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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Friday, December 09, 2011
According to Troy Renck of the Denver Post, the Rockies have traded third baseman Ian Stewart and right-hander Casey Weathers to the Cubs for outfielder Tyler Colvin and infielder DJ LeMahieu.
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1. Mike Emeigh-- MWE
You know whats funny? I remember when LeMahieu was coming out of HS, he was talked about for his power potential. That was his best tool, from what I remember at least. And now it is his worst tool. I guess that is what happens when you don't get any bigger or stronger from 18 to 24.
First Iannetta, then Ian Stewart, and the Rockies seem dead-set on getting rid of Seth Smith, which the acquisition of Colvin is likely to accelerate. All my favorites from the team are leaving town; if they trade Tulo, I'll probably give up on them for good.
This has to be the most uttered phrase this off-season. WTF? Don't you people like baseball?
I guess Colvin is to replace Seth Smith, who they'll deal to Atlanta for Prado? Otherwise I don't see how this makes that much sense for Colorado. I don't get why they have given up on Stewart without a bridge between him and Arenado. And they traded Wiggy away - say what you will, but he was about replacement value. So who plays third now? Jonathan Herrera? Chris Nelson? Vinny Castilla?
I like the deal very much for the Cubs. Give up a 4th OF and AAAA second baseman for a guy who was around a 1.0 WAR third baseman until he cratered last year and a once well-thought of pitching prospect lottery ticket. I think a change of scenery will do Stewart well. And if not, well they'll just non-tender him.
ARam really steadied that third base position for the Cubs. Remember the revolving door they had before him? Ron Coomer, Gary Gaetti, Kevin Orie, Steve Buechele, Todd Zeile. Remember Gary Scott was going to nail that position down finally? Fun times!
Yes, I do. I left out a word in my post - should have said solid contact. I've seen very few guys take as many bad swings as Colvin.
-- MWE
I didn't say I'd give up on baseball. There are 29 other teams I could follow.
There's been talk of them signing Placido Polanco.
And Lenny Harris, Bill Mueller, Chris Stynes...
Neither does the Cubs now erstwhile third baseman of the 2000's.
He's fine at third, although of course the proximate comparison for Rockies fans is Ty Wigginton. Next to Ty Wigginton, Gary Coleman would look like a Gold Glove third baseman.
Polanco is still under contract, although I'm guessing he could be had for a song.
Why is this? He looks like a 3rd baseman w/quick reactions and a strong arm. He seems better going to his left (though that doesn't seem to play into Tulo's positioning, who seems strong to his right). He makes accurate throws to 2nd for a DP and on the throw to 1st.
His numbers seem ok. He does fairly well in Tango's fan's scouting report, with average scores in the 60's most years.
He's not a gold glover, but he seems solid and can occasionally make the spectacular play.
Re: Walks Clogs up the Bases comment - I understand that Ramirez was not great at 3B. My point was that I expected Jedstein to be favoring an inexpensive solution at 3B who was a solid glove and a decent on base guy, since the 3B market is fairly poor - if you can't replace Ramirez's bat with another bat, then replace him with a better glove and a passable bat. Other than his injury-shortened 2009 and his lost 2010, Ramirez is a 3.5-5.0 WAR player. Stewart has been a 1+ WAR player when given PT; maybe he has a little more gain in him. I'm just saying that I was hoping for someone a little better than Stewart, but I guess he'll do, and he's obviously way more affordable.
3 Arb years left. Stewart might not turn into anything, but he didn't cost us much and won't cost much money if he doesn't get better.
And aside from Aramis, I don't think there are any better FA options out there.
Maybe. But that comment isn't really relevant to this trade. This trade didn't cause the Cubs to have a bad 2012 3b man. Before this trade, the Cubs 2012 3b man was going to be a fringy player... after this trade, the Cubs 3b man is going to be a fringy player with some upside.
There's a good chance Stewart doesn't actually solve their problem but what did it cost then to find out? Outfielders are easier to replace.
Still doesn't cover for the terrible roster management in anticipation of the rule 5 - but I'll set my torch to just 'smolder' for now.
So far this offseason has created the upside of "hey, we might win 78 games this year if everything works out and we'll probably be terrible in 2013 too". It is like the Cubs suddenly turned into the Pirates. I wouldn't mind this trade if the Cubs were actually active this year buth they are not and these are the "big moves" of the offseason.
Also, WAR underrates Stewart a bit - well, it probably rates his past value reasonably well, but his past value is hurt by the idiocy of the Rockies trying to turn him into a second baseman. "Rightward shifts along the defensive spectrum almost never work." By TZ, Stewart is +2 / 150 games at 3B, by BIS he's +6 / 150, and by UZR he's +2 / 150. His negative defensive numbers are a function of the other positions he's been pushed to play. Stewart in the majors has an average bat and an average glove for a third baseman. He's been hanging around 1.0 WAR, but give him a full season and don't jerk him around between different positions, and he should be able to give you that league average 2 WAR at a discount price.
