, that would be like somebody these days having more triples than the number of league-leading HRs.

It's Dickey, not the Cs.

Seriously, you guys don't know that knuckleballers throw a lot of passed balls?

Boston in Wakefield's 30+ start seasons

1996: 23 PB, led the league by 6
1997: 36 PB, led the league by 17
1998: 35, led by 7
2003: 20, led by 7
2004: 21, led by 4
2005: only 13! did not lead league
2007: 10, middle of the league
2008: 18, led by 2

Rangers 82-90 (Hough)

1982: 19, led by 3
1983: 14, 3t
1984: 33, led by 16
1985: 23, led by 1
1986: 25, led by 5
1987: 73!, led by 43
1988: 36, led by 18
1989: 42, led by 25
1990: 35, led by 8

Braves 74-80 (Niekro's big IP years)

1974: 31, led by 11
1975: 35, led by 4
1976: 38, led by 6
1977: 34, led by 10
1978: 32, led by 10
1979: 25, led by 4
1980: 14, 2nd! (Houston, 24 ... with Joe Niekro)

White Sox 71-75 (Wood)

1971: 32, led by 7
1972: 23, led by 2
1973: 33, led by 6
1974: 19, 3rd
1975: 12, middle of pack

Mets 2010-12 (Dickey)

2010: 10, middle of pack
2011: 26, led by 9
2012: 32, led by 10

Neither their team totals nor their margin of "victory" are outliers. In the years I looked at, I think the only non-knuckleballer team with 30+ PB was the 75 Cards. Joe Niekro's teams had some bad years. Candiotti seems the knuckler who didn't throw a lot of PBs ... his teams didn't lead often in part because a lot of his career overlapped with Hough and some with the end of Niekro but I don't think his teams ever topped 30 either.

Of course I haven't gone through all the box scores to see how many of those PBs came in the knuckler starts. Feel free to do the legwork to show it wasn't the knucklers.


   142. formerly dp Posted: December 17, 2012 at 06:41 PM (#4327200)
There are 2 threads going on right now about this trade, so I'll repost this here:
No idea if it's actually true, but Mike Francesa just said that the final guy the Mets are giving up is Mike Nickeas. He at least fits the "non-elite" part of the description.
That would be **awesome**!

Edit: Confirmed. OF Wulimer Becerra to the Mets.
Becerra batted .250/.359/.375 with no homers in 39 plate appearances this summer in the Gulf Coast League. The 18-year-old outfielder is about as raw as it gets.
   143. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 17, 2012 at 08:36 PM (#4327267)
Nickeas was traded to the Mets for Victor Diaz. I really liked mini-Manny.
   144. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 17, 2012 at 08:52 PM (#4327280)
Why do you suppose the Jays wanted Nickeas?
   145. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 17, 2012 at 08:55 PM (#4327282)
They probably just wanted someone to be able to catch Dickey if Thole got hurt.
   146. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 17, 2012 at 09:17 PM (#4327295)
And they think Nickeas knows somebody who can do that?
   147. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 17, 2012 at 09:18 PM (#4327299)
Sickels has his top 20 for the Mets posted, and it provisionally includes D'Arnaud (#1, A-)and Syndergaard (#3, A-). Flores comes in at #4 with a B+. The Mets and Jays have similar systems from a quick glance-- pitching depth but little by way of hitting help on the way.
I hate this trade with the heat of a thousand suns, but if you're going to trade Dickey, this is the kind of package to get for him.

I'm curious about the swap of "non-elite" prospects. What's the point? I guess when we learn the names we'll have an idea.
Position of need for different position of need, probably. That's a typical rationale.

I was thinking about this as well, since the Mets desperately need OF and Syndergaard is only in A-Ball, but he does look like a pretty good prospect, so maybve you are right about it being short sighted


Often a tricky call. It's like the draft, where some teams aim for positions of need, and others live and die by picking the best player available, figuring that a position of need looks very different in three to five years, and that if the best player available pans out he can then be traded for a player at the position of need.

I like Gose. He's awfully young for having appeared in the majors, which is good and bad. His upside is higher but his service clock has already started. He's going to be getting expensive around the time the Mets have a better chance at getting good, while if Snydergaard pans out the Mets will have him under control during 2017-2022, which is a lot more likely to be their window.
   148. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 17, 2012 at 09:47 PM (#4327316)
The 2003 Mets won 66 games. The 2006 Mets won 97. It's unduly pessimistic to be looking ahead 2017.
   149. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 17, 2012 at 10:01 PM (#4327320)
Tim, the reason I pounced on that is that watching the Mets have made me acutely aware of the value of average players.


