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Saturday, March 23, 2013

Roy Halladay struggles in minor league outing

Halladay, who left his last start after one inning with a stomach virus, needed 82 pitches to get 11 outs, retiring only seven of the 18 batters he faced. He gave up seven hits, walked two, and hit a batter. Another Toronto hitter reached base on a throwing error by Halladay.

This is not looking good at all

Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: March 23, 2013 at 01:43 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: phillies

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   1. Esoteric Posted: March 23, 2013 at 06:46 PM (#4395075)
Well, it was a good run while it lasted.

QUESTION: Assuming Halladay ends it after this year (which obvious isn't a likely outcome at all, but the point is just to asssess based on achievement up until this point), is he a HoF'er? Please answer as to both objective merit AND real-world voting probability.
   2. Bruce Markusen Posted: March 23, 2013 at 06:50 PM (#4395077)
I don't see how he's not a Hall of Famer, with two Cy Young Awards, a career ERA in the low 3.00s, and lots of league-leading numbers. He'll have over 200 wins by the end (he's one away), plus he'll get some bonus votes for a postseason no-hitter.
   3. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: March 23, 2013 at 07:11 PM (#4395084)
plus he'll get some bonus votes for a postseason no-hitter.

That won't happen because the voting rules forbid it. The BBWAA is incredibly strict about applying the HoF voting criteria uniformly and fairly.
   4. Blastin Posted: March 23, 2013 at 07:18 PM (#4395087)
Oh they won't say it in their articles, but they won't forget it.
   5. boteman is not here 'til October Posted: March 23, 2013 at 07:20 PM (#4395090)
So...Nats and Braves in the East this year?
   6. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: March 23, 2013 at 08:12 PM (#4395102)
I think he makes it in for the reasons Bruce lays out but I'm not 100% convinced. The BBWAA has demonstrated over the last two decades that they are completely incapable of recognizing great starting pitchers in the five man rotation era. I realize part of it is a function of players who haven't become eligible yet but Blyleven, who started his career in 1970, is the last starting pitcher debut in the Hall. By way of comparison 18 position players and 3 relievers who started their career after Blyleven are in.

For what it's worth my initial reaction was that I would vote for him. After quickly scanning his career numbers I stick to that, he's in on my ballot.
   7. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: March 23, 2013 at 08:22 PM (#4395104)
Halladay's career is awfully short for a Hall of Famer (on innings pitched, anyway), but that 134 ERA+ is pretty gaudy and he has the underlying stats to back it up. He'll make an interesting test case for the BBWAA once they clear off the coming wave of obviously qualified pitchers. Probably will provide them with someone to vote for other than Clemens.
   8. jacjacatk Posted: March 23, 2013 at 08:47 PM (#4395116)
His 10-year peak ('02-'11) averaged 17-8, 30 GS, 219 IP, 37 BB, 170 K, ERA+ 148. The most comparable stretch for Schilling looks like '96-'04, so 9 years at 16-9, 31 GS, 223 IP, 44 BB, 236 K, ERA+ 141. Personally I think the perfect game and post-season no-no top the bloody sock, and Halladay's been about as good post-season as Schilling in about 30% of the innings. I'd put them both in right now, and think the writers will eventually as well.

I think Halladay could probably manage to muddle along at something in the neighborhood of last year's pace even with the reduced velocity, allowing him to surpass Schilling in W and IP, and probably pulling his ERA+ down closer to Schilling's. That would probably actually hurt his case some with the writers, though, vs just not having it again this year and deciding to hang it up. I think he probably needs to be putting up 110ish ERA+ years to be helping his case with the writers.

   9. The District Attorney Posted: March 23, 2013 at 09:47 PM (#4395140)
The HOF rules state:
No automatic elections based on performances such as a batting average of .400 or more for one (1) year, pitching a perfect game or similar outstanding achievement shall be permitted.
So you couldn't vote for Halladay if the vote was based on the no-hitter and nothing else. But that of course is not all Halladay has to offer, and you can totally consider it as part of his case.
   10. John Northey Posted: March 23, 2013 at 09:48 PM (#4395141)
One really hopes it isn't too close to the end. He might miss a chunk of this year to deal with whatever is ailing him but I think he'll be back.

As to if he is done lets put on a BBWAA hat and see what they would look at...

Positives...
1) 3 times won 20+ - a positive
2) 2 Cy Youngs - a positive
3) A workhorse in an era of 'wusses' - plus but only as a tiebreaker
4) A post-season no-hitter in his first postseason game - big plus as voters have shown one postseason game can make a big difference in voting
5) 8 All-Star Games, doesn't hurt
6) Lots of black ink (48, most voters won't know the HOF standard of 40 but will see the black ink and be impressed)
7) Always viewed as a clean athlete who took below market contracts to stay where he was - never read anything negative about attitude either.


