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Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Rubin: deGrom for NL rookie of the year?

Curtain risin’ on a new age
See deGrom’s still waitin’...

Jacob deGrom for rookie of the year?

Why not? It’s not like there is a runaway candidate this year.

So far, the monthly NL rookie of the month winners have been Arizona’s Chris Owings, St. Louis’ Kolten Wong and Cincinnati’s Billy Hamilton.

DeGrom limited the Seattle Mariners to one run on five hits in seven innings in a 3-1 win Tuesday. He improved to 4-5 with a 3.01 ERA.

Showing no ill effects from a nine-day layoff because of the All-Star break, deGrom now has a 1.59 ERA in six starts since June 21. He has not allowed a home run in his last 52 2/3 innings.

“He’s always flown under the radar. He still is,” Terry Collins said. “This guy has got numbers to match up with any rookie in the league, and you never hear his name mentioned.”

 

 

Repoz Posted: July 23, 2014 at 07:31 AM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets

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   1. RMc is a fine piece of cheese Posted: July 23, 2014 at 08:13 AM (#4756159)
I was going to write something snarky like, "Billy Hamilton would win the RoY easily if he could just hit the ball occasionally", because I assumed he was still playing like crap, like he did in April. Lo and behold, Hamilton hit .327 in June (aided by a .371 BAbip, but still). He's raised the OPS+ to over 100, and dWAR likes his work in CF. If he keeps it up, and steals 60+ bases, he'll win RoY for sure.
   2. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: July 23, 2014 at 09:08 AM (#4756171)
deGrom has been a pleasant surprise, Syndergaard pitched very well in AAA last night, and Wheeler has been better recently. Very excited about the potential of this pitching staff next year with Harvey coming back.

Dilson Herrera is a 20 year middle infielder who is tearing up AA, hitting .359/.421/.581 in about 130 plate appearances. Mets have to be very pleased with his development so far.
   3. J in the Slope Posted: July 23, 2014 at 09:26 AM (#4756177)
Not only is Dilson only 20, but I believe he is the youngest player in his league as well. And has an OPS of 1.002.

I may be reversing my "do not trade all-star Daniel Murphy" stance. Oh, the allure of shiny and new (and cheap).
   4. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 23, 2014 at 10:32 AM (#4756195)
NL Rookie bWAR leaderboard, for kicks and giggles:

Billy Hamilton 2.6
Chris Owings 2.0
Jacob deGrom 1.9
Kolten Wong 1.5
Odrisamer Despaigne 1.4
David Peralta 1.2
Tommy Kahnle 1.2
Neil Ramirez 1.2
Jesse Hahn 1.0
Arismendy Alcantara 0.9
   5. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: July 23, 2014 at 10:33 AM (#4756196)
A lot of Herrera's numbers come from the BABIP Fairy though. He's got decent pop and takes a few walks, but right now he strikes out too much to expect him to hit more than, taking a stab, .260. If his numbers are .259/.321/.481, with decent to good D, that's a more than cromulent 2B, though I doubt he has that kind of power.
   6. Urkel's Boner Posted: July 23, 2014 at 10:34 AM (#4756197)
I was going to write something snarky like, "Billy Hamilton would win the RoY easily if he could just hit the ball occasionally", because I assumed he was still playing like crap, like he did in April. Lo and behold, Hamilton hit .327 in June (aided by a .371 BAbip, but still). He's raised the OPS+ to over 100, and dWAR likes his work in CF. If he keeps it up, and steals 60+ bases, he'll win RoY for sure.


Anyone know what the rookie record is for caught stealing in a season? Hamilton is on pace for 26, which would top the 25 times Vince Coleman got caught in his rookie season.
   7. AROM Posted: July 23, 2014 at 10:43 AM (#4756198)
Looks like it was George Burns with 35 (in 75 attempts) in 1913. He had 35 games, 79 PA before that season, so he was still considered a rookie.