Minaya's inability to spot average players was just one of his many creative ways of undermining the contributions of the team's stars. Another was his inability to find players who could contribute a little something. I think it was in his last season, streaked with wonderful acquisitions like the Sarge Lite deal, when the Mets gave something like 2000 PAs to guys who were at or below replacement level.

Alderson's first year was cheering in that regard, in that Sandy had the knack for the opposite, for finding backups and role players that instead of sucking the life out of the team, might at least chip in 1 win/500 PAs. That doesn't matter much on a 75 win team, but it's still better than watching Mike Jacobs man first base.

PFish, I like those guys. Murphy was headed to a great year in 2011 when he got hurt. But he's a poor fielder with a fine OBP and little power. In fact, I think they should have considered moving him for an OF and putting Ronny Cedeno at 2B. I have hope that Tejada will continue to progress, but we had Reyes out there not too long ago. 2B isn't a zero power position any more, a lot of guys hit 20 HR there now.

Regards,
Tim


I believe the numbers strongly suggest that Murphy is a very good first basemen, and a poor second basemen, meaning that he's potentially a fine player whose value is limited by the way the Mets have chosen to use him.

As a fielder, at 1B, Murphy was +23/1200 innings, then +20/1200 innings in 2011 and 2012. At 2B he was -14/1200 and -12/1200. If you simply halve those numbers, he'd still be a good win and three-quaters better at 1B than at 2B over a full season. He looks like a solid 2 win player on offense, if he can stay in the lineup, and maybe he kicks it up a notch on a team that stops dicking with him defensively. So, yeah, Murphy doesn't look like a 1Bman on a championship team, but he strikes me as the kind of guy championship teams have in 2012--3 win players who are underpaid because they don't stand out at anything, and leave room on the payroll for stars.
   150. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 17, 2012 at 10:16 PM (#4327328)
The 2003 Mets won 66 games. The 2006 Mets won 97. It's unduly pessimistic to be looking ahead 2017.
Good one.

Between 2003 and 2006 the Mets added as regulars Jose Reyes and David Wright. In 2005 they also brought in a CFer whose name escapes me at the moment, but he wasn't too bad; and that borderline HOFer at 1B they added prior to the 2006 season... That and the budget to pick up real players at the margins had something to do with that club's success.

If you want to be persuasive about reasons to be optimistic about the current team, you'll have to project minor leaguers and tell us why you think they're likely to be contributors to the next good Mets team, and how the team is going to substantially improve without adding even remotely expensive free agents for the forseeable future. The Mets apparently can't even afford guys on 1/10 contracts. Where are the wins coming from? Does the 2011 draft look like a record breaking class to you?

   151. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 17, 2012 at 10:22 PM (#4327332)

If you want to be persuasive about reasons to be optimistic about the current team


Nobody's optimistic about the current team. But your time horizon is silly. You're omarsblackcloud, right? The guy who hates everything?
   152. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 17, 2012 at 10:56 PM (#4327359)
Nobody's optimistic about the current team. But your time horizon is silly. You're omarsblackcloud, right? The guy who hates everything?
Sorry to disappoint, but, no.

And that's funny, coming from a guy who doesn't bother to post any remotely detailed thinking on the Mets (or any aspect of the game--if I'm wrong, please feel free to favor us with a copy and paste of one example of real thought you've given to the game prior to this. One). And by that I mean, literally, ever. You have nothing to say but, by god, you're going to say it, over and over and over again.

You have nothing to say at all about the team, you never post anything of substance (morbid curiousity reveals you haven't written a post longer than one line in this entire thread), but choose instead to follow the path of the gutless heckler with nothing to offer but unpleasantness from the cheap seats.

Your entire contribution to date in the prospect thread was the single word "baseless", where you evinced more of these stalkery qualities where you follow around posters who aren't particularly positive about the team's prospects and, instead of offering a valid and constructive opinion telling us why you're optimistic, merely catcall.

Talk about a negative, depressing presence.



   153. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 17, 2012 at 11:14 PM (#4327375)
Whatever you say, omarsblackcloud.
   154. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 17, 2012 at 11:38 PM (#4327389)
Whatever you say, omarsblackcloud.


Sorry to disappoint, stalker. I can't help you.

