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Friday, February 10, 2012

Rosenthal: Swapping Figgins for Ichiro at leadoff could revive Mariners’ offense

The truth, though no one dares say it around the Mariners, is that hitting behind Ichiro isn’t easy. Ichiro’s goal is not to get on base, but to get on base with a hit, collect 200 hits a season. He is unpredictable, playing at his own rhythm. And when he starts an inning with a quick at-bat — Ichiro ranked near the bottom in pitches per plate appearance among leadoff men last season — the No. 2 hitter is in a difficult spot.

At that point, a rival hitting coach explained, the No. 2 hitter is almost forced to be patient, or the pitcher will stand a good chance of breezing through the inning. Someone has to work counts, especially in the first inning when pitchers often are at their most vulnerable. And that task shouldn’t fall to the No. 3 hitter.

...The numbers indicate Figgins has lost his way. He is chasing more pitches out of the strike zone than he did with the Angels, and his walk rate declined markedly in each of his first two seasons with the Mariners. Yet, Figgins maintains he still isn’t aggressive enough.

“Being in that spot and understanding that Ichiro is an aggressive player — that’s what makes him great — I need to understand that when he is aggressive, I need to be aggressive, too,” Figgins said. “A lot of times I get behind in the count too much.”

But isn’t patience his game?

“That’s the adjustment I have to understand and make,” Figgins said. “There were spots in 2010 and last year where I got better at it, got back on track because I was being more aggressive. I’m still having my patient tendencies. But at certain times, I have to be more aggressive. Early in the game, I have to be more aggressive.”

Thanks to Butch.

Repoz Posted: February 10, 2012 at 06:46 AM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mariners, projections, sabermetrics

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   1. CraigK Posted: February 10, 2012 at 07:02 AM (#4057815)
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Stick to breaking trades, Ken.
   2. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: February 10, 2012 at 08:54 AM (#4057831)
I guess Figgins is still in the denial stage.
   3. AROM Posted: February 10, 2012 at 09:19 AM (#4057833)
Seems like a big presumption that Figgins will even be in the lineup. At the end of last year Kyle Seager's Silver Bullet Band took his job.
   4. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: February 10, 2012 at 09:48 AM (#4057842)
Precisely. And that's the problem. If something as trivial as the arts can't be cut, then virtually nothing can be. The arts are nice and all, but, again, it's not an essential and there's no reason it can't be exclusively privately funded.


This seems like little more than re-arranging deck chairs. Ichiro saw 3.51 pitches per PA last year. Figgins saw 4.09. Figgins career best is 4.21. So, switching them hypothetically gains what, .2 pitches per PA max? 1 every 5 games?
   5. JJ1986 Posted: February 10, 2012 at 10:29 AM (#4057870)
Maybe Ackley should hit leadoff since he's the only player with a decent OBP on the entire team.
   6. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: February 10, 2012 at 10:31 AM (#4057871)
Ichiro’s goal is not to get on base, but to get on base with a hit


When he was getting on base at a .380 clip, this distinction couldn't have made the slightest possible difference on earth. The pitcher isn't exactly breezing through an inning if Ichiro is jumping around taking his lead off first base, even if he's only thrown one pitch.

Conversely if Ichiro is a .310 OBP guy now, he doesn't belong at leadoff no matter how many pitches he starts taking.

I guess Craig put it more concisely with "hahahahaha" :)
   7. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: February 10, 2012 at 10:34 AM (#4057874)
Wouldn't swapping Figgins' 39 OPS+ for a bag of baseballs do more good?
   8. Nasty Nate Posted: February 10, 2012 at 10:52 AM (#4057886)
It is an odd facet of baseball that improving as a player results in less playing time in some situations.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 10, 2012 at 10:54 AM (#4057888)
It is an odd facet of baseball that improving as a player results in less playing time in some situations.

Come again?
   10. I Am Not a Number Posted: February 10, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4057908)
Rosenthal is terrific at ferreting out news. He is beyond terrible at analysis.
   11. OCD SS Posted: February 10, 2012 at 11:26 AM (#4057912)
The interaction between Dave Cameron and Rosenthal on Twitter over this was pretty entertaining. Much more so than the article.
   12. Nasty Nate Posted: February 10, 2012 at 11:34 AM (#4057919)
It is an odd facet of baseball that improving as a player results in less playing time in some situations.

