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Monday, December 09, 2013

Roy Halladay to retire as a Blue Jay

Greatest Blue Jays pitcher: Roy Halladay or Dave Stieb?

Charlie Gibbs Fracture Zone Posted: December 09, 2013 at 12:35 PM | 88 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: blue jays, cy young award, phillies

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   1. Esoteric Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:04 PM (#4614347)
Wow. Adios, Roy, you will be missed. He deserves the Hall, and this would surely seem to suggest that he wants to go in as a Jay. Which is cool.

EDIT: Man, this is actually sort of bumming me out.
   2. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:07 PM (#4614353)
Hmm. Did he fall a few hundred innings short of the Hall?

He's close to the Brown/Smoltz/Schilling class and has a slightly better ERA+ than them (131) but they had 500 or 600 more innings...

At first glance he belongs but a few more looks could raise some doubts. He never really had any of the >200 astronomical ERA+s.

Basically he had a prime of 2300 innings at a 148 ERA+. 11 seasons (including 3 shortened ones) but not much outside of that.
   3. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:09 PM (#4614357)
I'll always enjoy the fact that after years of pining to get a chance to pitch in the post-season, he finally did get an opportunity and then he goes ahead and throws a no-hitter in that first game.


   4. jdennis Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:11 PM (#4614361)
I have Halladay as the #21 all time pitcher. Stieb, #54. Subtracting Halladay's Philly years and Stieb's stub with the White Sox, the gap is about 20%, approximately 420-350 in my rating score. So Halladay wins the comparison.

As for the HOF, he will certainly be seen as a borderline guy by a lot of voters. He is above my standard, but I think he will get ~50% his first year on the ballot, and will take a few years to get in. By then, the sabermetric people will have more influence, so I am optimistic about his overall chances.
   5. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:14 PM (#4614365)
He's close to the Brown/Smoltz/Schilling class and has a slightly better ERA+ than them (131) but they had 500 or 600 more innings...

His ERA+ is weighed down by lousy seasons on the front and back ends of his career; if you look at just 2001-12, it's 143 in 2456.1 innings.

For the sake of comparison, Smoltz also had a 143 ERA+ over a similar timespan (1996-2008), but it included a stint as a closer and therefore covered 600 fewer innings. Brown from '92-'03 had a near-identical number of innings (2441) at a marginally lower rate (139), plus a couple of other seasons that weren't totally without value. Schilling from '92-'04 had 2667.2 at 134; if you drop his '93 season, he's probably pretty close.

I'm entirely comfortable with all four pitchers in the Hall.
   6. deputydrew Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:15 PM (#4614366)
Interesting guy. The one blowup season in Toronto, followed by being busted down to single A, then coming back to be the best starter in baseball is quite a story. I wasn't expecting a retirement, but it's obviously his choice. I wonder if there's an injury that he doesn't want to or can't fight through.
   7. Greg K Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:17 PM (#4614370)
I recall he missed his last start of the year due to some vague, mysterious diet issue or something.

If I had to guess, I'd say injury played some role.
   8. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:18 PM (#4614374)
His ERA+ is weighed down by lousy seasons on the front and back ends of his career;


I count those. -2.8 WAR (his disastrous year in 2000) really kills a team.
   9. formerly dp Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:20 PM (#4614377)
Just going on gut alone, I've got to say Doc....

Looks like he rebounded nicely from the disaster that was 2000. Now if only Kyle Drabeck could follow suit.
   10. formerly dp Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:22 PM (#4614378)
Also, he seems like the type of guy who will be un-retired in a year, provided he's feeling healthy again...and hopefully just in team to lead the Jays to a pennant...
   11. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:22 PM (#4614379)
If I had to guess, I'd say injury played some role.


Am I missing something? He hurt his shoulder in 2012 and was never the same again. I thought this was common knowledge. He missed a lot of time with injury over the past couple of years. He's hurt.
   12. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:22 PM (#4614381)
There's room in the Hall for Halladay, certainly. He's in the same league as pitchers who will get in like Smoltz and Schilling. But he's not notably better than Kevin Brown, who didn't make it past his first year on the ballot. (I'm really pissed about Kevin Brown.)
   13. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:23 PM (#4614383)
Yeah, Ray's right. His shoulder turned into hamburger meat. He's been done for more than a year now.
   14. Into the Void Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:24 PM (#4614384)
Am I missing something? He hurt his shoulder in 2012 and was never the same again. I thought this was common knowledge. He missed a lot of time with injury over the past couple of years. He's hurt.


