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1. Mike Webber Posted: February 27, 2012 at 11:42 PM (#4070069)a) he wouldn't be arb eligible until 2015
b) what do you think he'll hit
Half-time defensive "god" Jeff Mathis made just $3.2 in his first 2 arb years. The pretty good hitting Carlos Ruiz made $4.6 in his first 2 arb years. Yadier made $5.1; Soto will make $7.3 (signed after one of his good years); Miguel Montero made $5.2; Martin made $9; Suzuki will make $8.4.
So, ummmm ... as soon as somebody can explain why Suzuki will be $8.4, I'm gonna call $7 M for Perez probably a bit of an overpay. But of course with 3 years of inflation, $5 M could easily be $6.5 M. Barring injury, probably a cromulent deal but it doesn't look like a bargain. Unless of course he puts up a 115 OPS+ or something, that would be pretty good.
Oh wait, I suppose with the 3 years minimum, they're only paying him about $5.5 for his first 2 arb years, that looks better. (Contract probably structured so that he makes more than the min over the next 3 years but that's not gonna make a big difference.)
If not, it seems odd to worry about locking him up after 150 PAs.
The Royals hold club options, with no buy-out clauses, for $3.75 million in 2017, $5 million in 2018 and $6 million in 2019. The deal contains contract escalators that kick in from 2017-19 for awards and achievements from 2012-16.
With three option years, including two years after Perez would hit free agency, this has the potential to be a fantastic deal by the Royals.
With all due disclaimers about small sample size, Perez had a huge cup of coffee last year. .331/.361/.473 for an OPS+ of 128 from a 21 year old defense-first catcher.
The Royals think so. You'll probably hear as much about Perez from team sources as any prospect besides Hosmer. They moved Wil Myers off of catcher last spring to clear Perez's path to the majors.
Some of the prospect hype missed him because going into last season he had never played above high A, while his cup of coffee last year just barely used up his rookie status. But if you follow the Royals, they probably talk him up more than anybody except Hosmer.
Tough to say. He doesn't make prospect lists because he had a pretty meteoric rise last year, and he's a glove-first catcher with a mediocre bat, and those guys don't make prospect lists. I think this is a pretty good deal for the Royals though. At the very worst they have a great defense, no hit backup catcher for about market rate for a backup catcher (his backup Brayan Pena, still under the reserve clause, will make $875k this year and he's an awful defender). At the very best they'll have a Kurt Suzuki-type catcher for less than $4 mill AAV. The three club options give them team a ton of flexibility. For whatever its worth it also sends a message to guys like Moustakas and Hosmer that the team is willing to commit to players (at least the cheaper ones - the team is supposedly still far apart with Alex Gordon on a potential 4-6 year extension).
From the comments:
And here's Fangraphs:
I guess it really comes down to whether or not you think Salvador Perez will be able to stick in the big leagues at all for five years. The only way this is a bad deal is if it quickly becomes clear he's not a big leaguer.
Sure, but a guy like that never costs you much in arb anyway. I guess I just don't see the urgency, unless you think he can mash.
Could they trade him to Japan?
Of course, but like I said that's probably worst case scenario (barring injury). If he becomes the starting catcher, like many think he will, they'll save millions. The urgency is in getting him before he boosts his value. The sooner you ink him, the lower the cost.
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