Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Rosenthal: Questions about Jays’ rotation won’t be answered right away

As recently as late January, Anthopoulos referenced four starters who were still free agents — Santana, Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo and A.J. Burnett — and said that they could “all be a significant improvement” for the Jays.

Well, Santana is the only one still on the market, and he could go to the Mariners, the injury-depleted Rangers or some other club. At that point, the Jays seemingly would have little choice but to rely on returning starters R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow, J.A. Happ and one of the youngsters.

In fairness, the Jays’ outlook is brighter than it was early in the offseason, when they were not sure Morrow would recover as well as he has from an entrapped radial nerve in his right forearm. Drabek and Hutchison have continued to progress from their respective Tommy John surgeries in 2012. Both Hutchison and Stroman, the game’s No. 55 prospect according to Baseball America, excelled in the Arizona Fall League.

Still, this is a team that won only 74 games last season, a team that finished next-to-last in the American League with a 4.81 rotation ERA, a team that figured to make a bigger acquisition than free-agent catcher Dioner Navarro this winter.

Thanks to Butch.

Repoz Posted: February 23, 2014 at 12:48 PM | 49 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: blue jays

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Matthew E Posted: February 23, 2014 at 01:15 PM (#4661034)
So let's say Anthopoulos is right and the best thing to do about the rotation is nothing. Is that also the best thing to do about second base? About a platoon partner for Adam Lind?

In my experience, when you don't change a team, it gets worse, not better.

Then if you factor in the very real possibility that the Jays are due for some bad luck after a couple of years of ticking along at a very consistent level of performance...

I don't think it's going to be pretty.
   2.   Posted: February 23, 2014 at 01:23 PM (#4661039)
Agreed. I don't think Jose Bautista 2011 is coming back and I think Encarnacion has probably had his best two seasons. I really hate this team right now.
   3. Matthew E Posted: February 23, 2014 at 01:33 PM (#4661043)
Well, the worst thing is that there's really not a lot that can be done to fix it. Free agents don't tend to want to come to Toronto, and the money/years may not be there for them in the first place. The Buehrle and Reyes contracts are going to be clogging up the payroll for a long time. They might be able to make rebuilding-type trades, but not win-now trades, because the farm system is at low ebb. They're okay at drafting as long as you don't expect them to actually sign their picks. They don't do a good job of developing prospects. They can't keep major league players healthy or productive very well. And even if you get rid of everyone in the front office whose fault this is, you're counting on Rogers Communications to replace them, and they've shown that their hiring technique is to look for whoever's hanging around the office when the job comes open and name them to the position before they can get away. Rasmus and Cabrera are free agents after this year, and there's nobody in the system who could reasonably be expected to replace them. If MLB decided to contract this team I would honestly be relieved.
   4. John Northey Posted: February 23, 2014 at 02:16 PM (#4661058)
Wait a minute... Jays are due for some bad luck?????

Lets check that rotation...
Dickey: off a Cy Young year has his worst ERA/ERA+ since 2009
Buehrle: worst ERA+ for him since 2006
Johnson: worst ERA+ for him since 2007, 2nd lowest inning total since 2008
Morrow: worst ERA+ ever by 17 points, lowest IP total ever (including relief years)
Romero: 11.05 ERA, removed from 40 man roster...twice
Happ: hit in head by baseball while pitching

I mean, how much worse could it possibly have got? The 5 expected to be in the rotation all had their worst ERA+ since 2009 with 3 of them either injured or ineffective thus getting under 150 innings TOTAL from the 3 of them.

Now mix in no player being in more than 143 games (Lind, a guy who should be a platoon player) and just 3 with 120+ games and you have injury issues up the wazoo. You have Izturis 10 points lower than his worst OPS+ since his Montreal days, JP Arencibia 30 OPS+ points lower than he did the past 2 years, and more I'm sure. Heck, they even underplayed their Pythagorean W-L by 3 games.

