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Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Rosenthal: Dunn would be smart alternative for Dodgers

Robothalsapien V2 even comes preprogrammed with a selection of dance moves!

The Dodgers, on the other hand, are the likely favorite in the NL West. The Braves could intrigue Dunn; they have interest in him, but not on a long-term deal at his desired average salary of $12 million to $14 million, sources say.

Dunn obviously would prefer a contract longer than two years, but at the right salary such a deal would make sense.

He would be only 31 when he re-entered the market, presumably in a better economy. At that point, he might be sitting on 350 homers, giving his next team the chance to market his 500th and perhaps even his 600th.

Ramirez, of course, is chasing his own milestones, but his history suggests that he might become a distraction if he is unhappy with his contract. Who knows how he would conduct himself if the Dodgers failed to meet his goal of a four-year, $100 million contract?

Dunn strikes out more than Ramirez. His .899 career on-base/slugging percentage isn’t as gaudy as Ramirez’s 1.004 figure. And, unlike Ramirez, he has never played in the postseason.

Defense? Neither is a good left fielder, but Dunn ranked slightly higher at the position last season according to the plus-minus ratings on Bill James Online.

Repoz Posted: January 07, 2009 at 12:20 PM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rumors

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   1. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 07, 2009 at 12:52 PM (#3045209)
If I were Adam I would take a one year deal, play my *ss off and look to re-enter a much better market to start 2010. While the general economy will still be lagging somewhat things will be ticking upward.

Right now there is just too much uncertainty. That and it's a great excuse for ballclubs to try and "rightsize" their payrolls if only for a year.
   2. I Am Not a Number Posted: January 07, 2009 at 03:59 PM (#3045354)
If I were Adam I would take a one year deal, play my *ss off and look to re-enter a much better market to start 2010.

Given the paucity of quality free agents next off-season and the combination of the economy and the talent supply driving this off-season's prices down, you wonder if players might not start thinking this way.

While they'd run the risk of a 2009 injury hurting their 2010 value, as time ticks on and prices are driven down all the more, perhaps we'll start seeing this. While Ramirez would want to hold fast and leverage his other-worldly stint in LA (to say nothing of saving face and bettering the tail end of the Boston deal that he opted out of), someone as consistent and perpetually healthy as Dunn may decide to roll the dice in being able to post yet another 130-140 OPS+ and try his luck again next year when conditions figure to be more favourable.
   3. DL from MN Posted: January 07, 2009 at 04:07 PM (#3045372)
On a 1-year deal a player is also more likely to end up on a contender at the deadline. This provides pennant race clutchness opportunities.
   4. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: January 07, 2009 at 04:31 PM (#3045403)
I'm skeptical that Ned Colletti would sign Adam Dunn. It seems very likely that he would try and lower Boras' asking price for Manny with reports like this-- just like Boras uses reports of Manny signing with the Giants to raise the Dodgers' asking price.
   5. Jimmy P Posted: January 07, 2009 at 04:46 PM (#3045425)
While they'd run the risk of a 2009 injury hurting their 2010 value, as time ticks on and prices are driven down all the more, perhaps we'll start seeing this. While Ramirez would want to hold fast and leverage his other-worldly stint in LA (to say nothing of saving face and bettering the tail end of the Boston deal that he opted out of), someone as consistent and perpetually healthy as Dunn may decide to roll the dice in being able to post yet another 130-140 OPS+ and try his luck again next year when conditions figure to be more favourable.

I don't know if Dunn's value is going to increase. What more can he do? He hits 40 HRs a year, he's going to suck in the field, he's going to strike out a lot. That's what he is. The economy is not going to be that much better next year, so teams will still use that as an excuse or reasoning.
   6. Shoeless Swedish Chef Posted: January 07, 2009 at 04:55 PM (#3045438)
The economy is not going to be that much better next year,

I bet the supply of poor-fielding sluggers will be less ridiculous than this off-season at least.
   7. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 07, 2009 at 05:06 PM (#3045455)
On a 1-year deal a player is also more likely to end up on a contender at the deadline. This provides pennant race clutchness opportunities.

Dunn didn't do much with those in 2008...
   8. The District Attorney Posted: January 07, 2009 at 05:24 PM (#3045480)
I wouldn't say that. He hit fine for AZ. Especially compared to his teammates.
   9. Jimmy P Posted: January 07, 2009 at 05:24 PM (#3045482)
I bet the supply of poor-fielding sluggers will be less ridiculous than this off-season at least.

I wouldn't bet on that. There's always poor-fielding sluggers. It's the good-fielding sluggers that are in high demand.
   10. Tripon Posted: January 07, 2009 at 05:41 PM (#3045507)
Benefit for the Dodgers or a team that signs Dunn for one or two years. The likely type-A comp for him after he leaves.
   11. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: January 07, 2009 at 05:42 PM (#3045508)
He would be only 31 when he re-entered the market, presumably in a better economy. At that point, he might be sitting on 350 homers, giving his next team the chance to market his 500th and perhaps even his 600th.
This is absurd. As a GM I would sign Dunn for a four or five year deal in part because I think that marketing his shot at 500 would justify some remotely useful portion of his salary? Robo's not usually this deranged, but he really pulled this peculiar notion out of his... thin air.
   12. Jimmy P Posted: January 07, 2009 at 05:54 PM (#3045522)
This is absurd. As a GM I would sign Dunn for a four or five year deal in part because I think that marketing his shot at 500 would justify some remotely useful portion of his salary? Robo's not nearly this deranged, but he really pulled this notion out of his butt.

Nah. Adam Dunn isn't a mythical or loved player, so his milestones aren't near as marketable as others. I don't think you're going to sell out numerous games (or seasons) for the average fan to see Adam Dunn hit 500 HR
   13. Alberto Gilardino Posted: January 07, 2009 at 11:13 PM (#3045902)
If the Dodgers did sign Dunn this week, how far does Manny's market value drop? It would leave the Giants, Yankees and Mets as peripherally interested and no one willing to go close to 20 million. I think if Boras were to find out that Dodgers are close to signing Dunn, he rushes over to accept a 3 year 60 mill deal.

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