In the press conference he actually said his arm/shoulder is fine, it's his back that's forcing him to retire...pinched nerves, etc.
   15. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:24 PM (#4614385)
Repeating myself from another thread, Halladay looks like a well qualified Hall of Famer to me, and I expect he'll be elected by the writers eventually.
   16. Yastrzemski in left. Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:24 PM (#4614387)
This guy was awesome. He will be missed.
   17. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:26 PM (#4614390)
(I'm really pissed about Kevin Brown.)


As you should be. Almost as unfathomable as (off the top of my head) Lou Whitaker's one-&-done.
   18. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:26 PM (#4614391)
He was quietly one of the most popular players of his day, wasn't he? I have never met a baseball fan who didn't think Roy Halladay was awesome.
   19. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:29 PM (#4614397)
In the press conference he actually said his arm/shoulder is fine, it's his back that's forcing him to retire...pinched nerves, etc.


But the fact remains that he was never the same after hurting his shoulder.

By the way, I expect him to make it to the HOF easily.
   20. Shock Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:29 PM (#4614399)
I am actually devastated by this. Last season made me incredibly sad and I really hoped he had enough left for a farewell tour. God damn it. ####.

   21. AROM Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:30 PM (#4614401)
I count those. -2.8 WAR (his disastrous year in 2000) really kills a team.


That team only finished 4 games behind the Yankees. They also had Chris Carpenter pitching to a 6+ ERA. Talk about bad timing.
   22. Boileryard Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:33 PM (#4614405)
During the press conference, Halladay said that the back issues caused him to deviate from his preferred mechanics, which caused the shoulder trouble. He says the shoulder feels fine now and his back was the biggest concern. It's all interrelated.
   23. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:36 PM (#4614408)
An outstanding player who was respected by all. Halladay definitely had the 'feel' of a HOFer, and has some moments that will sound great on his Cooperstown plague: 2 Cy Youngs, a perfect game and a postseason no-no.
   24. gehrig97 Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:36 PM (#4614410)
Sad news. One of my all-time favorites. I've always been partial to guys who dominate with guile, location and movement. There was no one more fun to watch over the last few years.

While he'd certainly get my vote, I'm not so sure Doc has an easy path to the HOF. Hope I'm wrong. The peak is there, but it's not a Koufax/Pedro peak... counting stats still matter to Hall voters (and to some degree they should).
   25. Esoteric Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:38 PM (#4614411)
I think Halladay will be one of those guys who, statistically, seems like he should be a more 'borderline' HoF candidate but who ends up sailing in relatively easily simply because there isn't a person alive with a bad thing to say about him. (The fact that he really does have some shiny jewels in his crown -- two Cy Youngs, workhorse reputation, perfect game, the second-ever postseason no-no in his very first postseason start, etc. -- will help a lot in terms of 'narrative.') He won't go in on the first ballot, but I'd be genuinely surprised if he had to wait until the fifth.
   26. formerly dp Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:38 PM (#4614412)
He says the shoulder feels fine now and his back was the biggest concern.
See? 2015, he'll be back.
   27. gehrig97 Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:40 PM (#4614416)
25: I hope (and to a degree, suspect) you're right. Doc certainly "feels" like a HOFer.
   28. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:42 PM (#4614420)
Halladay definitely had the 'feel' of a HOFer, and has some moments that will sound great on his Cooperstown plague: 2 Cy Youngs, a perfect game and a postseason no-no.


Not just any no-no; it's a great story. Halladay waited more than ten years for the chance to pitch in the postseason. When he finally got his chance, he went out and threw a 28-batter no-hitter.

Yeah, it's a bit down the path of "A weighted random number generator just produced a new batch of numbers; let's use them to build narratives!" but still. Awesome story.
   29. gehrig97 Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:43 PM (#4614421)
B-Ref comps, for what it's worth.