The Jays of 2013 were anything but lucky. They were about as far away from lucky as you get. The pluses were the bullpen (Gibbons is very good at putting the right guy in the right situation it seems), Rasmus (when healthy), Lind (vs RHP), and Encarnacion. That's about it.
   5. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: February 23, 2014 at 02:21 PM (#4661061)
The Blue Jays look like a strong regression to the mean candidate to me. Granted that means they're likely to win 80-ish games rather than 90-ish. I don't think there was a free agent solution, short of the too-expensive Cano, that makes them a likely playoff contender.
   6. Greg K Posted: February 23, 2014 at 02:32 PM (#4661066)
I think the Jays entered this off-season in a very tough spot - too much invested to go into firesale mode (Buehrle and Reyes mostly likely unmoveable anyway), farm system already used to go for it last winter, maybe some middling FA pitchers could help, but apparently outbid on the ones they had any interest in. I'm not sure if much positive could have been done on those fronts.

But not picking up someone who at least has a chance of being terrible at 2B is a bit disappointing. I suppose I can't entirely blame AA, it sounds like he would have landed Kinsler had Ian not nixed that one.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 23, 2014 at 02:46 PM (#4661069)
I agree with #5, I think the Jays were extraordinarily unlucky. They could have used an upgrade at 2B, but this was a terrible FA market for 2B, and I'm not sure who was out there for trade if Kinsler was going to block a trade to Toronto. They should probably get Santana at this point, but I don't think they needed to do drastic moves this winter, they had a decent team last year that was just killed by injuries.
   8.   Posted: February 23, 2014 at 02:58 PM (#4661079)

Dickey: off a Cy Young year has his worst ERA/ERA+ since 2009
Buehrle: worst ERA+ for him since 2006
Johnson: worst ERA+ for him since 2007, 2nd lowest inning total since 2008
Morrow: worst ERA+ ever by 17 points, lowest IP total ever (including relief years)
Romero: 11.05 ERA, removed from 40 man roster...twice
Happ: hit in head by baseball while pitching


I don't know. Buehrle threw 200+ innings for a 13th consecutive season, an unbelievable accomplishment in today's era. His performance was within range of what you might expect for a pitcher his age moving to the AL. Dickey too wasn't terrible, and there was a pretty big risk with his age (I don't care that he's a knuckleballer,) and the fact that he'd only had one success with one organization in his career. I don't consider his season all that unlucky. Johnson and Morrow, we knew what the injury risk was coming into it. Nobody expected Johnson to be so bad while healthy, sure, but his season wasn't some huge shock. Ricky Romero Ankieled in 2012; that was unlucky, but the org. handled it about as poorly as they could have.

I think they were unlucky in that NONE of those players overperformed expectations, but there was more to it than bad luck...
   9. John Northey Posted: February 23, 2014 at 03:02 PM (#4661082)
For those wondering if the Jays can get to 90 wins and what it would take I put this together at BattersBox.ca
16 more wins are needed. Where can those come from?

1) No player had 5+ WAR last year and the top 2 were Rasmus and Bautista with 118 games played each followed by EE at 142 games (all 4 WAR guys). Reyes was at 2.5 in just 93 games, Lawrie 2.3 in 107. So 5 core hitters who missed between 20 and 69 games last year with all but one missing 40+ games. That is a big, big factor. Put all of them up to 140 games other than EE of course who was already there and you add 3.6 wins (no factor for what better health might mean beyond playing time)

2) Goins vs Izturis/Bonifacio - Lets put Goins at 1.4 WAR (what he had in 34 games last year that was driven by insane defensive figures that won't happen again so lets say he does that over 140-150 games instead). Izturis/Bonifacio last year combined for -0.9 WAR so there is another +0.9 (praying Izturis is released or at least replacement level)

3) Cabrera was -0.1 WAR last year...lets pencil him in at 0.5 this year (0.6 gained) assuming his back is better but not PED better.

4) JPA was 0.1 WAR last year, replaced by Navarro who had 2 WAR last year. Lets cut that from a 1.9 WAR spread to just 1 WAR to be safe.

So on offense/defense we can easily see 6 more wins without asking for anything crazy to happen (just one DL stint each for Lawrie & Bautista each might be stretching it though).