Jose Reyes plays the same position as our best player.
Albert Pujols was signed through age 42.
CJ Wilson took a hell of a lot less money because he wanted to go to Anaheim.
Goood.... goood.... my young apprentice. Let the pessimism flow through you. Embrace the idea of writing off two years in favor of the great reward. Take your primate weapon and strike down the patch job proponents.
Your overconfidence is your weakness.
Your faith in the Cubs is yours.
That is ridiculous. Exactly how does this trade prevent you from making any other move this offseason?
Geez some of you folks are so demanding, a trade is only worthwhile if you trade #### and get silver apparently.
As for upside, Stewart merely has to play as well as he did 3 out of the past 4 years for the Cubs to have a league average starting 3b man.
As for the big, cornerstone pieces, Prince and Darvish are still out there.
The issue isn't the trade itself. One pile of dog poop for another pile of dog poop is technically a fair trade in terms of value.
The issue is the announcement that Ian Stewart is the Cubs' starting 3b for 2012. That's awful.
As opposed to the announcement of DJ LeMahieu as your starting 3b?
It isn't news that the Cubs are in dire straits and don't have much talent. That has been going on. That is the result of things that happened months and years before today.
As of Dec. 9th, Ian Stewart is the best 3B in the Cubs' organization. As of Dec. 7th, the best 3B in the Cubs' organization was some guy who's worse than Ian Stewart (DeWitt playing out of position?, Vitters at least a year too soon?). The cost of this upgrade was nothing of value to the Cubs (Colvin's just not that good).
They could have said "We like having Ian Stewart on our roster and will continue to explore options to improve the team" or something generic like that.
Instead, on Dec. 9, they've announced that Ian Stewart will be the starting 3b. They've announced, essentially, that with two months to go until Spring Training, they've given up on finding a 3b better than Ian Stewart. And seeing as how Ian Stewart is bad, that's not good.
Eh, I think you're putting too much stock in post-trade blather. The Cubs have a lot of work to do at a lot of positions and I'm sure they have a lot more that they'll do between now and spring training. The reality is that they're probably not going to find a better 3B than Stewart, because there aren't a lot of better 3B available out there. But if a better option presents itself, I'm pretty sure the Cubs aren't going to turn it down because they promised the starting job to Stewart four months before the season starts.
For ####'s sake, you're putting stock in some press conference announcement? Of course they're going to "announce" him as a starter. It's good for Stewart's confidence, lets him know what the expectations are and it shows your fan base "look we traded for a starter!"
IT. MEANS. NOTHING.
Its PR, its spin, its fluff.
And here is Hoyer's exact quote:
"We are expecting him to come in and he has to bounce back from last year. We are assuming he does. We are looking at him as our starting third baseman."
That doesn't exactly read as "IAN STEWART LOCKS DOWN 3B ROLE!" That reads as, Ian Stewart can start for us if doesn't suck like he did last year. They haven't committed anything to him. You really think if an opportunity to improve the club presents itself the Cubs are gonna go "Man, we'd love to make that deal... but we already picked up Ian Stewart! D'oh!"
And, as MCA said, Stewart isn't a bad player. If he hits like he did in 3 of the last 4 years, he will be a league average starting 3b and making minimum wage to boot.
The only way to get him to league average is to ignore his 2011 entirely, assume that there's no lingering effects from the major wrist injury, don't adjust his numbers for Coors, and project out his best partial seasons to full-time starting (which he's never really done).
His 08-10 OPS+ (ie ADJUSTED FOR COORS) averages out to somewhere right below 100, and (as someone showed the other day) the average NL 3b man had a 97 OPS+ in 2011.
By that logic ever move the Cubs make this year will be something dumb or pointless or terrible. Its just a terrible mentality. Look, I get it. Being a Cubs fan sucks. But that doesn't mean you whine about every little move that offers the potential of some incremental improvement.
Do you guys really think winning ballclubs are built by ignoring small upgrades and only making trades in which Tyler Colvin can be dealt for Evan Longoria?
Yes, shuffling the deck chairs is busy work and I'm betting that is all we are going to see from the Cubs this offseason.
Yes because taken as a whole all they have done is make a 72 win team maybe a 75 win team. Hooray, lets all get excited. So far the moves do diddly squat in terms of getting the Cubs to playoffs next season or the seasons after that. The Cubs don't need to fill out their bench or get a league average huy here or there. They need guys that can add many wins to the bottom line and so far they haven't done it and look to completely forego getting any of those guys this offseason.
Do you guys really think winning ballclubs are built by ignoring small upgrades and only making trades in which Tyler Colvin can be dealt for Evan Longoria?
Do you really think winning ballclubs are made by taking a crappy team and adding guys that look to be minor upgrades over replacement?
There's not much else available... I doubt the Mets move Wright after Reyes left. Youkilis? Precisely what do the Cubs have to trade FOR him (also keeping in mind that the near-miss playoff BoSox don't exactly have in-house replacement options either).
