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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
FACT:
Gary Matthews, Jr. is a 32-year-old outfielder with a career OPS+ of 96 and Equivalent Average of .258—over his career he has just been below average as a hitter. Last year, his 119 OPS+ mark marked the first time he had ever exceeded 109, and only the third time he had exceeded 100 in his career.
FACT:
Despite making highlight reels, Matthews’ defense last year rated mediocre or worse by both zone rating and PMR, not to mention by Davenport’s non-play-by-play defensive metric, for whatever that’s worth.
FACT:
Per Rosenthal, Matthews, Jr. will be making $10M per from Arte Moreno through age 37.
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I've seen plenty of shots taken at Edmonds over the years but I don't often see him called choker. I don't know about the down-the-stretch stuff but it's tough to argue with a .277/.365/.523 line in 220 postseason ab's in which his team has won 8 of 13 series (thanks b-ref).
though I agree with you that this is a worse blunder than the Edmonds trade.
Now, then: what happens when oil tops $100/bbl, and gasoline goes, say, to $5/gal. for unleaded regular?
People keep driving; it's the American way. They'd quit eating first.
Since someone brought up Santana being a free agent after this year, Pujols would have been also, imagine how much money he would have made in this market.
I'm thinking the same thing about the Tigers. Rogers, Jones and Pudge all come off the books.
This is a very good off-season to have pitching prospects to trade to fill your holes, rather than tying up this crazy kind of money.
People keep driving; it's the American way. They'd quit eating first.
They may get that thrust upon them.
I'll be here all week.
It's a lot of money, but it's a new market.
They may get that thrust upon them.
Cool. Then we won't be the fat country anymore. And Carlos Lee might be able to stay in left field (though I think he'll get enough $ to drive and eat.)
People keep driving; it's the American way.
Yeah, the whole getting to places thing is such a drag.
Chilling.
1. I agree that the market is shifting, but these things go in cycles, and the cost of missing out on a Matthews type player isn't much. Really, likely there's a decent chance a NRI will duplicate his performance next year alone; even if I'm wrong on that, it's closer than it should be to $50 million.
What happens when the next big guy comes available? Does this mean they can't afford Tejada any longer?
What happens when the market shifts backwards a bit? We've seen this very decade a blip in constant inflation already.
2. Jays fans like myself are hosed. We've got a great CF on our team, but one whose price has gone through the rough in the last few days. How can he fit into a 2008 payroll with big $ already committed to Thomas, Halladay, Burnett, and Ryan? On the flip side, that Thomas deal is looking better and better.
3. At the end of this offseason, this deal will still look bad. Big $ to good players is risky enough: big money to the mediocre?
4. Who's this guy going to be blocking on the Angels? I thought they had plenty of MLB ready youngsters. Wouldn't Figgins in CF make a helluva lot more sense?
5. I couldn't agree more that selling in this market would be the best move of all. Either that or waiting 'til all the $ is spent and pulling a "JP on Molina" on the remaining decent bets. Someone like Matthews might over price himself and still be unemployed in Jan/Feb.... :)
Heh. 'Cause god knows Cub fans have such fond memories of Sarge Jr. Guy was a spare part on a 95-loss team.
His daddy was my favorite player on the '84 Cubs, though.
For the Angels, Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers (and maybe the Cubs), this is really the only reasonable upside I can think of -- by setting the price of all free agents at too many years and too much money, it slams teams like the A's and Twins, so it's now double or nothing on the farm systems.
I can't wait to hear writers and announcers, particularly Angels ones (well, just Rex Hudler) start to wonder why Matthews is "struggling" when in fact he's hitting like he usually does.
12/360?
4. Who's this guy going to be blocking on the Angels? I thought they had plenty of MLB ready youngsters. Wouldn't Figgins in CF make a helluva lot more sense?
The Angels' top prospects are all infielders. I was hoping they'd see that and make at least one of them an outfielder since Cabrera'll blocking two of them for a couple more years.
I'm going to take some drugs, go back to sleep. Hopefully, this deal'll turn out to be a bad dream -- though I think that's going to be true regardless.
