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I have this strange illusion in my head that the mere fact that I don't go bat-####, fan-boy crazy over every Mets' prospect that comes down the pike and has a half-decent season at Savannah helps to give me a tiny bit of credibility when I do argue, "THIS guy is the real deal."
But in my saner moments, I know that when push comes to shove, either Daniel Murphy will prove me right, or he won't. And when he does, I won't say a word around here about it. Not one . . . ;-)
You do realize that for every Brad Fullmer who makes it with that basic profile, there are a lot more AA first basemen with middling power and poor defense who end up as AAA lifers because they can't handle major league fastballs (or more often yet, major league breaking stuff)? I'm certainly not saying Carp has no chance. Anybody who's a reasonably productive hitter at the AA level at his age has a shot. But his odds are long, and he wouldn't be a guy I'd hesitate even five seconds before throwing into a deal like this.
I used to have that same delusion. Then I realized, non-Mets fans don't care whether or not you don't go batsh!t crazy over every Mets "prospect", all you have to do is tout one (just one) Met prospect higher than everyone else and you are in Kevin territory.
As I've also said, I'm rooting for Murphy, I'm a Met fan, he's still a Met, I also have him reserved in my NL only keeper league. So overall having Murphy go bust just to get the satisfaction of seeing you be wrong- no I don't want that.
Now if Carp turns into any kind of player at all? Now that I'll get some satisfaction from. Do I think he's a stud prospect? No, but I do think he's got a better chance than you or many scouts are giving him.
If you can hit AA pitching at 22 your odds are a little better than that. Most AAAA lifers don't start really hitting AA/AAA pitching until later.
Works for me. From Heilman/Ayala . . . to this. What a difference 48 hours makes. Wow.
Baseball America - 2004 Park Factors that has it as exactly at the median, a slight hitter's park in a league that's more heavily hitters' parks.
This has 7 parks being better for hitters, 4 worse.
Dan has it rated more to a hitters park.
That's about all I can find, but I stand by my statement earlier that I don't see any reason to believe it's a considerable hitter's park, with the added clarification of "compared to the rest of the league", which I meant.
I sometimes lurk USS Mariner, and I recall all the guys there always saying that Bavasi is a really, really good guy--just not a good GM. I have heard this a few other places as well.
Putz and Rodriguez in the 8th and 9th obviously makes the Mets early favorites.
Can Murphy play 1B?
And just b/c it needs to be said, the gap between 2006-7 Heilman and Putz is not that great. I'm glad he apparently still had value after his terrible 2008, and Omar got a great haul for him, but I'm one of those who thinks he could've bounced back without much difficulty.
Oh?
<u>Putz, 2006-07</u>
150 IP 96 H 31 ER 10 HR 26 BB 186 K 1.86 ERA
ERA+: 2006 -- 193; 2007 -- 314
11.16 K/9 IP
<u>Heilman, 2006-07</u>
172 IP 145 IP 64 ER 13 HR 48 BB 136 K 3.34 ERA
ERA+: 2006 -- 120; 2007 -- 140
7.12 K/9 IP
There were light years of difference between Putz and Heilman in 2006 and 2007.
At the risk of reflecting Howard Megdal stereotypes...
Oliver Perez, 2007: 6.10 IP per start
Oliver Perez, 2008: 5.70 per start
Oliver Perez, 2008 after June 2: 6.09 IP per start (note how similar in every way Perez was after June 2 to all of 2007)
Now, the absolutely reliable Derek Lowe
2007: 6.19 IP per start
2008: 6.20 IP per start
Add in the fact that Perez is nine years younger, and does it really seem like Perez is some kind of bullpen-killer? If anything, John Maine is the bullpen-killer on that staff (5.6 last season, 5.96 in 2007). But he doesn't have the faux-hawk, so he's not the flaky, unreliable one.
Seriously. I took the Perez angle because I assumed someone would point this out.
4 K per nine IP is not trivial, leaving aside the rest of the differences.
He sure is scary looking though.
Well, assuming that those numbers are park neutral, that really isn't all that valuable. In 2008, MLB average for 1b, 0.272 0.356 0.463. 2007: 0.276 0.360 0.467. 2006: 0.282 0.363 0.484.
So a below position average OPS 1b, who if you believe the scouting reports doesn't provide additional value via baserunning or D.
Useful? Sure. Guys like Dan Johnson, Josh Phelps are useful.
He actually threw harder in 2008 than when he was first called up. (His velocity was depressed when he was first called up because the Mets had been screwing with his mechanics not due to injury)- I think most teams see a guy who just needs to get his head screwed back on right to once again become a decent set-up guy- not someone who's lost a bit of stuff and is going to suck from here on.
