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Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Royals Review: Revisiting the Beltran Trade

Ahh…who could forget the sweet fun of the “Complete Randomness? NO WAY!” front/back Tony Pena t-shirt era.

Of course, the complete randomness of 2003 threw everything off in everyone’s mind for at least another two years. Its hard to imagine now, but there was actually an eighteen month period (or so) when Allard Baird was being supported by not only casual fans, but the hardcores as well, including the national smart set. He’d always had good scouting bona fides and had had some success finding bit players in strange places. Now, he’d embraced OBP and a Beane-esque drafting strategy. He choose Calvin Pickering over Ken Harvey (for about five seconds) and on and on. The ironic thing is this: by the time he traded Beltran, just about everyone had given up on him again, even though in hindsight, its hard to imagine a better move he ever made. When the Royals collapsed again in 2004, we were back at square one: we can’t keep our good players, and we trade them for pennies on the dollar. It didn’t help either when it turned out that, again, Oakland was involved as one of the trading partners.

So, in honor of the Santana trade, in honor of all these bad memories, lets look back at the Beltran deal, when the Royals said goodbye to likely the best position player the team had had since George Brett. The way we were, 2004.

Repoz Posted: February 05, 2008 at 11:31 AM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, royals

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 05, 2008 at 03:58 PM (#2683964)
Allard's critical mistake was in demanding a 3B and catcher. A team in that position should have been asking for best talent available. But that's Allard for you.
   2. Alex_Lewis Posted: February 05, 2008 at 06:10 PM (#2684085)
How comes it that so many good writers are Royals fans?
   3. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: February 05, 2008 at 06:15 PM (#2684095)
Best works of art are always produced out of desperation and sheer misery.
   4. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: February 05, 2008 at 06:24 PM (#2684114)
The Beltran trade was that rarest of creatures, a ménage a trois in which everyone, Houston, Oakland and Kansas City, left happy.

As an A's fan, that trade didn't make me happy. Dotel was a whiff for the A's. Also, the player Beane really fleeced from the Royals was Mark Ellis.
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 05, 2008 at 06:25 PM (#2684115)
Best works of art are always produced out of desperation and sheer misery.

True. I think Pirates and Brewers Primates are among the best posters here. Cubs fans too.

Royals Review is awesome though, one of my favorite sites on the internets.
   6. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: February 05, 2008 at 06:30 PM (#2684125)
True. I think Pirates and Brewers Primates are among the best posters here. Cubs fans too.
Damn those precocious and over-achieving Diamondbacks.
   7. McCoy Posted: February 05, 2008 at 06:37 PM (#2684132)
FAns and writers of winners basically only get to crow about their teams success. Fans and writers of losing teams have to look deep into the game and try to come up with ways to solve the problem. Readers and contributers for this sight like to think they know what is the right and wrong way to do things in baseball thus we are drawn to writers have similar views.

Granted that is just a generality, for instance I think people like Posnanski not because he has the answers or anything like that but because he writes interesting stuff.
   8. AROM Posted: February 05, 2008 at 07:02 PM (#2684157)
I think its safe to say Allard Baird got more for half a season of Carlos Beltran than the Twins got for a year of Johan Santana.


Way too early to say that. If Carlos Gomez turns into the next Torii Hunter, Twins win the trade.

At the very least, the Royals received, roughly, nine seasons of adequate performance, at the league-minimum salary from Wood, Teahen and Buck in exchange for half a season of Carlos Beltran.


Yes, Royals did well on this deal. Beltran was gone one way or another. He had no remaining value to the Royals finishing out a last place 2004. The Twins gave up something, in that had they kept Santana for 2008 they might have been able to contend.
   9. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 05, 2008 at 07:33 PM (#2684193)
The problem though is the Royals got nine seasons of average performance when they probably could have found similar talent on the free agent market for not a whole lot of money. Just this season they found a guy who seems to mirror Buck quite a bit in Miguel Olivo.

When making a deal for a superstar like Beltran, you really need to get an All-Star caliber player in return. Getting two adequate starters will help you tread water, but to really move your franchise forward, you need to land an impact player.
   10. AROM Posted: February 05, 2008 at 07:47 PM (#2684208)
If they wanted more for Beltran they should have traded him before the 2003 season.
   11. JPWF13 Posted: February 05, 2008 at 08:01 PM (#2684222)
Way too early to say that. If Carlos Gomez turns into the next Torii Hunter, Twins win the trade.


I'm not a Gomez fan, but I could easily see Gomez as Hunter, with twice the steals and 60% of the homes runs... that's not quite as good as Hunter...
   12. spycake Posted: February 05, 2008 at 09:07 PM (#2684283)
While you can't compare the environments for deals precisely, I think its safe to say Allard Baird got more for half a season of Carlos Beltran than the Twins got for a year of Johan Santana

I don't think it's that "safe" to conclude this. I think Gomez' could, without any significant improvement, perform similarly to Buck -- mediocre offense, solid defense at an up-the-middle position. If he improves even slightly (plate discipline and/or power) he should be a fair sight better. There isn't a good match for Teahan in the Santana trade, but ultimately he hasn't provided much value to the Royals other than 2/3 of a season in 2006. At his age, Mulvey is a fair bet to provide at least as much ML value as Wood, probably more if he can maintain his lower HR rate and higher K rate. Humber seems like a worse bet, but with a better K rate and possible improvements as he recovers further from his surgery, he could be a legitimately solid reliever and not just a swingman. And Guerra has more upside than anybody else in these deals, which should count for something (at least until he flames out!).

And of course, if we examine the "environments" in which the deals were made, the 2008-2010 Twins should derive more value from a few average role-players than the 2004-2007 Royals. They are indeed close, closer than I'd care to admit as a Twins fan, but it's far from clear that the Royals' return is greater than the Twins'.
   13. Zach Posted: February 06, 2008 at 04:59 AM (#2684541)
The irony is that even though that particular trade worked out ok, it also marked the point where it made more sense to blow up the Royals' roster than to build around it. With no Beltran and a hurt Sweeney, who on that roster would you actually want to keep?
   14. Crispix Attacks Posted: February 06, 2008 at 05:44 AM (#2684556)
With no Beltran and a hurt Sweeney, who on that roster would you actually want to keep?

Why, with all those young hotshot starters like Chris George, Jimmy Gobble, Denny Bautista and Kyle Snyder, surely at least their pitching would be ample and they just needed to find some hitters who would keep them in games.
   15. Crispix Attacks Posted: February 06, 2008 at 05:49 AM (#2684560)
But anyway, Carlos Gomez will have trouble becoming as big of a star as Torii Hunter, because he has such a boring name. He should change it to "Jharlos Jhomez" or "Ambiorix Gomez" or "Radhames Spoone".

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