- 29 years old in 2007
- league average hitter (97 OPS+)
- excellent baserunner, will steal 40-50 bases at 75% rate
- average to slightly below average CF
- will make, what, $3M in 2007?
Gary Matthews:
- 32 years old in 2007
- league average hitter (96 OPS+)
- decent baserunner, not a SB threat
- average CF (splitting the difference between dial and fan view)
- will make $50 M over the next 5 years.
Hmmm...
Some of us are smart enough to live in places where you can take the bus to get somewhere.
Of course, I deliver pizzas for a semi-living, so I guess I'm just screwed.
By then, they won't be able to afford the jet fuel.
The DiceK posting fee's looking better and better as a value proposition...
So does Reggie Willits, with the added bonus of being able to draw a walk and not cost $10MM/year. Unless he's the greatest CFer in history with the glove, this deal is amazingly horrendous.
I would be more upset if Stoneman ends up screwing the developments of Wood, Kendrick, etc.
I also live in such a place. Of course, it's not as though buses are exemplars of fuel efficiency, are they?
While I did hope that Willits might get more of an opp, this is team that had the best record in all of MLB in the second half of the season and finished 3rd in OPS during the same period, largely due to some mid-season steps forward by the kids. They have solid starting pitching and a solid bullpen, and another step up by the kids in 2007 will likely give them their division by at least five games.
Sure, Matthews got stupid-money, but don't turn this into something more...
The Angels, even with their big second half, finished just 8th in runs scored after the break. Hopefully, Morales and Kotchman get time and improve, and one assumes Kendrick will be an immediate offensive upgrade over Kennedy, but these aren't givens. Getting Matthews isn't exactly going to give them any breathing room offensively, and guarantees that the team can't upgrade that position for the forseeable future.
I'll agree that this signing isn't the end of the world, but the 2007 division is ripe for the taking. The Angels could've went balls out and gone after Drew, making themselves the clear favorites, and instead they settled for someone who could be a real liability during the second half of this contract.
And that's before taking into account that the Angels just paid $50MM for something less than mediocrity. Lord, how I hope he merely turns out to be mediocre.
If we didn't get Vlad in 2004 we'd be the Mariners.
C'mon. This move is awful, but you guys have 6 starters that would start on basically any other team; a top notch closer; one of the game's best farm systems; and of course young major leaguers with a lot of potential. Cheer up, or trade the Yankees Kendrick and Weaver plz.
A healthy Matthews should hit .280, hit 15 HRs, steal 15 bases - he'll run more and better situations - and play a passable CF. Yeah, I know...$10m doesn't buy what it use to, but it's hardly worth this level wailing and moaning.
Here's what I wrote on May 2nd of last year:
Turns out I was right. Had they done that sooner, they might have won the division.
Then this, the mack-daddy of bad deals. One really odd thing is that the Angels aren't entirely alone on this; the Giants were pretty close to this deal themselves.
I would say this is the worst I've seen in some time, but I still remember deals like the Jaret Wright contract. I also would say that this is the worst I will see in some time, but the way things are going, who knows. We might see some team give Ronnie Belliard 8 years/$64mm at some point.
I'd add that it is the no-trade clause but Stoneman hardly makes trades....
Bill Bavasi, ahead of the curve.
Games played
Drew Soriano
2001 109 158
2002 135 156
2003 100 156
2004 145 145
2005 72 156
2006 146 159
Drew has qualified for a batting title ONCE in his career. Actually, so has Matthews, Jr. Career high of 147 games, 58 BB and 19 HR last year.
Somebody can't count to two...
Actually, so has Matthews, Jr.
... and by extension, three.
I know Drew has rep of being injury prone, but he played in 145 games in 2004 and 2006 and in 2005 he got hit by a pitch in the wrist. I don't completely discount the idea of karmic forces that inflict freak injuries on players like JD Drew and Eric Davis when their chronic ones don't flare up, but unless you're banking on that, I don't see a reason to hold his injury in 2005 against him.
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