For pitchers the best we saw was a 2.1 WAR from Buehrle and 2.0 from Dickey. We also saw Rogers & Redmond combine for 1.0 WAR.

1) Josh Johnson is gone and so is his -1.5 WAR. Lets assume the Jays can find replacement level to replace him

2) Morrow was at -0.6 which is crazy low for his talent level. Lets pencil him in for 1.0 (not a big leap)

3) Other disasters were Wang (-0.6), Ortiz (-0.2), Romero (-0.3), Laffey (-0.1) and Nolin (-0.3) lets assume 0 WAR replacements (1.5 WAR improvement)

4) Give Dickey/Buehrle 5 WAR combined instead of 4.1 combined this year - a 0.9 improvement and given both had very low ERA+'s vs the past 3 years that isn't a crazy request

5) Assume Happ/Rogers/Redmond combined do as well this year (1.1 WAR total) which isn't expecting much from them.

That gives an improvement of 5 1/2 WAR from the starters. Lets just assume the pen works out the same in the end (relievers are extremely hard to estimate).

That means a total, with no 'wow' improvements of 11 1/2 wins. That just requires a small amount of health and for the new starters to be replacement level and a slight improvement for Dickey/Buehrle that is still less than they have done previously. That gets the Jays up to 85/86 wins.

Now, add in luck based improvements (3 wins below pythagorean win total last year, lets assume they just break even on that in 2014) and you get 88-89 wins. So, what happens if anyone steps up - be it Goins figuring out which end of the bat to use, Lawrie playing better, Cabrera being a solid LFer, or a kid coming on in the rotation? Then you get 90+ wins. Get some of the luck based wins that we've seen other clubs get, even just a couple more wins instead and you get 90+ as well.

It really wouldn't take much for the Jays to get to the 90 mark which seems odd for a team that won just 74 the previous season but I don't see anything above which is asking for something that would be in the upper 25% of what one would ask of any of these players.
   10. JLAC is engulfed in a harmless burst of flame Posted: February 23, 2014 at 03:08 PM (#4661086)
Chance of getting what, 14 players in the top of 25% of their expected distribution is only 268 million to one, so that does seem about right.
   11. Greg K Posted: February 23, 2014 at 03:32 PM (#4661095)
Lets put Goins at 1.4 WAR

It's possible I'm missing something because I was on the road for most of September so I didn't see a great deal of Goins, but my optimistic read of Goins is that he provides 0.0 WAR if he plays 140 games.

3) Other disasters were Wang (-0.6), Ortiz (-0.2), Romero (-0.3), Laffey (-0.1) and Nolin (-0.3) lets assume 0 WAR replacements (1.5 WAR improvement)

Who are the replacement pitchers taking up the slack when Morrow inevitably, and Dickey/Buehrle probably go down with injuries? I'm not especially confident that Drabek, Deck Maguire, Jenkins, Nolin, Redmond, Hendricks, Romero, or whoever will be replacement level. And Drabek is currently slated as the #5 starter on mlbdepthcharts at the moment. Esmil Rogers I think can at least be pencilled in for replacement level. I do have some hope that Drew Hutchison has a chance to be a pretty useful pitcher this year.

Toronto seems like a team that really needs pitching depth. You've got Dickey and Buehrle, guys with recent track records of work-horse like innings, but quite old. Brandon Morrow who could make anywhere from 2 to 20 starts, Happ, who sees Morrow's injury proness and raises him a helping of not being very good when he is healthy. I just worry that the AAA depth guys are going to have to make a lot of starts, and Hutchison (possibly) is the one only that doesn't scare the bejesus out of me.

EDIT: Not to sound too down on the Jays...my neutral state is cautious pessimism. I'm generally down on the Jays chances in the spring, but I'm also usually the last one to give up the last shred of hope that they can make the playoffs. I do think they have a chance if everything falls right...it just doesn't seem like a particularly good chance at the moment.