Only Cobb and Rickey were ever caught more in a season.
   8. billyshears Posted: July 23, 2014 at 10:52 AM (#4756201)
I think we can't be anything but pleased with the developments of the Mets young players and prospects this year. At the MLB level, deGrom looks greeat, Wheeler is coming along (his stuff still looks great), d'Arnaud is really picking it up and Duda may even be a real-live average MLB first baseman. At the minor league level, Herrera, Nimmo, Matz and Plawecki have broken out. Syndegaard's superficial numbers aren't great, but his ratios are strong. Flores continues to rake. Amed Rosario, Jhoan Urena and Marcos Molina are a solid next wave of lower level prospects. Even Wulmer Beccerra looks like he is turning in to a prospect.

I have the sense that the Mets are very, very close to becoming a very good, exciting young team (knocks on wood), but I do think they are going to have to make one or two significant moves to get there. Trading Murphy is one move they have to make - giving the Mets distribution of talent, there is no way he is the Mets' long term 2b. In the offseason, the Mets should make a major run at Tulowitzki - I think something like a pitcher (Syndegaard, Wheeler or deGrom) + Plawecki + third lower profile prospect should be in the ballpark of what gets a deal done.
   9. billyshears Posted: July 23, 2014 at 10:58 AM (#4756204)
A lot of Herrera's numbers come from the BABIP Fairy though. He's got decent pop and takes a few walks, but right now he strikes out too much to expect him to hit more than, taking a stab, .260. If his numbers are .259/.321/.481, with decent to good D, that's a more than cromulent 2B, though I doubt he has that kind of power.


I don't really agree - he's on pace for around 100Ks this season, which is a fairly mild number nowadays. Granted, it's hard to hit .330 with 100Ks, but I don't think that relegates him to a .260 hitter either. Also, considering the fact that he is very young and has been improving rapidly, I think it's fair to expect reasonable improvement in his contact rate.
   10. Urkel's Boner Posted: July 23, 2014 at 10:59 AM (#4756205)
Looks like it was George Burns with 35 (in 75 attempts) in 1913. He had 35 games, 79 PA before that season, so he was still considered a rookie.

Only Cobb and Rickey were ever caught more in a season.


Going through the top caught stealing seasons, I also noticed Del Pratt with 30 CS in 54 attempts his 1912 rookie season. Ouch! I guess it makes sense that the dead ball era would be the height of steal-catching.
   11. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: July 23, 2014 at 11:02 AM (#4756206)
I was about to ask if Polanco was chopped liver but he's only got a 0.2 WAR.
   12. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 23, 2014 at 11:07 AM (#4756208)
deGrom is, naturally, also boosting his case with a .280/.308/.320 batting line on the year. Every run counts!
   13. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 23, 2014 at 11:10 AM (#4756212)
Odrisamer Despaigne 1.4


WTF is this guy?

…A Cuban veteran who's made 5 starts for the Padres, with 1.31 ERA and a bad strikeout rate.

(EDIT: I thought he was from the Mexican League but he's not. Carry on.)
   14. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 23, 2014 at 11:17 AM (#4756216)
i was concerned that hamilton would have the bat knocked out of his hand on hard stuff inside. and it does. but if you throw inside and it's at the knees he has a golf swing that can generate power. i know this firsthand as the brewers have given up FOUR of his homers and everyone is a carbon copy of hamilton hitting a 9 iron into the first row of the seats.

he has the speed but teams are certainly gameplanning for him attempting to steal. hamilton needs to refine his craft. when he's just RUNNING he's the wind around the bases

full credit to the young man for making himself into such a good cf so quickly. he's very, very good which demonstrates he has natural baseball instincts
   15. JE (Jason) Posted: July 23, 2014 at 11:18 AM (#4756219)
Looks like it was George Burns with 35 (in 75 attempts) in 1913.

Don't you mean Nathan Birnbaum?