The projection is almost funny, though, coming from a guy who doesn't bother to post any remotely detailed thinking on the Mets (or any aspect of the game--if I'm wrong, please feel free to favor us with a copy and paste of one example of real thought you've given to the game prior to this. One). And by that I mean, literally, ever. You have nothing to say but, by god, you're going to say it, over and over and over again.

   155. formerly dp Posted: December 17, 2012 at 11:42 PM (#4327392)
Sorry to disappoint, but, no.
Come on. I don't know why you decided to switch from OBC to Something Other to Jack Carter, but it's blindingly obvious you're the same poster. Throwing a hissy fit every time you get called out on it doesn't help your case any. And this is coming from someone who is generally favorably inclined toward both the style and content of your posts.

I agree with the general point about the payroll-- it's really difficult to project what's going to happen going with the team, because I don't think anyone has a clue about what the budget situation's going to be. But that cuts both ways-- you can't state with absolute certainty that the Mets are going to suck in 2017, because you're as in the dark about the budget as the rest of us. This was a good package coming back for Dickey-- I think if you read the threads leading up to the Myers deal, you'll see that no one thought the Mets could get anywhere near an A-rated prospect for Dickey, let alone 2. Syndergaard's been compared to Wheeler, and Wheeler straight up for Beltran was considered a good deal (Beltran was a rental, and a midseason deal, so not apples-to-apples). Getting him back along with a nearly-ready, good-hit, good-field catcher is a win for the organization long-term. And Becerra's not a bad lottery ticket, even if the odds are bad.

There's currently a lot of pitching talent in the system. If d'Arnaud and Flores develop, along with Tejada, Davis, and Wright, that is a solid and fairly cheap core.
   156. formerly dp Posted: December 17, 2012 at 11:51 PM (#4327394)
Just quickly from one of the Myers threads:
Lol. Dickey will not net you Myers, much less Myers+. Most GMs do not value Dickey as a true "front line" ace type starter, despite his 2012 season which was, admittedly, top notch. Knuckleballers are just too volatile to predict year to year, and he has no established track record (and given his age, I suspect the Mets would be better off keeping RA at a decent price).


I'd rather see them move Dickey for Myers plus.

This is a joke, right? A 37 year old knuckleballer who's signed for one year for a 21 year old AAA prospect who's cost controlled for six seasons? And you want a bonus, besides?


Of course, d'Arnaud is not Myers. But this does show that ML GMs valued Dickey more than a lot of people on BTF thought they did, in part because the particulars of his situation provide a chance at getting ace-level performance at a sub-market rate.
   157. tshipman Posted: December 17, 2012 at 11:52 PM (#4327395)
Seriously, you guys don't know that knuckleballers throw a lot of passed balls?


And Wakefield and Charlie Hough's career WP rate were three to four times Dickey's rate this year. Thole had a really high rate of passed balls in non-Dickey starts. He lead the league in 2011 in PB's while only catching 133 innings of Dickey.

He's a baaaad catcher.

What explains Thole's performance in the non-Dickey innings?
   158. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:04 AM (#4327400)
And Wakefield and Charlie Hough's career WP rate were three to four times Dickey's rate this year.

You know, Thole may have something to do with that.
   159. Sweatpants Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:15 AM (#4327404)
And Wakefield and Charlie Hough's career WP rate were three to four times Dickey's rate this year.
I'm still not sure why you insist on using only Dickey's 2012 WP rate for this. He threw a lot of wild pitches in 2008, 2010, and 2011. He didn't change his pitching style. It doesn't necessarily follow that with the decrease in WP should come a decrease in PB by his catchers.
Thole had a really high rate of passed balls in non-Dickey starts.
And it skyrocketed when catching Dickey! The same thing happened to Mike Nickeas. I have no opinion on either man's catching ability, but it's pretty clear that catching the knuckleballer was trickier for them than catching anyone else on the Mets' staff.
   160. PreservedFish Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:17 AM (#4327405)
And Wakefield and Charlie Hough's career WP rate were three to four times Dickey's rate this year.


Dickey set a knuckleballer record for K/BB. He's good. He isn't wild.

And it skyrocketed when catching Dickey! The same thing happened to Mike Nickeas. I have no opinion on either man's catching ability, but it's pretty clear that catching the knuckleballer was trickier for them than catching anyone else on the Mets' staff.


I really don't understand what tshipman is after here. Is he still mad about the Buster Posey comparison?
   161. tshipman Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:36 AM (#4327414)
And it skyrocketed when catching Dickey! The same thing happened to Mike Nickeas. I have no opinion on either man's catching ability, but it's pretty clear that catching the knuckleballer was trickier for them than catching anyone else on the Mets' staff.


