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Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Rosenthal: Twins pick up free-agent hurler Livan Hernandez

Robothalevski, comes across…

Livan Hernandez, who lingered on the free-agent market far longer than anticipated, finally has found a new team.

The Twins.

After trading Johan Santana to the Mets and losing free agent right-hander Carlos Silva to the Mariners, the Twins have signed Hernandez to stabilize their rotation, according to a major-league source.

Terms of the deal, which is expected to be announced Tuesday, are not known.

Repoz Posted: February 12, 2008 at 03:27 PM | 62 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: twins

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1. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: February 12, 2008 at 03:35 PM (#2688741)

I don't think this move is going to work out for the Twins. Livan's peripherals are declining rapidly and that's a tough division to pitch in.

<levski> Fernando Martinez for Livan!</levski>

2. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: February 12, 2008 at 03:38 PM (#2688745)

His strikeout rate has gotten truly hideous. If he holds the course he may be a LAIM, but even 10% more decline is going to turn him into Jose Lima. Earlier in the offseason I liked him as a value play because of his durability, and for some teams (not the Twins) a 2 year deal might be worth the risk, but anything longer than that would be a bet against long odds. And he definitely should have stayed in the National League if possible.

3. Chris Hansen, NBC Dateline Posted: February 12, 2008 at 03:39 PM (#2688746)

Woohoo!

4. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: February 12, 2008 at 03:40 PM (#2688748)

I just have to post this

I'm doing you a favor
As I'm taking all your money
I guess I should feel sorry
But I don't even trust me
There's bad news creeping up
And you feel a sudden chill
How do you do? My name is Livan
I'm coming to the hill

5. The Essex Snead Posted: February 12, 2008 at 03:45 PM (#2688755)

GO ROYALS!

6. shoewizard Posted: February 12, 2008 at 03:51 PM (#2688758)

Time to go back into the rankings and bump up AL Central hitters a buck.

7. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: February 12, 2008 at 03:53 PM (#2688761)

I think Livan goofed when he didn't accept arbitration from the D-backs. Nice gamble by Zona. If I were in charge, I wouldn't have offered.

8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 12, 2008 at 03:56 PM (#2688766)

$5-6M is pretty absurd for Livan.

This is where "small market" teams kill themselves. $5M for Livan, $2.1M for Nick Punto, $3.3M for Mike Lamb, $3.8M for Craig Monroe. That's $14.2M, more than halfway towards Johan.

I'm hard pressed to think those 4 guys couldn't be replaced with minor leaguers or AAAA castoffs.

9. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: February 12, 2008 at 03:57 PM (#2688768)

I liked the arbitration move. Getting Hernandez back on a 1 year/$10 million deal or whatever isn't a disaster. You're overpaying a little, but there's a decent chance Hernandez gives you 200 league average innings and helps you, and you have no long-term commitment. And that's assuming he accepted, which it was always likely he would not.

Thinking it through, making an educated gamble and grabbing an extra draft pick is one of the things that separates good GMs from bad (and at times good ownership from bad).

10. Tim Stauffer, Trot Nixon's Coming (Dan Lee) Posted: February 12, 2008 at 04:05 PM (#2688778)

Woohoo!

Yeah, part of me is happy the Twins appear to have stepped on a free agent landmine, but it's tough for me to wrap my brain around an Indians fan being excited to see Livan Hernandez.

Just the very thought of the guy makes me shudder, 11 years later.

11. Keith Law Posted: February 12, 2008 at 04:10 PM (#2688784)

I'm impressed, Levski. "Train" is a sadly underrated Megadeth song because it's so very un-Megadeth.

12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 12, 2008 at 04:22 PM (#2688795)

ZIPS has Livan posting a 5.55 ERA in the NL. So how much does that go up in the AL?

13. SG Posted: February 12, 2008 at 04:30 PM (#2688802)

Rough rule of thumb, add a half run when moving from the NL to the AL.

14. chemdoc Posted: February 12, 2008 at 04:37 PM (#2688805)

When reached for comment, Livan said "IM IN UR METRODOME STEALING UR MONEY!"

15. retro-shiite Posted: February 12, 2008 at 04:41 PM (#2688810)

it's tough for me to wrap my brain around an Indians fan being excited to see Livan Hernandez.

Well, Eric Gregg's long gone.

16. Sparkles Peterson Posted: February 12, 2008 at 04:46 PM (#2688814)

I'd say he's more of a "lobber."

17. Eugene Freedman

Posted: February 12, 2008 at 04:50 PM (#2688818)

And I was expecting a young rotation of:
Liriano
Bonser
Baker
Slowey
and Perkins or Humber

Now they've got a worse pitcher making more than all of them throwing bad innings instead of two of these guys.

18. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: February 12, 2008 at 04:51 PM (#2688819)

What compensation would the D-Backs get from the Twins? Livan is a Type B, right? Under the new agreement, do we get the 1st round supplemental pick or is it the 2nd rounder?

19. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: February 12, 2008 at 04:52 PM (#2688822)

1st round supplemental pick, I'm pretty sure.

20. Robert S. Posted: February 12, 2008 at 04:53 PM (#2688823)

ZIPS has Livan posting a 5.55 ERA in the NL. So how much does that go up in the AL?

He's also moving from Chase to the Metrodome. Then again, his suck is growing at a geometric rate.

21. Dag Nabbit apealing [sic] his own check swing Posted: February 12, 2008 at 04:59 PM (#2688826)

Livan's peripherals are declining rapidly and that's a tough division to pitch in.

Average OPS+ of NL West offenses Arizona faced: 96.5
Average OPS+ of AL Cent offenses Minn will face: 95.5

Not entirely fair as I expect Cle, CWS, & probably KC to improve offensively, but KC & Chicago remain lousy offenses. It's league adjustment here, not divisional. Factor in park, and his raw numbers will probably do a good job showing his age decline.

22. Craig in MN Posted: February 12, 2008 at 05:16 PM (#2688834)

ZIPS has Livan posting a 5.55 ERA in the NL. So how much does that go up in the AL?

That doesn't look good. He's had a WHIP of over 1.5 2 years ago and almost 1.6 last year. Yuck. Any idea of a rule of thumb for whip adjustments for NL to AL? Or do the intentional walks make up for the pitchers hitting?

23. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: February 12, 2008 at 05:19 PM (#2688836)

Average ability of NL offenses Arizona faced: iiiiiiii
Average ability of AL offenses Minn will face: IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII

24. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 12, 2008 at 05:21 PM (#2688839)

So Livan Hernandez is Spanish for "Sidney Ponson"?

25. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: February 12, 2008 at 05:35 PM (#2688846)

Keith, Megadeth is sadly underrated. But their concerts are tons of fun.

CBW, if Piazza and/or Stewart don't sign, the Dbacks will get the 43rd overall pick in the draft.

<levski> Fernando Martinez for Livan!</levski>

Fernando needs to show he can stay healthy first. The last thing the Twins need is another Alex Escobar.

26. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: February 12, 2008 at 05:36 PM (#2688847)

Rosenthal has updated the article to add contract details

the Twins have signed Hernandez to a one-year contract in the range of $5 million to $6 million, according to major-league sources.

The deal, expected to be announced Tuesday, will include performance-based incentives that will enable Hernandez to approximate his $7 million salary with the Diamondbacks last season.

27. DL from MN Posted: February 12, 2008 at 05:37 PM (#2688848)

245 lbs and 33 years old - are either of those accurate?

He's thrown 2400 innings in the majors (incl playoffs). Dropping his walk rate is going to be the key to being successful with the Twins. If he can drop the BB to a more reasonable level, I think he can put up 200 innings with a 5 ERA.

28. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: February 12, 2008 at 05:40 PM (#2688851)

Dropping his walk rate is going to be the key to being successful with the Twins. If he can drop the BB to a more reasonable level, I think he can put up 200 innings with a 5 ERA.

Obviously you haven't seen Livan in action. Every hitter starts with a 3-0 count against him.

29. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: February 12, 2008 at 05:41 PM (#2688852)

Thanks Levski

30. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: February 12, 2008 at 05:43 PM (#2688855)

NP, CBW. Now I'd like to see you (and your boss) use that pick on a flame throwing high schooler from the unknown depth of Ohio who becomes the second coming of Chad Billingsley. No pressure.

31. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: February 12, 2008 at 05:51 PM (#2688864)

I'm working on it....

32. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: February 12, 2008 at 05:55 PM (#2688869)

It's going to be weird to wait until the 26th pick this June. It's been a long time since the Dbacks have had unprotected first rounder. I just hope they don't end up with Craig Hansen...
[/cheap shot at Red Sox fans]

33. Lunkus Posted: February 12, 2008 at 06:13 PM (#2688897)

Using statistics I can geometrically prove that Livan is twice the pitcher that Johan is.

34. jmurph Posted: February 12, 2008 at 06:15 PM (#2688899)

I just hope they don't end up with Craig Hansen...

This is the year! He's going to turn it around! Or he's going to be the 5th prospect in a mid-season trade for a mediocre starter!

35. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: February 12, 2008 at 06:33 PM (#2688922)

Using statistics I can geometrically prove that Livan is twice the pitcher that Johan is.

You could also use BMI to prove the same point.

36. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 12, 2008 at 06:39 PM (#2688931)

Wow, I thought this was a bad signing, but I didn't even realize it featured draft pick compensation.

The Bill Smith era is not off to a great start.

37. Mike Emeigh

Posted: February 12, 2008 at 06:43 PM (#2688934)

Wow, I thought this was a bad signing, but I didn't even realize it featured draft pick compensation.

It's not direct compensation, though.

-- MWE

38. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: February 12, 2008 at 06:45 PM (#2688938)

Dropping his walk rate is going to be the key to being successful with the Twins.

This seems to be a Twins philosophy. Look at all the exceptionally low walk-rates their pitchers put up in recent years. Wouldn't be surprised if they think they can get Hernandez throwing strikes consistently.

Since 2000 there have been 81 pitcher-seasons of less than 2 BB/9 IP. 13 of them are by Twins, by 5 different pitchers.

39. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: February 12, 2008 at 06:49 PM (#2688942)

It's not direct compensation, though.

This mechanism creates a serious possibility of two teams colluding to get free draft picks. It wouldn't be difficult to set up a quid pro quo if the teams' interests match up properly.

The Cubs and Twins basically did just that when Chicago signed Henry Blanco. MLB probably turned a blind eye to that transaction because Chicago was making up for a paperwork snafu which cost the Twins a prospect in the Nomar trade.

40. Robert S. Posted: February 12, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#2688946)

The problem with Livan throwing strikes is that he gets hit and he gets hit hard.

41. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: February 12, 2008 at 06:56 PM (#2688951)

Yeah, same thing I was thinking, Robert S. I can throw strikes all night too, if the Twins are interested, and I'm willing to do it for only four million dollars, as long as I don't have to pay for all the baseballs that will get launched into orbit.

42. Robert S. Posted: February 12, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#2688958)

Here's what pitchers hit off Livan last year in 70 PA: .281/.293/.368

43. TerpNats Posted: February 12, 2008 at 07:02 PM (#2688959)

Some of us thought Livan would sign with the Washington Nationals. He did, all right -- the original ones.

44. Robert S. Posted: February 12, 2008 at 07:03 PM (#2688960)

Here's what pitchers hit off Webb last year in 68 PA: .113/.141/.113

45. Chris Hansen, NBC Dateline Posted: February 12, 2008 at 07:04 PM (#2688961)

Yeah, part of me is happy the Twins appear to have stepped on a free agent landmine, but it's tough for me to wrap my brain around an Indians fan being excited to see Livan Hernandez.

Vegeance is ours, Dan. Vengeance is ours. Now all we need is to hoist a trophy over Leyland's head and have Pronk kneecap Jose Mesa, and all will truly be well.

46. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: February 12, 2008 at 07:06 PM (#2688964)

Here's what pitchers hit off Livan last year in 70 PA: .281/.293/.368

And the incredible thing is, Micah Owings was on Livan's team.

47. Cris E Posted: February 12, 2008 at 07:08 PM (#2688967)

Robert S, you just stop that right this minute. Livan, he's a nice boy, and you just leave him alone. (And besides, there's no need for me to hear all this before it's absolutely necessary. Who's next, David Wells? Russ Ortiz? Rick Helling? blech...)

48. DL from MN Posted: February 12, 2008 at 07:09 PM (#2688969)

There's a difference between this signing and the Blanco signing. Blanco wasn't going to command a whole lot in an arbitration hearing. In order for Arizona to get this pick they had to offer Livan arb, a risky move on their part. After that as long as Livan signed a major league deal they get the B compensation.

There's a good chance Livan qualifies for B compensation again as long as he continues to rack up a ton of innings. There's less chance someone else gives him a major league deal next offseason though.

Not a lot of upside in this signing. The primary benefit to the Twins seems to be allowing their pitchers to develop at their own pace. Livan's value to the Twins isn't likely to exceed the $7M he can earn with performance bonuses.

49. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: February 12, 2008 at 07:20 PM (#2688984)

And the incredible thing is, Micah Owings was on Livan's team.

Unfortunately, so were the Diamondbacks hitters

50. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 12, 2008 at 07:27 PM (#2688993)

Here's what pitchers hit off Livan last year in 70 PA: .281/.293/.368

Real hitters hit .310/.376/.509. In other words, Livan turned every hitter into Victor Martinez.

51. Tim Stauffer, Trot Nixon's Coming (Dan Lee) Posted: February 12, 2008 at 08:47 PM (#2689107)

Now I'd like to see you (and your boss) use that pick on a flame throwing high schooler from the unknown depth of Ohio who becomes the second coming of Chad Billingsley. No pressure.