(Supposedly, he chose George Burns as his new name to honor George H. and George L.)
   16. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 23, 2014 at 11:25 AM (#4756221)
#13--Despaigne was 4 outs from a "no-hitter"* his last start.

*Against the Mets. In Petco.
   17. formerly dp Posted: July 23, 2014 at 12:12 PM (#4756256)
A nice and balanced article about Tejada that casts him in a fairly positive light. I am in the camp that Flores should be given a trial at SS this year, but I think that Tejada has a bit of a steadying influence on the infield, especially with Murph playing 2B, and that makes taking the defensive hit tougher.

DeGrom looked fairly borderline through his first few starts-- amazing that he has jumped to the top of the heap so quickly, didn't expect him to be ahead of Montero, Mejia, and Thor by the end of 2014. After the terrible start to the season their pitchers had at the plate, it's also refreshing to have someone up there who isn't a total loss.
   18. Conor Posted: July 23, 2014 at 12:22 PM (#4756266)
I have to say I'm very pleased with the progress of the Mets this year and I'm beginning to think next year they could be a really solid team. They need to figure out SS and a corner OF spot, but at the other 6 spots in the lineup I see at least a competent player there for next year, and they should have enough pitching depth, even with trades to fill the lineup holes, to have a good rotation.
   19. SoCalDemon Posted: July 23, 2014 at 12:58 PM (#4756286)
If he can hit with any sort of power, I am not sure that a .350+ BABIP is that crazy for Hamilton. Yeah, its not going to be .371, but if he can just keep up his .333 for the season, with the amount of power he is showing, and his defense, he could turn out to be very valuable (and that is assuming he doesn't fine-tune his base stealing, which some players just never figure out).
   20. formerly dp Posted: July 23, 2014 at 01:05 PM (#4756289)
(and that is assuming he doesn't fine-tune his base stealing, which some players just never figure out)
I don't know what sort of instruction they've done on this front already, but this seems very teachable. Getting a former great basestealer in to tutor Hamilton during the offseason couldn't be too difficult.
   21. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: July 23, 2014 at 01:10 PM (#4756293)
I don't know what sort of instruction they've done on this front already, but this seems very teachable. Getting a former great basestealer in to tutor Hamilton during the offseason couldn't be too difficult.


It seems to me that a lot of of his CS this year are situations where he's been picked off. That seems like an area where he could improve his skills.

   22. Lassus Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:10 PM (#4756328)
We have a pitcher named Thor?
   23. morineko Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:15 PM (#4756329)
Mets pitchers were hitless until they called deGrom up. I see the Las Vegas 51s are doing pretty well on the pitchers hitting front, which is good because in the PCL NL affiliates use the DH when they play AL affiliates.
   24. formerly dp Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:24 PM (#4756334)
We have a pitcher named Thor?
Yeah, but since he was turned into a woman last week, there're questions about her eligibility to play in the majors.
   25. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:29 PM (#4756338)
24--Opposing teams will just bunt for base hits against her all the time.
   26. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:37 PM (#4756345)
Not only is Dilson only 20, but I believe he is the youngest player in his league as well. And has an OPS of 1.002.


Sigh, in 133 PAs...

He's at .323/.375/.460 on the year- which is a very nice set of numbers for a 20 year old 2B in the FSL and Eastern League (FSL average this year is .257/.322/.367, EL is .263/.329/.396)

Also his K rate is down a good deal from 2013 when he hit .267/.334/.416 (in the Sallie League, average: .248/.322/.364)

His .267/.334/.416 Sallie League line was comfortably above league, in fact the 2014 EL is far and away the best offensive environment that Dilson has played in- his career minor league mark is only .295/.362/.452 but in fact he's hit comfortably above league every year

   27. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:48 PM (#4756353)
We have a pitcher named Thor?

