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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
When last seen…Robothal was out buying a red velvet coat just like Craig Sager’s.
Mussina’s choice
Friends of Yankees right-hander Mike Mussina are still convinced he will retire. One possible reason: Mussina fears that the Yankees will not be good enough next season for him to sufficiently chip away at the 30 victories he needs for 300.
Mussina, who turns 40 on Dec. 8, would consider playing for other teams near his home in Montoursville, Pa., but those teams either play in small ballparks (Phillies, Red Sox) or face their own competitive issues (Pirates, Orioles, Nationals, Indians). The Mets? Not happening.
One other thing about Mussina: His expectations of himself are so high, he could not tolerate getting hammered again the way he was in 2007. Better to go out on top, which is what he would be doing after his first 20-win season.
Repoz
Posted: October 15, 2008 at 07:14 PM | 14 comment(s)
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1. Gainsay Posted: October 15, 2008 at 07:55 PM (#2983020)The Yankees won 89 games last season. They won 94-101 each of the 7 other seasons he spent with the team. They consistently lead the league in payroll. Mussina is a smart guy. Don't you think he knows that it is unlikely that the Yankees will suddenly plummet from contention, even in the AL East? Doesn't he know that the Yankees will win quite a few ballgames the next few years? Then again, who knows? I didn't interview him either.
That rumor has been floated for months, and it's part of a trend.
For some reason, Kemp's name keeps getting attached to leaked trade proposals that end with the Dodgers getting hosed. Check BBTF's archives.
The worst part of these rumors is people would jump on Colletti for... I dunno, being GM of a team attached to a bad trade rumor. Seriously, I hope Ned gets canned after the season yet I found myself more often than not here defending him.
http://tinyurl.com/3hh772
Frankly, I think that every day that goes by that Moose DOESN'T retire is a clearer sign he's coming back (really, if the guy wanted to retire, he would have by now), under the same premise as Ben Franklin's epigram that neither a fortress nor a maidenhead will hold out long after either begins to parlay.
The qualms? Defense. Can Kemp stick in CF? If so, he's a good value; if not, he's not worth that much. Was Cano's overall defense this year just a short-term slump or a sign of things to come?
But Kemp is a high-K hitter whose true talent is probably around the 100ish OPS+ he posted this season. On contact, he hit 389/614. That first number simply is not sustainable, probably especially for a RHB. The second number might improve but probably not enough. Put him at a more reasonable 350/650 and you're talking a guy with an overall BA/SLG of 260/490. His walk rate is poor, would improve somewhat with that jump in power, but 260/320/490. That's nice in CF, definitely uninteresting in a corner and only mildly better than what he did this year.
Cano's career numbers are probably much more reflective of his true talent. He has a low K-rate, moderate power. His walk rate is even more atrocious but the low-K rate makes it much more likely he'll maintain a BA in the 290-300 range. And he has a higher "established upside" than Kemp. Yes, Kemp is 2 years younger but the ML success he's had to date has been due to what I consider a performance that he is highly unlikely to sustaint going forward. I don't see much reason to think he'll improve substantially from where he is.
They probably rate out about equal on offensive projection so it would come down to positional value (plus what I have in the organization), defense, whether you think Kemp can stick in CF and money. Money would win out and I'd hold onto Kemp.
But I sense that folks think Kemp has a much brighter future than Cano and I see no reason to think that's true. Kemp seems over-rated around here. The bright spots for me with Kemp is mainly that his minor-league K-rate was much better which suggests he might improve his ML K-rate.
It implies that the other three players would have been better than either. Wow.
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