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1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 24, 2010 at 08:12 PM (#3541600)And what was Ken Griffey Jr. doing sleeping in the Mets clubhouse?
That's why I have a hard time evaluating Minaya's offseason. They pursued Pineiro and Molina but didn't end up using that money and all of a sudden Minaya doesn't have the money to sign a middle reliever late in the offseason?
This can't possibly be true.
He also said that the Astros should ask the Angels for Jered Weaver for Oswalt.
He really has absolutely no idea how this works. It's shocking.
Does Phillips not realize that the prior ten years of Roy Oswalt won't help the Nationals at all? Or does he honestly believe that Oswalt has more value going forward?
What a maroon.
what #7 said
I am not sure that Strasburg will amount to Oswalt in his career,
but the Nats wouldn't be trading Stras for Oswalt past, they'd be trading him for Oswalt future.
Does he still not know the difference?
It's not so much that "baseball people" like Phillips are wrong about prospects being unreliable, where they go wrong is that they think veterans ARE reliable.
In this scenario Stras doesn't have to pitch as well as Oswalt did for the Astros to win, just better than Oswalt does for the Nats
plus Stars doesn't look like your generic best pitching prospect in baseball (Hughes/Bailey/Weaver/Price/Hochevar*...) he looks like "oh my god this is a once in a generation talent"
*first in the nation :-)
Well, he is right about this. If I were a Nat fan, I'd definitely sign off on Strasburg having Oswalt's career. That's not to say that Strasburg is less valuable than Oswalt at this point in his career. It's just that he is a pitcher and he could either be winning Cy Youngs 5 years from now, out of baseball, or a struggling middle reliever. That's the nature of the game.
Is there a link for this, archived online somewhere?
I logged on to write what Freeballin' wrote, and I can confirm. I heard the whole thing. There were no caveats or conditions of any kind (**), no chance to back away, though surely he'll try.
At first, Phillips said something like "If I'm the Astros, I ask for Strasburg," which ... okay, of course, you can always propose something absurd ... but then he went on for several minutes saying that if he were the Nationals, he'd do it.
The tenor of the conversation was consistent with Strasburg only being a starting point; IOW, Phillips was thinking and insinutating Strasburg plus. To him it was Oswalt for prospects, plural, the typical template -- even if one of the prospects was Stephen Strasburg.
Oh, it be true. Francesa told him he was crazy. Phillps' reasoning was he's "not sure that Strasburg will amount to Oswalt in his career."
Hardly a surprise to his pals, but the part where Oswalt won't amount to Oswalt in his career was a bridge too far for Phillips. At that point, he's more perplexed than Chevy Chase channeling Gerald Ford in the debates -- "I was told there'd be no math."
(**) Other than, of course, the omnipresent possibility that he was "dreamin' chubby."
Probably some time tonight there will be on WFAN's website. But I heard it too. And I almost drove off the road when PHILLIPS called FRANCESSA crazy for saying he would NOT do that deal. Never mind the idiocy of trading Strasburg straight up for Oswalt- what would be the point of stacking the top of that rotation with Oswalt....and whoever they have now?
Steve-O also said a team could pick up Oswalt now, see what they have by June 15, and deal him by July 31. I'd love to be in his fantasy league- he'd be the guy who shows up for the draft and takes Manny Ramirez #1 overall.
I wouldn't make this trade if I was the Nats GM but Phillips may be thinking how fifteen years Generation K Wilson, Pulshipher and Isringhausen were stars of the next decade and weren't.
It's like Maine thinks the Mets are holding him hostage.
But anyway, as I said in a chat the other day, if John Maine is really truly convinced he is healthy, and will sign some sort of a binding document to that effect, then the Mets should take him at his word. And on the day he is eligible to come off the DL, they should release the following statement:
"John Maine is healthy and ready to pitch. He has convinced us by his absolute belief in this, as well as by the devastating stuff we have seem him show in his bullpen sessions. His command and mechanics are as good as new. However, we have decided, for reasons entirely unrelated to his health (since we agree with John Maine entirely that he is 100% healthy), that that the time has come for us to move in a different direction for the franchise. We have therefore granted John Maine his unconditional release, and thank him for his many contributions to the New York Mets over the years. We wish him well as he pursues his career elsewhere."