1. I don't think this is fair, given how much they are already spending.
2. At that point, I'd rather give Lowe's money to Hudson, or a legit LF (say Dunn, with the plan of moving him to 1B in 2010 and putting F-Mart in LF). I'm with Sam on putting Murphy at 2B, but it doesn't sound like it's happening.
How much would you be willing to pay Dunn?
Actually, both Maine and Perez are relative bullpen killers. And it's not just the number of innings/start that make Ollie a problem. How you get through the innings makes a difference in the impact it has on the pen. Ollie, as we all know, has torturous innings which he struggles mightily to get through -- often after cruising through a couple or three innings -- and the manager is forced to get his relievers up. Someday we'll have to develop data on how often relievers warm up without being brought into games; Ollie and Maine (the latter to what I'd guess is a marginally lesser degree) have to be near the top of the league in causing this to happen.
When Pelfrey was doing the same thing, giving the Mets three of a kind, it was an even bigger problem. You had a situation in which in a majority of the games, it was likely the relievers would have to start throwing by the fourth inning. Now that )Pelfrey has turned a corner and throws strikes and keeps his pitch counts down, it's a much better situation. He and Santana are pretty reliable not just in going pretty deep into the games, but in usually not forcing the bullpen to get up early.
Yeah because closers in the National League face pitchers all the time.
Not about the team, about Dial.
As well, with the exception of 2004, Derek Lowe has been better than Perez every year of Perez's career. In fact, each of Lowe's seasons since 2004 have been better than every one of Perez's since 2004. Perez in 2007 had the ERA+ to be in Lowe's vicinity, but 20 UER in fewer innings still puts him behind.
Oliver Perez, 2007: 6.10 IP per start
Oliver Perez, 2008: 5.70 per start
Oliver Perez, 2008 after June 2: 6.09 IP per start (note how similar in every way Perez was after June 2 to all of 2007)
Now, the absolutely reliable Derek Lowe
2007: 6.19 IP per start
2008: 6.20 IP per start
In other words, it's a very good trade for the Mets. But let's not hand them the division crown yet.
Heilman was swapped out for Putz. Joe Smith was swapped out for Sean Green. Green and Smith are similar, but Putz is much better than Heilman.
In other words, Perez has, for the vast majority of the past two years, been about at Derek Lowe's age 34-35 level of innings per start at age 25-26. So when figuring out who is likely to be more reliable moving forward, I think it's reasonable, given how close they were, to bet on the age 27-30 pitcher over the age 36-39 pitcher.
Maybe this is just perception, but I think the huge improvement for the Mets bullpen is indicative in this statement. Imagine making this statement back in September.
Joe Smith faced 77% RHBs last year. Green only faced 56%.
Green limited them to a .233/.298/.285
Smith limited them to a .192/.286/.302
Green was also better than Smith against lefties (827 OPS v 903 OPS)
If you swapped their usage patterns you would also swap their ERAs. They pitched about the same number of games. But Joe Smith was used properly as a ROOGY, and thus pitched fewer innings and had a lower ERA. Green was used improperly.
Smith faced a lefty in 49% of his outings. Green faced a lefty in 88% of his
In essence, the entirety of Green's 16 inning edge came against lefties. If you brought Joe Smith out for an extra 16 innings exclusively against lefties, his ERA would fly north of 4.50 in a hurry.
Both teams (Phils and Mets) have to take care of their rotation issues and Florida and Atlanta are going to be pretty good this year. Trust me, most people here don't think anything should be handed to the Mets.
Btw, O'Day tore his labrum so nothing at all should be expected of him. Rocky Cherry has a cool name at least.
That's for sure. Except I have pretty strong doubts the Fish are going to be any good, and I want to see first if the Braves are successful in trying to build the top of their rotation with a Burnett or Lowe signing, before I put them into the race. Let's not forget the Braves finished 20 games behind the Phillies, 17 games behind the Mets, and 13 games behind Florida. It is very tough to make up that much ground on that many teams in one off-season . . . and to date, they have gotten worse (no Teixeira), not better. But the Mets must add a reliable starter before anyone can consider them even a co-favorite with the Phillies -- forget a lock.
I just saw Gammons say he thinks when all is said and done, it will actually come down to the Mets and Braves on Derek Lowe. His theory was that the Yankees will sign Burnett and Pettitte will come back, so that will take them out of the running, and that the Red Sox aren't that serious about adding a top-shelf starter. If that's right, then Omar biding his time on the starting pitching market may -- may -- prove as smart an approach as it did in moving on a closer.