Yes, quite clearly catching the knuckleball was tricky for them. However, we have ample evidence that Thole is a bad catcher even when he's not catching Dickey. We would expect bad catchers to struggle at catching the knuckleball.

In addition, Dickey doesn't throw a typical knuckler. It doesn't float unpredictably, right? Like that was the whole key to his success? Being able to control it?

I really don't understand what tshipman is after here. Is he still mad about the Buster Posey comparison?


No. My point is that WAR for catchers measures them poorly. dWAR is especially bad. All the stuff about Dickey is mostly a sideshow, where someone hypothesized that Thole was getting some kind of kuckleballer credit for his catching.

It's sort of obvious that a guy who leads the league in most years in PB's is giving up more than one run a season on runners advancing--especially when he can't throw.
   162. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:39 AM (#4327415)
And this is coming from someone who is generally favorably inclined toward both the style and content of your posts.
Why thanks, dp. I admitted early on to the likelihood of a family resemblance when Ray started caviling at me for sounding like someone who took his lunch money, but beyond that I can't be helpful.

I agree with the general point about the payroll-- it's really difficult to project what's going to happen going with the team, because I don't think anyone has a clue about what the budget situation's going to be. But that cuts both ways-- you can't state with absolute certainty that the Mets are going to suck in 2017,


Where the fuck did I say anything about the Mets sucking in 2017?

I wrote

Often a tricky call. It's like the draft, where some teams aim for positions of need, and others live and die by picking the best player available, figuring that a position of need looks very different in three to five years, and that if the best player available pans out he can then be traded for a player at the position of need.

I like Gose. He's awfully young for having appeared in the majors, which is good and bad. His upside is higher but his service clock has already started. He's going to be getting expensive around the time the Mets have a better chance at getting good, while if Snydergaard pans out the Mets will have him under control during 2017-2022, which is a lot more likely to be their window.


I can't tell you how much I loathe this shit, where instead of actually bothering to discuss the issues at hand (and with the Mets, those issues aren't always particularly pleasant), someone just makes up whatever crap best serves the nonsensical insults they're chucking around.

   163. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:45 AM (#4327417)
What explains Thole's performance in the non-Dickey innings?
Post-traumatic stress disorder?
   164. formerly dp Posted: December 18, 2012 at 12:53 AM (#4327422)
Where the #### did I say anything about the Mets sucking in 2017?
My bad. I meant 2015. The point still stands though-- if they have money to spend two offseasons from now, there will be good complementary talent on the team to put them in a competitive position-- The Nats and Braves will be good for the foreseeable future, but the Marlins look like they're in for another bad spell, and the Phils look weak for the next couple of years.
someone just makes up whatever crap best serves the nonsensical insults they're chucking around.
Where was the nonsensical insult? (aside from pointing out the obvious truth about the handle-switching-- I don't really care about it one way or the other, but when someone notices, don't insult them for it)
   165.   Posted: December 18, 2012 at 01:42 AM (#4327442)
Why do you suppose the Jays wanted Nickeas?


AA is trying to set some sort of record for catchers churned through in a year. We used to make fun of his right-handed-reliever fetish, but it seems he's moved on. I expect to see Mike Nickeas traded for, I dunno, Jason Phillips.
   166. bobm Posted: December 18, 2012 at 01:53 AM (#4327446)
[136]

For single seasons, Playing for the NYM, From 1991 to 2012, Played 81 games at RF, (requiring WAR_bat>=-15), sorted by most recent date