   12. Greg K Posted: February 23, 2014 at 03:39 PM (#4661097)
On the other hand I can see a bit more out of the core group, but not much more. I think we've seen the best of Bautista and Encarnacion. At this point I think the best you can hope for from either of them is slightly less than what they've provided in 2012-2013. I've been wrong twice now expecting the demise of Bautista so I won't go that far, but I'd very surprised if him and Encarnacion combined for more value than they had last season, especially when you factor in Bautista's defensive value is going to start eroding.

I suspect we've just seen Rasmus' career year (if he hadn't already had his career year in St. Louis). It's possible his 127 OPS+ is his new level of talent, but I'm expecting him to settle into a few years between 105 and 115.

I think there is room to hope for growth from Lawrie, but that's by no means a given.

A somewhat healthy Reyes (135 games?) at somewhere near 100 OPS+ would be a big help.
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 23, 2014 at 03:45 PM (#4661101)
FWIW, CAIRO back in December projected the Jays for 84 wins. I think that's probably about right with a chance they could win 88 or so.
   14. snowles Posted: February 23, 2014 at 03:45 PM (#4661103)
@9, do you account for possible losses in production, most notably from Rasmus, EE and JB (Lind as well)? Or is 2013 expected level moving forward.

As a Jays fan, I hate that we have to have such as a big caveat as "well, if everyone is healthy and performs to expectations" routine, especially because that rarely, if ever, happens.

As much as I came to loathe JPR by the end, are we really in that much better shape with AA? The farm system is pretty much bottom heavy, positional prospects are few and far between, there's a bunch of large poor value contracts on the books and we're squandering away our of nowhere offense from EE and JB. Injuries, especially in pitching, happen at far too alarming a rate, and drafted prospects fail to live up to the hype at an almost complete certainty (did anyone think by now none of the Roy Halladay trade pieces would at least contribute positive WAR by now?).

Honestly, it feels like if everything breaks right, we'll win 85-87 games - too poor for a playoff spot, too good for a high and protected draft position. Too much money invested in too little return on player. Sounds like exactly what got Gord Ash fired; at least we had some high-impact pieces coming through the pipeline then.
   15. Greg K Posted: February 23, 2014 at 03:48 PM (#4661106)
Yeah, this does sound weird as I just spent several paragraphs fretting over them, but I see the Jays around there...maybe 82 wins.

They do seem volatile though, if Dickey goes down, or Buehrle's ball-in-play fetish finally catches up with him, it could be a disaster.
   16. Greg K Posted: February 23, 2014 at 03:57 PM (#4661113)
As much as I came to loathe JPR by the end, are we really in that much better shape with AA?

Maybe I give him too much of the benefit of the doubt, but I still don't think the big gamble was necessarily a mark against AA. It obviously didn't work, and it's put the Jays in a very troubling position for the future. But at the time we knew that was the gamble. AA gambled the future to create a window now. Was it a bad gamble? If Reyes doesn't forget how to slide and blow up his ankle, if Johnson is healthy, if Dickey figured it out sooner...who knows.

The question now is, was AA's decision making flawed, or did he take a reasonably calculated risk that just failed? The Jays are in a pretty terrible spot, but is that because AA is a bad GM, or is that the price of going for the home run? (Which I would hope every good GM would do if the opportunity is there) I don't think I really know at this point. From a theoretically stand-point it is possible that AA's decision is the reason the Jays future is so bleak, while at the same time he is the right guy to fix the team in the long run. Though I tend to doubt he'll be given that chance. No matter who's at the helm I think the next 3-4 years are going to be painful, and the big 2012-2013 winter push is going to make AA an attractive firing target.
   17. BDC Posted: February 23, 2014 at 04:08 PM (#4661115)
Hey, the Jays' starting catcher from last year is now the starter in Texas, after Geovany Soto had surgery. That's gotta transfer a few wins Toronto's way.
   18. Greg K Posted: February 23, 2014 at 04:10 PM (#4661116)
Hey, the Jays' starting catcher from last year is now the starter in Texas, after Geovany Soto had surgery. That's gotta transfer a few wins Toronto's way.