I've got just the Ohioan you should sign. He's a bit older than your typical draftee, could stand to lose 15-20 pounds, can't get his fastball above 56-57 since tearing the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, can't hit, and doesn't have a breaking pitch to speak of.

But he'd be scrappy.

52. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: February 12, 2008 at 09:06 PM (#2689130)

Well, Eric Gregg's long gone.

IIRC Gregg's assistance for Livan came in the NLCS and not the World Series. But I do remember it as being the most memorable performance by a home plate umpire in my baseball viewing career.

53. shoewizard Posted: February 12, 2008 at 09:15 PM (#2689137)

The one thing about Livan I have to say is he is the only one I can think of that could actually milk decent results out of the peripherals he had last year. It was beyond painful to watch. But you gotta give the guy credit for being a battler, fielding and hitting well, and basically busting his tail to try to win, even though he has nothing left in that arm.

I mean, the guy actually managed 19 Quality starts last year. Don't ask me how. But he kept the team in the game more often than not. Of course thats not going to happen in the AL. But I still gotta give the man some props for helping the D backs the last 1 1/3 years.

54. SouthSideRyan Posted: February 12, 2008 at 09:22 PM (#2689144)

Few things were more frustrating than watching the Cubs not score against Livan in game 3 last year. He is toast.

55. John Northey Posted: February 12, 2008 at 09:53 PM (#2689188)

Eh, there are worse ways to blow your cash. The Twins seem to have a lot to blow at the moment and Hernandez at least can throw 200+ innings (he has done it for years) and his ERA+ is 90+

56. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: February 13, 2008 at 12:33 AM (#2689364)

Dan,

As scrappy as that guy may be, I was thinking of signing someone else. I saw this guy today throwing in Marietta, Georgia. He MIGHT be too old though.

How about this guy

57. CraigK Posted: February 13, 2008 at 12:59 AM (#2689378)

Hey, CBW; have the D-Backs draft me.

I've only played one season of high school ball, so I'm extremely projectable!

I'm also 5'8 and white, so I've got the scrappy part going for me, too!

58. Dan Posted: February 13, 2008 at 01:15 AM (#2689385)

Few things were more frustrating than watching the Cubs not score against Livan in game 3 last year. He is toast.

That was one of the most frustrating things I've ever watched, and I'm not even a Cubs fan.

59. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: February 13, 2008 at 01:46 AM (#2689403)

I'm too tall to be scrappy. I doubt if I could throw 30 mph, though.

60. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: February 13, 2008 at 02:13 AM (#2689423)

Craig---

what other wonderful tools do you bring to the table?

Vaux---

5'9" is the Mendoza line for scrappy. I'm 5'10 and change....Can a pitcher with the unbelievable* stuff that I have be scrappy?

* may not be a true statement

61. Chase Insteadman Wannabe Posted: February 13, 2008 at 12:07 PM (#2689595)

You know, I'm going to get Livan's back here just because it feels like someone should. Yes, Eric Gregg handed Livan that NLCS game against the Braves. (I still remember the highlight package on sportscenter that night when they showed all of the strikeouts consecutively. I've never seen so many players openly staring at the umpire in shock and disbelief over strike three calls that missed the plate. Understandably.) Yes, he was really overrated in San Fransisco. But after joining Montreal/Washington he ripped off three straight excellent years in which he never pitched less than 233 innings. Even last year when he looked so horrible and couldn't strike anyone out he put up an ERA+ of 95 in 204 innings. If I recall correctly the average for a starting pitcher is actually right around 95, so even when washed up he was able to provide some serious value. For his career he now has 2371 innings pitched and a lifetime ERA+ of 100 on the button. Yeah, he's not going to the hall of fame. He might not even make the magicaly mysterious (and, alas, quite fictional) Hall of the Very Good. But he's hardly been Sidney Ponson and if he can repeat his numbers from last year he can be an effective starting pitcher for the Twins.

That said, Livan sure looked pretty washed up last time I saw him. I sure wouldn't want to be the GM who signed Livan Hernandez to a six million dollar contract less than a week after trading Johan Santana.

62. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: February 13, 2008 at 02:03 PM (#2689612)

Well, if 5'9 is the cutoff, I am really really scrappy! I can even throw an easy 60 mph despite a 5'6 wiry frame, can play a decent SS and it seems I can foul off any number of pitches off because I am a cricketer!
Magical 62nd round pick!

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Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Rosenthal: Twins pick up free-agent hurler Livan Hernandez

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