                                                         
Rk            Player Year WAR/pos   G  PA  AB  OPS    Pos
1         Lucas Duda 2012    -1.4 121 459 401 .718 *97/3D
2     Carlos Beltran 2011     3.5  98 419 353 .904   *9/D
3     Jeff Francoeur 2010     0.9 124 447 401 .662     *9
4        Ryan Church 2008     1.4  90 359 319 .785     *9
5        Shawn Green 2007     0.1 130 491 446 .782    *93
6    Richard Hidalgo 2004     0.8  86 359 324 .759   *9/7
7       Roger Cedeno 2003    -0.9 148 527 484 .698    *98
8     Jeromy Burnitz 2002    -0.2 154 550 479 .677   *9/D
9         Derek Bell 2000     1.5 144 622 546 .773  *9/81
10      Roger Cedeno 1999     1.3 155 525 453 .804 *987/4
11      Butch Huskey 1998     0.3 113 402 369 .707   *9/D
12        Alex Ochoa 1997    -0.4 113 262 238 .649  *9/8D
13     Bobby Bonilla 1993     3.0 139 582 502 .874  *95/3
14     Bobby Bonilla 1992     1.2 128 506 438 .779   *9/3
15      Hubie Brooks 1991     0.0 103 407 357 .733     *9
   167. bobm Posted: December 18, 2012 at 02:12 AM (#4327454)
[149] Minaya's inability to spot average players was just one of his many creative ways of undermining the contributions of the team's stars. Another was his inability to find players who could contribute a little something. I think it was in his last season, streaked with wonderful acquisitions like the Sarge Lite deal, when the Mets gave something like 2000 PAs to guys who were at or below replacement level. 

Alderson's first year was cheering in that regard, in that Sandy had the knack for the opposite, for finding backups and role players that instead of sucking the life out of the team, might at least chip in 1 win/500 PAs. That doesn't matter much on a 75 win team, but it's still better than watching Mike Jacobs man first base. 


For single seasons, Playing for the NYM, From 2005 to 2012, Played 10 games at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF or DH, (requiring WAR_bat<=0), sorted by most recent date

                                                              
Rk               Player Year WAR/pos Age   G  PA  OPS      Pos
1      Kirk Nieuwenhuis 2012     0.0  24  91 314 .691     *879
2            Lucas Duda 2012    -1.4  26 121 459 .718   *97/3D
3            Josh Thole 2012    -0.1  25 104 354 .584       *2
4           Rob Johnson 2012    -0.2  29  17  58 .587     *2/1
5             Jason Bay 2012    -1.3  33  70 215 .536       *7
6          Mike Nickeas 2012    -0.7  29  47 122 .471     *2/D
7     Jordany Valdespin 2012    -0.3  24  94 206 .710  7489/6D

8         Ronny Paulino 2011    -0.3  30  78 248 .663       *2
9          Mike Nickeas 2011     0.0  28  21  59 .510       *2
10           Brad Emaus 2011    -0.7  25  14  42 .424       *4
11        Willie Harris 2011    -1.2  33 126 283 .668  74/859D
12        Justin Turner 2011    -0.1  26 117 487 .690    *45/6
13         Chin-lung Hu 2011    -0.4  27  22  23 .141      4/6

14        Gary Matthews 2010    -0.6  35  36  65 .507     8/97
15      Jesus Feliciano 2010    -0.3  31  54 119 .563      978
16           Lucas Duda 2010    -0.2  24  29  92 .678       *7
17         Chris Carter 2010    -0.2  27 100 180 .706     79/D
18        Joaquin Arias 2010    -0.1  25  22  33 .483    *4/67
19            Alex Cora 2010    -0.6  34  62 187 .543    *4/63
20          Rod Barajas 2010     0.0  34  74 267 .677       *2
21         Ruben Tejada 2010    -0.4  20  78 255 .588      *46
22       Fernando Tatis 2010     0.0  35  41  72 .592    3/54D
23         Henry Blanco 2010    -0.1  38  50 144 .571       *2

24    Fernando Martinez 2009    -0.2  20  29 100 .517     7/89
25       Ramon Martinez 2009    -0.6  36  12  44 .396     *6/4
Rk               Player Year WAR/pos Age   G  PA  OPS      Pos
26          Omir Santos 2009     0.0  28  96 306 .688       *2
27          Jeremy Reed 2009    -0.8  28 126 178 .605    78/93
28   Anderson Hernandez 2009    -0.2  26  46 149 .686     *6/4
29           Nick Evans 2009    -0.6  23  30  69 .660      7/3

30        Luis Castillo 2008    -0.5  32  87 359 .660       *4
31        Argenis Reyes 2008    -0.1  25  49 121 .504       *4
32        Damion Easley 2008    -0.6  38 113 347 .692 *4/673D5
33      Marlon Anderson 2008    -0.3  34  87 151 .530    7/34D
34        Raul Casanova 2008     0.0  35  20  61 .708       *2
35          Moises Alou 2008     0.0  41  15  54 .777     *7/D