Tim Hudson (945)
CC Sabathia (924)
Dwight Gooden (920)
Ron Guidry (898)
Jimmy Key (894)
Dazzy Vance (890) *
Roy Oswalt (887)
Bret Saberhagen (883)
Lon Warneke (881)
Bartolo Colon (879)

Obviously, the narratives are wildly divergent.
   30. Loren F. Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:44 PM (#4614423)
This is a real shame. What a great pitcher. I would support him for the Hall of Fame but I suspect that, even with two Cy Young Awards, he'll have trouble garnering even 50% of the vote his first year on the ballot: not enough wins for many mainstream writers; not enough innings for others; and "not a first ballot HoFer" to others. On the plus side, he's got a case for the best starting pitcher of his era (in a relatively weak era following the Maddux/Clemens/Johnson/Pedro/Glavine/Mussina/Schilling/Smoltz years). I hope he debuts with enough momentum that it only takes 3 or 4 years for him to get voted in.
   31. Best Regards, President of Comfort Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:45 PM (#4614428)
Well...

...bye.
   32. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:46 PM (#4614429)
What sort of competition is he likely to face? The current pitcher glut will be largely resolved, one way or another. Who else is likely to be on the ballot?
   33. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:49 PM (#4614431)
Primey for #31. Even though the reference isn't exact as he wasn't talking to Doc, it's still awesome.
   34. toratoratora Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:51 PM (#4614432)
Wheew, this feels out of nowhere.Obviously I was aware he was hurt the last few years,but not retirement level.
It feels like yesterday we were having "If he got hit by a bus right now, would he make the hall?" threads.
While participating in those threads,I never would have guessed that was really happening.
Good pitcher. Classy classy guy.
What a quiet end to a fascinating career.
   35. Loren F. Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:59 PM (#4614442)
To clarify, I'm not trying to diss Halladay. I think the writers, for all their faults, are hip to the modern usage of starters and relievers, so a starter doesn't need 275 wins and 3,500 innings to make the Hall. The comp list in #29 doesn't look promising until one realizes that: Hudson is legitimately in the HoF conversation; Sabathia is probably three-quarters of his way to Cooperstown (unless he falls off a cliff); and Saberhagen has a credible case for the Hall (and the man's got "saber" in his name, people!).
   36. AROM Posted: December 09, 2013 at 03:03 PM (#4614445)
What sort of competition is he likely to face? The current pitcher glut will be largely resolved, one way or another. Who else is likely to be on the ballot?


He'll be on the same ballot as Mariano Rivera for one. The rest of his competition will be the super glut currently seen on the ballot, other than the few who get in.
   37. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 03:29 PM (#4614468)
Guys, Halladay is going to be on the ballot until 2033. Twenty years is a LONG time in the Information Age. Think of all the progress that's been made in understanding baseball from 1993 to today.

Besides that, everyone including the writers loves Roy Halladay. He won't go in first ballot, but he'll probably make it by his sixth or seventh, tops.

Ninjaedit: Plus the current glut is going to be mostly cleared out by the time Halladay hits the ballot. He will probably be viewed as the best pitcher on the ballot the first year he hits it. How many no-doubt Hall of Fame pitchers are active right now? How many that (a) will probably retire within the next five years and (b) will be clear Hall of Famers if they put in just a few more strong seasons?

I think Halladay is going to sail in.
   38. Shock Posted: December 09, 2013 at 03:33 PM (#4614473)
I think Halladay is probably borderline purely on merit but add in the two Cy Youngs, the post season mono, the perfect game, and his reputation as a gamer and leading league with complete games and I think he makesiit fairly easily.
   39. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 09, 2013 at 03:33 PM (#4614474)
In addition to the back and shoulder, there were mysterious references to digestive issues that led to all kinds of speculation. He was an absolute joy to watch in Philly (Thank you, Jay fans). I hope he is healthy and pain-free. when he is living a "normal" life.

It's amazing how fast his career ended. We were all having the "hit by a bus" conversations about him a couple of years ago, and then he got hit by a figurative bus.

I look forward to a tribute night in Philly next year. It's a shame that the Phils couldn't win a WS while he was here.
   40. AROM Posted: December 09, 2013 at 03:33 PM (#4614475)
Jack Morris comes off the ballot after this year. Within the next 5, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, and Don Mattingly will finish their 15 year runs. None have a realistic chance of getting in by the BBWAA anyway. The rest of the current clusterf*** will be there.