You'll be amazed how bad a catcher can be while still hitting 20HR!
   19. snowles Posted: February 23, 2014 at 04:12 PM (#4661117)
@16 I too don't hate the chance he took, it just seemed like he was on a pretty well defined path and did pretty much a 180 on it when the opportunity presented itself. It's so far looking exactly like the tenure of JPR (come in, strip to the core with value in mind, add a bunch of big pieces, then ???), though I have a lot more faith in AA for some reason (maybe it's cause he's Canadian. Though recent actions have made me question the direction.

I had a big long thing about the Jays bench, but my son grabbed my mouse and made mincemeat out of it. Long story short, this team has one of the worst benches I've ever seen. A 3-man bench consisting of Izturis, Kratz or Thole, and Gose or Sierra, who combined for a 0.2 WAR last year with an 8-man pen does not inspire any sort of confidence. Rasmus has no platoon partner, and Lind's platoon partner is the 4th OF (who was a butcher in the field last year). So either the Jays are gonna lose the DH spot if an OF gets hurt or Bautista or the Melkman could be running around CF. Or we have a left-handed platoon mate to 2 left handed players and JB. All to save fringe bullpen pitchers without options. Kawasaki was re-signed, with no where to play (both IF bat left anyways, and his defence at 3B was pretty uninspiring). I think losing Davis and ReRosa are going to hurt this team more than failing to sign a SP.

It's madness.
   20. Matthew E Posted: February 23, 2014 at 04:14 PM (#4661118)
Wait a minute... Jays are due for some bad luck?????
Look, I was willing to believe that 2012 was just bad luck, with a random storm of injuries and poor performances out of nowhere, and that the Jays were really better than that. (Not a lot better, but better.) But after it happened again in 2013, I was forced to consider the possibility that they really are this bad, and the injuries and poor performances and stuff are just the new normal that we now have to get used to.

If that's true, what we've just had is not two unlucky years, but two average years. And it's not at all unrealistic to assume that after two normal years, your luck is going to catch up to you and bite you hard on the back of the knee. It's only a hunch to guess that that's what's going to happen, but I do have that hunch, and I do so guess. If the Jays win fewer than 63 games this year I'll be disappointed. If they win 70 to 80 I'll be very pleasantly surprised. If they win 81 or more, well... well, they're not going to do that. Probably not for years.
   21. snowles Posted: February 23, 2014 at 04:20 PM (#4661120)
If you're a Rangers fan, don't worry, you'll #getusedtoit .
   22. Greg K Posted: February 23, 2014 at 04:24 PM (#4661122)
Yeah the bench is a bit of a disaster. It's odd that they haven't even brought in a bunch of old right-handed hitters on a NRI (like Kevin Mench back in the day!) to at least give themselves at least some kind of shot in hell of keeping Lind away from lefties. Is Austin Kearns still playing baseball?

I haven't paid much attention to roster construction yet, have they confirmed they're going with a 8 man bullpen? That seems loony to me.

I probably over-value flexibility, so I don't worry too much about an apparent change in direction. Building for the future is one way of using a fine farm system, but so is cashing it in for star talent. I really have no idea how AA's mind works, but I like to think that his path was "assemble assets and exploit the flexibility that gives me".
   23. Matthew E Posted: February 23, 2014 at 04:31 PM (#4661123)
I haven't paid much attention to roster construction yet, have they confirmed they're going with a 8 man bullpen?
Anthopoulos has said that they probably will for the first couple of weeks just because they have so many guys who are out of options. Maybe, after the first couple of weeks, they can go with a 9-man pen!
   24.   Posted: February 23, 2014 at 04:34 PM (#4661124)
How long did the jays go last year where Henry Blanco was the only bench player and they couldn't use him because he's needed for emergencies. If you don't have 15 relievers you aren't trying hard enough!
   25. snowles Posted: February 23, 2014 at 04:40 PM (#4661125)
@22.

Not a certainty, but as constructed, and with the spring in swing, it`s pretty barfworth to even be considering.