Over the last 2 years, Perez has averaged 5.8 IP/start. Lowe has averaged about 6.21.
Thats like an out per start; thats a pretty big deal. I know you like to just use Perez's numbers post June 2, and those look good, but part of the reason people prefer Lowe to Perez is because with Lowe you don't need to throw out any part of his record; he is a lot more reliable than Perez. In September, he only averaged about 5.5 IP per start.
Well, it's interesting. I think a couple of things are at work here. For one thing, when I see a young pitcher putting together long stretches of performance that seems to indicate improvement, I view it differently than if a veteran does so. I also look at Perez as somewhat behind in the development curve because of the way the Pirates screwed him up for two years- he's more in line with the expected development of 24-25 year old.
And the other part I don't get is assuming you'll get a similar performance from Lowe 36-39 as you did 32-35. This is not a small detail. I think, given his 2008, he's a pretty good bet in 2009. But with a relatively low K-rate, he has very little room to decline. It's hard to imagine he'll be able to compensate with a lower walk rate. I just don't see it as a great move. Lowe only looks good to me compared to A.J. Burnett, who will be this offseason's Darren Dreifort.
Why? They have a really talented rotation and a good offense. Their defense is bad and their bullpen is questionable (then again, who knows anything about bullpens) but they'll be good next year.
But this is based on ten starts in the past two years.
I think Perez at this point suffers for his 2004 success. Because of that great year at a young age, he's inconsistent. Without it, he's a young lefty who seems to be putting it together.
Also, the faux-hawk doesn't help perceptions.
There isn't a huge difference. Green has a career 682 OPS allowed to righties. Smith has a 643. Against lefties it is 881 for Smith, and 830 for Green.
Green is somewhat worse against righties but equally somewhat better against lefties. He is better suited to pitch full innings, and not as effective as a ROOGY. But the point remains: from their component statistics they appear to be pitchers of more or less equivalent ability. Their ERAs differ because Smith is handled with kid gloves and Green is not.
Career:
Green:
vs RHB: .272/.329/.352
vs LHB: .289/.408/.402
Smith:
vs RHB: .223/.317/.326
vs LHB: .309/.427/.454
I'd have to go with preserved Fish, when/if used the same way Smith was (3 PAs vs RH : 1 PA vs LHB), Green should have approximately the same value- an opp line of .276/.348/.362 versus Smith's .243/.345/.356 (and Smith did that in a slightly lower offensive context )
Green for Smith should be a push
What is? Not sure I follow...
I guess; or maybe without that 2004 season he doesn't get as many chances as he has.
Without his 04 season, he has 126 IP in 03 with a 73 ERA+, 103 IP in 05 with a 72 ERA+, and 112 IP with a 67 ERA+.
Without his 2004, the best season of his career is probably 177 above average innings. And he's coming off a below average season. Without his 2004 season I don't think he is looking at the kind of contract he's gonna get.
Edit-I wasn't totally fair to him.
But this is based on ten starts in the past two years.
What is? Not sure I follow...
It appeared he was putting it together on the strength of a 3.56 ERA, reasonable walk rate, and K rate of 9 per 9 IP on 2007. After his first ten starts in 2008? 3.56 ERA, reasonable walk rate, K rate of 9 per 9 IP.
Without his 04 season, he has 126 IP in 03 with a 73 ERA+, 103 IP in 05 with a 72 ERA+, and 112 IP with a 67 ERA+.
Exactly. He's talented, but no success... then comes 07 and 08.
Without his 2004, the best season of his career is probably 177 league average innings. And he's coming off a below average season.
This is pretty clearly false. 177 IP of 120 ERA+ isn't league average. And 194 of 100 ERA+ ERA isn't below league average.
Without his 2004 season I don't think he is looking at the kind of contract he's gonna get.
I don't know-Dempster got 4/52. Granted, his '08 is better than any non-'04 Perez season. But it's one year, and Dempster is more than four years older.
Luckily he wears a hat on the field, so most people are unaware.
By comparison, every time I see Amare Stoudamire on TV I want to yell at him "Oh, come on, you can't be serious".
My wife was criticizing Stoudamire's hair choice during last night's game.
The Ben Broussard deal is a good example:
http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mariners/2007/12/ben_broussard_traded_to_texas.html
Right. It appeared he was putting it together under Peterson until he sucked for the first two months of this year. Then Warthen came in, and it looks like he is putting it together. I am saying I don't think he is any less likely to implode for a few months in 08.