Halladay will be facing some very stiff competition when he hits the ballot. Among pitchers he'll be facing Smoltz, Schilling, Mussina, Clemens, Rivera, and Santana. And that is with the very generous assumption that the writers will put Pedro, Randy, Glavine, and Maddux in before then.
   41. Rusty Priske Posted: December 09, 2013 at 03:36 PM (#4614478)
He is my favourite player of all time. I will miss him.

I am glad he came back to the Jays to retire. I look forward to them retiring his number (or level of excellence or whatever it is called)... and I hopefully look forward to his induction to the Hall of Fame.

Will he get in? I have no idea because the Hall voters have been following nothing to do with logic for some time now. Does he deserve induction? Definitely. Will he get in?

Does Tim Raines deserve induction?
   42. Shock Posted: December 09, 2013 at 03:38 PM (#4614480)
I assume the joys will have a ceremony eyes for him in next season.

I think I now when know when Mr to book my trip to Ontario.
   43. Shrike Posted: December 09, 2013 at 04:03 PM (#4614507)
I echo #41 in every respect.
   44. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 04:03 PM (#4614508)
The rest of his competition will be the super glut currently seen on the ballot, other than the few who get in.


I meant pitcher-wise. I suspect it will be evident in 2-3 years whether Bonds, Clemens et al. get in or not, and if they don't their totals will drop gradually. They won't represent competition for newcomers to the ballot.
   45. BDC Posted: December 09, 2013 at 04:07 PM (#4614516)
There aren't many pitching careers similar to Halladay's. The two closest, by Starts and ERA+, are Stan Coveleski and Hal Newhouser. One would have to think that Halladay was a more dominant pitcher than Coveleski, in a more difficult league to dominate, but Coveleski is a HOF/HOM pitcher who had some outstanding seasons. Newhouser was as dominant or more, in a weaker league than either. Once you get further from those two, the other comps get so remote that they're not much use, though Saberhagen is an intriguing one:

Player             WAR  GS ERAFrom   To   Age   W SV     IP
Roy Halladay      65.6 390  131 1998 2013 21
-36 203  1 2749.1
Stan Coveleski    65.1 385  127 1912 1928 22
-38 215 21 3082.0
Hal Newhouser     60.4 374  130 1939 1955 18
-34 207 26 2993.0
Bret Saberhagen   59.2 371  126 1984 2001 20
-37 167  1 2562.2
Tommy Bridges     52.6 362  126 1930 1946 23
-39 194 10 2826.1 


   46. John DiFool2 Posted: December 09, 2013 at 05:09 PM (#4614571)
At first glance he belongs but a few more looks could raise some doubts. He never really had any of the >200 astronomical ERA+s.


That's because ERA+ (and analogous measures) do not scale linearly between eras with greatly differing offensive levels-I am pretty well nigh convinced of that. In other words the "floor" is farther below the average (100) mark in a higher-offense period, more easily reached. Post 1920 (and no WWII seasons), among pitchers with ERA+ seasons 200 or above, only 5 out of 19 did that in a low-to-historically normal offensive environment-the other 14 were from the 1920-1935 era, and the 1994-2006 period.
   47. Misirlou is on hiding to nowhere Posted: December 09, 2013 at 05:40 PM (#4614594)
Just saw his press conference. Anyone know why he would be displaying a Tigers hat? He wasn't wearing it, it was one of 4 on display on the table in front of the microphone: Tigers, Jays, Phillies, and one with some sort of ribbon like AIDS or Breast Cancer. The Tigers hat (or whatever it was), was black with an orange script "D".
   48. Boileryard Posted: December 09, 2013 at 05:43 PM (#4614597)
The other two caps belonged to the teams his kids play for.
   49. Misirlou is on hiding to nowhere Posted: December 09, 2013 at 05:51 PM (#4614601)
OK, thanks. If he explained why, I must have missed it.
   50. Publius Publicola Posted: December 09, 2013 at 05:56 PM (#4614607)
He's in the same league as pitchers who will get in like Smoltz and Schilling.