I am just completely sick and tired of John Maine. He thinks (or at least he says he thinks) he can pitch? Fine. Let him go pitch, somewhere else where they think his game hasn't grown utterly tiresome and annoying. When he's completely shut down by July 1, needs surgery again, and fails yet again to realize it's his own damn fault for not listening to his shoulder and his velocity and his lousy mechanics, it should surprise absolutely no one. John Maine will never help a team win again, and the Mets would be well-advised to move on from hoping against hope for a miracle.
It's more like he knows that unless they let him out there to pitch, he'll be lucky if someone signs him to a guaranteed contract in the offseason. The difference between him getting shut down with an injury and finding a way to grit his way through an okay June-September is many, many millions of dollars.
To my mind, the team most in need of Oswalt is ... Milwaukee. Yes, the Brewers are 10.0 games out of first and don't look like a contender. But Milwaukee has the best offensive line-up in their divsion; and probably the second best offense in the NL. If you get rid of Trevor Hoffman, their bullpen is ... maybe mediocre. Parra and Villanueva are decent relievers.
Yet in their rotation, they have Yovani Gallardo and very little else. If they could plug Oswalt into the David Bush slot and Randy Wolf is just a little bit better and Doug Davis gets healthy, I think this team stands a good chance at competing for the NL Central crown.
The key is that Houston has to have realistic expectations as to what they can get back for Oswalt (and Milwaukee has to be willing to absorb that salary). If the Brewers would offer up Eric Arnett and Willy Peralta and maybe a lesser rated prospect as well, the Astros should jump on it. They are not going to win any time soon. They might as well get some decent young arms in their system, so in a few years they can have a chance.
A Strasburg baseball card going for over $10,000?!
Impossible, there is no way Phillips could ever be admitted to the University of Chicago, much less make a sports team. One Maroon, Jay Berwanger, won the Heisman.
Maine's salary this year is $3.3M. The Mets are going to get nothing but frustration for their money; they'd be better served eating what's left of it now and just DFA'ing him. I predict that if he starts any more games for the team, the following will be true:
* no starts go into the sixth inning;
* he's finished for the season and scheduled for surgery by July 1;
* no start has more strikeouts than walks;
* he never hits 90 on the radar gun.
Good point. But would Houston move him within the division? I know they just declared bankruptcy and everything, but I also think Texas would be a good fit.
BTW, who is going to be the fifth starter until Niese comes back?
You know who I would like to see the Mets target for a rental? Kevin Millwood.
I can't see that working, either. Given his physical condition and inability to get loose warming up, putting him in the bullpen strikes me as a non-starter (no pun intended). I just can't see the viable option with Maine at this point. He's not a reliable starter, and the chances he ever will be are slim to none. Not just because of his arm woes, but also because of the pitch counts he runs up and the inability to consistently throw strikes -- it's the whole package. If I thought he was ever going to actually be good if and when he got healthy, I'd say it was worth being patient. But since I just don't see that happening, then all you get for your waiting is another audition for him once he's "healthy," and another chance to see the same cycle repeat itself. Ineffective pitching leading to another stint on the DL, leading to more surgery, leading to another shot next spring.
Time to break the cycle.
I'm really excited for Strasburg, but I can remember Rob Neyer describing Kris Benson as a no doubt future Cy Young award winner. I also remember when trading away Scott Kazmir looked like the worst deal since the sale of Babe Ruth. Phillips is still a moron, but a lot can happen with pitching prospects.
Doesn't insurance pick up something like 75% of Maine's salary when he is on the disabled list? If so, would you still DFA him?
Gotta figure it'll be either Gee or Misch. Both have posted decent numbers in Buffalo, so it'll probably be whichever one is closest to being on rotation for Friday's start.
That would be fine, too, until Maine eventually (and not too long into the future, given his squawking) files a grievance over the Mets keeping him on the DL when he claims to be healthy. But hey, as long as he's willing to keep his yap shut and stay on the DL, I'd be OK with the Mets just keeping him there. Once he goes to the tabloids after his 15 days are up and says, "I'm healthy and the Mets are keeping me on the DL for no reason," that's when I say -- fine. Here's your rehab assignment. Take 2-3 starts in the minors. Prove you can 80-90 pitches. Once he can, DFA him. And if (as I suspect), he never even survives that rehab assignment without hurting himself, just put him back on the DL.
Oswalt hasn't pitched like he did in his prime the last two seasons. He's had a nice start to 2010 but his BABIP is 40 points below his career average. He's going to be a free agent after 2011 and his contract is not cheap. I think even if you were going to trade Strasburg, you could get better in return. I wouldn't, because I think Strasburg's value in terms of being good and cheap will beat almost anybody you're going to get back.