What about the unearned runs? (And I edited it; he was likely above average in 07.) This year he allowed 4.63 runs per 9 innings. The average NL starter allowed 4.76 runs per 9. Considering he pitched in Shea, I don't see that as much of a difference. (for what it is worth, the NL league average ERA was 4.30, and on bbref the park adjusted league ERA used to get Ollies ERA+ is 4.21, so I think this is pretty fair to say.)
In 07 he allowed 4.57 runs per 9, and the average was 4.99. So he was solidly above average that year; like I said that wasn't fair.
But he's given up a high % of unearned runs the last 2 years, so just looking at his ERA+ is misleading. 15% of the runs he has allowed have been unearned the last two years, NL average is about half that.
I think its kind of hard to compare Dempster because he was in the pen for so long. So I don't know. Without the 04 season, I don't see how Perez is any better than Garland, and I think Garland isn't going to get as much money as Perez.
Without the 04 season, I think Perez is less desirable because teams wouldn't know he is capable of putting together a season like that.
I totally understand. It comes down to how you view 07-08. I see a pitcher who has ten starts out of line with his overall performance, and given that he was 25-26 with development issues discussed before, it seems like he's a good bet to be the pitcher outside of those ten starts or better as he enters his late twenties. Truth is, he was lwague average or better each of the past two years even with those ten starts- so it isn't like there's a very good chance he's a garbage pitcher, in my opinion.
This year he allowed 4.63 runs per 9 innings. The average NL starter allowed 4.76 runs per 9. Considering he pitched in Shea, I don't see that as much of a difference. (for what it is worth, the NL league average ERA was 4.30, and on bbref the park adjusted league ERA used to get Ollies ERA+ is 4.21, so I think this is pretty fair to say.)
How does this prove that he was BELOW average in 2008?
Yeah, I guess you're right. He was essentially average in 08. I didn't give him enough credit.
That being said, if he hit the market without the 2004 season, I think he is closer to Jon Garland than Derek Lowe in terms of the contract he gets.
I certainly believe his 2004 makes him more valuable. However... so much of the free agent valuing seem to be based around:
1. The narrative of the player
2. The demand for the player
I think the narrative around Perez as too inconsistent is based in large part on the fall from 2004-2006. Otherwise, he'd be a young lefty with great stuff who appeared to "find it" in 2007, and after a rough start in 2008, was exactly as good in 2008.
Obviously, we'll never know. But I'd bet that guy would be a pitcher teams were drooling over.
I see it as a huge upgrade. They get a pitcher with a higher ceiling, higher strikeout rate and better overall career numbers. Yes he was injured the first half of 2008, but he showed himself healthy in the second half. Putz will be unhappy that he isn't the closer, but Heilman was unhappy that he wasn't a starer.
Green vs Smith is a push (with Smith having a slight edge). Chavez vs Reed is a push (Chavez is better defender and Reed is a better hitter). And 3 minor leaguers who might add up to a MLB bench player and two guys from A ball that are interesting, but not anywhere close to being actual prospects.
Basically Dial seems to be comparing them in an ideal world where the Mets manager can mix and match and Mr. Roogy never sees a LHB. Yes if you cold actually do that, then Smith is better. But if the Mets Roogy is going to continue to see LHB's 1/4 of the time- then Green IS AS GOOD AS SMITH, not that Dial would ever conceed that.
Oooh don't let you know who hear that....
If Kevin conceded in a hypothetical fashion I'd take it as a concession... but you are [mostly] rational...
Um, it's not like the Mets can't still get a LF, or that these trades / acquisitions prevent them from doing so. If we were in mid-February, I can see getting all twisted about this, but in early December?
Oooh don't let you know who hear that....
That's OK. When Daniel Murphy is winning games left and right as the Mets left fielder in 2009, I'll only occasionally let Chris remember he kept saying this off-season the Mets had "no LF."
And by "occasionally," I mean only ever other inning of every other game chatter. ;-)
Well, we just gave away 5 of the potential trade bait.
There are plenty of solutions to the other issues, of that I'm pretty confident. It certainly looks like a FA signing (perhaps Ollie) is going to be the way the rotation is filled out. From all indications, Omar is talking about dealing Schneider, so he seems to view him as trade bait. My questions are more along the lines of wanting to know what Omar thinks the holes are, not wondering if they have what it takes to fill them.
All indications are that's a no-go. His AFL season was cut short, so he didn't get to play as many games there as they wanted to get him experience, and he's not playing winter ball to get him even more. I'd be awfully nervous about playing a kid at a middle IF position with almost no minor league experience, and potentially hurting both the team and his own development. If he'd gotten all those games, and then a full spring training, maybe . . . But not as things stand. It's a high-reward gamble, no doubt. But too high risk for my blood.