Negatives...
1) No ERA titles - a negative to many voters, although the number of times sub-3 (5 with 162+ IP) helps reduce this a bit
2) Didn't reach 300 wins, heck, not even 200 right now (yes, 1 win makes a difference to some voters)
3) Never won a World Series, arrived just as Phillies started going downhill
4) Short career, was he dominate enough to overcome that?
5) Played during steroid era (some voters seem to think that is enough) and with Roger Clemens (very briefly)

So, for most voters it probably will be a tough choice. Does the 'wow' factor push him high enough to ignore the short career? I suspect he'd be helped if a lot of the backlog vanished and if he could come back and get even 1 or 2 more wins as cracking 200 wins is big to a lot of voters. Getting to other 'markers' like 225 and 250 would help too of course. I suspect he'd be either a 'sympathy' candidate ala Puckett (if something is shown to have happened to him) and he gets in quick, or he grows on the ballot and gets there in 5 years or so (depending on competition).
   11. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: March 23, 2013 at 10:41 PM (#4395155)
One really hopes it isn't too close to the end. He might miss a chunk of this year to deal with whatever is ailing him but I think he'll be back.


I hope so too but I'm pessimistic. All his numbers declined last year and the sustained drop in velocity points to a probable shoulder injury. At his age any serious shoulder injury is likely to end his career. He's been my favorite pitcher to watch the past ten years so I hope I'm wrong, but given an over/under of 25 more wins in his career I think I'd have to bet the under.
   12. Lassus Posted: March 23, 2013 at 10:42 PM (#4395156)
Negatives...
1) No ERA titles - a negative to many voters, although the number of times sub-3 (5 with 162+ IP) helps reduce this a bit
2) Didn't reach 300 wins, heck, not even 200 right now (yes, 1 win makes a difference to some voters)
3) Never won a World Series, arrived just as Phillies started going downhill
4) Short career, was he dominate enough to overcome that?
5) Played during steroid era (some voters seem to think that is enough) and with Roger Clemens (very briefly)
6) Philles
   13. bobm Posted: March 23, 2013 at 11:10 PM (#4395174)
From B-R:

Roy Halladay age-based similar players (through age 35)

Totals given below are career totals from the start of their career through age 35.

 Sim Player               From  To Yrs  WAR  W   L   WL%   ERA    G   GS  GF  CG SHO  SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  ERA+
+---+--------------------+---------+--+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+
      Roy Halladay        1998-2012 15  62.3 199 100  .666  3.31  403 377   6  66  20   1 2687.3 2591 1087  987 224  556 2066 134
 928  Mike Mussina        1991-2004 14  64.7 211 119  .639  3.59  413 413   0  54  21   0 2833.3 2675 1203 1131 300  637 2258 126
 920  Tim Hudson          1999-2011 13  50.1 181  97  .651  3.40  378 377   0  24  12   0 2503.3 2336 1034  947 198  762 1699 126
 909  Bob Welch           1978-1992 15  41.4 199 129  .607  3.27  451 426  16  61  28   8 2856.7 2607 1152 1039 232  935 1862 111
 909  Dwight Gooden       1984-2000 16  50.1 194 112  .634  3.51  430 410   4  68  24   3 2800.7 2564 1198 1091 210  954 2293 110
 904  Andy Pettitte       1995-2007 13  44.5 201 113  .640  3.83  403 393   3  25   4   0 2527.7 2636 1196 1077 211  790 1844 118
 897  Kevin Brown         1986-2000 14  54.9 170 114  .599  3.21  382 380   1  71  17   0 2660.7 2494 1091  948 161  730 1917 129
 892  Bret Saberhagen     1984-1999 15  56.1 166 115  .591  3.33  396 368  13  76  16   1 2547.7 2433 1025  942 215  471 1705 126
 890* Carl Hubbell        1928-1938 11  56.5 205 112  .647  2.81  413 334  66 214  33  30 2834.7 2677 1034  884 160  531 1362 139
 887  Ron Guidry          1975-1986 12  42.6 163  80  .671  3.25  334 296  21  93  26   4 2218.3 2030  875  800 205  580 1650 120
 885  Lon Warneke         1930-1944 14  44.8 192 120  .615  3.18  436 342  60 192  30  13 2768.3 2710 1155  978 175  738 1134 119
      Roy Halladay        1998-2012 15  62.3 199 100  .666  3.31  403 377   6  66  20   1 2687.3 2591 1087  987 224  556 2066 134
+---+--------------------+---------+--+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+
 Average of all 10 Players          13  50.6 188 111  .629  3.33  403 373  18  87  21   5 2655.1 2516 1096  983 206  712 1772 122
 Avg of all 8 Retired Players       13  51.4 187 112  .625  3.27  406 371  22 103  24   7 2690.1 2523 1091  976 207  697 1772 122
   14. bobm Posted: March 23, 2013 at 11:12 PM (#4395175)
Roy Halladay age-based similar players (through age 35)

Totals given below are career totals beginning at age 36 through the end of their careers or through last year.

