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1. Alex Vila Posted: December 06, 2010 at 01:34 AM (#3703512)Well, can't disagree with that sentiment.
Phase 3: Profit!
(holds belly)
“Absolutely bat——crazy.”
I love me some Sandy Alderson.
Right? Maybe . . . 0.3%?
Nah, he's probably overpaid next year, forget 2017.
5/75?
I know Rizzo went on to say that he hopes this changes in the near future, but doesn't saying this publicly and in such blunt terms hurt the Nationals leverage in future negotiations?
Let's not limit it to corner outfielders. This has set the market for all sorts of good-but-not-great middlin' aged hitters. It is going to be a pricey winter for shopping.
awesomeness
If this is new market rate, then we will either see today's $90 million payrolls rise to $120 million or else we'll be in for a few more lopsided seasons than we've been seeing. I think that the former is more likely, which would just show again how cheap the teams that won't spend really are. And get ready for 9 years and $270 million Albert Pujols.
Werth's contract makes a lot more sense than that one did. You've got 4 years of salary inflation, he's coming off seasons of 121, 129, 145 (12.6 WAR), and we have more confidence he's a good defensive OF.
It's a bad contract but it's not really close to Hampton, Zito, Soriano, Howard bad.
I don't buy this. You can get good through the farm system first, like Tampa and Florida did. Then, you can keep the guys you developed, if you have the money. Overpaying to prove your cred just says to me Rizzo was feeling the heat for losing Dunn.
Why? This is ordinary income. Now he might have an opinion on the marginal tax rates on ordinary income.
I agree Werth is a complementary player, and this move is sort of reminiscent of Bobby Bonilla going to the Mets. However, the '93 Mets didn't have Bryce Harper waiting in the farm system (heck, he'd just been born!).
No, the measure of a bad contract is "Would my team (the Red Sox) have paid him that much, cross-referenced with the general consensus of the insane, fringe element of said team"
Survey says: Bat-#### crazy.
Perhaps the Nationals brain trust places a higher value on defensive ability than the BTF crowd. Not sure there is another explanation.
Given Werth's age and relatively short resume for this type of contract, he's a risk, but the Nationals have to take some chances if the franchise is going to move forward. The fans are restless, Strasberg is out for 2011, Harper isn't likely to be ready, and the Lerners were close to being saddled with the label of "not caring about winning" - something that could have crippled the brand. Getting a quality free agent probably requires an overpay under these circumstances. Kudos to the Nats for going for it.
It's not the AAV, though that's an overpay, but the years. A lot depends on 1) how good a hitter he'll be outside of Philly, and 2) how well he ages. WRT #2, I think Werth's a tough guy to predict, because he was, for a host of reasons, an extremely late bloomer.
What's tough? Sign the best players in baseball for slightly below market value while developing superstars through the draft and minor league system while creating a payroll structure that is both fiscally responsible and flexible while not turning a profit or losing money while making the playoffs regularly but not so regularly that failing to win the World Series cheapens the season.
Piece of cake.
Maybe, but it doesn't start his relationship with the fans off on the best footing: "Here's our shiny new free agent hitter; by the way, he demanded extra $$$ to play in front of you chumps."
He could just cite cost of living differences...
They are a problem, sure, but they're a problem in 2017. I can understand why Nats fans wouldn't be terribly upset about that.
Beltre: 5 years-18.5mill per / 4 votes 11.11%
Crawford: 7 years-18.5mill per / 9 votes 25.00%
Werth: 5 years-19.5 mill per / 12 votes 33.33%
Dunn: 4 years-15 mill per / 11 votes 30.56%
I don't buy this. You can get good through the farm system first, like Tampa and Florida did. Then, you can keep the guys you developed, if you have the money. Overpaying to prove your cred just says to me Rizzo was feeling the heat for losing Dunn.
Most everyone ripped on the Tigers during the 04-05 offseasons, when they overpaid guys like Pudge and Magglio because it was the only way to get guys to Detroit. Coupled with a revamped farm system, it turned the entire franchise around.
I don't love Werth, and I don't like the deal, but I can understand the strategy.
I don't love Werth, and I don't like the deal, but I can understand the strategy.
I agree. In addition, the Lerner's have a reputation of being cheap so far. The payroll has been low, and the perception among some fans (an admittedly small and select sample being those I talk to) is that they don't care if they put a winning team out there. Coupled with losing Dunn, and I think the Nats had to do something. Werth was not the best move (I would have prefered Crawford), but I think something like this was necessary.
Maybe Crawford wasn't interested in coming to DC or his price was even higher?
Or weak public schools. I've heard ballplayers really value good schools.
An absolutely fair point. I think Crawford at that money would have been a better deal for the Nats, but I have no idea if the Nats approached him or not, or what Crawford's reaction was. Werth may well have been Plan B. But I just don't think Werth deal was all that terrible, given the overall issues for the franchise.
Piece of cake.
Love it.
And while not everyone thought so at the time everyone NOW sees that Soriano's deal was bad
What has always intrigued me is how agents cite deals like Soriano's as evidence of the "going rate", yet many time the deals they cite are [pretty good arguments if you are a GM for not signing such deals.
I like Werth, hes a good player, but the odds of this being a good deal are very small- the odds of it being poor are quite good, the odds of it being a disaster deal are higher than it being a good deal.
Futurama ref.
I think the Detroit example works; they were a go-nowhere team, spent money, and went to the World Series. And Arizona did in the early part of this century.
But others have tried, albeit on a smaller scale. Tampa signed Wade Boggs and Fred McGriff. Baltimore has spent much of the Aughts throwing big, stupid money at veterans in order to compete. Toronto signed Wells and Rios, as a "splash".
In the Nineties, the Pirates spent most of each offseason buying over-thirty FAs to "make Pittsburgh a more attractive destination".
And famously, in 2000, the Rangers blew every other team's doors off, signed A-Rod, and lost ninety games a year with him.
That's just off the top of my head. It isn't my money either (and that's a point that is well-placed by #59), but my opinion is that the "splash to establish legitimacy" doesn't work out very much. And on the merits of the deal from a baseball perspective, I don't even think it's defensible.
** The ripple effect of which was:
1. Stalling Utley
2. Trading Placido Polanco v1 for Ugueth Urbina
1. Stalling Utley
2. Trading Placido Polanco v1 for Ugueth Urbina
3. Stalling Howard (a bit)
4. Dumping an injured Thome at half-price
they knew the Red Sox were going to pounce Monday morning, so he headed them off at the pass.
And Werth's agent didn't bother to call the Sox to see if they'd match/beat the offer? Or Werth's agent knew this contract was so batshit crazy that there was no need to call Boston?
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