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Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Rockies Have a Blueprint for Long-term Deal With Arenado

Will Blackmon’s downturn give the Rockies cold feet with Arenado?

Jim Furtado Posted: October 10, 2018 at 06:33 AM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nolan arenado, rockies

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   1. puck Posted: October 10, 2018 at 10:29 AM (#5763911)
Or Helton's, or Tulo's.

One would think he would want a lot of years. Next year is his age 28 season. 7-8 years or more?
   2. puck Posted: October 10, 2018 at 10:51 AM (#5763941)
Where does one get accurate service time info like what was quoted in the article?

I wondered if Gray's minor league stint would keep him under 3 years. I guess not.

The Rockies have already expanded payroll and got by their mistakes ($21 million in relievers not good enough to make the postseason roster, plus Desmond and Parra) because their rotation was nearly entirely pre-arb. (Bettis was the only arb-eligible starter this season.)

Gray and Anderson are arb-eligible this year, and I believe Freeland and Marquez will be in the 2019-20 offseason. So they're cheap for another couple years, but not for long in the context of an Arenado extension.

Parra, LeMahieu and CarGo's deals are up but that still leaves them needing replacements at 1st, 2nd, RF, and LF. Dahl will get penciled in somewhere but he's had 400 PA's or more only twice in six years.
   3. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: October 10, 2018 at 10:56 AM (#5763949)
Will Blackmon’s downturn give the Rockies cold feet with Arenado?

It's a little different with Arenado, since he's coming off what was more or less a typical year for him while Blackmon had clearly just finished his career year. He's also three years younger than Blackmon when he got his extension last winter

I knew Blackmon wasn't duplicating last season, but he was still pretty good in a lot of ways - decent OBP and baserunning, and solid power (even for Coors). He even led the league in runs again. 115 OPS+ with 12/16 on steals isn't bad at all from your CF playing every day. But man, does DRS hate his defense. -28 runs after rating between -2 and -7 in the last three years. That pulled his bWAR down to 0.8 (-1.2 WAA). He rated among the worst on the statcast leaderboard, too (which groups all OFs together). UZR is less harsh, so his fWAR was a much more respectable 2.8.

Meanwhile, DRS had previously rated Arenado's defense as otherworldly. +20 in 2016 and 2017; it was never lower than +16 and was somehow +30 in his rookie year. But last season, he was a much more mortal +5. UZR had never been as bullish about Arenado's defense. Last year's +6 was in line with his average. Unless there's some reason to think that his DRS portends a steep decline, I wouldn't have a problem if I were the Rockies in giving Arenado a big extension.
   4. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: October 10, 2018 at 11:54 AM (#5764000)
But man, does DRS hate his defense. -28 runs after rating between -2 and -7 in the last three years.


That is almost twice as bad as a bad Manny Ramirez or Gary Sheffield year. Adam Dunn was able to almost match it in 2007 with a -26 while playing in LF, and he blows Blackmon out of the water with a staggering -43 in 2009.
   5. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 10, 2018 at 12:08 PM (#5764007)
They're losing several contracts for next year - Parra, Carlos Gonzalez, LeMahieu, and they have cheap kids ready to fill in for all of them. But boy howdy, those reliever contracts really stink. Even their one success story, Wade Davis, is owed $50 million more after putting up a 4.13 ERA this year.
   6. PreservedFish Posted: October 10, 2018 at 12:11 PM (#5764010)
They're losing several contracts for next year - Parra, Carlos Gonzalez, LeMahieu, and they have cheap kids ready to fill in for all of them.


Yeah, I'm sure they won't clog those holes up with any mediocre veterans.
   7. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 10, 2018 at 12:47 PM (#5764036)
Yeah, I'm sure they won't clog those holes up with any mediocre veterans.


Jason Heyward is probably available for the right price.
   8. puck Posted: October 10, 2018 at 03:36 PM (#5764207)
and they have cheap kids ready to fill in for all of them.

Do you mean Tapia and Dahl? The projections for Tapia have been poor.

Avoiding the mediocre vets is the hard part. I think Parra, CarGo and LeMahieu made $26.5M together (not incl. Parra's buyout of the 2019 option). I think they will let LeMahieu go and give Hampson or Rodgers the shot to replace him. But I worry about them signing a 30+ FA outfielder.
   9. puck Posted: October 10, 2018 at 03:40 PM (#5764209)
Unless there's some reason to think that his DRS portends a steep decline, I wouldn't have a problem if I were the Rockies in giving Arenado a big extension.


I think the key question is "what is big." It seems the length is always uncomfortable for the team.

Arenado's been thought of as perhaps a bigger star than the 25.2 bWAR he's accumulated the last 4 seasons. He could be looking at an 8-year deal or longer.
   10. Nasty Nate Posted: October 10, 2018 at 03:42 PM (#5764215)
It seems the length is always uncomfortable for the team.
Well to be precise, it's the total guaranteed money.
   11. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 10, 2018 at 03:49 PM (#5764227)
Do you mean Tapia and Dahl? The projections for Tapia have been poor.


He can't help but be better than Parra. I'd like to see him in center, with Blackmon moved to a corner. I think Tapia's bat would play all right in center.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: October 10, 2018 at 04:35 PM (#5764263)
#2: b-r, cots (and I think) sportrac have service time updated annually. So they won't have it updated yet for 2019 but it's easy to figure for somebody like Arenado who was on the ML roster (or ML 60-day DL) the entire season -- just add 1. I don't know where they source their numbers but I assume that if you knew the right person to ask, you could get in-season updates, etc.

As to Gray, he started the year with 2 years and 62 days of service time. He would have had to spend about 72 days in the minors not to have qualified as a full 3 by year's end .... he was only down there for two starts (and 31 in the majors). So while I don't know his exact number of service days over 3 years, I know he is over 3 years.

Also I don't know if it applied to Gray but rehab starts in the minors still count as ML service time assuming you are on the ML DL.

If you're new to this, just to warn you, when you see Gray's service time reported as 2.062 that's 2 years and 62 days not 2.062 years.
   13. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 10, 2018 at 04:42 PM (#5764266)
But I worry about them signing a 30+ FA outfielder.


I see in the other thread that some Yankee fans want to get rid of Giancarlo Stanton. That would work.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: October 10, 2018 at 04:52 PM (#5764275)
On a potential deal ... yes, he'll want at least 8 years, more likely 9, maybe with an opt-out. Once upon a time, he'd have gotten it but times may finally be changing. His offense is very good but not outstanding. According to DRS, the defense took a big drop this year and, since I don't have magic secret numbers, that would very much concern me.

Once upon a time it seemed that 3B didn't age well (or at least had to be moved). It's not clear that was ever really true but even if it was, Boggs, Chipper, Beltre, ARod (maybe with help), Gaetti have shown it doesn't have to be that way. So I don't think there's any particular extra risk with signing Arenado through 35-36 than there would be for any other position player but it's obviously a substantial risk with any position player. And if his defense is actually already in decline, that does add to his risk or at least the risk he will need to be moved to 1B where his bat won't play as well (esp if the bat also declines).

If I'm Arenado, I wait to let Machado set the market. They've been in relative parallel their whole careers except Manny is two years younger with 80 days more service time. So Arenado won't match Manny's years but probably can match (give or take) his AAV. I'll WAG Arenado will get an offer from the Rox of 8/$200 (including 2019). Whether he accepts may depend on Manny.
   15. Zonk is One Individual Posted: October 10, 2018 at 06:05 PM (#5764349)
Jason Heyward is probably available for the right price.


The right price is just not calling collect from a cell phone on a cruise ship in Antarctica. Now, if you want Chatwood back too....

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