I was under the impression they signed Brent Morel (yay?) to back up 3B and 2B and act as a platoon mate, but then the DFAd him to make room for superstar in waiting Liam Hendricks. The 4th OF pretty much has to be Sierra since he's out of options and Gose is still, I suppose a prospect, but he was an absolute butcher in the field and the team has noone capable of backing up CF unless they think the guy who had a tumour pulled from his spine this winter is up to the task. In which case, whatever one of Sierra or Adam Lind becomes the other OF.

I suppose it could be Kevin Pillar, but he`s proven absolutely nothing with the bat (.680 OPS vs LHP) and still does nothing to spell one of Rasmus or Lind against LHP.

Yeah, a 3-man bench with one of those players the platoon mate for the DH? Good grief.
   26. BDC Posted: February 23, 2014 at 05:48 PM (#4661132)
I can understand why Arencibia might quit Twitter in a huff. What I don't understand is how he got 145,000 followers to start with.
   27. Greg K Posted: February 23, 2014 at 05:55 PM (#4661133)
I can understand why Arencibia might quit Twitter in a huff. What I don't understand is how he got 145,000 followers to start with.

He hits a lot of home runs, was a fresh faced rookie (which fans always seem to like), and at one point seemed to form a comedy troupe with Brett Lawrie and one of the other young Jays (I can't recall which at the moment), which served to make him one of the more popular players on the team.

It was remarkably quick actually, the shift from casual Jays fans thinking Arencibia was better than he was to abject derision. Though I suppose a 59 OPS+ will do that to you.
   28. Matthew E Posted: February 23, 2014 at 07:07 PM (#4661153)
one of the other young Jays (I can't recall which at the moment)
I think you're thinking of Romero.

It's too bad about Arencibia. I didn't think he was better than he was, but I hoped he would become better. I wish him well in Texas.
   29. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: February 23, 2014 at 07:15 PM (#4661156)
Wow, the Jays fans in here are overly pessimistic. This team probably wins 80 games in a tough AL East, but it is far from inconceivable that they could get into the playoffs.
   30. Matthew E Posted: February 23, 2014 at 07:28 PM (#4661161)
Watch and see.

I mean, I admit I'm about as pessimistic as it's possible to be (I honestly don't expect the Jays to finish above .500 more than a handful of times during the remainder of my life), but look at this freaking ballclub: why on earth should I be anything else?
   31. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: February 23, 2014 at 07:37 PM (#4661163)
I think you're too close to it Matthew. There's a bunch of talent there. They need things to go right to get there, but that's true of roughly 25 teams every year.
   32. Matthew E Posted: February 23, 2014 at 07:42 PM (#4661167)
There's been a bunch of talent there since 1994, and they haven't been able to do anything with it, and things seem to be getting worse.
   33. Greg K Posted: February 23, 2014 at 07:43 PM (#4661169)
I mean, I admit I'm about as pessimistic as it's possible to be (I honestly don't expect the Jays to finish above .500 more than a handful of times during the remainder of my life), but look at this freaking ballclub: why on earth should I be anything else?

I guess this depends on how much longer you plan on living. Projecting a baseball team more than three or four years into the future seems like a fool's errand to me.
   34. Matthew E Posted: February 23, 2014 at 07:57 PM (#4661172)
I was figuring I'd live about forty more years or so. And, yeah, I'm aware that that's well beyond any sane projection thresholds, but: what exactly could cause things to start going right with this team? What circumstances are going to change? I mean, if circumstances change, I'll reevaluate. I think it's a pretty stable situation, though.
   35. Greg K Posted: February 23, 2014 at 08:02 PM (#4661174)
I was figuring I'd live about forty more years or so. And, yeah, I'm aware that that's well beyond any sane projection thresholds, but: what exactly could cause things to start going right with this team? What circumstances are going to change? I mean, if circumstances change, I'll reevaluate. I think it's a pretty stable situation, though.