Syndergaard.
   28. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:52 PM (#4756355)
Looking at Fangraphs, the top 10 base stealers since 2012 all have high BABIPs, the worst is Davis at .318, best is Trout .375. If you take out the guys with power like Trout, there is a bunch of no power guys in the .320-.330 range like Altuve, Revere, etc. But none have Hamiltons speed, so .340-.350 BABIP is not unreasonable for him.
   29. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 23, 2014 at 04:24 PM (#4756448)
Looking at Fangraphs, the top 10 base stealers since 2012 all have high BABIPs, the worst is Davis at .318, best is Trout .375. If you take out the guys with power like Trout, there is a bunch of no power guys in the .320-.330 range like Altuve, Revere, etc. But none have Hamiltons speed, so .340-.350 BABIP is not unreasonable for him.


There are several things wrong with this, from the sample size issue to ignoring Hamilton's own track record

#1: The top 20 SB seasons of the last 20 years:
Year Player SB BABIP
2007 Jose Reyes 78 .303
1996 Kenny Lofton 75 .346
1997 Brian Hunter 74 .325
1999 Tony Womack 72 .306
2009 Jacoby Ellsbury 70 .332
2004 Scott Podsednik 70 .275
2010 Juan Pierre 68 .295
2008 Willy Taveras 68 .298
1999 Roger Cedeno 66 .395
1998 Rickey Henderson 66 .275
1996 Tom Goodwin 66 .331
2003 Juan Pierre 65 .321
2007 Juan Pierre 64 .311
2006 Jose Reyes 64 .320
2005 Chone Figgins 62 .334
2000 Luis Castillo 62 .395
1997 Chuck Knoblauch 62 .326
2011 Michael Bourn 61 .372
2009 Michael Bourn 61 .367
2009 Carl Crawford 60 .346
2005 Jose Reyes 60 .300
1997 Tony Womack 60 .327
1994 Kenny Lofton 60 .379

Sure the really fast guys TEND to have higher BABIPs- but there is a LOT of individual variance

For instance Jose Reyes was a really fast guy with some pop but his BABIPs tend to be quite ordinary- because he pops the damn ball up a lot.

Which brings us to Hamilton, his BABIP was .406 in A ball, .375 in AA and .311 in AAA
looking at that progression it would appear odd for him to pop up with a.340 in the MLB

Of course he's a young guy, and maybe it'll turn out that his one year in AAA was a negative outlier
   30. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 23, 2014 at 04:30 PM (#4756455)
full credit to the young man for making himself into such a good cf so quickly. he's very, very good which demonstrates he has natural baseball instincts


If he's a good defensive CF that gives him a huge advantage over Vince Coleman (probably Hamilton's best minor league comp)- despite his speed Coleman was never better than average in LF (poor arm , no instincts)
   31. RMc is a fine piece of cheese Posted: July 23, 2014 at 06:04 PM (#4756523)
Getting a former great basestealer in to tutor Hamilton during the offseason couldn't be too difficult.


Is Larkin (379 SB as a Red, 3rd in club history) back from Brazil yet?

Fun fact: Hamilton's 52 SB is already 80th in Reds history. (He only needs 44 more to climb into the top 50.)
   32. Walt Davis Posted: July 23, 2014 at 06:13 PM (#4756533)
If he can hit with any sort of power, I am not sure that a .350+ BABIP is that crazy for Hamilton.

1. Yep, if Hamilton is a plus CF as he's been this year, then he'll be an average player almost no matter how poorly he hits. That is 7-10 runs on the bases, 5-15 runs on defense makes up for a lot of crappy hitting.

2. The shocker so far is the power. If he maintains that, he's golden and could be Kenny Lofton (adjusted to the higher K, lower BA era)

3. The BABIP is an interesting question. Seems obvious a guy with this kind of speed should have a good BABIP. And they are almost always above average. But like #29, when I looked at some of these guys, the numbers weren't particularly good -- usually around 310. Willie Wilson was a top one, he ended up around 330 for his career. But Coleman, Womack, Pettis and the other guys I looked at weren't so much. (going off memory)

I assume BABIP is primarily a function of LD rate. BA on GB is presumably related to speed and handedness but even for those guys I wouldn't expect it to be particularly high.