The minute the Cubs decided not to resign A-Ram -- which I'm fine with -- the 3B immediately and inevitably became someone like Ian Stewart. They have neither the chits nor is there the availability of anyone of higher quality.
The Cubs picked up A-Ram's option, but then A-Ram decided to exercise his own option to void the deal and become a free agent.
According to USA Today, it would have cost about 300 million over 10 years for the Cubs to best the income tax difference adjusted value of the highest bidder, which was the Marlins offering 10/275 plus no state income tax. Rosenthal reports that the Marlins were willing to offer CJ Wilson 100 million.
I suppose that is what McCoy wished the Cubs would have done. Just throw half a billion dollars out there and sign Pujols and Reyes and Wilson and everyone else out there.
It mostly doesn't matter what the Cubs do this offseason, they're going to be bad. There isn't any magic free agent out there to put them over the hump.
Long-term winning ballclubs are built in the first week of June and in the days after July 2nd. That is when you need to look at what the Cubs do.
Shuffling deck chairs? The Cubs needed a 3rd basemen. Someone has to play that position. And prior to this deal, the best option was DeWitt. A guy who probably should be playing 2B because someone has to play that position too and Barney ain't all that great.
I'dve liked it if the Cubs woulda re-signed Aramis because I like him. Or Jose Reyes, if he'dve played 3rd. But there are reasons why those options aren't particularly realistic or all that great. So absent those, the Cubs had to get someone.
Ian Stewart is young, has a dollop of upside and could be a complimentary player on a championship caliber team.
David DeJesus needs to be around so the Cubs won't have to run a Tyler Colvinesque player out to RF every day. (Had he come cheap, Beltran may have been a better, older choice. Otherwise, Willingham? Coco Crisp?)
I suppose that is what McCoy wished the Cubs would have done. Just throw half a billion dollars out there and sign Pujols and Reyes and Wilson and everyone else out there.
But MIA wasn't offering no-trade clauses. Chicago could have beaten their offers with total dollars between LAA and MIA.
Not saying they should have, but I wish the Yankees had dangled 5/85 and a no-trade in front of CJ Wilson.
I hadn't realized the Angels outbid the supposed bid of the Marlins.
There isn't any magic free agent out there to put them over the hump.
The Cubs are not the Pirates. They can get more than one free agent at a time.
I'dve liked it if the Cubs woulda re-signed Aramis because I like him. Or Jose Reyes, if he'dve played 3rd. But there are reasons why those options aren't particularly realistic or all that great. So absent those, the Cubs had to get someone.
Ian Stewart is young, has a dollop of upside and could be a complimentary player on a championship caliber team.
David DeJesus needs to be around so the Cubs won't have to run a Tyler Colvinesque player out to RF every day. (Had he come cheap, Beltran may have been a better, older choice. Otherwise, Willingham? Coco Crisp?)
And again if the Cubs had gone out and gotten a couple of good players nobody would really care about these particular moves. The problem is that this is the Cubs' offseason. Both players basically solve a problem for next year for what looks to be a bad team. Yippee. Neither player solves anything long term nor does it look to put the Cubs into a position to solve those problems.
Getting average-ish production from certain spots at minimum wage is a necessity if you want to be able sign superstars at other positions.
You're complaining for the sake of complaining. Enjoy 2012.
But the Cubs have already got those average-ish players at minimum wage. What they are doing is simply filling out their entire lineup with average-ish players and surrounding them with highly paid bad players. I'm not sure why anyone should be joyful about these moves.
I absolutely agree.
Unfortunately, Stewart is not a minimum wage and I'm very skeptical of his ability to produce at an average rate.
For all the condescension in that post, it's my point that's going over your head. I agree that going cheap with upside is the way to go at 3b. But Ian Stewart isn't that cheap and I don't see that much upside.
I would have been just fine with a Baker/Dewitt platoon or something if this is the alternative.
Well, I'm glad they didn't go that route since it means giving up a draft pick that has more value down the road.
I would have been just fine with a Baker/Dewitt platoon or something if this is the alternative.
I am speechless.
Well, I'm glad they didn't go that route since it means giving up a sandwich pick that means more for the future.
Sure it does.
I am speechless.
Why? Obviously the Cubs look to be punting the near future. Right now they have a lottery ticket's chance of doing something next year. What does it matter who is at third? Stewart isn't going to be the answer at third base for any other point in time other than next year and perhaps the year after that. And he isn't going to be a good answer.
What's the argument for Baker/DeWitt? DeWitt has never hit for average, he has never hit for power, and he's been consistently mediocre with patience. Jeff Baker will be 31 years old next season and has a career OPS+ of 94 (87 last year). The odds of those guys morphing into stars has to be as close to zero as it can get.
2012: $6,000,000
2013: $10,000,000
2014: $16,000,000 of which 6 million is deferred
2015: $4,000,000 buyout on a $14,000,000 option
This is something the Cubs should have passed on?
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