Regular season yes. Where he diverges is that he has no notable post-season accomplishments, and so is a lesser candidate for that reason, IMO.
   51. Fancy Pants Handle doesn't need no water Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:00 PM (#4614614)
Regular season yes. Where he diverges is that he has no notable post-season accomplishments, and so is a lesser candidate for that reason, IMO.

Yes, post-season no-hitters are the definition of not notable *rolls eyes*
   52. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:01 PM (#4614615)
Re: #45 -- interesting, Bob.

I need to dig up more info about Tommy Bridges; I've been mildly intrigued about him for decades, really, ever since coming across some old baseball card of his in a mail-order catalogue when I was a kid.
   53. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:02 PM (#4614616)
Yes, post-season no-hitters are the definition of not notable *rolls eyes*


Yeah. That's a ... uh ... marked misstatement, #50.
   54. Publius Publicola Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:03 PM (#4614617)
Yes, post-season no-hitters are the definition of not notable *rolls eyes*


And that's how notable it is. I've forgotten about it already.
   55. Esoteric Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:03 PM (#4614618)
Regular season yes. Where he diverges is that he has no notable post-season accomplishments, and so is a lesser candidate for that reason, IMO.
This can only be 1.) trolling; 2.) joking. Because if you meant it seriously, oh wow.
And that's how notable it is. I've forgotten about it already.
THIS JUST IN: Kevin's personal recollections now the objective standard for baseball memorability.
   56. Esoteric Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:06 PM (#4614621)
Hey you know what? I don't remember that Game 7 Bill Mazeroski walk-off home run in the 1960 World Series -- I was born in 1980, which may explain it -- so I'm pretty sure it wasn't all that notable.

(Meanwhile, my Yankee-loving dad pretends to this day that he can't remember the 1960 World Series at all...it's still that painful for him.)
   57. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:11 PM (#4614628)
I remember barely any of these people in the Hockey Hall of Fame. Notable my butt.
   58. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:27 PM (#4614646)
And that's how notable it is. I've forgotten about it already.


Would that I could forget that goddamned bloody sock so easily. I stand by the assessment. Halladay is in the Kevin Brown/Curt Schilling/John Smoltz/Mike Mussina tier. He's not a shoo-in, no doubter, but he'll probably get in. Again, he completes his career closer in stature to Kevin Appier than to Greg Maddux, which seems like a let down ending, but baseball is designed to break your heart.
   59. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:31 PM (#4614648)
I actually thought of Saberhagen first, but in terms of career progression and perception I actually think Halladay is more like Orel Hershiser, even though it's not a good statistical comp. Ultimately I think that's the lens through which Halladay will be viewed - and I don't think it's going to be quite enough to get him there.

-- MWE
   60. vortex of dissipation Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:33 PM (#4614652)
I need to dig up more info about Tommy Bridges; I've been mildly intrigued about him for decades, really, ever since coming across some old baseball card of his in a mail-order catalogue when I was a kid.


Rob Neyer wrote a useful, if short (six pages), essay on Bridges in The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers.
   61. Danny Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:37 PM (#4614657)
Most Pitching rWAR, 2002-2011:
                             
Rk            Player  WAR   Age
1       Roy Halladay 62.4 25-34
2      Johan Santana 50.1 23-31
3        CC Sabathia 47.7 21-30
4         Roy Oswalt 46.4 24-33
5       Mark Buehrle 42.3 23-32
6         Tim Hudson 40.4 26-35
7    Carlos Zambrano 38.7 21-30
8     Javier Vazquez 34.1 25-34
9       Brandon Webb 33.4 24-30
10     Randy Johnson 33.3 38-45
The only batters ahead of him over this 10-year stretch were Pujols (79.8) and A-Rod (67.1).
   62. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:42 PM (#4614665)
I'm pretty small hall and I was thinking no way, but it's a strong case. Top 5 in the Cy voting six straight years, so he obviously was thought of as one of the greats of his day which means a lot to me. I could see it. I would sooner vote for him over the more accumulator types like Brown and Smoltz.
   63. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:48 PM (#4614670)
I actually thought of Saberhagen first, but in terms of career progression and perception I actually think Halladay is more like Orel Hershiser, even though it's not a good statistical comp.