See, that's my mantra this off-season. I want more reliable, stable, low-risk moves. Make Murphy the LF and don't take chances.
This is crazy to me because there is no question I woiuld want Putz closing out playoff games, not Frankie Rodriguez. I'm not a Mets fan, and I see a lot of Mets fans here excited about having a good bullpen again, but this situation just doesn't make a lot of sense to me. There is also a small chance the Mets will have Billy Wagner, KRod, and Putz all on the DL at some point in the next year or two...
Probably.
Edit- I guess not according to 173.
I've seen many other people talking about this as well. The biggest reason why K-Rod is the closer and Putz is the setup guy is that K-Rod was the free agent and wouldn't have signed to be a setup guy.
Ok. So that means Slappy at second? Ugh.
Yeah, I know Wagner very likely isn't going to be the same guy when he's literally just coming off major elbow surgery, but wow, would that be neat.
It's likely going to result in the better pitcher pitching the higher leverage innings, anyway.
Sam has always underestimated Carp. He doesn't want to hear it, but the gap between Carp and Murphy isn't that large... they're very similar players.
To someone with juice:
http://www.silive.com/sports/index.ssf/2008/12/mets_are_choke_artists_phillie.html
Oh no he didn't!
Oh yes he did!
Being played every 20 minutes, literally, on WFAN in NY
Well, it would have to be in 2009. The Mets do hold an option on Wagner for 2010, but I think we can safely assume that that puppy won't be exercised with him coming off a year+ of inaction.
On the other hand, having them all active at the same time would be really cool!
Equally unlikely. Again assuming the Mets aren't going to pay K-Rod $13M, Putz $9M, and Wagner $8M for 2010, the only chance of that would be if Wagner somehow comes back at the very end of '09. That hasn't been 100% ruled out, but it's extremely unlikely. Man, the Mets' could have an awesome pen for the post-season if it did somehow happen, though. Wow.
Sam has always underestimated Carp. He doesn't want to hear it, but the gap between Carp and Murphy isn't that large... they're very similar players.
We'll see, Rasky. This is one of those disagreements on which it is best to simply let time and unfolding performance tell the tale.
He also said that the rumor that the Phillies hung a photo of Jose Reyes on Shane Victorino's locker after he celebrated a little too much after a home run in the NLDS against CC Sabathia of the Brewers is true.
"Hey Shane, this doesn't win the game, there's still a lot of game to play. Why are you trying to be like Jose Reyes? Even though you hit a big home run you don't need to pimp it," he said.
Jose Reyes isn't very well-liked, is he? K-Rod is hardly going to make the Mets are more liked team in that regard.
Rotoworld saying the Mets and Cubs are talking about a Marquis for Schoeneweis deal.
Offensively, maybe. But Murphy is much more athletic and better defensively. Scouting wise, Murphy is reported to have a good plate approach and Carp is reported to be a slow bat who can hit a mistake.
Carp isn't as good as Evans, much less Murphy, which is why Carp was traded.
But it doesn't amount to much defensively. As in, if the athleticism doesn't help you move up on the spectrum, it's not very useful. If Murphy can't stick as an IFer, he's not very instinctive as an OFer. He doesn't have much of an arm. That leaves 1B, just like Carp.
Scouting wise, Murphy is reported to have a good plate approach and Carp is reported to be a slow bat who can hit a mistake.
Carp has really upped that BB rate in the past year. That indicates a good batting eye at the very least.
Every scout I've read (and I do mean every scout) has said that Carp has a slow bat and can be beaten by an inside fastball. His batting eye is much improved, but that doesn't mean much if he can't hit an inside fastball over the plate.
Oh, come on. There's no reason whatsoever to write off Murphy as left fielder off of a few games he played after having had almsot no minor league experience. Get him some games out there and there is no reason at all to think (and certanly not to conclude) that he's doomed to be a first baseman . . . and certainly not the bad one that scouts uniformly report Carp to be. This isn't Todd Hundley we're talking about. There is every reason to believe that Murphy, who was a good minor league 3B, can be at least an adequate major league LFer with enough experience.
And after 2 titles in 532 years they have earned the right to talk.
Rotoworld saying the Mets and Cubs are talking about a Marquis for Schoeneweis deal.
Go for it Omar! Hell, even if they don't want to do it just send them Show anyway!
Ive heard he wasn't very good at 3b...
Yeah that's a good point. I hadn't really thought of it that way.
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