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1. Dale Sams Posted: September 09, 2011 at 03:18 AM (#3920007)Oh.
/smashes empty JD bottle
Take out the 7 head to head games, and if TB power sweeps then they have to go 9-4 in the other games while the Red Sox go 8-4. Or any combination that simply involves the Rays being 1/2 a game better. Still not easy given the Red Sox have 7 against the Orioles while the Rays have 6 vs the Yankees.
Rays pretty much need to sweep 7 games. Even one loss would probably finish them. If we treat the games as coinflips to simplify (Red Sox have had better talent, but current pitcher health and Rays having Jennings around even things up a bit) the chances of flipping heads 7 times in a row is just slightly under 1 percent.
So I'm sayin they have a chance. Take what you can get for exciting pennant race baseball.
Speaking for myself (and as one of the primary Chicken Littles here) I think we understand it just fine. If 2004 proved anything it is that what has happened in the past has no bearing on what will happen in the future.
If the Sox were rolling out Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling and Bronson Arroyo this weekend I'd feel pretty good, instead it's John Lackey, Kyle Weiland and Jon Lester. Obviously Lester is phenomenal but James Shields (who is scheduled to face him) is not some kind of stiff.
Look, the reality is that the Sox are likely to make the playoffs, I get that. But I don't think it is nearly as certain as others do. I'd peg it at 75-80% rather than the 95% or so that most seem to think.
It's funny. I think if their pitching staff was all healthy and doing well, but Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youkilis were hurt, Sox fans would feel a lot less anxiety. I don't think it's rational, but bad pitching gives fans a lot more anxiety than bad hitting. That said, the Sox get to put out a line-up that is ridiculously good.
As a Red Sox fan, I also feel that was about some of my brethren. 2004, in particular, was enough to keep me basically happy as a Red Sox fan for a long, long time. Some people like to overreact to every cold and hot streak, though - I guess it's their right, even if I think they are a little nuts.
The Sox are 6.5 up with 19/20 to play. Maybe they collapse, maybe Tampa comes back, whatever. It's highly unlikely, and it's way too soon to worry about it anyway.
If the Rays go 6-1 against Boston, much of Red Sox Nation would have an "Ich bin ein Pants Pisser!" moment. Losing 6 of 7 to Tampa would cut 5 games off a lead that now stands at "only" 6.5 games. Playing that poorly wouldn't bode well for holding onto a slim lead with another 12 games to account for. It's a very steep path for Tampa, and I don't think they're likely to make it all that close, but Boston needs to beat them more than once to finish them off (absent the unlikely scenario of the Rays playing poorly against everyone but Boston while Boston plays well against everyone but Tampa).
Really, I think they'd get pounded. Pedro and Schilling haven't pitched in years.
I guess they're younger than Wakefield, and no worse than Lackey and Miller.
Go Rays!
Lackey vs. Davis . Davis has thrown a quality start in 4 out of his last 6 appearances. Lackey is 2 for 6 in the QS department.
Hellickson vs. Weiland, and Lester vs. Shields sort of speak for themselves.
Also, the Rays will be fielding 5 players with an OPS+ of over 130. Sox have 2 players with an OPS+ over 130. 5 also if we go down to Reddicks 124. Who ,like Joyce, will be platooned against lefties.
So...I don't see it as being anywhere close to a coin-flip.
Except that it's baseball, so it's pretty close to a coin flip when a bad team is playing a good team.
They'll be fine.
The slacks soiling is starting to remind me of 2007, which I suppose is a very good thing.
See. I didn't soil my slacks in 2007. I looked at the schedule, looked at the team, the general health, and said 'Yanks arn't catching up'.
I don't think the Rays will catch up either, but the smell from poopied drawers is gonna be pretty thick come Sunday.
edit: I just poked my nose around 2007. You know who was better than Carl Crawford? Besides JD Drew. JD Drew's 2007 stacked against Crawford's 2011 is a no-brainer. In 2007, CC was better than CC. Coco Crisp had a better 2007 than Carl Crawford is having. That's not including defense. Hell, Coco Crisp today is better than Carl Crawford.
Holy ####, Crisp has 40 Stolen bases?
As someone (Andy?) mentioned in the last pants-pissing thread, if the Red Sox fall into a race with Tampa there's a good chance the Rays will be facing the B-squad Yankees the last three games of the season.
Huh? The Red Sox have three over the completely arbitrary 130 cutoff, as well as Pedroia at 128 and Youkilis at 127.
I want to play this game too. The Red Sox have three players with an OPS+ over 140. The Rays have only 1, if you count Jennings!