I'm not sure how far back we have GB data (not far I don't think) but for guys with 3000+ PA, there are three guys with a BAGB over 300 -- McCutchen, Braun and noted speedster Jonny Gomes. The next guys are Weeks, Pence, Ichiro, Holliday, J Upton, Hanley, Miguel Cabrera and BJ Upton. Willie Bloomquist is next at 283 then we get some speedsters with Crawford, Gomez, Kemp ... and the great Eric Byrnes. Dan Uggla of all people pops up. We seem to have the second half of Brett Butler's career as the oldest guy we've got GB data on and he hit 273. Bourn is at 271, we've got Coleman from 88-97 and he was at 270. Reyes 267, McGee 266, Larkin 265.

Surprisingly Womack is down at 223, the same as the back half of Raines's career.

So maybe speed doesn't have that much to do with it. Plenty of sluggers with good BA on GB, plenty of normal players there too, plenty of speedsters at the lower end of things. I suppose few of the guys at the top lumber but they aren't Willie Wilson.

FWIW, Trout is hitting 344 on GB. Of course he's hitting 313 on FB and over 700 on LD too. This just in, Mike Trout is a pretty good ballplayer, your team would do well to have him.
   33. cardsfanboy Posted: July 23, 2014 at 06:18 PM (#4756537)
NL Rookie bWAR leaderboard, for kicks and giggles:

Billy Hamilton 2.6
Chris Owings 2.0
Jacob deGrom 1.9
Kolten Wong 1.5
Odrisamer Despaigne 1.4
David Peralta 1.2
Tommy Kahnle 1.2
Neil Ramirez 1.2
Jesse Hahn 1.0
Arismendy Alcantara 0.9


I'm pretty sure NL ROY is Billy Hamilton's at this point, he would have to have a pretty dismal second half to lose it. Exciting young player, who is putting up performance over expectations in regards to his defense and his bat. Even a drop off there wouldn't hurt his reputation at the end of the year.

De Grom, Peralta, and Wong are the strongest bets to win rookie of the month for July, still a week to go, hopefully Matheny plays Wong in the few games that we have to help him out.
   34. Walt Davis Posted: July 23, 2014 at 09:41 PM (#4756652)
For those not keeping track of the Cub prospects, the shocking thing about the .9 WAR for Alcantara is that it comes in just 43 PA. The offense is solid but presumably the ISO is not sustainable -- 282/326/590 with 7 XBH in those 43 PA. He's also credited with saving 4 runs with his glove already.

If he keeps this up, he'll make Trout look like Ryan Braun! :-)
   35. Spahn Insane Posted: July 23, 2014 at 10:32 PM (#4756676)
Not that I think Alcantara's current WAR pace is sustainable, but damn is it nice to see him on the roster instead of Darwin Barney.
   36. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 24, 2014 at 12:28 AM (#4756723)
Which brings us to Hamilton, his BABIP was .406 in A ball, .375 in AA and .311 in AAA
looking at that progression it would appear odd for him to pop up with a.340 in the MLB


To me the outlier is the .311 BABIP over 600 PAs after 1,600 PAs at .385.

Maybe being 5 years younger than the AAA player required adjustment on his part.
   37. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:46 AM (#4756775)
Getting a former great basestealer in to tutor Hamilton during the offseason couldn't be too difficult.

Is Larkin (379 SB as a Red, 3rd in club history) back from Brazil yet?


Griffey Sr. managed Hamilton in Bakersfield and reportedly worked with him quite a bit on stealing. Eric Davis is a roving instructor or something in the system. I don't think Larkin has been terribly involved.

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