36        Mike Difelice 2007     0.0  38  16  47 .661       *2
37          Jeff Conine 2007    -0.8  41  21  50 .550    *3/79
38       Carlos Delgado 2007     0.0  35 139 607 .781     *3/D
39         Paul Lo Duca 2007     0.0  35 119 488 .689     *2/D
40          Ricky Ledee 2007    -0.1  33  17  43 .698       *7
41          Ruben Gotay 2007     0.0  24  98 211 .772     4/65
42        Jose Valentin 2007    -0.1  37  51 183 .676     *4/D

43   Anderson Hernandez 2006    -0.5  23  25  67 .407      *46
44       Chris Woodward 2006    -1.1  30  83 253 .600  465/793
45        Mike Difelice 2006    -0.4  37  15  30 .353       *2
46    Lastings Milledge 2006    -0.7  21  56 185 .689       79
47         Kazuo Matsui 2006    -0.4  30  38 139 .505       *4
48          Shawn Green 2006    -0.1  33  34 126 .768     *9/3
49          Cliff Floyd 2006    -0.5  33  97 376 .731       *7
50         Julio Franco 2006    -0.1  47  95 179 .699     3/D5

Rk               Player Year WAR/pos Age   G  PA  OPS      Pos
51        Mike Difelice 2005    -0.2  36  11  19 .328       *2
52      Gerald Williams 2005    -0.3  38  39  32 .658     87/9
53         Miguel Cairo 2005    -0.6  31 100 367 .620  *4/3579
54         Kazuo Matsui 2005    -0.2  29  87 295 .652       *4
55          Mike Piazza 2005    -0.1  36 113 442 .778     *2/D
56        Jose Offerman 2005    -0.3  36  53  80 .636      3/4
   168. PreservedFish Posted: December 18, 2012 at 02:15 AM (#4327456)
He's going to be getting expensive around the time the Mets have a better chance at getting good, while if Snydergaard pans out the Mets will have him under control during 2017-2022, which is a lot more likely to be their window.


When I read this, I had the same response as Arbitol Dijaler. No team would ever target a season so far away in its planning. Although I suppose that is more likely to be the Mets' window, only because it is so far away as to be completely unknowable.
   169. Sweatpants Posted: December 18, 2012 at 02:16 AM (#4327457)
Yes, quite clearly catching the knuckleball was tricky for them. However, we have ample evidence that Thole is a bad catcher even when he's not catching Dickey. We would expect bad catchers to struggle at catching the knuckleball.
Good catchers, too. Walt Davis has listed dozens of staffs with knuckleballers in them, and most of them gave up a lot of passed balls. Were all of their catchers coincidentally bad?

The 2008 Mariners, who had neither Thole nor Mike Nickeas on them, allowed 14 passed balls, 8 coming in Dickey's 112.1 IP. That was Kenji Johjima, Jamie Burke (?), and Jeff Clement. I think Clement was a pretty bad catcher; I don't know anything about the either two. Maybe they were all bad, too.

Even if Thole and Nickeas and Johjima and Mirabelli and Pocoroba and Sundberg were all awful defensive catchers (Sundberg won six Gold Gloves), it's still fairly obvious that catching the knuckleball caused them to allow more PB than they would have otherwise. Maybe they were bad, but they weren't as bad as their PB totals indicate. There DOES need to be a PB adjustment for them.

In addition, Dickey doesn't throw a typical knuckler. It doesn't float unpredictably, right? Like that was the whole key to his success? Being able to control it?
His is a fast knuckleball - possibly the fastest knuckler ever. But it still darts unpredictably. If it didn't, it wouldn't be a knuckleball. That's what the pitch does. Dickey can hit the strike zone with it, but that's a much bigger target than the catcher's glove.

I really am surprised that this is even a discussion. Anyway, you say that there's "ample evidence that Thole's a bad catcher even when he's not catching Dickey." Awesome - since that's what you're worried about, you don't need to come up with more excuses about why Dickey is the exceptional knuckleballer who's actually easy to catch.
   170. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 18, 2012 at 09:02 AM (#4327509)

Sorry to disappoint, stalker. I can't help you.

The projection is almost funny, though, coming from a guy who doesn't bother to post any remotely detailed thinking on the Mets (or any aspect of the game--if I'm wrong, please feel free to favor us with a copy and paste of one example of real thought you've given to the game prior to this. One). And by that I mean, literally, ever. You have nothing to say but, by god, you're going to say it, over and over and over again.




You're him. You probably got kicked off the site for acting like this.
   171. zack Posted: December 18, 2012 at 10:09 AM (#4327525)
Who the #### is Rob Johnson? Is BB-Ref using mountweazels now?
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