(Note the key cutoff there - OVER 140, not exactly at!)
To be fair to the many many many normal and sane people out there I think the pants-pissers are limited. I'm clearly one of them and I think Dale and maybe Teddy are the other two. I think everyone else among the Sox fans here (Ray, MCoA, Darren, Dan, etc...) are appropriately confident.
Silly arbitrary endpoints. And factually incorrect as well. Red Sox have 3, not 2, fulltimers who are well over 130. Ortiz 166, Gonzalez 159, Ellsbury 144. And two just under - Youkilis and Pedroia. Rays have a rookie at 164, but in only 44 games and with numbers that look out of place compared to his minor league numbers. Joyce is at 140, and Kotchman, Zobrist, and Longoria just barely over 130. Considering performance over more than a single season, it is laughable to draw a line that counts Casey Kotchman but deems Pedroia and Youkilis not quite worthy.
Red Sox have scored 775 runs on the season to Tampa Bay's 603. The Red Sox top hitters will all be in the lineup this weekend. Their lineup is markably superior to the Rays. The only things giving the Rays a chance are 1) better current pitching rotation and 2) this is baseball and anything can happen.
Man, I posted in this very topic and I can't get a mention here. And then one post down, AROM basically just copies my previous post! Hello? Are my posts invisible? CAN ANYONE READ THIS?!?!
*Of course, if it were 2005 Torre would have had him pitching 7th and 8th innings
I understand it perfectly-so much so that I am wondering where all these articles were about a week ago when the Rays were (for one day) only 6 games behind the Yankees. But I guess the Yankees never choke, so that must explain it. [<ahem> 2004 ALCS <ahem>]
Something's coming through very faintly on the shortwave ... Amelia Earhart, is that you?
Joe Girardi turned into the Honey Badger in September.
That's kind of weird. Wonder whatever happened to ol' Biff.
Tell me about it.
I was going to respond to Biff (R.I.P.), but I thought it was plain by my silly arbitrary datapoints, that my...point..was that the Rays right now arn't the Giants. They actually have a formidable offensive line-up at this point in time, as Lackey* and Weiland are going to learn very soon now. I do disagree completly that at this point in time, the Sox's lineup is *markably* superior to the Rays.
And for the billionth time I think:
1. The Sox will finish 9-10 (dead on course for my previously predicted 10-12)
2. The Sox will make it.
also Jose gave the Sox 75-80% chance of making it. I'd say 85%.
*I actually think there's a decent chance Lackey will pitch well tonight. Not because it's baseball and Lackey is a professional pitcher. Every once in a while Lackey does this "The line must be drawn here!" bit. Look for about 75% breaking stuff.
The Rays have to win 7 of 7 just to be 50-50 to beat the Sox. The odds of winning seven straight against an equally good club are 127-to-1. The odds of winning 7 straight against a team you're somewhat better than are in the range of 70- or 80-to-1. It is just extremely unlikely that the Rays will catch the Red Sox.
It could happen - weird and unlikely things happen in the world all the time - but the numbers in this thread are simply divorced from reality.
Of course, that's what all the pants-pissers are doing more broadly, so, have at it.
During the Sox recent 3-7 slump, they have scored 57 runs and allowed 61. They've had some bad luck in close games, while playing some of the best teams in baseball, without a fully healthy staff. They'll be fine.
I didn't copy, more like agree with, expanded on, and went on a few tangents. I did read your post. I guess I could have quoted yours in addition to Dale's, coming up with different formating to distinguish them, but I'm not Andy.
I was just going on a riff, no worries. It's generally not a good idea to take me very seriously.
Oh for the good ole days...
Augh! Math! Brain hurts.
I'd give you 4-1 on Sat. If Miller were pitching tonight I'd give you 4-1 tonight too. (insert required crack about how Vegas would love to do business with me)
Just until October?
With Bedard, it's a shock he's thrown a pitch in Sept. He's used to staring his vacation on Aug. 15.
I see dead people.
Yeah, it would be a terrific story. Wouldn't it be better if they caught the Yankees though? THAT would be truly amazing!!!
Now excuse me, I have to figure out what small appliance I can break when the Sox are down 4-0 in the 3rd tonight.
It might create 10 new fans. TB has already sone the whole 'smash the Red Sox' thing.
It would be fun to go to those early season doom and gloom Red Sox threads where people were calculating what Win-Pace the Sox would need to play to get back in it, and say..."oh by the way, they also play .500 ball in August and September....and still make the playoffs!"