 Sim Player               From  To Yrs  WAR  W   L   WL%   ERA    G   GS  GF  CG SHO  SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  ERA+
+---+--------------------+---------+--+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+
      Roy Halladay        Was not playing, is not playing, or has not yet played at this age.
 928  Mike Mussina        2005-2008  4  13.5  59  34  .634  4.04  124 123   0   3   2   0  729.3  785  356  327  76  148  555 109
 920  Tim Hudson          2012-2012  1   1.8  16   7  .696  3.62   28  28   0   1   1   0  179.0  168   77   72  12   48  102 110
 909  Bob Welch           1993-1994  2  -1.0  12  17  .414  5.81   55  36   4   0   0   0  235.3  287  158  152  35   99  107  72
 909  Dwight Gooden       Was not playing, is not playing, or has not yet played at this age.
 904  Andy Pettitte       2008-2012  4   9.7  44  29  .603  3.94   98  98   0   0   0   0  603.0  614  291  264  60  193  476 112
 897  Kevin Brown         2001-2005  5   9.4  41  30  .577  3.58  104  96   0   1   0   0  595.7  585  266  237  47  171  480 115
 892  Bret Saberhagen     2000-2001  1  -0.1   1   2  .333  6.00    3   3   0   0   0   0   15.0   19   11   10   3    0   10  76
 890* Carl Hubbell        1939-1943  5   8.4  48  42  .533  3.62  122  99  16  46   3   3  755.7  784  346  304  67  194  315 102
 887  Ron Guidry          1987-1988  2   2.8   7  11  .389  3.83   34  27   3   2   0   0  173.7  168   78   74  21   53  128 111
 885  Lon Warneke         1945-1945  1  -0.1   0   1  .000  3.86    9   1   5   0   0   0   14.0   16    9    6   0    1    6  97
      Roy Halladay        Was not playing, is not playing, or has not yet played at this age.
+---+--------------------+---------+--+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+
 Average of all 9 Players            2   4.9  25  19  .569  3.94   64  56   3   5   0   0  366.7  380  176  160  35  100  242 105
 Avg of all 7 Retired Players        2   4.7  24  19  .551  3.97   64  55   4   7   0   0  359.8  377  174  158  35   95  228 103
 Roy Halladay through age 35        15  62.3 199 100  .666  3.31  403 377   6  66  20   1 2687.3 2591 1087  987 224  556 2066 134
+---+--------------------+---------+--+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+
 Projected Career Totals            17  67.0 223 119  .651  3.38  467 432  10  73  20   1 3047.1 2968 1261 1145 259  651 2294 129
 Roy Halladay career totals         15  62.3 199 100  .666  3.31  403 377   6  66  20   1 2687.3 2591 1087  987 224  556 2066 134

   15. SoSH U at work Posted: March 24, 2013 at 12:35 AM (#4395186)
The BBWAA has demonstrated over the last two decades that they are completely incapable of recognizing great starting pitchers in the five man rotation era. I realize part of it is a function of players who haven't become eligible yet but Blyleven, who started his career in 1970, is the last starting pitcher debut in the Hall. By way of comparison 18 position players and 3 relievers who started their career after Blyleven are in.


While I do agree with the idea that the BBWAA is struggling with assessment of starting pitchers, it's also true that there wasn't any starting pitching greatness to recognize between Blyleven and Clemens. There were a few "OK, but only because the rules require we elect someone" Hall of Meriters in there, but the only guy with true Cooperstown numbers that's fallen off the ballot since Blyleven made it was a gentleman with considerable negatives (including a role in the Mitchell Report).

   16. Lars6788 Posted: March 24, 2013 at 12:49 AM (#4395188)
A couple more decent / good seasons gets him in - he will be seen as the best pitcher in his generation or at least the years where he was racking up ace type numbers - is it reasonable to believe he probably needs around 220-225 wins before he is a virtual lock.
   17. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: March 24, 2013 at 01:21 PM (#4395273)
Never won a World Series, arrived just as Phillies started going downhill

Other than they increased win totals each year in 2009, 2010 and 2011. :) Of course the writers would see the WS winner -> WS loser -> NLCS loser -> NLDS loser progression only.
   18. John Northey Posted: March 24, 2013 at 05:28 PM (#4395384)
Yeah Edmundo, I was referring to the playoffs figuring that is how writers would see it. When talking HOF and what will happen you have to think like the writers have shown themselves to vote.

It would be funny if it was the end as Halladay is very religious yet his winning percentage is 666

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