That pennant doesn't belong to him; it was left on the doorstep by gypsies.
To be clear, I'm not arguing that they should trade Strasburg for Oswalt. But Oswalt has a 159 ERA+ this year compared to a 135 for his career, so there's significant room for his BABIP to rise with him remaining an ace starter. His xFIP this year is right around his career ERA number.
Trading Strasburg for Oswalt is a move that might have less downside risk from a baseball perspective, but more downside risk from a fan base perspective. If Strasburg doesn't pan out, I don't think anyone will fault the organization for holding onto him. On the other hand, if they trade him for Oswalt, who tanks while Strasburg goes on to win Cy Young Awards, it will be devastating.
Surprised this wasn't the lead in for the discussion.
Of course he's not, and anyone that says otherwise is just being foolish. TINSTAAPP is an absolutely ridiculous position, but the actual logic that does exist behind it is more with not knowing if a guy is going to get hurt. It's not a coincidence that some guys, not just pitchers, get hurt a lot. Some guys just have more fragile joints, muscles, etc. But when they're 21 years old and have thrown very few high stress innings, you don't really know which are which.
Doyle Alexander had a 279 ERA+ for the Tigers in 1987 and they wouldn't have won the division without him. He was a very good innings-eater for two more full years, one on a serious contender, the other not.
He was 36 when the Tigers made the trade, so he's 3-4 more years older than Oswalt is now. Trading John Smoltz for him was a disaster of the highest order, and Strasburg's a better prospect than Smoltz was.
Even if Strasburg is a better prospect than Smoltz was, that doesn't mean he'll be better than Smoltz. I'd still bet his career ends up worse than Smoltz's, and that is not meant as a slight. And like you said, Oswalt is younger (and better) than Alexander was at the time of that trade. Alexander had never put up an ERA+ as good as Oswalt's current career ERA+ at the time of the trade. Roy, while coming off two below-average years for him, could still put together the second half of a HOF career over the next 8 years.
To be clear again, I am not arguing that they should make this trade.
Of course. My real question was the first part, i.e. is there some threshold at which a pitcher's risk of injury dramatically decreases? (Not his actual risk of injury, which we have no way of knowing, but our expectation of his likelihood of injury, based on historical data.) Is it simply gradual, where each season of injury-free work makes him a slightly better bet to continue injury-free?
Even greater than the effusive praise Heyward was getting during spring training?
Was it? Depends on what you think the Tigers gave up. In his pre-FA period, Smoltz had a solid but hardly spectacular 109 ERA+ (and a solid 200 IP per year). How much is one pennant worth? (Note, it's better if you argue from the standpoint of what Alexander was likely to do for the Tigers in the stretch drive rather than what he did).
I would argue the Tigers did not trade Smoltz's entire career. That's an approach to trade evaluation which dates from the reserve clause days and just has no relevance to today's baseball economy. What the Tigers traded was his pre-FA years and, arguably, first crack at buying his FA years. That's still worth quite a lot (20 WAR plus whatever you think that "option" was worth) but it's not worth anything close to the 64 WAR he had through his career.
About the only way you can make a trade that's a "disaster of the highest order" these days is by a many-for-one trade. The Braves giving away all that stuff for 1.5 seasons of Teixeira (or 1 season of Teixeira plus what they got for .5 seasons of Teixeira if you prefer) is a trade that could end up being a true disaster.
And, of course, you pulled out one of the more extreme examples (though Kazmir for Zambrano is as bad or worse even if Kazmir has been something of a disappointment). But the already mentioned Benson was the #1 overall pick and he gave the Pirates 9.1 WAR in his pre-FA period -- whoop-de-doo. And he turned out a lot better than fellow #1s Taylor, Wilson, Hochevar, Bullington and Anderson (we'll write them all off to GM insanity and, other than maybe Taylor and Wilson, I honestly don't think any of them ever would have brought much in trade). Meanwile Delmon Young (#1 overall) for Garza & Bartlett isn't working out so well for the Twins.
Let's also remember that, depending on how the signing bonus would be handled in any such trade, that the first 2.5 years of Strasburg cost $15 M. That's not what we usually think of when we think "cost-controlled" prospect. (What the remaining 4 years of his pre-FA will cost will depend on what he does in those 2.5 years).