I just mean since 1994 they've finished .500 or better almost half the time (9 out of 20 seasons..two more with 80 wins). If you don't expect anything to change then I'd figure you'd be expecting win totals varying from 75 to 85 wins until the end of time.
   36. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 23, 2014 at 08:21 PM (#4661177)
Until 2007 the Blue JAys and Phillies were in a similar situation. You'd look at all teams' W-L records over the past ten or more years, and those two teams were way, way ahead of every other team that had made no playoff appearances in that time. Because of the charmed existences of the Yankees and Braves, and to a lesser extent the Mets, Red Sox and Orioles.

Then in 2007 the Phillies got to the playoffs, and were swept by the Rocktobers. How could they squander such a chance? Wait, how were they there at all, with a rotation consisting of Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer and Adam Eaton?

But, the Braves and Mets fell apart for various reasons.

The Red Sox fell apart in 2012 (for a surprising short time), the Orioles continue to have Mets-like financial strategies, the star of the Yankees infield is Kelly Johnson and the Rays seem to have finally run out of prospects, so you never know.

Six years from now, you could find yourself with two pennants, a World Series title, a cult-hero from New Brunswick, and a $125 million contract for Adam Lind!
   37. Matthew E Posted: February 23, 2014 at 08:38 PM (#4661179)
If you don't expect anything to change then I'd figure you'd be expecting win totals varying from 75 to 85 wins until the end of time.
It has changed. It's gotten worse.

Anyway: we'll see.
   38. Paul D(uda) Posted: February 23, 2014 at 09:11 PM (#4661188)
I fully expect the Jays to win 75 games this year, but I'm still excited to watch Jose Reyes play SS, the best stories in baseball play 1b and RF, see more of the knuckleball and hope for Stroman and Lawrie to be great.
   39. Matthew E Posted: February 23, 2014 at 09:17 PM (#4661194)
I fully expect the Jays to win 75 games this year, but I'm still excited to watch Jose Reyes play SS, the best stories in baseball play 1b and RF, see more of the knuckleball and hope for Stroman and Lawrie to be great.
Any given day, they can win that game!
   40. bfan Posted: February 23, 2014 at 09:40 PM (#4661204)
this is a team that won only 74 games last season, a team that finished next-to-last in the American League with a 4.81 rotation ERA, a team that figured to make a bigger acquisition than free-agent catcher Dioner Navarro this winter.


So any team that finishes below .500 is expected to make a big FA acquisition; any big market team (Mets; Yankees; LA teams; Chi. teams) are supposed to make big FA acquisitions because they have greedy owners if they don't... Where do we expect enough big FA acquisitions to come from?
   41. Matthew E Posted: February 23, 2014 at 09:46 PM (#4661209)
No, it's not that. But the Jays, after all the moves they made last winter, are clearly in win-now mode. They had the choices of either giving up and holding a fire sale, or doing everything they could to try to get a championship out of their current talented but aging roster. Either of those things would have made sense. They did neither.

In particular, to try to improve the team immediately for the short term, a free agent acquisition would have made sense because the Jays don't have a lot of minor leaguers who would be valuable in trade, and they certainly don't want to trade any of the major league players they were counting on.

But that's the 2013/14 Blue Jays. Not every sub-.500 team is in that situation.
   42. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 23, 2014 at 10:01 PM (#4661212)
The Phillies first attempt at win-now (Jim Thome, David Bell, Kevin Millwood trade) didn't work too well. But it didn't doom them forever.
   43. Matthew E Posted: February 23, 2014 at 10:07 PM (#4661215)
The Phillies first attempt at win-now (Jim Thome, David Bell, Kevin Millwood trade) didn't work too well. But it didn't doom them forever.
What does, or did, the Phillies organization do well?
   44. Greg K Posted: February 23, 2014 at 10:07 PM (#4661216)
The Phillies first attempt at win-now (Jim Thome, David Bell, Kevin Millwood trade) didn't work too well. But it didn't doom them forever.

Yeah Jays took a stab at contending when they added Glaus/BJ Ryan/AJ Burnett and those guys...it didn't work and they had to re-set the clock.

They thought they saw an opportunity and took a stab again in 2013, but failed.