Cy Young award shares:

Hershiser: 1.32 (40th) - 1 win, votes in three other years
Saberhagen 2.20 (13th) - 2 wins, votes in one other year
Halladay: 3.50 (8th) - 2 wins, votes in five other years

Halladay has almost exactly as many Cy shares as Hershiser and Saberhagen combined, and got votes in as many years as the two others combined. That seems like (accurately) perceived superiority to me.
   64. rudygamble Posted: December 09, 2013 at 07:01 PM (#4614681)
I stand by the assessment. Halladay is in the Kevin Brown/Curt Schilling/John Smoltz/Mike Mussina tier. He's not a shoo-in, no doubter, but he'll probably get in.


Agreed, even though Schilling and Mussina are +15 WAR. The non-Mussinas are all bunched together because they are all between 200-220 wins. At that level, Black Ink, Cy Young/World Series, and perception are going to play a big role. Smoltz/Schilling/Halladay look good through that prism. Mussina less so but should get in eventually because of his WAR and that he'll be the best SP on the ballot for year(s). Brown had a "prick+steroids" perception and got lost in the Cy Young race given the insane competition at the time.

I'd bet Halladay makes it in within 3 years. I have no idea what will happen with Johan. 139 career wins, yeesh.
   65. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 07:15 PM (#4614691)
Orel Hershiser had two careers--he was a short-lived star before he tore up his shoulder, and then he had a pretty good ten-year career as a league average innings eater after. Hershiser falls short of the Hall of Fame line, but only just. If he'd waited another two years to blow out his shoulder he'd probably go in. (You guys know I like to hit all dimwit Jack Morris supporters over the head with Orel Hershiser until their tiny brains leak out their ears.)

Halladay had one career, reasonably long and with two spectacular peaks bookending a string of very good seasons, cut somewhat (but not very) short by injury. I don't think there's a very good comp for him out there, at least not within recent memory. I think he will be remembered as the Pitcher of the 2000s and will be elected quickly.

Johan Santana might see a second ballot but won't see a third.
   66. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 07:39 PM (#4614712)

Rob Neyer wrote a useful, if short (six pages), essay on Bridges in The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers.


Thanks, vortex -- good to know. I own that book, which makes me suspect I read that piece but have forgotten it. Time to unearth my copy, obviously.
   67. Jeff R., P***y Mainlander Posted: December 09, 2013 at 08:11 PM (#4614731)
I think Halladay has couple of points that will get him some bonus points from the HOF voters:
- Pitched against the Red Sox and Yankees in the AL East for mediocre Blue Jays team; still managed a .650+ winning percentage
- Threw lots of complete games and pitched a lot of innings; may get some leftover "took one for the team" Jack Morris love to explain why he never put up a Pedro-esque ERA in the 1s (but then, who does?)
   68. michaelplank has knowledgeable eyes Posted: December 09, 2013 at 08:12 PM (#4614732)
(The fact that he really does have some shiny jewels in his crown -- two Cy Youngs, workhorse reputation, perfect game, the second-ever postseason no-no in his very first postseason start, etc. -- will help a lot in terms of 'narrative.')


The narrative will include the (mostly valid) notion that a good Phillies team needed an ace, at a time when aces weren't growing on trees, and they went out and got him and he pitched like an ace.


   69. Harvey Berkman Posted: December 09, 2013 at 09:25 PM (#4614759)
I'd imagine his plaque will feature that hideous black-cap Jays logo
   70. AndrewJ Posted: December 09, 2013 at 09:30 PM (#4614761)
Don Larsen's perfect game kept him on the BBWAA Hall ballot all 15 years. You've got to assume that Halladay's postseason no-no will have to enhance his voting potential.
   71. Squash Posted: December 09, 2013 at 09:47 PM (#4614770)
Man, the lights can turn off fast.
   72. Karl from NY Posted: December 09, 2013 at 09:54 PM (#4614774)
You've got to assume that Halladay's postseason no-no will have to enhance his voting potential.

It can't hurt, but not likely to be much more than a footnote. Larsen's was unique in MLB history and a key part of the team rebounding to a championship. Halladay's was in the first game of the first round in an otherwise totally forgettable series and then the team got bounced in the next round. There's not enough narrative for a Historically Significant Accomplishment for the scribes to wring columns out of.
   73. frannyzoo Posted: December 09, 2013 at 10:00 PM (#4614776)
Man, the lights can turn off fast.