Which isn't to say I'd consider Oswalt for Strasburg for even a single second. Strasburg's first half-dozen home starts might well be more of a revenue boost than an 87-win team anyway (not that Oswalt guarantees an 87-win Nats team or even necessarily gives them a better chance at that than Strasburg). But, as most everyone has pointed out, the main reason it's a nutty trade is because there's no good reason to think that Oswalt, at this stage of his career, will deliver more baseball value over the next 2.5 years (or 1.5 if you don't exercise his option) than Strasburg.
We tend to over-vaiue prospects here IMHO. But not Strasburg really. First, there's pretty much widespread agreement that he's one of those once every 5-10 year pitching talents (so many of whose careers go awry). Second, he's pretty clearly ML-ready. His value on the market is clearly much more than Oswalt. Even if someone thinks he's going to be a bust, they'd be a fool to trade him for less than a king's ransom.
Or at least they're a fool right up until his arm falls off. :-)
Is there a point at which you can conclude a pitcher is not injury prone? I mean, Oswalt is 32, he hasn't missed significant time in 6 years, and he hasn't been hurt in 8 of his 9 MLB seasons. Or is he just as likely to get hurt as your generic TINSTAAPP or 26-year-old?
I'd say yes and no. Pre-25 is a different world than post-25 and Oswalt's made it through the grinder. But he's still got a good chance of missing a full season sometime soon, just probably a little lower than most other post-26 year olds. Still, there usually comes an age where pitchers (usually) start to wear down both in terms of quantity and quality of performance. Before you know it, those 230 IP seasons become 200 IP seasons then 180 IP seasons and the 130 ERA+ become a 115 ERA+ become a 100 ERA+. Oswalt's a pretty good bet to last another 6-10 years but, after putting up nearly 40 WAR in his first 9 seasons, he'll probably be lucky to put up 20 over the remainder of his career. Maddux, a much better and mnore durable pitcher than Oswalt in his prime, possibly the best RHP of all-time, had 29 WAR post-32 (11 seasons). That would seem the upside for Oswalt.
OK, re-reading, I guess it depends on what you mean by "injury-prone". Past injury is a good predictor of future injury so Oswalt is clearly not "injury-prone" and there's no particularly good reason to think he'll bounce on and off the DL over the next 6 years. But his chances of getting hurt soon are still pretty high just because he's a pitcher and I'm not sure they're much lower than some otherwise similar guy who's come back from injury to pitch two good, durable seasons. That is I'm not sure 6 straight non-injury seasons is that much better than 3 non-injury seasons, one injury season, 2 non-injury seasons or similar combinations. But, sure, it has to be better than Kerry Wood.
I seem to recall Mark Prior having similar hype.
And he lived up to it. His career ended prematurely, but the Cubs got a ton of value out of his arm while it lasted. FanGraphs estimates $47M for 16 WAR in his first 4 years.
Right now Oswalt is averaging 3.5 WAR the last 3 years, and is owed $33M ish for the next two years. Assume Oswalt continues to perform at that plateau without declining. If Strasburg turns out like Prior, he'll put up 10 WAR this year and next, while Oswalt will put up 6 WAR from now until the end of 2011. Strasburg gives you 4 more wins for $23M less dollars over those two years alone, without talking about the years afterwards.
That seems excessive.
His back problems last year don't count? They cost him like three or four starts - and it's not like bad backs ever really get better.
IIRC the way it worked was that if a player was traded during a multi-year, non-arbitration contract he had to finish the season on that team, and then he could demand a trade in the offseason. The player had to give the team a list of potential destinations (I forget the prescribed number)and if his current team could not work out a trade he could then opt out of his contract and become a FA. This clause was completely done away with in the new CBA, but anyone who signed their deals under the old one was grandfathered in.
I think advocating trading Strasburg for Oswalt is probably more egregious than not having an exact grasp of some of the minutiae of a how clauses have transferred across CBAs.
A 116 OPS+ in 4112 PAs from 1988-1995
Jefferies = Disappointment
Disappointment does not always = bust
Bill Pulsipher
Dewon Brazelton
John VanBenschoten
Bryan Bullington
those guys are busts
I was going to include Moskos to complete the Pirate Trifecta, but see that he's been restored to the Pen and has a 1.31 ERA and a 9k/9 this year, it's probably too late to give VanBen a bat and see what he could do with it though
Just use Bobby Bradley.