Come again?


If you are a leadoff hitter but get better (develop power etc) you get moved down in the lineup and therefore end up with fewer plate appearances. Or if you are a relief pitcher who is promoted to "closer" you no longer pitch in tie games and your usage becomes restricted.

This article reminded me of those situations. Robo's thinking is that the way to respond to a hitter being unbelievably terrible (he hit worse than Dunn last year) is to give him MORE of your team's plate appearances.
   13. Danny Posted: February 10, 2012 at 11:54 AM (#4057945)
Deep thoughts from Dave Cameron:
In 2010, Chone Figgins led off an inning 119 times. He had a .608 OPS. In 2011, he led off an inning 55 times - .449 OPS.

And for his career, Figgins has hit exactly the same leading off innings as he has overall.
   14. The DA Baracus Hypothesis Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:16 PM (#4057974)
Rosenthal is terrific at ferreting out news. He is beyond terrible at analysis.


Most reporters are. They're more interesting in narrative than what actually happened, so they become bias in their selection. They need to just stick to the facts.
   15. retro-shiite Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4058005)
I liked the sidebar headline better than the full head, because it read "Swapping Figgins for Ichiro at leadoff could revive..."

As in, write your own punchline.

EDIT: Not the sidebar, actually--the list of topics in the newsblog. My point remains.
   16. JPWF1313 Posted: February 10, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4058102)
This seems like little more than re-arranging deck chairs. Ichiro saw 3.51 pitches per PA last year. Figgins saw 4.09. Figgins career best is 4.21. So, switching them hypothetically gains what, .2 pitches per PA max? 1 every 5 games?


Look, this would not be problem if this was 2009, it really wouldn't matter who lead off and who batted second.

:-)

The mariners' problem is that this is 2012, both players are far enough on the wrong side of 30 that you seriously have to consider that the dropoff from 2009 to 2010 and again from 2010-2011 is not random noise but real change in talent

   17. Jittery McFrog Posted: February 10, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4058145)
"Swapping Figgins for Ichiro at leadoff could revive..."


the 6th best running gag on BBTF?
   18. Dale H. Posted: February 10, 2012 at 02:24 PM (#4058149)
Ichiro saw 3.51 pitches per PA last year. Figgins saw 4.09. Figgins career best is 4.21. So, switching them hypothetically gains what, .2 pitches per PA max? 1 every 5 games?
Isn't 4.09 - 3.51 > 0.2?
   19. Jittery McFrog Posted: February 10, 2012 at 02:28 PM (#4058155)
"Swapping Figgins for Ichiro at leadoff could revive..."


Oakland's chances of winning >70 games?
   20. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: February 10, 2012 at 02:50 PM (#4058182)
Ichiro saw 3.51 pitches per PA last year. Figgins saw 4.09. Figgins career best is 4.21. So, switching them hypothetically gains what, .2 pitches per PA max? 1 every 5 games?

Isn't 4.09 - 3.51 > 0.2?


Yes it is. But the author was talking about total pitches seen in the first inning, implying a possible increase of the Chone + Ichiro pitches/PA by swapping the two. Well, his career high is 4.21, which is .12 more than last year. Assuming he can get back there, and Ichiro doesn't drop (wiping out any potential gain), the net increase is negligible.
   21. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: February 10, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4058299)
If they're both batting in the first inning, then the total pitches seen in the first inning is the same whether it's Chone-Ichiro or Ichiro-Chone. Over the course of a season, it depends on the total PA difference between the first and second spots, which was ~17 PA/team in 2011. At their 2011 rates, that would net the M's a whopping ten pitches if they each played all 162 games.
   22. kthejoker Posted: February 15, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4061495)
#21: "At that point, a rival hitting coach explained, the No. 2 hitter is almost forced to be patient, or the pitcher will stand a good chance of breezing through the inning."

If this is true, then there would be a difference between Ichiro-Chone and Chone-Ichiro, since (in theory) Ichiro wouldn't be "forced to be patient" since he's Ichiro.

I love "baseball logic", what a delicious bowl of crock.

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