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Monday, July 30, 2018

Roster Requirements: Thirteen young pitchers who might age well – The Athletic

Eno is a great analyst.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 30, 2018 at 08:21 AM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: projections

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   1. Rally Posted: July 30, 2018 at 08:37 AM (#5717864)
What's his track record for predicting longevity?

Did he have Bartolo Colon on such a list 20 years ago?
   2. haven Posted: July 30, 2018 at 07:15 PM (#5718175)
well, i can't read the article..... to hell with the athletic.......

and the word "might" makes it pretty worthless anyway. just bull all around.
   3. PreservedFish Posted: July 30, 2018 at 07:23 PM (#5718177)
and the word "might" makes it pretty worthless anyway. just bull all around.


To me, the word "might" makes it considerably less likely to be bull, because it suggests that the author has the wisdom to acknowledge the fact that he isn't a ####### psychic.
   4. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 30, 2018 at 07:32 PM (#5718179)
well, i can't read the article..... to hell with the athletic.......

This. At least just copy and paste the 13 names, if not the rationales behind them.
   5. PreservedFish Posted: July 30, 2018 at 08:05 PM (#5718195)
Let's just try and guess them.
   6. Tin Angel Posted: July 30, 2018 at 08:11 PM (#5718200)
Eno is a great analyst.


Baby's On Fire.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: July 30, 2018 at 09:48 PM (#5718243)
Did he have Bartolo Colon on such a list 20 years ago?

Isn't Sarris one of those guys who'd have been about 5 years old at the time? I'm sure all the 5-year-olds of today are data diving but pretty rare back then. :-)

At least just copy and paste the 13 names, if not the rationales behind them.

The issue here is of course not with the Athletic -- who have a right to try to make money and not have their copyright infringed by BBTF ... whether it works or not is a different story. Whether we should link to pay articles is the question. Also at what point do we cross the line from "fair" to "unfair" use -- i.e. would giving the 13 names cross that line.

In general, we seem to have enough trouble lately in generating discussion that it seems kinda pointless to begin a thread that only people who subscribe to the Athletic can participate in. Providing the 13 names (or the bottom 5 or something) might give us something to talk about other than this meta crap. Interesting question as to whether divulging some/all of the criteria would be more/less "unfair" than divulging the names.

Could we at least get filled in on how he defines "young"? How old do you have to be to have "aged well"? Is it both starters and relievers? Are they all in the majors?

Generally it seems a fool's errand. You mostly want guys who haven't been pitched heavily when young (up to 25?) -- but then that means we have very little info on their current talent level. We think we know that you want high-velocity fastball guys. It also seems that atrocious walk rates when young shouldn't necessarily be disqualifying as long as there's also a high K rate ... maybe K-BB or something that compares K to hits or otherwise identifies pitchers they can't hit is the way to go here.

But that's sort of assuming that "age well" means something like "is good in their 30s." If by "age well" we mean "are likely to be good over the next 5 years" or for ages 26-30 or whatever, we might want those with strong performance and innings under their belt already.

To a great extent, what we're really trying to predict here is major injury so if you have a predictive model that is genuinely good at identifying who will "age well", you are most likely well on your way to a predictive model for major injury ... and that sounds like a goldmine. (Or at least a predictive model for major injury that applies to pitchers that aren't fungible to begin with.)
   8. Copronymus Posted: July 31, 2018 at 01:46 PM (#5718542)
Could we at least get filled in on how he defines "young"? How old do you have to be to have "aged well"? Is it both starters and relievers? Are they all in the majors?


Young is 25 and below, and they're all in the majors, so functionally it's 23-25. They're also all starters. I didn't see anything where he defines what aged well is, or what the examples he's using for that are.
   9. bfan Posted: July 31, 2018 at 04:43 PM (#5718666)

and the word "might" makes it pretty worthless anyway


If the author has a thesis, he could change "might" to "should."

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