It's so hard to remember which is which among all those starting pitchers with names that start with B...John Van Benschoten, Bobby Bradley, Bryan Bullington, Sean Burnett (now a good pitcher immediately after leaving the Pirates, as usually happens), Brad Lincoln (ACTUALLY STILL A GOOD PROSPECT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!).
The thing about Jefferies is that AAA pitching held him to .282/.322/.395 (with 10 of his 32 walks intentional). Yeah, not the greatest place to hit. Yeah, more than holding your own in AAA at 20 (after dominating in AA at 19) is extremely promising. But that's the limit. The early part of Jefferies' career is perfectly in line with his play at AAA.
Alex Rodriguez is a better comp for Strasburg. .360/.411/.654 in AAA at 19. Yeah, PCL. Even so, you can take an awful lot of air out of that and it's still outstanding.
I don't really consider 3 or 4 starts "significant time". I don't know whether bad backs ever get better, but Randy Johnson managed to win 120 games and 4 CYAs between back injuries in 1996 and 2003. Not that Oswalt is RJ, but I think people are too quick to write him off.
This is a seperate issue. We're talking about hype. Jefferies was hitting like Ty Cobb in the previous years and winning all the prospecty awards. He had one poor year in AAA. But the Jefferies hype exploded after he was called up and smoked the ball in the majors.
I feel like Jefferies, Ken Griffey Jr, Andruw Jones, and Mark Prior were all on a similar level of ultra-hyped prospectitude. Guys just a small level below that include Felix Hernandez, Todd Van Poppel, Chipper Jones, Steve Avery, Joe Mauer, JD Drew, ARod... Strasburg clearly belongs in the stratosphere, with Jefferies, Prior etc.
I wasn't around to judge the hype that Strawberry got, or Mantle, or whoever, but obviously the further back you go the less people knew in general about the minor leagues. I think Strasburg and Harper show that the hype is just going to keep building for these guys.
Much too late. He had surgery on both shoulders, and it hurts him to swing the bat now.
That seems excessive.
Steve Phillips should be Tased.
That seems too lenient.
That seems excessive.
Not if you can go in the time machine to 1999 and then shoot him. That would be okay. Anytime before he trades for Mo Vaughn.
Wouldn't MLB have to approve of any payroll additions? If their stewardship of Montreal is any indication, this won't happen.
Since I can look thngs up like this now... the IL hit .244/.310/.352 that yea (YOWZA!)
a 20 year old who can manage a 116 OPS+ in AAA is a good prospect....
AROD's PCL hit .285/.350/.423, if Jefferies was in a .285/.350/.423 league rather than .244/.310/.352 he would have hit something like: .328/.364/.475, which we would all say were fine numbers for a 20 year od in AAA, even the PCL
Anywho, he posted a 106 OPS+ as a 22 year old and 111 at 23...
BUT
1: It was clear that his future was not in the middle infield
1A: he had poor interpersonal skills
2: His hittng stagnated 101 at 23, 103 at 24
2A: he had really poor interpersonal skills
3: It was clear that his future wasn't at 3b either
3A: he had really really poor interpersonal skills
moved to 1B, he then hit like everyone thought he could- for 2 years
then he just seemed to get old real fast
From what I've read since then, Jefferies really had a weird upbringing, his dad was like one of those psycho female tennis phenom daddies, except he was a boy and the sport was baseball- and his dad made sure that baseball was his life-
I get the impression that he wanted to be liked, he wanted to fit in, but he literally didn't know how to do it- he had literally never been in a peer group his entire life - the hype didn't help- and literally everything he said or did was interpreted by his teammates as evidence of his self-centeredness.
Anyway my subjective impression is that Strawberry got even more hype.
This reminded my Strat-O-Matic league's 1999 draft. A friend of everyone in the league, and a first time player, landed the #1 pick. He took Manny over Pudge, Pedro, R Johnson, Alomar, Nomar, Jeter, Chipper, Walker, etc. No one could believe it. Even though Manny led the AL in OPS that year, when you factor in defense and position scarcity, he was no where close to the #1 pick.
The worse part about it was his reasoning: "Manny had 165 RBI". His team was not very good that year.
I used to be in a DMB league, one year a newbie drafted Pods in the 4th of 5th round (12 team league, the Pod *should* have been available near the 30th round-
his reason?
"I need speed"
he didn't do well
I'm pretty sure this was Gammons. I don't remember Neyer being overhwelmingly positive on the guy.
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