So which small appliance did you pick?
Seriously, this team is absolute toast. The pitching is a joke and the offense isn't much better. They are explosive but basically they have 1 or 2 games a week where they score like 12 runs and then they swing like rusty gates. Everyone got on me for pissing my pants but this has been coming for awhile. They were fortunate in August (and it might yet save their bacon) to have a streak where they won 4 consecutive games that were tied or trailing going to the ninth inning.
I just can't see this team winning more than 6 games the rest of the way. You can't win when your starting pitching has you in a 4 run hole 4 times out of 5.
Wait, what?
Oh, this comment is about the Rays. Nevermind.
EDIT: By "not going anywhere" I mean they are going to be a meaningful part of the AL playoff picture, not that they won't win a lot.
And 50 - I think Jim is talking about Tampa when he says "them".
Jim is BTF's longest-standing Rays fan.
I had a conversation with a friend of mine earlier tonight on this topic. I'm actually less worried about how they'll play in the playoffs than about making the playoffs. I think if Beckett gets healthy then this team can do serious playoff damage. The problem is that right now they are looking like they aren't getting in.
6.5 game lead (assuming a loss tonight) with 18 to play. Sure, one or 2 teams have blown leads like that, but it's very, very rare.
Yes it's rare, but not impossible and I do think likely. I hope to God I look ridiculous in two weeks but I'm not seeing it.
I'm calling sweep. I was going to give Lester a 50/50 chance, but not now.
BUT I still think the Sox will right the ship in time.
I never count the Rays out and laugh at the arrogance of Red Sox and Yankee fans who pull the "Look at the Rays, they had a couple of decent years and are done now!"...card.
Jose: They have a 5.5 game lead with 18 to play. It's _really_ hard to blow that. As to the "slump," two of the last three losses have been by 1 run -- and at least one of them was because Terry Francona sucks at managing. (Yes, he sucks at managing.) I didn't see the other loss, so I don't know whether he found a way to screw that one up as well.
They're down Beckett, but they've got their entire lineup right now other than Youkilis. And Lester and Bedard and pray for rain three times really ought to be more than enough.
If the Rays pull really close but fall just short at the end you'll have some serious questions to live with all winter. Keeping Jennings down is defensible, given that his minor league numbers did not show what was to come, and that he started the year slowly and probably wasn't 100%.
Matt Moore not having yet thrown an MLB pitch is a tougher question. What are they saving him for? Hoping to get to the ALCS anyway so when the bullpen seems depleted they can bring him in game 7 to strike out Curtis Granderson?
Their six remaining head-to-heads could well be started by Weiland (2), Lester (2), Miller and Wakefield. With Lester matched against Shields both times, 1-5 would very distinctly be in play. And if Beckett or Bedard isn't ready by the 19th, you can throw in a start by TBD against Baltimore for good measure. It's not 50/50, but anyone claiming there's virtually no chance is almost equally deluded.
Not seeing it. ESPN has Boston at 95.9 and Tampa Bay at 3.9.
Boston is 5.5 up on TB and 6 up on LAA with 18 games remaining on the schedule. Yes, of course it could happen. It happened to the Mets in 2007. But it is extremely unlikely. Simple numbers, like in the excerpt, even after tonight: if Boston goes 8-10 the rest of the way, Tampa Bay has to go 14-5 to tie them. This scenario is, ultimately, based on the idea Boston will go something like 5-13 from now until the end of the season. Since they are 3-7 over the least 10, that would put them at 8-20 over 28 games. I think they score too many runs for it to go down like that.
Sure. But 2-4, 3-3, and 4-2 are also very distinctly in play, and a TBD against Baltimore is far from an automatic loss.
Look, if the Rays had played Jennings all year instead of fooling around with Sam Fuld, this race would actually be interesting right now. But they didn't, and it isn't.
(They were also hurt by Manny getting himself suspended and then retired. Too bad they couldn't convince him to serve his suspension and come back.)
Fuld put up a not so good May and consequently is playing time was reduced. For the most part he has put up two not very good months with the second month being in reduced starting time capacity.
If we want to look at why they can't score more runs I think we have to look at the Rays inability to find somebody who knows what a bat is for their SS position. A .534 OPS in 143 games in the AL East is just not going to cut it.
I'd say letting Bartlett go was a mistake, but he's been pretty terrible this year too.
(Though he would be an improvement on what they've trotted out there)
It would have been a 100 game suspension. After which he would have needed some minor league games to get into shape. At his age, how much he had left anyway is a serious question. Hard to see much impact there.
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