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Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Royals sign starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie to a three-year contract through 2015


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   1. salvomania Posted: November 20, 2012 at 02:41 PM (#4306856)
Without even clicking though to see the $$$, I'm glad the team I root for didn't make this deal.

This seems like a tough move to get excited about if this is your team.
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 20, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4306865)
Three years $25 mill. Its kinda backloaded though, only $5 million this year. Buster Olney says the Royals are talking about trading minor leaguers for another SP.

Money's not bad, three years is going to burn them, and I think Guthrie is going to decline pretty quickly.
   3. BDC Posted: November 20, 2012 at 03:01 PM (#4306873)
As I said in the Dugout, Guthrie is one of 29 major-league pitchers to throw as many as 750 innings over the past four seasons, which is a good thing. He is 29th on the list in ERA over those four seasons, so that's a somewhat less good thing.
   4. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: November 20, 2012 at 03:05 PM (#4306876)
Three years $25 mill.

That seems like a lot of money (and years) for a guy like Guthrie at his age. His success is almost entirely based on control right now, and the Royals are a decent but not great defensive team in a neutral park. It could turn out okay, or it could turn out to be a disaster, but it seems unlikely that it will turn out to be a steal.
   5. puck Posted: November 20, 2012 at 03:13 PM (#4306882)
The new market inefficiency is signing flyball pitchers who bombed in Colorado.
   6. Topher Posted: November 20, 2012 at 03:29 PM (#4306895)
A backloaded contract is kinda interesting for a team that currently has a lot of pre-arbitration players.

   7. SG Posted: November 20, 2012 at 03:34 PM (#4306900)
It seems like a reasonable deal to me. If they get 5 wins from Guthrie over three years that probably pays for the contract, and that doesn't seem like a reach.

The Royals really need starting pitching desperately. Guthrie's not going to win them the division, but he's a better starting pitcher than anyone they currently have on hand.
   8. Xander Posted: November 20, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4306907)
He's been in the bottom 10 in xFIP each of the last three seasons and he is the third worst cumulatively over that time span. A 1-year deal is barely excusable. Giving him three years is just lazy.
   9. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 20, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4306927)
Jeez. I'd thought he'd be lucky if he got 2/$12M. This feels like a massive overpay, even considering his durability.
   10. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 20, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4306928)
On the other hand, Dave Cameron hates the signing, so maybe it's not all that bad? Or is this one of those "stopped clock" situations?
   11. Steve N Posted: November 20, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4307023)
Guthrie is nothing special, maybe a solid #4 starter. That, alas, is a serious upgrade for the Royals. The park being relatively unfriendly to the long ball helps a bit. I would have been happier with 2 years.
   12. Suff Posted: November 20, 2012 at 06:31 PM (#4307082)
Rosenthal reported that Guthrie was excited because "KC defense was as good as I have ever pitched in front of." Then people pointed out that the Royals finished last in Defensive Efficiency in the league.

I had read the argument that the Royals' apparent bad defense was more about bad pitching, because of high Line Drive % or something like that, so I wondered if Guthrie's experience was different.

The team BABIP was .314, but Guthrie's was .271 with the Royals. Guthrie's LD% was actually higher than the team average, though.
   13. Davo Dozier Posted: November 20, 2012 at 06:59 PM (#4307105)
Jeremy Guthrie, 2011-2012: 61 games started. 5.3 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9.
Chris Volstad, 2011-2012: 50 games started. 5.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9.

The Royals DFAed Chris Volstad earlier this afternoon to make room on the roster for their 25 million dollar man Jeremy Guthrie.
   14. Curse of the Andino Posted: November 20, 2012 at 07:57 PM (#4307146)
I really like and respect Guthrie as a person... especially as he's no longer on the Orioles and brought us Jason Hammel (and Lindstrom, who became Joe Saunders for a spell).

Guthrie did pitch some good games in Baltimore when he had more of a fastball. Games like the Mother's Day Massacre, though that was our manager's fault more than anything...
   15. spycake Posted: November 20, 2012 at 10:07 PM (#4307209)
Jeremy Guthrie has led the league three times in various pitching statistics...
   16. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 20, 2012 at 10:20 PM (#4307214)
Guthrie was the guy who was famous in Baltimore for riding his bicycle everywhere, right?

My theory is that in Colorado he got demoralized by the lack of oxygen and resulting difficulty maintaining his normal bike routine. In the flat plains of KC he is reenergized.
   17. puck Posted: November 20, 2012 at 10:28 PM (#4307218)
My theory is that in Colorado he got demoralized by the lack of oxygen and resulting difficulty maintaining his normal bike routine. In the flat plains of KC he is reenergized.

Funny you should mention that. He missed a start or two after a bike accident on the way to the stadium.
   18. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 20, 2012 at 10:37 PM (#4307220)
Oh! I didn't catch that news. (from April 2012)
   19. beer on a stick Posted: November 20, 2012 at 11:33 PM (#4307245)
"My theory is that in Colorado he got demoralized by the lack of oxygen and resulting difficulty maintaining his normal bike routine. In the flat plains of KC he is reenergized."

KC is pretty hilly. Denver is much flatter than KC.
   20. steagles Posted: November 21, 2012 at 03:22 AM (#4307302)
Buster Olney says the Royals are talking about trading minor leaguers for another SP.
is this where i go to start the kyle kendrick for wil myers rumor?
   21. MM1f Posted: November 21, 2012 at 04:16 AM (#4307304)
Yeah, this is a pretty rough deal.

On the other hand, good for Jeremy Guthrie. There aren't many starting pitchers who, despite being first round picks, don't become real big leaguers until their age 28 seasons and still manage to get a three year deal once they finally hit free agency.

Its nice to see nice guys who work hard get lucky and have some plutocrat owner overpay them.
   22. Zach Posted: November 21, 2012 at 06:04 AM (#4307307)
I'm conflicted. I liked him in KC last year, but I don't like a three year commitment to an aging pitcher with a marginal strikeout rate.

Looking at his record, I see that he's had a fair amount of success with K/9 in the 5-6 range. So at least at some point, he was able to get people out with junk.

The money per year seems fair, and it's a rising market.

My usual criterion for evaluating free agent contracts is whether or not you could trade the contract and get something in return. If Guthrie pitches well this year, 2/16 would be a fair deal that would probably be a middling return.

I'd say it's a fair-ish deal, with the Royals picking up more of the downside risk than I'd prefer.

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