Sic transit gloria and all that, or this poem. Not that he's dead, or even likely long-term brain damaged ala football. Another reason to hate the whole HOF concept, if you ask me. Enjoy your plentiful remaining years, Mr. Halladay. Thanks.
   74. John Northey Posted: December 09, 2013 at 10:08 PM (#4614781)
I'd hope all the writers who go nuts over the character clause vote for Halladay as he was both a great player and (from all public accounts) a great person. He donated millions (literally) to the Toronto branch of his church iirc (tithed 10%). He was known for being humble and for going out of his way to help. A role model during an era when they seemed few and far between. As I said, if that bit about character holds any weight then he should be a lock.
   75. greenback likes millwall Posted: December 09, 2013 at 10:17 PM (#4614785)
Man, the lights can turn off fast.

Mark Prior also is retiring.
   76. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 10:33 PM (#4614793)
Roy Halladay was one of the quietest superstars in sports, but every time I've heard of him opening his mouth what he's had to say has been articulate and thoughtful. If he ever writes anything I'll stand in line to read it.
   77. bobm Posted: December 09, 2013 at 10:46 PM (#4614806)
Most Pitching rWAR, 2002-2011:

But Halladay had only the 4th most wins in the 2000s :-)

(Does this mean that Pettitte can look forward to being the next Jack Morris? At least Maddux led the 1990s.)

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 2000 to 2009, sorted by greatest Wins

                                      
Rk          Player   W From   To   Age
1    Andy Pettitte 148 2000 2009 28-37
2    Randy Johnson 143 2000 2009 36-45
3      Jamie Moyer 140 2000 2009 37-46
4     Roy Halladay 139 2000 2009 23-32
5       Tim Hudson 137 2000 2009 24-33
6       Roy Oswalt 137 2001 2009 23-31
7      CC Sabathia 136 2001 2009 20-28
8     Mark Buehrle 135 2000 2009 21-30
9      Greg Maddux 134 2000 2008 34-42
10    Mike Mussina 134 2000 2008 31-39


   78. Barnaby Jones Posted: December 09, 2013 at 11:54 PM (#4614843)
I hope Gregg Zaun brings his Z-game to the induction ceremony.
   79. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 10, 2013 at 02:28 AM (#4614879)
I find outrage over Kevin Brown amusing. Is anyone ever going to go to the Hall of Fame and think, "man, this place doesn't feel right without Kevin Brown"? He was an excellent pitcher, maybe he deserves it on merit, but, I mean, whatever, nobody is actually going to miss him in the HoF, and he was a #########. Halladay *meant* something.
   80. RollingWave Posted: December 10, 2013 at 03:05 AM (#4614885)
He has a HOF prime so the question is if the peak overwrites the relative lack of compiling stats.

IMHO though, the Cy Young in both league do a lot for his narrative, IF most of the backlog have sorted out by the time he enters the ballots (and it might, given that there isn't that many legit candidates retiring in the last couple year and probably not in the next couple.) I think his chances isn't that bad.
   81. vivaelpujols Posted: December 10, 2013 at 07:31 AM (#4614891)
Halladay has five seasons of 7+ fWAR. Since 1960, Pedro's done that, Clemens' done that, Fergie's done that, RJ's done that, Schilling's done that, Maddux's done that... and I believe that's it. Obviously that's a rather arbitrary stat and there are plenty of guys with a bunch of 6+ WAR seasons, but I think it helps to show that his career was basically all peak outside of 300 replacement level innings at the beginning and end of his career. Kevin Brown is probably his best comp and we all know that he got boned. Halladay seems to have a better reputation than Brown and also has the benefit of not being a direct comtemporary of Maddux, RJ, Pedro, Clemens.

Also all of those talking about counting stats are missing the major issue that pitcher's counting stats have and are going to continue to go down. It seems unlikely that any current pitcher will get past 230 wins any time soon, so adjusting to those standards, Halladay's 200 wins is hardly a blight for me. He also has twice as many wins as losses which is fantastic
'
   82. vivaelpujols Posted: December 10, 2013 at 07:36 AM (#4614892)
PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:15 PM (#4614691)


Orel Hershiser had two careers--he was a short-lived star before he tore up his shoulder, and then he had a pretty good ten-year career as a league average innings eater after. Hershiser falls short of the Hall of Fame line, but only just. If he'd waited another two years to blow out his shoulder he'd probably go in.