I'm fully confident that after a recovery period they'll take another shot at it 5-7 years in the future. The one thing going for them is that they're clearly willing to spend in the upper third of the league's payrolls to do so. They haven't been successful (recently), but that's no reason to think they'll stop trying, or they won't be successful in the next go around.

If anything, the Jays of the past seven or eight years have been willing to spend when the GM feels they are on the cusp of contending, which didn't seem especially true of the post-World Series, pre-Rogers days.
   45. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 23, 2014 at 10:11 PM (#4661217)
What does, or did, the Phillies organization do well?

It remains possible that the Blue Jays could at some point hire a GM with the amazing abilities of Pat Gillick.
   46. Matthew E Posted: February 23, 2014 at 10:17 PM (#4661220)
It remains possible that the Blue Jays could at some point hire a GM with the amazing abilities of Pat Gillick.
Only if he's currently working in the office beside Alex Anthopoulos's, because whoever's in there is who's gonna get the job if Anthopoulos gets fired. God, I hope it's not Cito Gaston.
   47. BrianBrianson Posted: February 24, 2014 at 06:04 AM (#4661318)
Wow, the Jays fans in here are overly pessimistic.


Are you saying Jays' fans are the only ones who hear "The entire team will be mauled to death by bears in June" and say "Ha! Too optimistic. Try April."?
   48. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 24, 2014 at 07:08 PM (#4661710)
I was under the impression they signed Brent Morel (yay?) to back up 3B and 2B and act as a platoon mate, but then the DFAd him to make room for superstar in waiting Liam Hendricks.


The Pirates just claimed Morel on waivers. I don't really understand that one...
   49. Davo Dozier Posted: February 24, 2014 at 07:22 PM (#4661721)
The Pirates just claimed Morel on waivers. I don't really understand that one...

Eh. Organizational depth. They're pretty thin when it comes to infielders. Barmes and Harrison are solid backups, but after that, the cupboard's pretty bare (as far as guys who could help in 2014--next guy in line if anyone gets injured was like Robert Andino or something).

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
robneyer
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogNewsweek: Can Baseball Get More Interesting to Watch With Big Data?
(16 - 3:18am, Sep 03)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogTrevor Hoffman's Hall of Fame induction seems inevitable
(95 - 2:56am, Sep 03)
Last: bobm

NewsblogGleeman: Twins ask fans which brand of luxury car they are
(21 - 2:32am, Sep 03)
Last: vortex of dissipation

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 9-2-2014
(82 - 2:22am, Sep 03)
Last: Spahn Insane

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - September 2014
(14 - 2:21am, Sep 03)
Last: robinred

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1957 Ballot
(12 - 2:16am, Sep 03)
Last: bjhanke

NewsblogAdam Jones says he was joking about 'airport' comment at social media event
(26 - 2:06am, Sep 03)
Last: Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda.

NewsblogThe indisputable selfishness of Derek Jeter
(40 - 2:05am, Sep 03)
Last: Mom makes botox doctors furious

NewsblogExpanded Rosters Exacerbate Baseball’s Biggest Issue
(34 - 1:13am, Sep 03)
Last: Bhaakon

NewsblogOT: Politics, September, 2014: ESPN honors Daily Worker sports editor Lester Rodney
(324 - 12:45am, Sep 03)
Last: greenback calls it soccer

NewsblogPassan: 10 Degrees: Cole Hamels' trade value might be Phillies' lone bright spot
(7 - 12:23am, Sep 03)
Last: Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play

NewsblogPhoto of the day: Bill Murray, indy league ticket-taker
(128 - 12:21am, Sep 03)
Last: The District Attorney

NewsblogRule change means more players to choose from for postseason roster
(15 - 11:10pm, Sep 02)
Last: Pirate Joe

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1958 Discussion
(2 - 11:00pm, Sep 02)
Last: DL from MN

NewsblogAstros Fire Bo Porter
(62 - 10:50pm, Sep 02)
Last: ReggieThomasLives

Page rendered in 0.6036 seconds
52 querie(s) executed