Yeah Hershiser is a terrible comp. By rWAR, Halladay has 4 seasons better than Orel's best. Like you say, Orel spent most of his career as a league averagish innings eater while Halladay is basically all peak.
   83. AndrewJ Posted: December 10, 2013 at 07:37 AM (#4614893)
Halladay's 200 wins is hardly a blight for me. He also has twice as many wins as losses which is fantastic

He has 232 Fibonacci Win Points, which is HOF-worthy.
   84. eddieot Posted: December 10, 2013 at 08:23 AM (#4614896)
Wow, I ignore baseball for one day and my favorite player retires. Happy trails Doc, and thanks for the memories! I'm incredibly bummed out right now.

I think he'll make it eventually, based on such a long peak and what he did despite being on crappy teams for most of his career. He's in my personal HOF for that postseason no-no. I've never had more fun at a ballpark than that day.

   85. Rants Mulliniks Posted: December 10, 2013 at 09:36 AM (#4614913)
I've always been partial to guys who dominate with guile, location and movement.


Halladay never had any eye popping strikeout totals, but up until the last 5 years or so, his fastball sat on 95. When he first came up he threw 98 regularly. I watched (on TV) his last start of the 1998 season (second career start). Even then at age 21 he had that pinpoint location, and when you combine that with a 98 mph fastball and a quick pace, it made for a great game to watch. It was over in an almost inconceivable hour and 45 minutes on 95 pitches, with the only blemish being a 2-out, 9th inning solo homer by Bobby Higginson.

When Halladay was on, which was most of the time, there weren't many players more enjoyable to watch. He took the game as seriously as anyone who has ever played, and just threw the damn ball without shaking off signs and stalling. You didn't see many batter flailing wildly as you would against Pedro or Randy Johnson, but Halladay always seemed to keep them off balance, and lived on the corners.

Later on when he learned the cutter, his peak velocity went down to the low-90s but he didn't lose a step.

He certainly belongs in the Hall. Relatively short career, but he's 26th in pitcher Black Ink, so he packed a lot into those 2750 innings.

He finished in the top 5 in CY voting 7 times, including 6 years straight from 2006-11. He led the league in complete games 7 times, SO/BB ratio 5 times, shutouts and IP 4 times each, fewest BB/9 three times, twice in wins and once in ERA+. He always seemed to have two or three meltdown starts a year, preventing him from winning any ERA titles.

Its really a shame the Blue Jays sucked so bad during his tenure, because I would have loved to have seen him pitch in the postseason for them. He is probably the best Blue Jay ever.
   86. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 10, 2013 at 09:50 AM (#4614923)
Seems like an easy call to me. Led all pitchers in WAR four times, and finished in the top five four other times. That's an incredible peak and prime. Three 20 wins seasons, led the league in IP four times, two Cy Youngs, seven top five finishes in ERA+, etc. As for career totals, his W-L and IP are almost identical to Pedro's. He wasn't as good of course, but he was close enough that his career totals probably won't be held against him, esp. given current pitcher usage.
   87. John Northey Posted: December 10, 2013 at 11:00 AM (#4614957)
So, how does Halladay do on things writers look for when voting for the HOF?
20 wins: 3 times, twice was leading the league
Cy Young: twice plus twice #2 and once #3

Strangely he never led in ERA and just once in ERA+.

When he retired he was the active leader in complete games by 30 - 67 vs 37 for Sabathia. Also lead in shutouts 20 to 13 (Hudson).

His having a perfect game plus the playoff no-no just add to the legend. Mix in the 'good guy' viewpoint of him, how he left Toronto on good terms somehow despite a messy situation, and you have the anti-Clemens/Bonds/PED group - IE: character helps his case which is nice for a change.

So lots for writers to enjoy there. Tons of peak stuff, a big playoff moment, old school endurance, and the nice story (star prospect, flopped, rebuilt, super-star, quick collapse at the end).
   88. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 10, 2013 at 11:04 AM (#4614962)
A fine point, John--there's a good chance Halladay gets romanticized in future years and decades as The Last Real Man.

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